RMN’s photo editor shares some pictures from this week’s volleyball & softball contests.

1. All of the Lights

Missouri players watch a highlight reel before a game against Alabama on Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, at the Hearnes Center in Columbia. (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation)

Mizzou Athletics never fails to bring the theatrics before all games— look at this great lighting before the Alabama game! Maybe it even helped them take down the Tide.

2. Iliff Illumination

Missouri’s Jordan Iliff (4) prepares for the serve during a game against Alabama on Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, at the Hearnes Center in Columbia. (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation)

Mizzou’s star, Jordan Iliff, never backs down from any opponent. Here, she eagerly awaits the Alabama serve.

3. Chaos at the Hearnes

The Missouri swim & dive team celebrates the volleyball team winning their first set during a game against Alabama on Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, at the Hearnes Center in Columbia. (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation)

Friday’s game was “Athletes’ Night” at the Hearnes, and every team, from soccer to basketball, turned out. (Football was missing, I’m still trying to figure out why that was.) But the star of the show was the swim & dive team, who took off an article of clothing each time Mizzou got ahead of Alabama in a set. By the time Missouri won the set (they only needed three) the swimmers were wearing nothing but Speedos and going bonkers over the team.

4. I got it!

Missouri’s Maya Sands (3) and Missouri’s Kiaraliz Perez Catala (15) can’t decide who’ll hit the ball during a game against Alabama on Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, at the Hearnes Center in Columbia. (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation)

Maya Sands and Kiaraliz Perez Catala apparently couldn’t decide who would hit the ball in the third set, so they both went for it! Redundancy, it’s important.

5. SEC! SEC! SEC!

Missouri head coach Dawn Sullivan watches her players during a game against Alabama on Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, at the Hearnes Center in Columbia. (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation)

Friday’s game was the volleyball SEC opener for Missouri. The Southeastern Conference has been no challenge for Dawn Sullivan, who won SEC Coach of the Year in 2023, and went .500 in the tough conference last year. This year, she is batting .600, with wins over LSU, Alabama, and Tennessee.

6. To the Diamond

Missouri third baseman Saniya Hill throws down an Illinois runner in a fall-ball game against Illinois on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024, at the Mizzou Softball Stadium.

Missouri fans got a small look at the MU softball team on Saturday’s “Braggin’ Rights” rivalry scrimmage, with new faces like freshman third baseman Saniya Hill in action. The Tigers ultimately took ownership of said rights, winning 9-3.

7. Old & New

Missouri’s Kara Daly throws down an Illinois runner in a fall-ball game on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024, at the Mizzou Softball Stadium. (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation)

Tiger fans also got to see some favorites from last year’s team on the diamond once again; though several beloved seniors graduated, some stars are still here, like Kara Daly, who showed out with her impressive infield defense from both third base and shortstop.

8. Back to the Hearnes

Tennessee’s Hayden Kubik (33) blocks a shot by Missouri’s Marina Crownover (22) during a game on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, at the Hearnes Center in Columbia, Mo. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

Back to volleyball, the Tigers faced unranked but receiving votes Tennessee team on Sunday, and it was a hard-fought battle, going to five sets. Here, Tennessee’s Hayden Kubik (33) blocks Marina Crownover’s (22) shot right back at her.

9. The Dagger

Missouri’s Mychael Vernon (19) and Regan Haith (11) deliver the game-winning block of Tennessee’s Hayden Kubik (33) to win the fifth set on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, at the Hearnes Center in Columbia, Mo. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

The game ended in spectacular fashion, as Mychael Vernon and Regan Haith blocked a Volunteer shot to win the fifth set and the game. Here’s the shot of that crucial play, captured from behind the Missouri side.

10. Victor of the Vols

Missouri’s Regan Haith (11) celebrates her game-winning block to win the fifth set of a game against Tennessee on Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024, at the Hearnes Center in Columbia, Mo. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

Who loves a nice celebration shot! Here’s Haith celebrating her game-winning block with the rest of the team. Tigers will next face Miss. State next Sunday and then go on a stretch of road games, hopefully carrying with them this same energy.

Honorable Mention (Karen’s Pick)

Missouri’s Colleen Finney (1) celebrates making a kill during a game against Alabama on Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, at the Hearnes Center in Columbia. (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation)

We’d be remiss not to include a reaction shot from Colleen Finney, who gives some of best facial expressions around.

Previewing the Georgia Bulldogs Men’s Basketball team. How will Mike White get Georgia over the hump?

The 2023-24 season was another unkind one for the Georgia Bulldogs. They won 20 games, but reaching that benchmark required 37 games and an extended trip to the NIT. It was also the best season in Athens since 2018 if you’re gauging success by KenPom.com ratings. But that’s how things have been going for Georgia basketball fans since Mark Fox was fired after that 2018 season.

Tom Crean failed to get things going, and Mike White has had two unremarkable seasons. Even under Mark Fox, the Bulldogs have only had one top-60 finish in KenPom over the past nine years. And it’s been since 2003 when Georgia last finished inside the top 30.

So last season, White tried to mix youth with some experienced transfers in hopes of bridging his roster to a season where some younger and talented reinforcements could come in and get them over the hump.

Other SEC Previews:

• 15. LSU Tigers, 5-13
• 16. South Carolina Gamecocks, 5-13

Georgia Bulldogs

Last season: 20 – 17 (6-12 in conference) #84

The Masses Prediction: 10th in conference, 8 – 10

Analytics Average: 14th in conference, 63rd overall

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

HEAD COACH: Mike White | 3rd Season, 36-33

What does Georgia basketball want to be? It’s a question nearly as perplexing as who Mike White is.

White hails from a prominent athletics family. His father was an athletic director, and he has three siblings working in athletics administration, including the AD at Tennessee and Florida Atlantic. He’s been at Georgia for three seasons, Florida for seven seasons before, and Louisiana Tech for four years. However, despite being in the public eye for as long as he has been, White’s demeanor and interactions with the press are as interesting as his name.

The pedigree alone is intriguing, but White’s foray into head coaching at the high-major level has been largely disappointing. Florida basketball’s decline under White’s stewardship wasn’t some immediate splash of cold water. Instead, it was a slow decline toward the middle. Then came White’s move to Georgia, a program largely devoid of success for the better part of 20 years, where basketball is very much second fiddle to football. So, perhaps this is where White can sustain things a bit?

A nondescript name, running a non-descript program, out of the spotlight of a more premier program. It’s a program where it seems the main goal is, Don’t embarrass us by going 6-26 like Tom Crean!

Through two seasons, UGA has somewhat resembled Fox’s tenure. Yet Fox had two seasons in which the Bulldogs snuck into the NCAA tournament as a No. 10 seed. Those trips coincided with when the SEC was a relatively weaker conference overall.

The advent of the SEC Network has forced SEC schools up and down the conference to “care” about hoops. I think you can almost draw a direct line between those events and Georgia’s slip from respectable to also-ran. Even last year’s NIT run was a gift, as better teams turned down a trip so coaches could spend more time on the transfer portal. If Georgia can find their way onto the bubble this year, it will be the first time in 10 years they’ve even been close.

LOST PRODUCTION

% Minutes: 71.35% | 11th
% Points: 73.84% | 11th
% Possessions: 72.95% | 12th

At no point was the UGA all-in on last season. White had very clearly recruited a solid freshman class with the idea he would build around the younger players while leaning on the experienced roster to keep them competitive.

It mostly worked.

Russell Tchewa ate up space in the middle. Combo guard Noah Thomasson ate up possessions while Jabri Abdur-Rahim and RJ Melendez spaced the floor. Thomasson finished his eligibility, and Abdur-Rahim and Melendez each entered the transfer portal.

The turnover has undeniably left Georgia with a challenging situation. The current roster is only ahead of Arkansas and Kentucky in career games played. For a program striving to establish a foothold and grow, losing seven of your top 10 players is a significant obstacle.

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The good news? The three returners from White’s rotation were all freshmen and integral building blocks for the future. That includes point guard Silas Demary, a top-100 recruit and a physical lead guard out of North Carolina. His size and strength make him a difficult matchup, as he can use his body to get into and maneuver in tight spaces around the rim. As a freshman, however, Demary didn’t find a successful niche. Half of his touches were spot-ups but only worth 0.894 points per possession. His efficiency in pick-and-rolls (0.769 PPP) wasn’t much better. Developing Demary as a primary attacker and cleaning up his scoring and distribution on pick and rolls will go a long way toward making his half-court game more efficient and making Georgia a better team.

To help Demary out, White added Asa Newell, a five-star recruit who defines the modern four-man. He’s just as good converting as a roller at the rim as he is popping. He can also relocate and space the floor. And if Newell settles in quickly, White might have a tandem to power a resurgence in his third season.

Blue Cain is also back after a freshman season that saw him develop as a reliable floor spacer, making 35% of his 3-point attempts. Helping to space the floor will be transfer wings Dakota Leffew and De’Shayne Montgomery, both from Mount St. Mary’s, who combined to make 103 threes on 271 attempts (38%). Tyrin Lawrence arrives as a playmaker and guard to complement Demary.

On the interior, the Bulldogs signed Somto Cyril, a limited offensive player with a monstrous defensive upside, and added Justin Abson in the transfer portal. Abson was a big-time defensive presence in the middle for Appalachian State last season. Then, both Dylan James and R.J. Godfrey should be able to see minutes at the swing forward spot.

Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The faster Demary, Cain, and Newell develop into reliable starters, the better this whole experiment will go. The projections above are based on many factors described in the text at the bottom of the page. Still, I’ll always point out that while projections aren’t pure guesswork, nothing is set in stone.

Exceeding expectations hinges on Demary growing into a reliable creator as a sophomore. That progress would free White to use the sophomore for roughly 30 minutes a game and boost his usage to 25 percent. The Bulldogs could push for an NCAA tournament bid if Demary’s efficiency holds up.

A lot of this is riding on Demary because there isn’t much ball handling and playmaking behind him.

Leffew and Montgomery were primary playmakers for Mount St. Mary’s, but that was at a program that finished eighth in the MAAC, the nation’s 25th-best conference. Ahead of them is Lawrence, who saw his efficiency slump at Vanderbilt. Again, UGA’s overall roster is the third-least experienced group in the SEC, and the vets White pulled from the portal project as role players.

If you see any differences, that’s because KenPom.com updated last night, so I’ve updated the rating to support all four KenPom, EvanMiya, BartTorvik, and Haslametrics.

These rating are going to change, but if projections hold Georgia did not get a great conference schedule. They have just two Quad one games at home against Auburn and Mississippi State. They have 3 Q1 games on a neutral court, and then all 9 chances on the road. But the road games aren’t even the type of Q1 games you want to see. The ‘worst’ opponent on the road is Ole Miss, and then Arkansas and Bud Walton Arena is one of the toughest venues to play in. With Calipari on board now that crowd will be charged up.

Georgia will really need to outperform expectations in their non-conference slate and steal a few road games if they’re going to have NCAA Tournament thoughts.

THE RULING

Modest expectations could help smooth any struggles White’s roster encounters this season.

Across the SEC, programs used the transfer portal — still stocked with players possessing a fifth year of eligibility — to stay old. Those rosters are easier to project because most older players are at the peak of the development curve. Yet UGA stuck with a more traditional rebuild, and with it comes more variance in how key cogs might perform.

Georgia’s roster features prospects who could turn into NBA-level players, headlined by Demary and Newell. But how many freshmen truly break out and power their teams? Even Reed Sheppard and Stephon Castle operated in supporting roles last season. And suppose that doesn’t happen for Newell. In that case, it’s still likely that general managers will draft him based on projections about how he might perform several years from now.

If Demary and Newell aren’t ready to headline, it will pressure White’s vets to shoulder more work. We know what to expect from players like Lawrence and Leffew, who have combined to play 200 games in their college careers. By now, we know what they are, and it’s hard to envision them pushing UGA up the standings. The same goes for Godfrey and Abson.

There’s a timeline where Demary and Cain take their sophomore leap, Newell shows flashes, and the rest of the talent fills in around them, but the engine is Demary. In that universe, Georgia is a threat in the SEC, plays sound defense and looks like the 2021 Florida Gators with Tre Mann, coached by Mike White. A safe NCAA Tournament team led by a sophomore guard and some consistent shooting.

My Results: Georgia Bulldogs — 14th in Conference, 6-12

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.

Mizzou’s sophomore guard will look to lead a defensive renaissance for the Tigers in 2024-2025.

Over the weeks leading up to the season, this series will dive deep into the players we see making a push for time in the rotation for the 2024-2025 Missouri basketball squad. The pieces read like a birds-eye scouting report. They skew more toward the offensive end of the court for two reasons. First, a player’s offensive metrics are more reliable than defensive data and less team-dependent. Second, it’s considerably easier to describe a player’s qualities with more well-known offensive statistics. As always, we encourage interaction from our readers. Please drop us a comment or find me on Twitter @DataMizzou.

The film credits are given to Matt Harris. Matt has provided all of the film used in this series, and plenty more video and analysis on every player that can be found on https://rockm.plus.

The Player

I don’t blame you if you didn’t fully appreciate Anthony Robinson’s performance in his first season at Mizzou.

Suffering through the team’s miserable conference season was brutal. Sifting through the film and performance data of the freshman’s campaign took even more work. It’s a big ask of anyone. Yet we’re here to tell you that there’s a genuine reason for excitement for the dynamic guard’s sophomore campaign.

Robinson was overshadowed in Dennis Gates’ first true high school recruiting class. The 2023 haul was rated 36th nationally, and Robinson received the lowest grade of Mizzou’s three-man group. Yet the staff’s interest and longstanding connections with the talent out of Tallahassee were undeniable. Coach Dennis Gates and associate head coach Charlton Young gave little notion to the belief that Anthony “Ant” was a ‘tweener prospect. They saw something they liked. And after a full season’s worth of effort, we see it, too.

That doesn’t mean his first year went smoothly.

No, Robinson missed several games during the SEC slate with a death in the family. Eleven players on the roster received starts, and Ant wasn’t one of them. His overall numbers, as we’ll discuss below, lacked superlatives. Yet by year’s end, Robinson had finished sixth on the team in minutes played. His play and attitude on the court often meshed into one indistinguishable characteristic of “don’t back down from anybody.” For a team looking for that exact instinct, Robinson was rewarded. It is the biggest reason why, despite a top-10 high School and transfer recruiting haul, we see Ant as a vital cog in next year’s rotation.

The Numbers

Stats courtesy of Barttorvik.com.

The numbers above may leave most fans wanting more.

Robinson struggled mightily at times with easy tasks on the offensive end. Those are the signs of relying on a freshman and not indicative of his quality as a player overall. Yes, his shooting percentages are pretty rough. His usage rate of 17.9% is solidly that of a role player. Even amongst a group of perimeter players battered by injury, his minutes are modest. Yet I believe Robinson will be Mizzou’s most vital player on the 2024-25 roster that has come to Columbia via the high school ranks.

Starting on the offensive end, Ant had a knack for performing well when asked to do difficult things. For example, Robinson tallied 69 possessions playing on the ball. We’re talking about pick-and-rolls, handoffs, and playing in isolations. Ant averaged 0.971 points per possession in those situations, per Synergy Sports. While Sean East’s possession volume was much more significant, his efficiency (0.960 PPP) was comparable to Ant’s handiwork. Scorers are not hard to come by in the college ranks, but offensive creators are. And there’s good reason to believe Robinson may be just that.

Yet there was a severe downside to his offensive profile as well.

While Robinson excelled doing the more difficult tasks on that end, he struggled converting on the higher percentage chances. The rookie made attempted just 28 shots off the catch and cashed those in for a mere 12 points, many of which were prime opportunities for buckets. Something which must improve going forward.

His difficulties in the open court were particularly perplexing, given his skill set.

A player with a combination of speed and athleticism should have thrived. If bets were taken, we’d be in the camp of believing Robinson will smooth things out in his second year in Columbia. He performed well when pushing the ball up the court but struggled when asked to do much else on the break. His errors were typically magnified in obvious moments of lapses in concentration and requisite urgency.

Even though Ant’s offensive game was inconsistent, his work on the defensive end made his minutes valuable.

This attribute should prove even more vital to a roster seeking to rekindle the chaotic defense Gates’ team employed in his first year at the helm. Coupled with a dynamic defensive point guard transfer in Tony Perkins, Mizzou may be well positioned to have something it hasn’t had in years: a formidable duo manning the perimeter shell and point of attack.

We know one thing for certain about Ant: He doesn’t back down no matter who he is facing. His constant harassment of ballhandlers is precisely what Mizzou seeks in its pressure scheme.

Ant shines not just in causing turnovers. His persistence and skill in defending the ball anywhere on the court are a sight to behold. It likely doesn’t come through when watching on television, but Robinson not only defends well in space, but he also lets his opponent know his intentions through word of mouth.

If there’s an area he’ll seek to improve, it may well involve closing out on shooters. This skill is often honed with time and experience, something Mizzou’s injured rotation offered little leeway for a year ago.

The Role

Despite having 15 players vying for time this coming year, the guard depth is comparatively minimal. Tony Perkins will assuredly see the lion’s share of minutes at the lead guard position. Marques Warrick and his 2,000-plus points at Northern Kentucky will also play a role. Freshman T.O. Barrett will have his chance to force himself into the conversation. After that? Mizzou has no players who project as point guards or combo guards as their optimal position beyond Robinson.

We believe that Ant’s combination of quality in creating offense on the ball and his vital attributes on the defensive end will have him solidly in the rotation. My initial projections have Robinson slotted 7th in the team in playing time at 36.7% of minutes played — a little over 15 minutes per night with potential for more. While this may seem low, considering it’s just a 6% increase, Mizzou hopes to have a much deeper group of options on a nightly basis. I also projected his usage rate to rise from 20 percent to 18 percent. Mizzou has certainly added quality options, but it still has a lot of possessions to fill on the ball with Sean East’s departure. Should Robinson hit those numbers and see a reasonable improvement in cashing in prime opportunities, it’s not hard to see his points per game settling in at 5-7 per contest. If those things were to happen, Mizzou’s “don’t back down” talent from Tallahassee will quickly become a fan favorite.

PPP: Points Per Possession

Min %: This is simply the percentage of minutes played by a given player.

Usage %: A measure of personal possessions used while player is on the court. This includes making a shot, missing a shot coupled with a defensive rebound and a turnover.

eFG%: Same as traditional FG% with the added bonus of 3-point shots given 50% more weight to account for additional point.

OR%: The percentage of possible offensive rebounds a player gets.

DR%: The percentage of possible defensive rebounds a player gets.

AST%: Assists divided by field goals made by player’s teammates while on the court.

TO%: The percentage of personal possessions a player uses on turnovers.

FTR%: A rate which measures a player’s ability to get to the free throw line.

FT%: Free Throw shooting percentage.

2PT%: 2-point field goal percentage.

3PT% 3-point field goal percentage.

The big loss to Texas A&M has fans taking a step back.

Life is about expectations, especially if you’re a practical sort: Manage expectations appropriately, keep your frustration to a minimum, profit.

Well, it appears Mizzou fans are following that simple formula for a life free of anxiety. After last week’s loss to Texas A&M, a healthy majority of Tiger fans are expecting a step down from the preseason heights we had all hoped Missouri would hit.

In all fairness, an 8-win season is pretty good and a 9-win season is nothing to laugh at! Both would be better than an average Tiger season for the last decade or so, though it’s hard to divorce that from the hope that preceded the season. Roughly one-fourth of you are still holding out hope for a CFP type campaign, and it’s certainly still on the table. Seventeen percent of you are punting on anything above the mediocre, so maybe y’all should hit up the basketball boards on Rock M+? Plenty of excitement there!

We also wanted to know if you think Missouri can redeem itself for its poor showing in College Station by playing well in Amherst:

Yeah, we pretty much agree.

Previewing the LSU Tigers Men’s Basketball team. Can the Tigers be a surprise team?

It’s hard to define LSU basketball. Few programs can tout the highs, lows, and general weirdness of the Bayou Bengals. From Pete Maravich and Shaquille O’Neal, to Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Dale Brown and even Ben Simmons and Johnnie Jones. The only thing you can count on regarding LSU Basketball is that it will be interesting.

That is until they hired Matt McMahon. After Will Wade’s embarrassing ending, LSU turned to one of the blandest and most sensible hires imaginable. So far, McMahon has turned in one of the most bland and traditional builds you can think of.

LSU won 14 games in his first season, then just 17 last year. They haven’t been awful, but they haven’t been outstanding. Try to think of a memorable moment from the last few years of LSU basketball. You might struggle to recall a single thing. Maybe you’ll recall their upset win over Kentucky? A game that ended with a fluke bounce where Kentucky’s defense actually made the right play and just caught a bad bounce.

Now, the program has invested in some talent, and they’re looking towards taking another step forward.

Previous SEC Previews:

• 16. South Carolina Gamecocks, 5-13

LSU Tigers

Last season: 20 – 12 (8-10 in conference) #46

The Masses Prediction: 16th in conference, 4.5 – 13.5

Analytics Average: 13th in conference, 64th overall

Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

HEAD COACH: Matt McMahon | 3rd Season, 31-35

Several SEC jobs were open three years ago, and Matt McMahon was up for all of them. But he took the job in Baton Rouge after one of the more successful seasons the Murray State Racers had seen. The fit seemed decent enough. McMahon had made his name by working a slow and reliable build in Murray, Kentucky, where you’re never fully down. But just because Murray State has resources and a great history, it doesn’t make the job any less susceptible to downswings. But since 1980, Murray State hasn’t employed a single head coach who was fired. Every coach took a “better” job upon their exit, except Tevester Anderson, who retired.

McMahon was just the latest coach, following Mick Cronin, Billy Kennedy, and Steve Prohm, to jump to a power conference job. And the program at LSU needed a reset to cleanse its image in the wake of the Will Wade scandal. Like I said before, they picked McMahon, who looked pretty safe. In every way, he might be the anti-Wade.

However, the other thing about Wade is that he won many games. And, to date, McMahon’s tenure hasn’t been remarkable. Year one saw a 2-16 last-place finish in the SEC. And last year, the Tigers finished 9-9 but needed a big late-season surge to get there. They won five of their last seven games but lost to Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament and then to North Texas in the NIT. I’m not sure if McMahon’s job is in jeopardy, but it does feel like a pivotal season for his time there.

The last 10 years have been a ride from bottoming out under Johnny Jones to hitting several highs under Will Wade, then scandal, and now the rebuild with McMahon. Expectations are pretty high for LSU, but it’s also worth pointing out how short the attention span can be there.

Football is king, and baseball isn’t far behind. So, if the basketball team isn’t winning big, the crowds can dwindle fast as fans prep for the baseball season. Which is why this season could be an important one. If things don’t go well, LSU may make a move. However, making a case that they should stay the course is easy.

LOST PRODUCTION

% Minutes: 58.43% | 8th
% Points: 61.07% | 8th
% Possessions: 61.74% | 8th

If LSU’s 2023-24 season was rocky, you can at least partially attribute it to the weird two-time transfer rule being stricken down midway through the year. LSU gambled on Tulane transfer Jalen Cook being able to play for them, bringing a ball handler with a scoring edge. But Cook missed the first 10 games and then the last 9 after a suspension. Without a consistent primary ballhandler, the LSU offense struggled. Then, what offense did they have mostly left via expiring eligibility.

Gone is Jordan Wright, their top possession eater at nearly 20% of the team’s possessions and almost 80% of the minutes. Trae Hannibal and Will Baker are also missing now. Hannibal is probably best known for his hesitation in shooting jump shots and over-willingness to attack the rim. And Baker lent a soft scoring touch with limits defensively. Plus, even though he only played in 13 games, Cook still managed to account for over 8% of the team’s possessions.

Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

A reason I’m still a buyer of McMahon is his recruiting. I still think bringing in valuable young talent is the key to long-term success, and he’s essentially done that.

His initial 2022 class held onto Tyrell Ward and added Jalen Reed in the spring. The 2023 class has two top-120 prospects — Mike Williams and Corey Chest — who should see more of the rotation this year. Then, the freshman class has a dynamic point guard, a playmaking wing, and a solid forward who, with time, could be a central part of a very high-quality core. McMahon has also already landed the commitment of a top 100 forward in the 2025 class, and the Tigers are still in the mix for several other high 4-star and 5-star players. Not to mention landing one of the country’s best Junior College post players in the incoming class.

So, the depth and talent level have improved. In season one, McMahon was mostly reliant on his Murray State transfers to supplement the talent level. Last year, there were still many transfers to pick up the slack. How this season goes will depend largely on how much development we see from these younger players who have been in the program for a few years now.

The transfer class brought in was a small one and one devoid of a big star. Instead, LSU might get some scoring pop from Jordan Sears and Cam Carter, but it looks like the returning core and some young talent may be asked to take center stage. I think that’s for the better. Even if it lowers the floor on the season, it could be a springboard into a great year next year.

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Coaches tend to be very risk-averse. I want to be wrong, but that approach severely lowers the ceiling on what LSU can be this season. It’s also one of the reasons is that it’s easy to discount what sort of season they might be able to have. The talent level on the roster is excellent and pretty deep, too. But how much do you trust freshmen and sophomores? They’reusually pretty hard to trust. They screw up a lot, especially on the defensive end.

The worry here is that McMahon has a collection of four super seniors: Derek Fountain, Cam Carter, Jordan Sears, and Dji Bailey. These players have been perfectly fine collegiate players over the years, but none have demonstrated they can be impact players for a good team.

Carter is the highest-rated LSU transfer in EvanMiya.com’s BPR at 3.73, making him the 114th-ranked transfer per Miya’s ratings. There were 83 inbound transfers into the SEC, and Carler lands at No. 34 in BPR. Carter was a forgotten bench player at Mississippi State in 2022, transferred into a good Kansas State team for Jerome Tang in year one, but was a role player who was pretty bad offensively with an 89.9 offensive rating. Last year, he was better but still poor at 97.5, and he played a much more significant role for K-State, a team that missed the tournament in a disappointing follow-up season.

Not to single out Carter too much here, but if that’s your best transfer, there’s a fair question about how much the others will help you. For this to work, McMahon probably needs Ward and Reed to really step out from their roles and provide more scoring punch than the 17 points and 6 rebounds they offered last year.

SCHEDULES

LSU’s non-conference slate is manageable, but there can’t be any slip ups. Without a home game against a team in the projected top 100, the Tigers need to run the table at home, and probably pick up at least a couple of the neutral site contests.

Fortunately, again, the SEC’s strength beckons. 13 quad one opportunities in league play alone, plus one for the road game at Kansas State.

THE RULING

Which direction is this going?

Navigating LSU’s potential season is like figuring out street directions in New Orleans for the first time. Whatever direction you think you’re headed will end up confounding you when you hit the wrong side of the river.

The experience on the roster isn’t all that intriguing, but the depth and talent level are worth noting. The main question is where the distribution of points and possessions goes.

McMahon has been very willing to play a deep roster. He leaned pretty hard in year one on Adam Miller and KJ Williams but still played nine guys. Last year, when Jalen Cook was available, they typically played nine guys. Returning to his Murray State days, McMahon generally has gone to nine players getting at least 25% of the available minutes, or roughly 10 minutes per game. I’ll be tracking the minute distribution to the sophomores and freshmen early on, notably Mike Williams, Curtis Givens, and Vyctorius Miller. The more those three play, the less you will likely see from transfers Jordan Sears and Cam Carter.

There’s the gamble, though. What you get from Carter is a known quantity. It’s the value of transfers with experience. There’s a reason the SEC added over 80 transfers with nearly 7,000 games of experience and almost 160,000 minutes of Division-I action. There’s far less risk with transfers. For the Tigers, they didn’t swing hard in the transfer market the way they have, even in the last two years. In 2022, they were second in the SEC in newcomer minutes played. In 2023, they were fifth. In 2024, they’re 10th.

Numbers like that indicate McMahon and his staff are ready to begin a push with their existing talent. LSU is entering the season with one of the least experienced rosters, ahead of only Arkansas, South Carolina, and Georgia.

With that shift come unknowns.

Arkansas might pull it off because John Calipari is used to young and talented rosters. But it’s normally very hard to win with that much youth pulling the rope. So, the season could get rocky in Baton Rouge, but that doesn’t mean McMahon has missed. He’s just currently invested in the ground up. Will the administration have the patience to stick with him if things go awry this season?

My Results: LSU Tigers — 15th in Conference, 5-13

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.

After a freshman year to forget, Mizzou’s talented sophomore looks to boost his stock and reassert himself as a key member of the Tigers’ rotation.

Over the weeks leading up to the season, this series will dive deep into the players we see making a push for time in the rotation for the 2024-2025 Missouri basketball squad. The pieces read like a birds-eye scouting report. They skew more toward the offensive end of the court for two reasons. First, a player’s offensive metrics are more reliable than defensive data and less team-dependent. Second, it’s considerably easier to describe a player’s qualities with more well-known offensive statistics. As always, we encourage interaction from our readers. Please drop us a comment or find me on Twitter @DataMizzou.

The film credits are given to Matt Harris. Matt has provided all of the film used in this series, and plenty more video and analysis on every player that can be found on https://rockm.plus.

The Player

“The best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores.” While the lighthearted nature of the quote is understood, there’s also an element of truth to it. Perhaps it’s also the best light to view Trent Pierce’s career so far.

Pierced joined Missouri after a successful high school career in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and a brief stopover at AZ Compass Prep, where he teamed up with another future Tiger in Marcus Allen. His success on the court led to many high-major programs pursuing him and his lofty top-100 ranking in 247Sports’ composite index.

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Pierce’s freshman year in black and gold was forgettable, to put it mildly. The jumbo wing struggled to knock down jumpers and saw his season interrupted by a lengthy illness. When a team only manages eight wins, those struggles get magnified.

However, Pierce has stayed the course. In an era where the slightest blip of adversity will send players straight to the transfer portal, Pierce still trusts the vision laid out for him by coach Dennis Gates. How he capitalizes on that near term will almost assuredly dictate his place as a Mizzou Tiger.

The Numbers

Statistics courtesy of Barttorvik.com.

We’ll just address it right off the bat. The numbers are what they are. And what they are isn’t good.

Pierce’s game hinges on steady shooting, and he struggled from outside. But we’re also dealing with tiny samples. Consider: Trent’s minutes, in sum, add up to less than four games played. Aside from a solid defensive rebound and steal rates to go with decent 2-point shooting, there’s not much of a hook on which to hang the idea that a breakout is imminent.

But that’s not how it always goes.

The 6-foot-10 sophomore is capable of more than that. Possessing an elite shooting stroke for a man his size, it’s not hard to envision things clicking for him. The following clip provides an explanation of his struggles and a justification for believing that production will come.

Pierce has a solid look to his jumper. The release is a little long — bringing the ball down below his waist while loading — but otherwise, Pierce owns a clean and repeatable release. The problem is that the shots weren’t going in.

Pierce found space and took shots within the flow of the offense. Whether the misses were due to a lack of confidence or experience, they were unproductive all the same. The hope is that with a season under his belt and a renewed focus, those same shots start dropping. If they do—and at a respectable rate—MU will have something of a unique player at that size.

Consider this a segue of sorts. The uniqueness in Trent’s game is not simply a player being able to knock down jumpers at 6-foot-10. He can defend well on the perimeter at the same time. Pierce arrived at MU with a reputation as a solid team defender, but there were brief glimpses of sound lateral ability and defensive skills, especially for a guy his size.

The ability to shoot and guard various positions is a coveted skill set, especially within the constraints of switching defense when employing a man-to-man look or the sheer length when employing a zone.

The Role

To have a successful second season, Pierce will need to check both of those boxes. The good news? Having looked back and the full Leonard Hamilton and Dennis Gates era at Florida State, sophomore jumps were common. Employing Evan Miya’s Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) confirms that observation.

BPR, in this context, is an individual metric, and it quantifies how much better or worse the player’s team — here Trent Pierce — is if there were nine average players on the court with him. The metric is judged over 100 possession samples. In Trent’s case, his BPR was 0.12, meaning Mizzou was 0.12 points better over 100 possessions with him on the court. That number is…not great.

But it’s not uncommon either. The Seminoles’ freshmen classes from 2012-2014 — those that were the springboard to their future success — had a median first-year BPR of -0.53. Worse than Trent’s was. What’s more? That median number jumped to 2.22 during their second year. While that figure is not elite, it’s certainly respectable and worthy of a spot in the rotation. It also provides a rough guide for the stakeholders when judging Pierce’s progress at year’s end.

Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Turning to his role next year with this information in mind, I’m somewhat bullish on Pierce asserting himself. He has a fair amount of positional flexibility due to his defensive profile. Whether running as an “interior player” alongside Mark Mitchell or as a wing when Mizzou employs a true center, his skills could translate equally. I see his minutes played rate doubling and sitting around 20.4% — a little over eight minutes a night. That result would rank him 10th among the 15 scholarship-level players. Assuming his usage stays in that 20% range, seeing him average 2-4 points a night would be reasonable.

PPP: Points Per Possession

Min %: This is simply the percentage of minutes played by a given player.

Usage %: A measure of personal possessions used while player is on the court. This includes making a shot, missing a shot coupled with a defensive rebound and a turnover.

eFG%: Same as traditional FG% with the added bonus of 3-point shots given 50% more weight to account for additional point.

OR%: The percentage of possible offensive rebounds a player gets.

DR%: The percentage of possible defensive rebounds a player gets.

AST%: Assists divided by field goals made by player’s teammates while on the court.

TO%: The percentage of personal possessions a player uses on turnovers.

FTR%: A rate which measures a player’s ability to get to the free throw line.

FT%: Free Throw shooting percentage.

2PT%: 2-point field goal percentage.

3PT% 3-point field goal percentage.

The Morning Commute for October 11, 2024

Welcome to the Morning Commute

The SEC Announced it’s tip times for Men’s and Women’s Basketball yesterday. Here’s the tweet from the official Mizzou Hoops page:

If I may, a moment to complain.

I don’t often get up in arms about things like when a game is played. We all have our preferences, but for the most part I’m happy to watch any time they want to play as long as it’s not in the middle of the night.

But I’ll happily find something to complain about with some of these non conference times. Missouri has arguably two of the best non-conference games in the country on an annual basis and each game is scheduled for Sunday at noon? Going up against the NFL.

At least the MU-KU game isn’t up against the Chiefs who play Sunday night. But the Braggin’ Rights game is up against the Chiefs, and it doesn’t feel right playing that game in the day time. Braggin’ Rights needs an 8pm Central tip time to feel right.

Instead we’ll be watching just after brunch. It feels weird.

Yesterday at Rock M and Rock M+

• We’re still doing our best to preview this game against Umass, including Dan’s between the numbers take:

Quarterback Taison Phommachanh is like a poor man’s Thomas Castellanos, scrambling when necessary and hitting the occasional deep ball. But he, and the infrastructure around him, is not enough to threaten Mizzou’s defense. At 107th overall in the country, this is one of the worst offenses in the sport.

Oh boy! I know it’s hard to predict what a team will look like when you schedule 6-8 years out but also THIS IS WHY YOU SHOULDN’T SCHEDULE THAT FAR OUT! Motion to move to scheduling games two years out at most? All in favor say Aye!

• Quentin’s column on the season within a season was a good one:

The difference was that, unlike the other defeated giants, Mizzou was trounced from the get-go; its 24-0 halftime deficit was its greatest since 2021. Through five games, the Tigers look more like a contender for the Music City Bowl rather than the College Football Playoff. It’s why Drinkwitz felt the need to say that the sky, which has existed as long as the universe, was not going to do something it had never done in almost 14 billion years.

Closer to four and a half billion, but otherwise correct!

• Sammy’s still going to write these even if Mizzou gets themselves all the way out of the picture, so they might as well win enough to be in the picture!
• Mizzou Soccer whipped Ole Miss last night, Dylan Previewed that game, and Sunday’s matchup at Mississippi State:

Next on the schedule is two teams close in distance but far away in terms of success: Ole Miss (5-9, 0-5 SEC) and Mississippi State (10-1, 4-0 SEC).

• SEC Previews have kicked off, starting with South Carolina! You should read it because hoops season is coming.
• Over at Rock M+, we’re talking about Player rankings, as designed by our own DataMizzou:

As a brief background, Miya utilizes something called the “Bayesian Performance Rating.” It’s a pretty unique thing in college basketball as it identifies player-level data on BOTH ends of the court. For all of the great metrics we have out there, most are either 1. Team Oriented and/or skewed heavily to offensive performance. BPR’s stated purpose is to have a number that reflects the number of points per 100 possessions better/worse a player makes his team if he were on the court with 9 other average players. It’s not a perfect measurement, of course. Defensive impact in a team sport like basketball is hard to quantify perfectly. Yet BPR for my money is the best tool we have to get a glimpse how how impactful an individual player was.

There was only one hangup I have with his system. As you can see above, it’s a rate based measurement. Meaning, the measurement is limited to a rate per 100 possessions. I don’t believe it properly accounts for how much/how little the player in question is on the court. So…I fixed it.

Behold: The PAR Rankings!!!

Some of what he developed we applied to the previews, I think they’re a lot better this year FWIW.

Rock M Radio: How much fun can it be previewing UMass?

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