Basketball Insider

Commute: the NIL era isn’t for everyone


The Morning Commute for Friday October 18, 2024

Welcome to the Morning Commute

Tony Bennett is set to make his retirement from Virginia basketball official at a press conference today:

Tony Bennett won a National Championship at Virginia in 2019. His career is something to behold. He’s only 55 years old, he played collegiately at Green Bay for his father Dick before turning professional and playing in the NBA for a few seasons. Soon after he followed in his father’s footsteps and went into coaching. He took Washington State to the NCAA Tournament, and parlayed that job into the one at Virginia where he built up one of the best programs in the country.

From 2014 to 2019 the lowest KenPom rating the Cavaliers held was 12th, and they held 4 protected seeds in the NCAA Tournament including the top overall seed in 2018 and 2019, winning everything in 2019.

Bennett caught flak for his pace and style, but the success speaks for itself.

Until everything changed. Since the 2020 season we’ve seen an explosion in player empowerment rules like the transfer portal and Name, Image and Likeness. We’ve also seen an exodus of some of the most powerful coaches in basketball: Mike Krzyzewski, Jim Boeheim, Roy Williams and Jay Wright have already called it a career. And all since 2019.

There’s little coincidence between Bennett retiring and the fact that since 2019 Virginia hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game and haven’t finished higher than 19th in KenPom. The NIL era and the portal era haven’t been kind to Virginia with finishes in the 60s and 70s in KenPom versus the top 10 finishes just 10 years ago. Even this year the Cavaliers were projected at 78th in the country, and notably Bennett has been slow to embrace NIL to bolster his talent level. The game you have to play isn’t for everyone.

It’s far more of a grind, there’s far less time for development, and not being willing to dive into NIL opportunities will shorten most recruitments. Some coaches are thriving, Dan Hurley, Nate Oats, Tommy Lloyd, and yes even that guy to the west. Tony Bennett may not have wanted to play the game and now he’s getting out of it completely.


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That athleticism has especially flashed after the catch, just as it did in his first two seasons. A pair of highlight-reel runs against Boston College are perfect examples, which included Burden’s unique ability to medley acceleration and deceleration to create chunk plays.

Burden has been awesome, it’s always fun to remind ourselves of it since the timeline is certainly limited.

Overall, lots of flashes of potential were displayed over the weekend and this team does have the talent to win more games than they did last year. Pitchers who had previous experience in the program stood out immensely and the starting rotation could be a force. However, some newcomers and transfers struggled with command, but with time, they should become more comfortable on the mound.

Now with three matches left on the calendar, Mizzou sits on the edge of the SEC Tournament. While the Tigers don’t have to win out in order to qualify, there are several matchups where points are needed to stay in contention. Perhaps the most important match down the stretch comes to kick off Homecoming Weekend against Oklahoma.

Also on the Olympic calendar today are Softball, Women’s Golf, and Cross Country.

The explanation is pat at this point: While MU finished among the top five in the SEC for talent acquisition, there are still unresolved questions about whether those players can guard or rebound well enough to exceed modest expectations. We’re relatively optimistic that coach Dennis Gates and his staff built a roster that won’t be as abject in those areas, but it’s undoubtedly a prove-it campaign for him and his staff.

There’s nobody covering Mizzou Basketball like the data twins on RM+, I’m just trying to chip in where i can.

Rock M Radio: Dive Cuts talked about Preseason rankings

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SEC Hoops Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs

NCAA Basketball: SEC Conference Tournament Quarterfinal-Mississippi State vs Tennessee
Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Previewing the Mississippi State Bulldogs Men’s Basketball team. Does Chris Jans have enough answere in the front court?

If any single team will look very different despite essentially looking the same, it’s the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Chris Jans inherited a solid roster from Ben Howland and stuck mainly with the premise of a big, physical, athletic team that would defend like hell. For the last few years, the Bulldogs have centered around a center, Tolu Smith. A throwback to a mostly by-gone era of college basketball teams focused around a stout back-to-the-basket big man, Smith was the primary driver for the MSU offense under Howland and then Jans.

But here’s the thing about college eligibility: eventually, it does run out. And Tolu is finally out of eligibility. So what’s next is the first full unassisted Chris Jans roster. We’re all going to see how this turns out.


Previous SEC Previews:

MSU Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Last season: 21 – 14 (8-10 in conference) #34

The Masses Prediction: 11th in conference, 7.5 – 10.5

SEC Media: 10th in conference

Analytics Average: 6th in conference, 26th overall

NCAA Basketball: SEC Conference Tournament Semifinal-Mississippi State vs Auburn
Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

HEAD COACH: Chris Jans | 3rd Season, 42-27

Jans is a good hire in many ways for a school like State, which doesn’t have the deep pockets of some peers in its conference. Jans has a history in the junior college ranks, where you’re flipping half your roster (at least) every year, and the ways with which you flip your roster are generally very creative.

It’s why he was able to get such a high return while he was at New Mexico State and why he should be able to keep the boat above water in the era of the transfer portal, NIL, and the challenges that go along with it. Jans was handed a solid and playable hand when he took over, and he played it well—right into two NCAA Tournament berths. But the bulk of those rosters are gone, and Jans went out and got creative.

He is accustomed to assembling a roster of assassins, getting the best talent he can accumulate, and seeing where the chips fall.

2024 preview mississippi state 10 year look

The last few years under Jans have been a roller coaster of offense, both awful and decent, while the defense has remained pretty steady. Fielding a remotely decent offense last season netted an 8 seed, whereas the season before, they squeaked into one of the last spots with a horrible offense but an even better defense.

Both Ben Howland and Jans have toyed with the edges of the Tournament bubble in the last 10 years, but it’s been since 2008 the last time State won a game in the NCAA Tournament. And even longer than that since the program has seen a protected seed. Jans has made back to back tournaments but can he elevate this program into the next tier, even for a season?

LOST PRODUCTION

% Minutes: 57.55% | 7th
% Points: 52.74% | 6th
% Possessions: 55.14% | 6th

Tolu Smith, anyone?

Of course, we’ve already talked about Smith and his absence. He missed the first part of the season and still accumulated over 13% of both possessions and points in just 46% of the minutes. But Smith wasn’t the only exit from the roster, as 6 of the top 8 scorers also went out the door through either transfer or expiring eligibility, most from the latter.

Jans fielded a highly experienced roster a year ago and four of the six all left by graduation. Losing Shakeel Moore and Dashawn Davis should cause a hit, but the significant loss is Smith. His consistent production in the middle of the offense powered the Bulldogs for four seasons.

NCAA Basketball: South Carolina at Mississippi State
Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
2024 preview mississippi state roster

The biggest coup for Chris Jans was keeping Josh Hubbard out of the transfer portal because few freshmen in the country had the kind of impact Hubbard had. 27 and a half minutes a game (only twice playing fewer than 20), and nearly every night showing up with the kind of offensive efficiency Jans and the Bulldogs missed the year before. Hubbard only posted less than 1.0 points per possession in six games last season, remarkable for a freshman guard. Hubbard is on the smaller side but doesn’t play like it. He’s a high-level athlete who creates space and gets off the floor on his shot. He’s a good jump shooter and at getting in the lane, although his size prevents him from being effective at the rim. The offense went through Hubbard all year despite Tolu’s presence. And it will go through Hubbard again this year.

Also coming back is Cameron Matthews, who you might remember as the guy who looks like he should be playing football. At 6’7 “and 235 lbs of granite, Matthews is a powerful defender and rebounder, though he only occasionally tries to play offense. When he attacks downhill, he can display a soft touch at the rim. He’s in the 95th percentile for shots at the rim, but he only attempted 23 jump shots last year. He did make two of them!

With so many guards out the door, Jans dipped into the transfer portal to bolster the depth behind Hubbard. How they mix will be interesting, but Kanye Clary was a very high-usage point guard at Penn State before being kicked off the team 23 games into the season. Before his separation, Clary sported a respectable 108.7 offensive rating playing in a ton of ball screens. Over 50% of his play calls came via the pick-and-roll, so he should fit right in with Hubbard, who ran it nearly 30% of the time.

Claudell Harris Jr. was a double-digit scorer at Boston College, doing a lot of his work off the ball. To solve the empty spot at the wing, MSU added Florida Gators transfer Riley Kugel and Georgia Bulldogs transfer R.J. Melendez. Kugel initially committed to Mississippi State out of high school before Ben Howland left, so in a way, he’s back home. Melendez began his career at Illinois but struggled to fit into Brad Underwood’s system. He spent last year at Georgia.

NCAA Basketball: Florida at Kentucky
Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
2024 preview mississippi state depth

Of all our projections so far, this is one about which I’m the least sure, mainly because the roster is a bit weird.

Jans moved swiftly this offseason and seemed to make concessions out of practicality. Hubbard is clearly at the top of the lineup. As long as Hubbard is healthy, he should see the lion’s share of the minutes and remain high-usage. Behind him should be Cameron Matthews. As a tone-setter and versatile defender, he’s hard to beat.

The problems with the roster? Jans has moved quickly from a roster full of big and strong front-court players to almost the opposite. The depth in the post isn’t ideal, with KeyShawn Murphy only playing 40 games over the last two years. Murphy originally entered the transfer portal but ultimately decided to stick it out in Starkville. Then, via the portal, Jans added Rhode Island transfer Jeremy Foumena, someone who took four DNPs in the season’s final seven games. He also added Miami transfer Michael Nwoko, who played over 20 minutes just two times last season but saw 10 minutes or less (including 3 DNPs) 25 times in 32 games.

So, the pressing question is what Jans plans to do to firm up the middle of his defense. Spots one through four are set, especially when he has Hubbard and Clary comfortable with the ball in their hands. If anything, it will be interesting to see how they’re used together.

2024 preview mississippi state non-conference
2024 preview mississippi state conference

There aren’t many teams in recent SEC history who can survive a sub-.500 league record and still see themselves safely in the NCAA Tournament. Yet, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have done so in back-to-back years.

One of the ways Jans has managed his team to be in the same position each year is with smart scheduling. And he’s done it again this year. Two years ago, the Bulldogs entered league play 11-1 with wins over Marquette (which aged very nicely) and Utah in the top 100. He also scheduled a neutral site contest against a solid Akron team, beat Minnesota (a bad Big 10 team) on the road, and only lost to a good Drake squad on a neutral court. So, really, only five games that would appear challenging.

Then, last year, it was a lot of the same. There were no elite teams on the schedule, but only one team finished below 300 in KenPom, and there were six neutral-site games with one away game. Thanks to all those difficult neutral-site games, they were even able to survive a home loss to Southern. The best team they played was 41st-ranked Northwestern, and everyone else was inside 303rd-ranked Bethune Cookman.

This year, Utah will be in a semi-home game, SMU will be in Dallas, UNLV will be in Butler and Northwestern will be in an MTE in Arizona, Pitt, McNeese, and Memphis will be on the road. There’s nothing there that isn’t manageable for a good team. And very few of those games will get you punished if you lose a couple. Just don’t lose more than a couple.

THE RULING

The success of the season is really going to hinge on the rest of the roster built outside of Hubbard and Matthews. At this stage, they are both what you might call “known” quantities. What is unknown is how Jans will manage the rest of the roster.

There are some things to like. Two strong lead guards like Clary and Hubbard, a quality combo guard like Claudell Harris, and then a couple wings in Kugel and Melendez help space the floor. It’s unclear how much Clary will see the primary ball handler spot. Still, the initial projection of around 37% of minutes is low. Even Hubbard’s projection could be low, but aside from one year at New Mexico State, Jans hasn’t played his primary top players more than 75% of the minutes.

The concern here is twofold. Not only are both your lead guards on the smaller side, but Harris isn’t massive, either. So, no matter the combination, the lineup is small up front. This isn’t a big deal if you have the depth and size to back them up, and there is the most significant question mark with this roster. There are five traditional post players on this roster, and none of them have been put in a position to serve for a large number of minutes. Jans either trusts Murphy will step up or hopes he’ll get something from one of the rest. Gai Chol is a player we haven’t even mentioned yet. Chol played a decent role early for the Bulldogs until Tolu returned from injury. In SEC play, he saw the floor for 8 minutes in total.

The post rotation is going to need to be a surprise in some way for this team to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The guard rotation should be fine, although Clary has a reputation for being problematic in the locker room. At least Jans has a history of dealing with and making all sorts of personalities meld together. He’s got his work cut out with Clary and Riley Kugel, who left Florida in dismay due to a lack of touches. Then committed to Kansas before defecting to Mississippi State.

It’s a lot to handle, even for Jans.

My Results: Mississippi State Bulldogs — 11th in Conference, 7-11


About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.

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Commute: Exhibition Hoops and Football Watch Party at Mizzou Arena


The Morning Commute for Thursday, October 17

Welcome to the Morning Commute

Today we’re talking about some Mizzou Hoops!

SEC Basketball Media Days has wrapped up, which means college hoops season is right around the corner.

Mizzou Men’s Basketball will open the regular season on November 4th at Memphis, but the Tigers will be playing a game earlier than that.

It was previously reported that Missouri would host Lincoln University on Saturday, October 26th, but it was made official by Mizzou Hoops today.

It’s free admission, and there will also be a watch party at Mizzou Arena for the Mizzou-Alabama football game

Tip-off will be two hours prior to the Mizzou-Alabama game, which will kick-off at either 2:30 or 3:15. More info available at MUTigers.com.

For more coverage on hoops, Sam Snelling and Matthew Harris discussed preseason expectations for Missouri Basketball on the latest episode of Dive Cuts.


Yesterday at Rock M and Rock M+

“If you hadn’t seen/heard, Auburn Coach Hugh Freeze held his Monday media presser and tried to hand a compliment down to Mizzou’s Eliah Drinkwitz. However, it didn’t come out quite right, because when he complimented Drink for doing a great job of building the program, he said that Drink has done so despite having a “lesser roster in recruiting.”

Perhaps some bulletin board material for Mizzou Football on Homecoming?

“Despite an early loss, every Mizzou goal remains on the table for the Tigers at this point. That will not be the case if they drop this game to a stumbling Auburn team.”

This is a must-win game for Mizzou as these programs are heading in the opposite directions.

“This is a chance for Drinkwitz and his Tigers to make a statement on how the rest of this year goes. Just win.”

Get it done on Homecoming.

“He has to commit to doing things his top competitors will be willing to do. If he does, Aidan can genuinely deliver on the promise that he’s had since he first pledged to the Tigers three years ago.”

Read up on Aidan Shaw on our latest Mizzou Hoops player preview — who is looking to live up to his potential entering a pivotal junior season.

“Drink and company spoke to reporters as per usual on Tuesday, highlighting what was important about their next opponent.”

Read what Drinkwitz, Chris McClellan, Joshua Manning, and Joseph Charleston had to say on Tuesday’s media day.

“The Missouri Tigers jumped to No. 19 in this week’s AP Top 25 after a 45-3 win over UMass. The win marked the Tigers last game of their non-conference slate, and was described as a rebound game after a tough loss to Texas A&M.”

Marcus Carroll and Sterling Webb were highlighted in the 45-3 win over UMass.

“My Results: Vanderbilt Commodores — 12th in Conference, 7-11”

Vanderbilt is the latest on our SEC Basketball Team Previews — where Sam predicts the Commodores to place 12th in the league with a 7-11 conference record.

“Best Bets now sits at 14-8 with our total picks record at an even 20-20-1. Let’s jump right into making you some money in Week 8!”

Nathan gives his betting insight on the Week 8 College Football slate, which of course includes the Mizzou-Auburn game.

“While the 8-minute press conference didn’t last long, we learned plenty about the areas of emphasis for her roster and her mentality heading into the season. Here are three quick things we learned from Mizzou’s time in Birmingham.”

Some quotes from Mizzou WBB Head Coach Robin Pingeton at SEC Media Days.

The 2024 Mizzou Football season is one that has been met with as much anticipation as any in recent memory. With Eli Drinkwitz’s program taking a huge step forward in the 2023 season, going 11-2 and securing a Cotton Bowl victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes, there’s a renewed focus on what Missouri can do to put itself in the conversation for a berth in the College Football Playoff.

The digital magazine we present today is 115 pages chalk full of Mizzou Football previewing, scouting, interviewing, and more…

Rock M Radio: BTBS Auburn Preview with Nate Edwards and Nathan Hurst

Subscribe to Rock M Radio on Apple Podcasts. Or stream episodes through Megaphone or Spotify. Have a question for us? Leave a 5-star review with your question and that show just might answer it in an upcoming episode!

If you like Rock M Radio drop us a Review and be sure to subscribe on your preferred podcasting platform. Follow @RockMRadio on Twitter and if you heaven’t already head over to our YouTube channel and click that subscribe button!

  • (** RockMNation has affiliate partnerships. These do not influence editorial content, though RockMNation may earn commissions for products purchased via affiliate links.**)

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Takeaways from Coach Pingeton’s Media Day Press Conference

Head coach Robin Pingeton letting her emotions show in a senior night showdown against Vanderbilt in February 2024. | Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation

We’ve learned more in 8 minutes than we have in 3 months

After some extensive radio silence since the one practice I went to back in July, we finally heard from women’s basketball head coach Robin Pingeton at SEC media days. While the 8-minute press conference didn’t last long, we learned plenty about the areas of emphasis for her roster and her mentality heading into the season. Here are three quick things we learned from Mizzou’s time in Birmingham.

Judd, Slaughter highlight returners

To no one’s surprise, the two faces of Mizzou women’s basketball are leading returning scorers Ashton Judd and Grace Slaughter.

As the longest tenured Tiger alongside Averi Kroenke (which feels weird), Judd continues to work on taking the next step. Now an upperclassmen, Ashton is still quite silent on the court. But her actions and her hours in the gym speak louder than words.

“To me she has that ‘it’ factor, a little bit of an alpha on the court,” Pingeton said. “She’s gritty, she’s tough, she’s resilient, she’s been a really good leader for so many of our new players. Not only because of her character but just her work ethic.”

Judd’s raw numbers have increased steadily since freshman year, moving from 20 to 30 minutes per game and from 7.4 points to 13.4. However, there are plenty of questions surrounding efficiency, with both her overall and three-point percentages seeing drop-offs in somewhat of a “sophomore slump”.

But a surprise of value came in her rebounding with 6.4 boards and 1.5 on the offensive glass. For a team and a coach who loves to go small, that sort of rebounding as a guard makes Judd extremely valuable when it comes to second-chance points.

Grace Slaughter is seen as the future of the women’s basketball program, coming off a freshman year where she averaged double-digits and secured a spot on the All-SEC Freshman team.

If there was one downside to her first year, Slaughter struggled defensively. She tended to look lost on rotations, struggling to think ahead and catch up to driving scorers. As a result, this will be a big point of emphasis, and I’d expect her to use her larger size as a wing to her advantage, using it to slow down and defer defenders.

New faces galore

Perhaps the biggest storyline regarding this Mizzou team is all the new faces on the roster—specifically transfers. There are four — count ‘em FOUR new transfers on the team— and basically five if you include De’Myla Brown, who will play her first year in a Tiger uniform after sitting out due to transfer rules/regulations.

One player drawing plenty of attention is sophomore Tionna “Tree” Herron. After entering Kentucky as a top-tier recruit, Herron was forced to sit out her first year due to a surprise need for open heart surgery. After a transfer to Texas and a year spent primarily on the bench, Tree is ready for an increased role as a Tiger.

“She’s been a great addition. She’s got size, she’s got good athleticism,” Pingeton said. “I’ve been pleased with the growth in her game that we’ve seen since she’s been on campus.”

Pingeton mentioned that an area of focus was getting her in better physical shape, being able to handle the grind and physicality that is SEC play.

Another player that drew the attention of the media is New Mexico transfer Nyah Wilson. During her last year in the Mountain West, Wilson averaged 15.5 points per game, including a stretch where she scored double-digits in 18 of her last 19 games to close the season.

“She can push the ball in transition, guard 90 feet from the basket,” Pingeton said.

Another area of focus is Wilson’s ability to play point guard, a skill that didn’t seem like was an option entering the season. With a point guard room that has plenty of options but may lack top-end scoring talent, Wilson would be an immediate option as a scoring threat coming up the court.

Where you grow the most

It’s no secret that the last couple of years have been less than stellar for Mizzou WBB. From an NCAA Tournament appearance in 2019, to three straight NIT appearances from 2021-23, to missing ALL tournaments last year, there have been plenty of questions raised about the program.

But Coach Pingeton understands this. The SEC hasn’t gotten any easier; with powerhouses like South Carolina and LSU, the resurgence of Kentucky and the addition of Oklahoma and Texas, there’s no doubt that this is one of the best conferences in the nation. The SEC has five teams ranked in the AP top 25 plus two more receiving votes.

After a last-place finish and a projected No. 15 finish in the media poll, many are counting Mizzou WBB out before the season starts. But Coach P is insisting that this team is too good to count out.

“I’m so proud of the resiliency and the resolve of these young ladies, that they believe in our program and our culture. We’re willing to come back and stay committed to what our hopes and dreams have been as we continue to elevate our program back up in a tough league,” Pingeton said. “I don’t shy away from any of it. I think the good is good and the hard can be really good for you, too.”

We will continue to learn more about this team when Mizzou hosts their media day later in October before kicking off the season with a preseason exhibition at home against Truman State at 6:30 p.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 29 at Mizzou Arena.

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SEC Hoops Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores

Florida v Vanderbilt
Photo by Carly Mackler/Getty Images

Previewing the Vanderbilt Commodores Men’s Basketball team. Can Mark Byington surprise with a brand new roster in year one?

It might surprise you, but I looked foward to writing this preview. At the very least, Vanderbilt usually offers up a couple of interesting storylines, and that remains true after Jerry Stackhouse’s dismissal this spring.

Around here, we talked a lot about Stack, smart scouts, and scheme. He was sharp in those areas, but they don’t matter if you can’t handle the more essential elements of the job. And as a high-major coach, that’s usually talent acquisition. Ultimately, Stackhouse didn’t win enough recruiting battles; each spring, there was just enough turnover to keep his rebuild stagnant.

With Stackhouse gone, a new era has started, and I’m intrigued to watch and investigate. Vandy has long been one of the league’s darkhorse powerhouse programs thanks to its proximity to talent and a deep pocketbook (if they ever wanted to exercise that part of it). Nashville is also a fun town, as I’m sure many of you know.

But Vanderbilt has seldom realized their potential as a program. Perhaps a new direction under a new coach is the step toward realizing that potential?


Other SEC Previews:

Vandy Preview

Vanderbilt Commodores

Last season: 9 – 23 (4-14 in conference) #183

The Masses Prediction: 15th in conference, 4.6 – 13.4

SEC Media: 16th in conference

Analytics Average: 16th in conference, 77th overall

Vanderbilt Basketball Introduces Mark Byington
Photo by Vanderbilt Athletics/Getty Images

HEAD COACH: Mark Byington | 1st Season, 0-0

Of the three SEC teams that hired new coaches, Vanderbilt was the only opening that resulted from a hiring. The Commodores dismissed Stackhouse after a 9-23 season where they finished 183rd in KenPom.

The firing was justified, and Stackhouse quickly moved to a job as an assistant coach for the Golden State Warriors, which was back in his wheelhouse.

My advice for hiring coaches is bland: hire the best coach and hope they figure out the rest.

Mark Byington would fit the bill. He got his start as an assistant coach with Bobby Cremins at the College of Charleston before taking the head job at Georgia Southern, replacing current MU assistant Charlton Young. Byington recorded four 20-win campaigns in seven seasons while transitioning the program to the Sun Belt Conference from the Southern Conference. He left in 2020, and the program has sniffed 20 wins since.

Byington’s arrival at James Madison coincided with a high-water period for an athletic program that, relative to its financial and fan support, was solid. No coach in the program’s history won like Byington did in his fourth season, leading the Dukes to 32 victories and the second round of the NCAA tournament.

No hire is a certainty, but Vanderbilt picked a guy who has maxed out the potential at two programs where winning isn’t assured.

2024 preview Vanderbilt 10 year look

From 2007 to 2012, Vanderbilt went to five NCAA tournaments in six years under Kevin Stallings—not just trips, but two four-seeds, two five-seeds, and a six-seed. Then, they returned in 2016 and again in 2017. They haven’t been back.

Since their last trip to the tournament, things have been rough. Stackhouse made the NIT in back-to-back seasons, but the Commodores have more nine-win seasons (3) than postseason trips (2). Toss in 11-win and 12-win seasons, and I’m sure just consistently being competitive again would be a welcome site in Memorial Gym.

LOST PRODUCTION

% Minutes: 89.57% | 14th
% Points: 95.17% | 15th
% Possessions: 93.23% | 15th

Byington isn’t going to get much help from the old roster because virtually all of it is gone. Arkansas and Kentucky, who also have new coaches, found themselves in the same situation. That’s to be expected in this era.

I don’t know how many players who left would fit with Byington. Still, nine Commodores entered the transfer portal, and several found good landing spots. Five signed with other high majors, including Ven-Allen Lubin, who transferred to North Carolina. For a roster featuring just three seniors (one being Tyrin Lawrence, who had an extra year of eligibility), seeing so few players stick it out is a little surprising.

NCAA Basketball: NCAA Tournament Second Round-Michigan State vs North Carolina
Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
2024 preview vanderbilt roster

Even in the current era of roster turnover, it’s not easy to start from scratch. But that’s what Byington faced this spring. He brought in 10 transfers and retained two high-school recruits who signed on when Stackhouse still had the job. He also retained two scholarship players from last season.

The two returners were lightly used, but there’s long-term potential. JaQualon Roberts is a slender and bouncy combo forward capable of guarding multiple positions. Jordan Williams rarely saw minutes last season after being buried on the bench at Texas A&M, making it hard to forecast that he will have much impact this season.

Byington’s most prominent pickup is A.J. Hoggard, who started 83 games at point guard over four seasons at Michigan State. The veteran’s scoring was always been limited, but he’s boasted one of the best assist rates in the country over the past three seasons. While he’s not his best at finishing off the bounce and in ball screens, Hoggard graded out well when shooting off the catch, averaging 1.111 points per possession.

In East Lansing, Hoggard paired up nicely with a leaner combo guard. That situation might happen again when he shares the floor with North Texas transfer Jason Edwards. The sophomore averaged 19.1 points per game and is happy to hunt for offense in the mid-range. After that, Byington added Tyler Nickel, who made 39.9% of his threes at Virginia Tech and has a bigger frame at 6-foot-7. Combo forward Devin McGlockton excels as a rim finisher. And Chris Manon is a strong-bodied driver from Cornell. As an undersized five, Byington also took a flyer on Kijani Wright, a sophomore and former McDonald’s All-American. He bought with him Jaylen Carrey, a young developmental big who saw limited action as a freshman with James Madison.

NCAA Basketball: Virginia Tech at Syracuse
Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
2024 preview vanderbilt depth

Byington’s system relies on a deep bench, often going 10-deep but not blitzing the pace. His teams steadily roll bodies through. Last season, Terrence Edwards, the Sun Belt’s Player of the Year, only saw 75.6% of minutes. So, it’s unlikely that any Commodore will average 30 minutes each night, and Hoggard might be the closest to that cutoff.

After Hoggard, the rotation can go several ways. Evan Miyakawa’s BPR model isn’t all that keen on Edwards, but the ‘Dores will need some scoring punch from an on-ball creator. But if Edwards is a microwave scorer of the bench, the backcourt would rely on Nickel to consistently can jumpers, but the tradeoff is he’s not known for his defensive ability. Meanwhile, Manon is transferring from the Ivy League, and Grant Huffman arrives from Davidson. That said, Byington does not lack options.

The bigger concern is inside. Wright never established himself as a reliable interior presence at USC, and now he’s sidelined with an undisclosed health issue. Carrey saw consistent minutes as a freshman, but that was in a mid-major setting. McGlockton and Roberts each possess decent size, but neither is known for rim protection.

SCHEDULES

2024 previews vanderbilt non-conference
2024 previews vanderbilt non-conference

An example of how an MTE (multiple team event) can really impact your non-conference schedule is here with Vanderbilt and the Charleston Classic. It’s a good field, but far from a great one. If you were to guess which team has the highest team rating on EvanMiya.com you might be surprised to learn it’s VCU at 41. Vanderbilt is fortunate to draw one of the better opponents to start in Nevada, but a loss would likely send them into Quad 2 and possibly Quad 3 territory. Those aren’t the type of neutral games you want to play. Here are the Miya rankings for the remaining opponents: Miami 57, Oklahoma State 71, Seton Hall 81, Florida Atlantic 136 and Drake at 157.

A neutral site quad three game is anything over 100, and Quad 1 is anything 50 or under.

The only lock for a quad one game is the neutral site game against TCU in the USLBM Coast to Coast challenge. Vanderbilt should get plenty of Q1 chances in league play, and their schedule is fair. Getting Tennessee and Kentucky twice along with a manageable home slate is reason to think Vandy could sneak into the NCAA Tournament conversation.

THE RULING

It’s easy to imagine various outcomes, but I don’t see Vandy being as bad as it has been in recent seasons. It has the pieces to be a potent offense, but there are questions about how consistently it will defend.

Only two transfers — Huffman and M.J. Collins — shot worse than 34% from beyond the arc last season. Byington also snuck in Alex Hemenway, a proven floor spacer from Clemson, to go with Hoggard and Nickel. So, Vandy should be able to spread the floor, force hard closeouts and create gaps to attack. That would benefit Edwards and Manon. Even McGlockton can create some stress, because he shot 36.7% from 3-point range on modest volume.

Last season, Byington’s team ranked among the top 60 nationally in 3-point volume. He should have the parts to repeat that feat in Nashville.

There is enough here to see Vanderbilt contend for an NCAA Tournament berth and finish within the top six of the SEC — if things break right.

We’re not projecting that type of finish because it’s much less frequent than you imagine. Most teams using the portal to build out their entire roster are a mixture of okay and bad. When building out the roster, Byington certainly took a lot of quality players. Still, many don’t have great reputations defending, and few provide rim protection.

That’s just a tough way to live in the SEC.

My Results: Vanderbilt Commodores — 12th in Conference, 7-11


About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.

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Mizzou Hoops Player Preview: Aidan Shaw

Syndication: Wilmington Star-News
Abigail Landwehr/Columbia Daily Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK

There comes an inflection point in every player’s career, and it might arrive this season for the combo forward.

Over the weeks leading up to the season, this series will dive deep into the players we see making a push for time in the rotation for the 2024-2025 Missouri basketball squad. The pieces read like a birds-eye scouting report. They skew more toward the offensive end of the court for two reasons. First, a player’s offensive metrics are more reliable than defensive data and less team-dependent. Second, it’s considerably easier to describe a player’s qualities with more well-known offensive statistics. As always, we encourage interaction from our readers. Please drop us a comment or find me on Twitter @DataMizzou.

The film credits are given to Matt Harris. Matt has provided all of the film used in this series, and plenty more video and analysis on every player that can be found on https://rockm.plus.


The Player

Aidan Shaw now represents the most-tenured player on Missouri’s roster. The high-flying junior — known for his aerial theatrics — also represents a player at his make-or-break moment.

Shaw’s commitment to Mizzou transpired in September of 2021, and he is now the lone holdover from the Tigers’ prior coaching regime. But it wasn’t always that simple. The product of Blue Valley High School in Overland Park opened up his commitment after Cuonzo Martin’s time at Mizzou had come to a close. Dennis Gates quickly re-engaged and landed the services of the top-60 prospect that boasted offers from many high-level Division I programs.

Shaw’s career at Mizzou got off to a relatively promising start. Representing the lone freshman on a 25-win team, Shaw was eighth in the team in minutes played. He frequently found himself inserted in the season’s most significant moments. With his elite athleticism often on display, Shaw proved to be a vital role player in the season’s success.

NCAA Basketball: Mississippi at Missouri
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Entering his sophomore campaign, Shaw was called upon to fortify Mizzou’s defense and to increase his offensive punch. The results were mixed. Shaw certainly had his moments in an otherwise forgettable season. He scored in double digits three times during SEC play — all in close losses.

But there were long stretches of disengagement. For example, Shaw logged less than ten minutes on the court in four league contests despite Mizzou’s never-ending search for answers. That inconsistency brings us to what should represent a significant season in Shaw’s career at Mizzou.

Aidan has been a great ambassador for the program and is, by all accounts, a valued teammate. His performance this season will go a long way in determining how he is remembered for his play on the court.

The Numbers


Stats courtesy of Barttorvik.com.

If I told you Shaw has been highly efficient on offense while upping his minutes year over year, you might ask, “What’s the problem?”

After all, he brings a lengthy frame and elite leaping ability. Well, it’s what goes into the minutes that causes the hangup. Shaw’s usage rate of 11.5% — a slight dip from 11.7% as a frosh — is low. Incredibly low. Put another way, Shaw only finished one out of every 10 possessions for MU when he was on the floor.

A broader context also helps. According to my research, 504 players at high-major schools played at least 16 minutes per game, and Shaw’s usage ranked 498th. Put bluntly, Shaw was practically invisible when Mizzou had the ball.

True, when he got his chances he typically converted. Often, those opportunities came by cutting off the ball to offer an efficient — and high-flying — target for lobs. But other than that? Aidan was practically a non-participant.

In sum, Aidan logged 104 possessions used in Missouri’s offense, and 41 of those touches came from cuts. Most of those were lobs. Another 15 possessions were put-backs, and eight came from broken plays. That means almost two-thirds of Shaw’s offense saw him as the goal-line option. To his credit, he did those things very well and posted superlative efficiency numbers in each category.

That’s not always a bad thing, but Shaw was frustratingly absent most nights for a team searching for contributions in any given way.

Perhaps nowhere was it more glaring than his unwillingness to shoot the ball. In his first year, Aidan offered a glimpse of hope, converting 23 shots off the catch into 23 points. In his second year? He attempted all of two catch-and-shoot jumpers. A hesitancy to let it rip evolved into a full-on personal red light. Below is an exhaustive highlight of every shot he attempted off the catch in 2023-24.

In some ways, Aidan profiled as a true center. There’s the inability — or outright unwillingness — to hoist up open jumpers. There’s the elite rim finishing, including competent work as a roller out of ball screens. (You can see that in the clips below). At the other end, he’s a competent rebounder and rim protector.

It would be a welcome development if Shaw were willing to expand his game. He cannot create on the ball — most players his size do — but he has the opportunity to offer a much broader base. Whether it’s the desire to shoot open jumpers off the catch or to execute short rolls out of ball screens with a little push shot, there are a multitude of ways for him to become more involved. We’ve said he should look westward at Kansas’ KJ Adams as a template.

While this year’s roster projects to have more — and hopefully better — higher usage options, being able to offer more to the team on offense would prove valuable.

The reason for the insistence on becoming a viable offense player is simple: Shaw’s defense is worth playing. His frame and vertical pop are ideal for an up-tempo team. Shaw has proven to be a menace when providing teammates with defensive assistance. Whether he shoots over from a weakside help position or switches onto a different position, he does more than hold his own.

If there is an area to critique defensively, it may be his ability to defend players when left on an island. It’s not a weakness, necessarily. But rather an area for improvement.

The Role

While this preview may seem negative, it isn’t meant to be this way.

Shaw possesses all the tools to play — a lot. However, there comes a point where potential must translate into reliable production nightly. Last season, Shaw’s positional group was in a state of transition, and there was an opportunity for him to take firm hold of the job. That didn’t happen.

Mizzou’s roster has undergone a fairly significant makeover. If Aidan is seen as a true center, newcomers such as Josh Gray, Peyton Marshall and Trent Burns figure to compete for minutes there. If he’s seen more as a hybrid forward, Mark Mitchell, Marcus Allen and Jacob Crews will compete with Trent Pierce, who also seeks to reestablish himself. Mitchell and Allen both profile as flexible switch defenders in MU’s system.

It’s no longer enough for Aidan to garner spot duty by putting out fires on defense and occasionally chipping in on offense. Too many hungry mouths have accumulated to settle for a part-time player.

NCAA Basketball: Central Arkansas at Missouri
Denny Medley-Imagn Images

As it stands, I see Shaw in the mix with players like Pierce and Allen vying for a spot at the back end of Mizzou’s rotation. My projections have him at 12th in minutes due primarily to his hesitancy to up his offensive engagement.

However, should that mentality — and production change — Aidan can shoot well up the depth chart. His menacing defense and otherworldly rim-finishing are characteristics tailor-made for a team that figures to play at top speed for 40 minutes. He has to commit to doing things his top competitors will be willing to do. If he does, Aidan can genuinely deliver on the promise that he’s had since he first pledged to the Tigers three years ago.


PPP: Points Per Possession
Min %: This is simply the percentage of minutes played by a given player.
Usage %: A measure of personal possessions used while player is on the court. This includes making a shot, missing a shot coupled with a defensive rebound and a turnover.
eFG%: Same as traditional FG% with the added bonus of 3-point shots given 50% more weight to account for additional point.
OR%: The percentage of possible offensive rebounds a player gets.
DR%: The percentage of possible defensive rebounds a player gets.
AST%: Assists divided by field goals made by player’s teammates while on the court.
TO%: The percentage of personal possessions a player uses on turnovers.
FTR%: A rate which measures a player’s ability to get to the free throw line.
FT%: Free Throw shooting percentage.
2PT%: 2-point field goal percentage.
3PT% 3-point field goal percentage.

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Auburn Tigers Preview

Oklahoma v Auburn
Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images

It’s time to make a statement.

As much as we all wanted to feel…something? anything?…after the UMass game, that matchup was never going to provide anything to the fan base, other than maybe a few highlights and an official win blessed by the NCAA.

But here’s the game that can give you something. Vindication. Hope. A chance to wash out the bad taste of A&M. A validation of those holding out to the thought that Missouri is a Playoff-caliber team that had one of the worst singular days in recent history.

But it requires beating an Auburn team that is much better than its record indicates and has not lost to Missouri since 1973.

Here’s the preview I did of Auburn back in June. Here’s the breakdown for this week:

When Missouri Has the Ball

Missouri’s Offense vs. Auburn’s Defense

So the bad news first: Auburn’s defense is excellent. Currently 25th in SP+, it’s almost as if they were designed specifically to eliminate Mizzou’s offense. Specifically, Mizzou is an efficiency-based offense that runs the ball and throws short, hoping for YAC to move the chains. And Auburn’s defense likes to stop the easy stuff, play tight coverage to keep completion percentages low, and create a lot of pressure to keep the quarterback on the move.

The last time Missouri played a defense ranked inside the SP+ Top 30, they were totally wiped out and held to 10 points. Let’s hope this time it goes better.

Be Efficient Through The Air

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 12 Missouri at UMass
Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Missouri will run the ball because that’s what they always do, but Auburn ranks 18th in yards per successful rush and 25th in opportunity rate allowed. So if the Good Guy Tigers can’t be their usual efficient selves on the ground then they’re going to have to do it through the air. If they can eclipse the season-long average of 38% success that Auburn currently has that would be great; let’s set the bar at 42% and see what happens.

Generate Explosive Plays

NCAA Football: Missouri at Massachusetts
Eric Canha-Imagn Images

I cannot stress enough how perfectly bad this matchup is for Mizzou. Auburn plays to remove efficiency and allow explosives, and Kirby’s offenses this year only have efficiency and very little (or reliable) explosiveness. But it has to happen to have success against this defense! I’ll set the goal at seven (7) explosive plays…but it probably needs to be higher if the efficiency stuff isn’t working.

Finish Your Drives

NCAA Football: Missouri at Massachusetts
Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Auburn doesn’t give up a ton of scoring opportunities and, when they do, they’re 26th in the country at limiting the damage. The Bad Guy Tigers have given up point totals of 21, 19, 24, 27, and 31 against FBS competition. However, in that same time span their offense has scored 14, 45, 14, 21, and 13. The point is, Mizzou doesn’t need much but they need to capitalize. 24 points sounds right! So, if Mizzou maintains Auburn’s average of 3.6 points give up per opportunity, then they need to generate 8 scoring opportunities.

When Auburn Has the Ball

Missouri’s Defense vs. Auburn’s Offense

Despite juggling quarterbacks Auburn’s offense is a lot better than you’d think it is. The problem, of course, is that it needs explosive plays to function properly and, much like 3-pointers in basketball, those are not always reliable. The ground game is the efficiency mechanism while the passing game gets the big plays and that is a recipe that can certainly work against a Mizzou defense that doesn’t generate a ton of pressure and is prone to getting lit up over the top.

Win On 3rd Down

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 12 Missouri at UMass
Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Again, you wouldn’t think of it when you hear stories of Auburn’s offensive ineptitude, but they’re really not that bad at moving the ball. The issues are three-fold: they aren’t very good on 3rd-down, they stink inside the red zone, and they tend to have a crippling turnover when they absolutely cannot afford to. And, with that in mind, let’s make sure that Auburn’s 3rd-down woes continue through this game. On the year Auburn’s offense has a 41.3% success rate while Missouri is allowing a 27.8% conversion rate; let’s aim to get that to under 38% for the game.

Limit the Scoring Damage

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 12 Missouri at UMass
Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Even if Missouri can’t force a turnover or stop them on 3rd-down, at least make sure that the points scored are minimal. Mizzou’s defense isn’t super great at this, allowing 4.38 points per scoring opportunity. But even with Auburn’s foibles inside the 20-yard line, they are still averaging 4.55 points per opportunity. Keep the trips short and the points low and hopefully they can keep Auburn to 3 scoring opportunities at around 4.5 points per opportunity.

Conclusion

This is going to be rough. Because of their record and the opponents they’ve lost to, outsiders are going to write this Auburn team off as having no chance at doing anything on the road against Missouri. But, again, even in their losses they had a 93% win expectancy against Arkansas and a 74% win expectancy against Oklahoma, meaning their adjusted record is (with some rounding) 4-2. You wouldn’t overlook a 4-2 team, right?

The common denominator in their losses was a key turnover that flipped the game on its head. And while Peyton Thorne and Hank Brown are not very good quarterbacks when it comes to ball security, they are still competent at running this offense. If the turnovers don’t occur then Mizzou’s defense will need to be much better at creating pressure and disrupting the pass than they have shown in the first six games. And, offensively, Luther and Theo and Mookie need to show an ability to reliably move the chains as an answer to a killer Auburn defensive front.

I don’t feel good about this one at all but, hey, at least its at home (which means Eli is allowed to win it). This is a chance for Drinkwitz and his Tigers to make a statement on how the rest of this year goes. Just win.

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Thanks Hugh, for the extra motivation


The Morning Commute for Wednesday, October 16th

Welcome to the Morning Commute

Today we’re talking about bulletin board material.

Motivating a football team to get “up” for a game is an artform as old as the game itself. Sometimes an upcoming opponent says something that is truly ignorant and riles your team up (anyone remember “old man football” by Sheldon Richardson before playing Georgia?), sometimes it’s an innocent comment that gets blown out of context, and sometimes stuff is just flat made up in the form of propaganda.

If you hadn’t seen/heard, Auburn Coach Hugh Freeze held his Monday media presser and tried to hand a compliment down to Mizzou’s Eliah Drinkwitz. However, it didn’t come out quite right, because when he complimented Drink for doing a great job of building the program, he said that Drink has done so despite having a “lesser roster in recruiting.”

I’m going to give Freeze the benefit of the doubt and believe he truly meant it as a platitude but just did so in a poorly-worded effort. Either way, you know that those words are plastered all over the football complex this week to light a fire under the Mizzou players’ feet. Not that they needed extra motivation knowing what is still within reach for this team, but that little turn of phrase was probably a welcome sight for the Mizzou coaches.

This kind of bulletin board material can give, as in this instance, and it can take away, as it worked against Mizzou just a couple weeks ago leading into the Texas A&M game. If you’ll recall, Brady Cook was asked about the crowd noise he anticipated dealing with at Kyle Field, and he gave an answer about how loud they make practice with crowd noise piped in over big speakers. He said he felt practice was louder than any game, and he clearly didn’t mean that as a slight of Texas A&M fans – he was just saying that they prepare in a way where they try to make it harder in practice than it is in the game.

But that didn’t stop pundits from taking his comments out of context and presenting it as if Brady had said practice is louder and tougher than it will be at A&M. That’s not what he said, and definitely was not what he’d meant. Lesson learned I’m sure about being very intentional about the words you use.

Talk about this subject always reminds me of an instance long ago with the master of disingenuous bulletin board material – Bob Stoops at Oklahoma.

In 2002 when Oklahoma played at Mizzou (this was Brad Smith’s redshirt freshman year), there was news surfacing from Norman that reporters down there had seen signs posted in the OU team facilities that had Mizzou players talking smack about how they were going to beat the Sooners that week.

We found out about it because the local Mizzou media asked our coaches and players about those remarks. Problem was, none of our guys said anything of the sort. This was in the early stages of Gary Pinkel’s tenure when we were very reserved in all comments to the media. It was completely fabricated by OU coaches/staffers as a way to motivate the Sooners in a game they were heavily favored in.

I get why coaches do that stuff, but it really pissed me off at the time because then our guys were blindsided by the questions from the media. But in the end, Mizzou got the last laugh as we nearly pulled off the upset in a classic game against #3 OU, before falling by a 31-24 final score.

To each, his own I guess.


Did you see how Oregon brilliantly manipulated the rule book at the end of their 32-31 win over Ohio State Saturday? The Ducks were clinging to that one-point lead, and Ohio State was driving for a game-winning field goal attempt as time was winding down.

The Buckeyes had the ball at the Oregon 43-yardline on a 3rd down snap with just :10 seconds left to play. OSU had a timeout left, so they could use the whole field and needed maybe 10-15 more yards to have a decent shot at a walk-off game-winner.

Prior to the 3rd down snap, Oregon called a timeout. When they came back , Oregon took the field with 12 players, and Dan Lanning has confirmed that it was done so intentionally. Ohio State snapped the ball and threw an incomplete pass because it’s hard to find someone open when you’ve got 12 defenders. More importantly, four precious seconds ticked off the clock, leaving just :06 seconds left.

Yes, Oregon got called for the 5-yard penalty, but that only moved the ball to the Oregon 38-yardline, which would have left a 55-yard field goal attempt by OSU. Oregon gambled that Buckeye Coach Ryan Day didn’t have the kicker to make that long of a kick, and they were right, because OSU ran one more play.

And if you saw how the game ended, it ended when OSU QB Will Howard scrambled and slid on the Oregon 26, but he did so with no time left, so they couldn’t use a timeout to set up the shorter field goal try.

Because a 12-man penalty is a live ball foul, Oregon knew that the 3rd down play that didn’t count would still burn some clock, and that stroke of genius worked to perfection since Howard couldn’t get down in time on the ensuing play. It was a big gamble and it’s not something we’ll likely see too often, but it sure worked this time.

I do wonder if the rules committee will look at this going forward and try to make this penalty a dead ball foul, because doing this the way Oregon did clearly manipulated the rule book. I commend Oregon for doing it, because they used the rules to their favor. I just wonder if it will be allowed in the future?


Here’s this week’s hilarious SEC Shorts video.


Yesterday at Rock M and Rock M+

It was cool to see some younger guys get in on the action and have this one comfortably put away early, but for the most part the W is the only real thing to take away from this game. Nothing done during the course of this game gave you any insight of foresight to predict how the rest of the year will go. So don’t sweat anything about this game.

As Nate writes, good job Tigers, way to take care of business. Now, we’ll see what this team really has under the hood this Saturday when the talent level is more even.


I wish I had some more humorous or profound observations on what this game means in the context of Mizzou’s season or its story as a program… but that’s not the point of filler! It’s not to teach us anything or to explore any meaningful depth of life (or football). It’s there to fill a slot on the schedule. And that’s it. It’s not good, it’s not bad. But it is there.

He said what we were all thinking. We all watched the game because we had to, not because we were all that excited about it. Let’s hope these types of games are a thing of the past going forward.


The Sooners only lost three players to graduation or expiring eligibility, but five others hit the transfer portal. And of those five, three were among the Sooners’ leading scorers. Losing that sort of production from players who have been in your program and developed could signal some NIL struggles.

Sounds like a bit of a rebuild situation for the Sooners. You hate to see that. But more than that, you love to see that.


  • Tuesday’s morning commute gave updates on Mizzou’s football TV schedule, volleyball weekly awards and some men’s hoops predictions.

  • It’s election season, so time to cast your vote in the weekly SBN Reacts poll that asks Tiger fans to chime in on their confidence with the rest of the season.




Rock M Radio: Before the Box Score reviews the UMass dub


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SEC Hoops Preview: Oklahoma Sooners

NCAA Basketball: Jumpman Invitational-North Carolina at Oklahoma
Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Previewing the Oklahoma Sooners in their first SEC season. Will Porter Moser surpass meager expectations?

Welcome to the SEC, Oklahoma!

It might take a little time to get reacquainted with the old Big 7, Big 8, and Big 12 rival. Missouri and Oklahoma met for the first time in 1949 and played at least once every year until the Tigers departed for the SEC in 2012. They’ve played 140 times as conference foes, with the Sooners owning the slightest of edges. There have also been three more meetings since MU decamped for the SEC, including a first-round tilt during the 2021 NCAA Tournament, with OU claiming all of them.

The OU tradition is proud: 33 NCAA Tournaments, five Final Fours, and 14 conference titles. However, only one of those titles came in the last 35 seasons, and the Sooners have struggled to regain their footing after Buddy Hield led them to a Final Four in 2016. Since then, they’ve made the field of 68 three times but never won more than 20 games.

When Lon Kruger stepped aside, the program turned to Porter Moster, one of the hottest names on the coaching carousel. However, it’s been tough sledding since he arrived in Norman. After a 13-1 start last season, OU tailed off to an 8-10 finish in the Big 12, a quick exit from their conference tournament, and missing the big dance for a third consecutive season.

What’s in store for the Sooners as they transition to a new league?


Previous SEC Previews

Providence v Oklahoma
Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

Oklahoma Sooners

Last season: 20 – 12 (8-10 in conference) #46

The Masses Prediction: 13th in conference, 5.2 – 12.8

SEC Media: 15th in conference

Analytics Average: 11th in conference, 44th overall

NCAA Basketball: Oklahoma at Iowa State
Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

HEAD COACH: Porter Moser | 4th Season, 54-45

Moser’s resume is an excellent example of how a coach’s evolution requires patience. Shortly after his playing days ended at Creighton, he quickly transitioned to the bench. By the late ‘90s, he landed at UALR, taking the head gig in 2000. A decent run in Little Rock led to a modest jump to Illinois State in the Missouri Valley, but Moser was out after four seasons.

But Moser started rehabbing his rep by spending four years on Rick Majerus’ staff at Saint Louis. From there, he jumped to Loyola Chicago, a moribund program in the Horizon League. When he arrived in 2011, the Ramblers had made just one trip to the dance since 1969. You know what happened next: a steady build that culminated with a Final Four run in 2018 and a Sweet 16 trip in 2021.

The success could have landed Moser at just about any job, but he took the OU gig. Despite a bumpy three years, Moser is still one of the most respected basketball coaches in the country.

2024 preview Oklahoma 10 year look

He inherited a program that has been just as likely to miss the dance as it is to see its name pop up on Selection Sunday. The Sooners have never cratered, but they haven’t been a legitimate threat in a deep Big 12. They’ve just sorted of drifted toward the middle of the pack.

Maybe in this way a move to the SEC will benefit the program, perhaps some level of variance?

LOST PRODUCTION

% Minutes: 74.62% | 12th
% Points: 74.38% | 12th
% Possessions: 74.16% | 12th

Suppose you’re missing the NCAA Tournament by a hair and have a team led mainly by non-seniors. Traditionally, you’d expect to retain that talent, nurture your core, and return stronger. But these days, the transfer portal and NIL can turn that middling (but developing) roster on its head.

It’s precisely what happened in Norman.

The Sooners only lost three players to graduation or expiring eligibility, but five others hit the transfer portal. And of those five, three were among the Sooners’ leading scorers. Losing that sort of production from players who have been in your program and developed could signal some NIL struggles.

Milos Uzan went to Houston, Otega Oweh landed at Kentucky, and Javian McCollum landed at Georgia Tech.

NCAA Basketball: Houston at Oklahoma
Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
2024 preview Oklahoma roster

Returning about 25% of production from a bubble team isn’t ideal, especially when you’re gearing up to join a new conference.

Jalon Moore is the only returner of substance, and he was a role player last season as a small-ball four. At 6-foot-7 and 220 pounds, he’s not exactly a frontcourt piece you can build around. His best role offensively is without the ball, capitalizing on kick-outs and timely cuts to the rim.

So, who does Moser have as a focal point?

The best bet is Duke Miles, a transfer point guard from High Point. If High Point sounds obscure, you aren’t deeply invested in the Big South Conference, where the Panthers are coming off their best season in ages under new head coach Alan Huss, a former Creighton assistant. HPU’s offense relied on Miles as a crafty operator in pick-and-rolls and handoffs to apply pressure on the rim. Miles also shot 36% from 3-point range but on a relatively modest 3.1 attempts per game.

Outside of Miles, there isn’t another proven offensive threat. Jeff Nwanko, one of the better JUCO prospects nationally, might have filled that void, but he tore his Achilles tendon during summer workouts.

The Sooners tried to add other impact players but saw transfers like Sean Pedulla and Kadary Richmond opt for bigger paydays elsewhere. This left Moser scrambling to add players who would otherwise be depth pieces on a high-major roster. Mohamed Wague is a big who logged seasons at Alabama and West Virginia. Jadon Jones averaged roughly 12 points per game at Long Beach State. Kobe Elvis was a fine rotational player on quality Dayton squads.

The lack of playmakers led OU to take a chance on Jeremiah Fears, a four-star point guard who decommitted from Illinois to reclassify into the 2024 cycle. Fears looks to score first, but I’m skeptical of younger players like him making a quick impression.

High Point v Longwood
Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images
2024 preview Oklahoma depth

The funky nature of Porter’s retooling effort makes it tricky to project the Sooners’ rotation.

The players he’s likely to rely on are all up-transfers, and with that comes variance. Often, those players sacrifice some combination of minutes and usage to maintain their efficiency. But that also assumes the roster they’ve joined retained some reliable pieces. Meanwhile, lateral transfers — like Wague or Glenn Taylor Jr. — often turn into production that mirrors what they did at their last stop.

So, a lot has to swing the Sooners’ way for this to go right.

At least you have Moore, who reached double figures of 13 of 18 games during Big 12 play. (Granted, he only eclipsed 20 points twice.) The key for Moore is his inconsistent and sparse three-point shooting. While he did shoot 41% from three-point range, it only happened with 61 attempts. If Moore can find a way to double his catch-and-shoot opportunities, he would slot more easily into the secondary scorer role behind Miles.

Matters are trickier at combo guard and on the wing. OU has bodies, but none boast a history of heavy production on a high-major roster. Taylor, who started at Oregon State, improved his efficiency with St. John’s last season, which could translate into a more prominent role for Moser. But that might be a bigger ask for imports like Elvis and Jones.

Projections for BPR on Mohamed Wague are pretty high, but it’s hard to envision him getting the lion’s share of playing time when he averaged 10 minutes at West Virginia and 8 minutes at Alabama.

2024 preview oklahoma non-conference
2024 preview oklahoma conference

Oklahoma has just a single Quad-1 game currently in their non-conference schedule. A meeting with Providence at the Battle 4 Atlantis looms large. Win that, and the Sooners will likely face Arizona for a second high-quality matchup. Lose, and you’re likely getting Davidson.

We’re using preseason ratings to project where teams will land in various quads, and there’s always a chance reality leads to a tougher schedule. Still, Oklahoma State is rebuilding under Steve Lutz and picked to finish toward the bottom of the Big 12. Georgia Tech will likely scrap to reach the middle of the standings in a weaker ACC. And who knows where Michigan winds up in its first season with Dusty May at the helm.

However, the SEC didn’t grant any scheduling favors. The Sooners’ road opponents have an average rank of 30.3 in analytic models, which puts pressure on OU to be tough at home.

THE RULING

I still fully believe in Moser’s ability as a good- and possibly great – coach. But are his bosses and boosters fully invested in his program? Even if there wasn’t reporting about the program’s NIL issues, the exodus of talent would strongly imply questions about adequate funding for a payroll. And these days, you can’t entirely separate NIL from a coach’s schematic acumen.

Either Moser is a poor recruiter, or he has a smaller bankroll. After the Sooners missed multiple prospects, they secured Miles, Taylor, and others to stem the bleeding. But it’s challenging to look at the quality level of this roster in comparison to others in the SEC and think the Sooners are set up for success.

Despite my reservations, I believe Moser can maximize the potential of the current roster to ensure their competitiveness. Oklahoma can be expected to excel defensively, execute well on offense, take good shots, and minimize errors.

The starting point might be better than anticipated if Miles can efficiently eat up possessions. This would give Moser the flexibility to adjust his offense away from a questionable front line and towards a collective effort among his perimeter players.

However, this would also necessitate a change in Moser’s coaching philosophy. While he has never prioritized outside shooting, this might be the group to experiment with it, a shift that could potentially redefine the team’s playing style.

Although Moser has never been the type to prioritize outside shooting, this might be the group to do that with. For example, here are the best 3-point shooting seasons from potential members of his rotation:

  • Moore: 41%
  • Miles: 47.1%
  • Elvis: 41.9%
  • Jones: 44.4%
  • Taylor: 42.4%
  • Goodine: 46.7%

Last season, OU attempted 38.5% of their FGA from outside the 3-point arc, which is average for a Division-I team. Moser should look to get up over 40%, which should be enough of an efficiency boost to get the Sooners into the NCAA Tournament conversation. All that would be left is to not get killed on defense, and you should be able to trust Moser to handle that part.

Hope isn’t lost here, but it would help the coach and the program if he didn’t have to connect that many dots to make the team competitive.

My Results: Oklahoma Sooners — 13th in Conference, 7-11


About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.

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