Dive into the Heart of Mizzou Athletics

After a historic gut-punch against Texas A&M, the rest of MU’s 2024 campaign will be defined by everything after it, starting with a trip to UMass.

“The sky is not falling.”

One, correct. The sky is, in fact, not falling. Two, and more importantly, this quote from Eli Drinkwitz needs context.

Last Saturday proved to be an inflection point for the Tigers. Any semblance of a Mizzou hype train got run out of College Station; Texas A&M dominated everything, everywhere, all the time. Conner Weigman thoroughly outplayed Brady Cook, who was also under siege for most of the afternoon; both things can be true. Texas A&M generated 16 pressures; Mizzou only had four. On “big” plays — runs of 10+ yards and passes of 15+ yards — the Aggies had 15, including a 75-yard touchdown run by Le’Veon Moss on the first play of the second half.

It’s not like Mizzou was the only highly-ranked team to tumble on Saturday. Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan and USC, all of whom were ranked in the top-12 prior to Saturday, all fell to unranked foes. Widening the scope a bit, every single team in college football has already had its gut checked at some point. Even powerhouses Texas and Ohio State, whose smallest margins of defeat have each been greater than 20 points thus far, were in tight battles with Mississippi State and Iowa, teams that were supposed to be taken care of easily. Essentially, MU wasn’t in unfamiliar company.

The difference was that, unlike the other defeated giants, Mizzou was trounced from the get-go; its 24-0 halftime deficit was its greatest since 2021. Through five games, the Tigers look more like a contender for the Music City Bowl rather than the College Football Playoff. It’s why Drinkwitz felt the need to say that the sky, which has existed as long as the universe, was not going to do something it had never done in almost 14 billion years.

In a sense, a new season has begun for Mizzou, one that’s been jumpstarted by major adversity. The new season has started on a somewhat positive note; Drinkwitz, who took responsibility for the loss numerous times, seemed pleased with his team’s demeanor postgame.

“What gives me a lot of confidence in our football team and our staff is the way we handled ourselves after the game,” Drinkwitz said. “It wasn’t finger-pointing. There was not assigning blame. There was no, we call it B.C.D., blame, complain or defend poor performance. There was a responsibility accepting of ‘hey, I had ownership in this’.”

Between Drinkwitz and the players, alignment in how the team will move forward is clear.

“The best always tell themselves the truth,” Drinkwitz said. “You have to tell yourself the truth of your performance on Saturday. You have to take responsibility for that,”

A few minutes later, senior linebacker Corey Flagg Jr. said almost the exact same thing. Although he kept up his streak of not missing a tackle as a stalwart at the second level, he registered his lowest PFF grade of the season (64.7).

“(Improving) just comes to being honest with yourself, just like real-life scenarios,” Flagg said. “If you’re going through something and something’s not going your way, you have to be honest with yourself, see what you can do better. And that’s just what we have to do as a team.”

One of the defense’s biggest problem areas was maintaining gap integrity. Rushers would oftentimes either get jammed at the line of scrimmage or fly out of position, creating plenty of open running lanes for the Aggies.

“I think it was just a lot of guys…trying to make a play instead of just, including myself, instead of just doing our assignment, doing our job and playing with the defense,” Flagg said.

Offensively, one of the biggest issues plaguing Mizzou through five games is its failure to avoid third down. The Tigers are averaging 16.6 third downs faced per game, tied for the fourth-most in the nation, and they faced 16 against Texas A&M. Not only that, Mizzou’s average yards-to-go on third down was a whopping 9.56; MU needed to gain 15+ yards on third down as many times as it needed to gain five or less (4). In those situations, Texas A&M feasted.

“We were in predominantly third-and-long,” Drinkwitz said. “which allows (the defense) to get into a heavy blitz package.”

Not too long after, center Connor Tollison highlighted the same aspect in regards to what caused Mizzou’s offensive stinker.

“I just think we got behind the sticks and got in obvious pass down situations,” Tollison said.

There isn’t a perfect positive correlation between facing few third downs and success. Purdue and UCLA, who are both 1-4, are in the bottom 20 in third downs faced. But many high-flying offenses like Alabama, Miami (FL), Oregon, Indiana, UNLV, Army and Navy are also in that group. Part of what’s made them so successful is that they’re adept at avoiding third down altogether, placing defenses in unpredictable spots. Mizzou was the opposite on Saturday.

Some positive historical news for MU is that, under Drinkwitz, the Tigers have rarely ever let losses snowball into long losing streaks. Mizzou is 8-7 after a loss since 2020, and a three-game losing streak in 2022 was its only instance of more than two consecutive defeats.

There’s also been a blueprint for a highly-touted team bouncing back from a 31-point loss. No. 10 Clemson was dismantled 34-3 by No. 5 Georgia in Week 1, but the defeat has been remedied by the Tigers averaging 48.5 points per game in four straight wins. Level of competition notwithstanding — neither Appalachian State, NC State, Stanford or Florida State has a winning record — Clemson’s response has been exactly what it’d likely hoped for and then some.

Can Mizzou do the same? Probably not at the level Clemson has reached, but it’s possible to right the ship like the other Tigers have. Drinkwitz & Co. have been saying the right things that entail a sturdy foundation that can push Mizzou back into the CFP conversation.

However, it’s clear that the Tigers know something else: they can preach positive ideals like a religious leader, but it won’t matter if they don’t improve on the field. Mizzou is a 27.5-point favorite against UMass, but in a college football season filled with surprises, taking care of business has become much more valuable. The Tigers have a chance to not only do that on Saturday, but begin a new chapter of their season.

“This week, I had a very clear and direct message with our team,” Drinkwitz said. “One bad day doesn’t define our team or our season. Our response will.”

Analyzing Mizzou’s upcoming opponent with an analytics-based deep dive into the scouting and matchups that have this game in the balance.

I have mostly used this space so far to examine interesting matchups in Mizzou’s games, using an analytics mindset. That allows me to focus on specific things Missouri has done well (or poorly), or specific situations or position groups where they will have the advantage or need to shore up for this opponent.

The last few entries have been a bit frusrating and redundant to write. There’s only so many ways I can plead with a team to find the explosive plays and to finish their dang drives.

So with an opponent like UMass, finding a compelling matchup can be a challenge, even in a disappointing stretch of performance for Mizzou. The Tigers will far outclass the Minutemen on Saturday. This is closer to an FCS matchup than anything. In Bill Connelly’s comprehensive college football ratings, of every program in America, UMass ranks 141st, behind twenty different FCS teams. They are only one behind Missouri State.

UMass is going to be able to do much to disrupt Mizzou. Don Brown’s outfit will want to run the ball, slow the game to a crawl, and keep it a low possession affair. Quarterback Taison Phommachanh is like a poor man’s Thomas Castellanos, scrambling when necessary and hitting the occasional deep ball. But he, and the infrastructure around him, is not enough to threaten Mizzou’s defense. At 107th overall in the country, this is one of the worst offenses in the sport.

UMass is pretty terrible on offense, but marginally better on defense. This is because of their back seven, which has been respectably middle of the pack this season. But it’s possible their numbers are halfway-decent because their rush defense is so bad. Opponents tend to just keep things simple against the Minutemen: Their defense ranks exactly 100th in Rush Rate Over Expected, Parker Fleming’s metric which measures how often a team runs (or faces a run), adjusted by down and distance situations.

Their defense is in the 23rd percentile preventing EPA per rush play, but 60th for pass play. As one of the worst Havoc creating teams in the country (fifth percentile), they will be quite accommodating. Mizzou will be able to be able to do whatever they want.

So what will they want to do? For me, there are two things I’d especially like to see — that is, if you don’t count “score a whole bunch of points, hopefully early.”

1. The Tigers shouldn’t need to break out any called quarterback runs to win this game… but maybe they should anyway

Bringing that extra +1 into the run game is important for close matchups in college, but Mizzou can win this one on paper without it entirely. Considering the recent play, though, I’d like to see a few successful Brady Cook called rushes. In the past two games, Brady has had his number called in the huddle six times for -5 total yards. In his previous 44 games, Cook had never finished the game with negative yards on designed rushes. That’s happened now in the last two. Mizzou might not need him as a weapon for this one, but they will need his legs in almost every game down the line.

2. I’d like to see a touchdown on the opening drive – the scripted possession

It would be a big intangible boost for an offense that has been out of sorts and just got completely shut down one week ago. But it would also help restore some faith in Kirby Moore’s game planning and calling.

The scripted drives have been poor for Missouri this year. In his Mizzou career, Kirby has called 16 games against FBS opponents. Four of those sixteen have resulted in touchdowns, all of them last year. This year Mizzou has not found the end zone on the opening drive against an FBS opponent.

More concerningly, the Tigers are just not getting down the field. On 12 openers last year, Moore’s outfit picked up 59% of the available yards; this year, that number is down to 41%.

There are some pet theories. Certainly, crowd noise and travel has been a factor in only one of these games. Brady Cook being secretly injured is a popular choice. I still believe the offense is struggling to adapt to the new helmet communication system and using them to play with tempo and confidence. Perhaps the playbook in general has been scouted, and teams have better counters than they did last season. If so, Moore and Drinkwitz will need to devise some counters to the counters.

Whatever the reason, the Tigers are not taking advantage of the chance to start the game with a clean, fresh drive before a defense makes adjustments. They should try to turn that around in the second half of the season.