Analyzing Mizzou’s upcoming opponent with an analytics-based deep dive into the scouting and matchups that have this game in the balance.

I have mostly used this space so far to examine interesting matchups in Mizzou’s games, using an analytics mindset. That allows me to focus on specific things Missouri has done well (or poorly), or specific situations or position groups where they will have the advantage or need to shore up for this opponent.

The last few entries have been a bit frusrating and redundant to write. There’s only so many ways I can plead with a team to find the explosive plays and to finish their dang drives.

So with an opponent like UMass, finding a compelling matchup can be a challenge, even in a disappointing stretch of performance for Mizzou. The Tigers will far outclass the Minutemen on Saturday. This is closer to an FCS matchup than anything. In Bill Connelly’s comprehensive college football ratings, of every program in America, UMass ranks 141st, behind twenty different FCS teams. They are only one behind Missouri State.

UMass is going to be able to do much to disrupt Mizzou. Don Brown’s outfit will want to run the ball, slow the game to a crawl, and keep it a low possession affair. Quarterback Taison Phommachanh is like a poor man’s Thomas Castellanos, scrambling when necessary and hitting the occasional deep ball. But he, and the infrastructure around him, is not enough to threaten Mizzou’s defense. At 107th overall in the country, this is one of the worst offenses in the sport.

UMass is pretty terrible on offense, but marginally better on defense. This is because of their back seven, which has been respectably middle of the pack this season. But it’s possible their numbers are halfway-decent because their rush defense is so bad. Opponents tend to just keep things simple against the Minutemen: Their defense ranks exactly 100th in Rush Rate Over Expected, Parker Fleming’s metric which measures how often a team runs (or faces a run), adjusted by down and distance situations.

Their defense is in the 23rd percentile preventing EPA per rush play, but 60th for pass play. As one of the worst Havoc creating teams in the country (fifth percentile), they will be quite accommodating. Mizzou will be able to be able to do whatever they want.

So what will they want to do? For me, there are two things I’d especially like to see — that is, if you don’t count “score a whole bunch of points, hopefully early.”

1. The Tigers shouldn’t need to break out any called quarterback runs to win this game… but maybe they should anyway

Bringing that extra +1 into the run game is important for close matchups in college, but Mizzou can win this one on paper without it entirely. Considering the recent play, though, I’d like to see a few successful Brady Cook called rushes. In the past two games, Brady has had his number called in the huddle six times for -5 total yards. In his previous 44 games, Cook had never finished the game with negative yards on designed rushes. That’s happened now in the last two. Mizzou might not need him as a weapon for this one, but they will need his legs in almost every game down the line.

2. I’d like to see a touchdown on the opening drive – the scripted possession

It would be a big intangible boost for an offense that has been out of sorts and just got completely shut down one week ago. But it would also help restore some faith in Kirby Moore’s game planning and calling.

The scripted drives have been poor for Missouri this year. In his Mizzou career, Kirby has called 16 games against FBS opponents. Four of those sixteen have resulted in touchdowns, all of them last year. This year Mizzou has not found the end zone on the opening drive against an FBS opponent.

More concerningly, the Tigers are just not getting down the field. On 12 openers last year, Moore’s outfit picked up 59% of the available yards; this year, that number is down to 41%.

There are some pet theories. Certainly, crowd noise and travel has been a factor in only one of these games. Brady Cook being secretly injured is a popular choice. I still believe the offense is struggling to adapt to the new helmet communication system and using them to play with tempo and confidence. Perhaps the playbook in general has been scouted, and teams have better counters than they did last season. If so, Moore and Drinkwitz will need to devise some counters to the counters.

Whatever the reason, the Tigers are not taking advantage of the chance to start the game with a clean, fresh drive before a defense makes adjustments. They should try to turn that around in the second half of the season.