Dive into the Heart of Mizzou Athletics

After a freshman year to forget, Mizzou’s talented sophomore looks to boost his stock and reassert himself as a key member of the Tigers’ rotation.

Over the weeks leading up to the season, this series will dive deep into the players we see making a push for time in the rotation for the 2024-2025 Missouri basketball squad. The pieces read like a birds-eye scouting report. They skew more toward the offensive end of the court for two reasons. First, a player’s offensive metrics are more reliable than defensive data and less team-dependent. Second, it’s considerably easier to describe a player’s qualities with more well-known offensive statistics. As always, we encourage interaction from our readers. Please drop us a comment or find me on Twitter @DataMizzou.

The film credits are given to Matt Harris. Matt has provided all of the film used in this series, and plenty more video and analysis on every player that can be found on https://rockm.plus.

The Player

“The best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores.” While the lighthearted nature of the quote is understood, there’s also an element of truth to it. Perhaps it’s also the best light to view Trent Pierce’s career so far.

Pierced joined Missouri after a successful high school career in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and a brief stopover at AZ Compass Prep, where he teamed up with another future Tiger in Marcus Allen. His success on the court led to many high-major programs pursuing him and his lofty top-100 ranking in 247Sports’ composite index.

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Pierce’s freshman year in black and gold was forgettable, to put it mildly. The jumbo wing struggled to knock down jumpers and saw his season interrupted by a lengthy illness. When a team only manages eight wins, those struggles get magnified.

However, Pierce has stayed the course. In an era where the slightest blip of adversity will send players straight to the transfer portal, Pierce still trusts the vision laid out for him by coach Dennis Gates. How he capitalizes on that near term will almost assuredly dictate his place as a Mizzou Tiger.

The Numbers

Statistics courtesy of Barttorvik.com.

We’ll just address it right off the bat. The numbers are what they are. And what they are isn’t good.

Pierce’s game hinges on steady shooting, and he struggled from outside. But we’re also dealing with tiny samples. Consider: Trent’s minutes, in sum, add up to less than four games played. Aside from a solid defensive rebound and steal rates to go with decent 2-point shooting, there’s not much of a hook on which to hang the idea that a breakout is imminent.

But that’s not how it always goes.

The 6-foot-10 sophomore is capable of more than that. Possessing an elite shooting stroke for a man his size, it’s not hard to envision things clicking for him. The following clip provides an explanation of his struggles and a justification for believing that production will come.

Pierce has a solid look to his jumper. The release is a little long — bringing the ball down below his waist while loading — but otherwise, Pierce owns a clean and repeatable release. The problem is that the shots weren’t going in.

Pierce found space and took shots within the flow of the offense. Whether the misses were due to a lack of confidence or experience, they were unproductive all the same. The hope is that with a season under his belt and a renewed focus, those same shots start dropping. If they do—and at a respectable rate—MU will have something of a unique player at that size.

Consider this a segue of sorts. The uniqueness in Trent’s game is not simply a player being able to knock down jumpers at 6-foot-10. He can defend well on the perimeter at the same time. Pierce arrived at MU with a reputation as a solid team defender, but there were brief glimpses of sound lateral ability and defensive skills, especially for a guy his size.

The ability to shoot and guard various positions is a coveted skill set, especially within the constraints of switching defense when employing a man-to-man look or the sheer length when employing a zone.

The Role

To have a successful second season, Pierce will need to check both of those boxes. The good news? Having looked back and the full Leonard Hamilton and Dennis Gates era at Florida State, sophomore jumps were common. Employing Evan Miya’s Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) confirms that observation.

BPR, in this context, is an individual metric, and it quantifies how much better or worse the player’s team — here Trent Pierce — is if there were nine average players on the court with him. The metric is judged over 100 possession samples. In Trent’s case, his BPR was 0.12, meaning Mizzou was 0.12 points better over 100 possessions with him on the court. That number is…not great.

But it’s not uncommon either. The Seminoles’ freshmen classes from 2012-2014 — those that were the springboard to their future success — had a median first-year BPR of -0.53. Worse than Trent’s was. What’s more? That median number jumped to 2.22 during their second year. While that figure is not elite, it’s certainly respectable and worthy of a spot in the rotation. It also provides a rough guide for the stakeholders when judging Pierce’s progress at year’s end.

Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Turning to his role next year with this information in mind, I’m somewhat bullish on Pierce asserting himself. He has a fair amount of positional flexibility due to his defensive profile. Whether running as an “interior player” alongside Mark Mitchell or as a wing when Mizzou employs a true center, his skills could translate equally. I see his minutes played rate doubling and sitting around 20.4% — a little over eight minutes a night. That result would rank him 10th among the 15 scholarship-level players. Assuming his usage stays in that 20% range, seeing him average 2-4 points a night would be reasonable.

PPP: Points Per Possession

Min %: This is simply the percentage of minutes played by a given player.

Usage %: A measure of personal possessions used while player is on the court. This includes making a shot, missing a shot coupled with a defensive rebound and a turnover.

eFG%: Same as traditional FG% with the added bonus of 3-point shots given 50% more weight to account for additional point.

OR%: The percentage of possible offensive rebounds a player gets.

DR%: The percentage of possible defensive rebounds a player gets.

AST%: Assists divided by field goals made by player’s teammates while on the court.

TO%: The percentage of personal possessions a player uses on turnovers.

FTR%: A rate which measures a player’s ability to get to the free throw line.

FT%: Free Throw shooting percentage.

2PT%: 2-point field goal percentage.

3PT% 3-point field goal percentage.