Week 7 Opening Lines: DraftKings ODDS-ervations

Oct 6, 2024 | Football Gameday

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Vegas, Baby, Vegas!

Ya pays ya money, ya takes ya chances

Week #7 opening lines have been posted, so in this space we take a look at what the oddsmakers are laying down around the SEC and a few other games of interest.

With that, as always, if you’re going to dabble, please do so responsibly. Don’t forget, any line that seems too good to be true likely is, and the sharps in Vegas know what they’re doing.

Here’s a look at the SEC opening lines and a few other thoughts, with all lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, who is an SBNation partner. All odds are subject to adjust during the week, and all kick times listed are central. TV provider listed in parentheses. The Nuggets of Wisdom (NoW) are free of charge, so you’re getting what you paid for there!

What are some of your favorite plays this week? Leave them in the comments section below and we’ll compare notes.

Saturday, Oct. 12th

11 am (ABC) – South Carolina at Alabama (-22.0 / 51.5 total)

NoW – Both sides are coming off bad losses. ‘Bama lost to Vanderbilt for the first time since the Lincoln administration, while Carolina got punked 27-3 at home by Ole Miss in a game that the Gamecocks entered thinking they’d have a chance to win. I saw where Rock M Godfather Bill C wrote in his weekly SP+ rankings that the Alabama loss was statistically inexplicable and that Vandy’s post-game expected win percentage was something like 1.8%. I’m not smart enough to know exactly what that means, but I do believe I’m smart enough not to go against a Crimson Tide team madder than a pack of charging elephants…

11 am (ESPN2) – Mizzou at UMass (+27.5 / 53.5 total)

NoW – Okay, get ready to hear all week long how this is the dumbest scheduling move ever by a P4 school. And you know what? I’m not gonna try to dissuade anyone from that stance, because this one is pretty brutal. If you’re surprised to see Mizzou as four-TD favorites after what just took place in College Station, don’t be. UMass is, shall we say, non-good…

2:30 pm (ABC) – Texas vs. Oklahoma (+15.0 / 51.0 total)

NoW – The Red River Rivalry takes place for the first time under the SEC banner. Both teams are coming off a bye week, and the news around who Texas will start at QB will be a major point of speculation. Seems like a lot of points to cover for such a fierce rivalry…

3:15 pm (SECN) – Mississippi State at Georgia (-33.5 / 54.0 total)

NoW – The projected score with this combination of spread and total would say approximately Georgia 44, Mississippi State 10. Sounds about right…

6 pm (ESPN) – Florida at Tennessee (-16.0 / 55.5 total)

NoW – This game looks a little more competitive now than it did on paper a few weeks ago. The Gators have strung together a couple of wins in a row to keep the pitchforks and torches away from Billy Napier for the moment, while Tennessee is coming off an inexplicable 19-14 upset loss at Arkansas…

6:30 pm (ABC) – Ole Miss at LSU (+2.5 / 64.0 total)

NoW – This one could serve as a playoff elimination game, and it’s a HUGE litmus test for both teams in reality, but I see it as more of a gut check for Ole Miss. If they drop this one, the only shot at the playoffs they’ll have is to win out and hope it’s enough. It’s pretty rare to see LSU getting points in Death Valley for a night game…

6:45 pm (SECN) – Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-12.5 / 46.0 total)

NoW – The new darlings of the SEC travel to play another giant killer in Kentucky, who two weeks ago was last seen knocking Ole Miss from the ranks of undefeated. The Wildcats were off this past Saturday, so they’ll be more fresh than the Commodores, who are probably still riding high from their huge win over Alabama…

Non-SEC games of interest

Saturday, Oct. 12th

2:30 pm (CBS) – Penn State at USC (+4.0 / 49.0 total)

NoW – This one lost some lustre with the Trojans getting upset last week by Minnesota. Penn State was nothing special in a 27-11 win last week over hapless UCLA. My Spidey Sense is telling me to not automatically discount USC in this one…

6:30 pm (ABC) – Ohio State at Oregon (+4.5 / 51.0 total)

NoW – Biggest game of the weekend with #2 Ohio State in Autzen Stadium at #3 Oregon. There’s a decent chance that we’ll see this game again later this year in the Big Ten Championship Game…

9:15 pm (ESPN) – Kansas State at Colorado (+5.5 / 56.5 total)

NoW – This one has a low-key great chance of being a compelling game. With the Big 12 Conference race very much up in the air right now, both of these teams will be looking to stay in it…

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Commute: Exhibition Hoops and Football Watch Party at Mizzou Arena


The Morning Commute for Thursday, October 17

Welcome to the Morning Commute

Today we’re talking about some Mizzou Hoops!

SEC Basketball Media Days has wrapped up, which means college hoops season is right around the corner.

Mizzou Men’s Basketball will open the regular season on November 4th at Memphis, but the Tigers will be playing a game earlier than that.

It was previously reported that Missouri would host Lincoln University on Saturday, October 26th, but it was made official by Mizzou Hoops today.

It’s free admission, and there will also be a watch party at Mizzou Arena for the Mizzou-Alabama football game

Tip-off will be two hours prior to the Mizzou-Alabama game, which will kick-off at either 2:30 or 3:15. More info available at MUTigers.com.

For more coverage on hoops, Sam Snelling and Matthew Harris discussed preseason expectations for Missouri Basketball on the latest episode of Dive Cuts.


Yesterday at Rock M and Rock M+

“If you hadn’t seen/heard, Auburn Coach Hugh Freeze held his Monday media presser and tried to hand a compliment down to Mizzou’s Eliah Drinkwitz. However, it didn’t come out quite right, because when he complimented Drink for doing a great job of building the program, he said that Drink has done so despite having a “lesser roster in recruiting.”

Perhaps some bulletin board material for Mizzou Football on Homecoming?

“Despite an early loss, every Mizzou goal remains on the table for the Tigers at this point. That will not be the case if they drop this game to a stumbling Auburn team.”

This is a must-win game for Mizzou as these programs are heading in the opposite directions.

“This is a chance for Drinkwitz and his Tigers to make a statement on how the rest of this year goes. Just win.”

Get it done on Homecoming.

“He has to commit to doing things his top competitors will be willing to do. If he does, Aidan can genuinely deliver on the promise that he’s had since he first pledged to the Tigers three years ago.”

Read up on Aidan Shaw on our latest Mizzou Hoops player preview — who is looking to live up to his potential entering a pivotal junior season.

“Drink and company spoke to reporters as per usual on Tuesday, highlighting what was important about their next opponent.”

Read what Drinkwitz, Chris McClellan, Joshua Manning, and Joseph Charleston had to say on Tuesday’s media day.

“The Missouri Tigers jumped to No. 19 in this week’s AP Top 25 after a 45-3 win over UMass. The win marked the Tigers last game of their non-conference slate, and was described as a rebound game after a tough loss to Texas A&M.”

Marcus Carroll and Sterling Webb were highlighted in the 45-3 win over UMass.

“My Results: Vanderbilt Commodores — 12th in Conference, 7-11”

Vanderbilt is the latest on our SEC Basketball Team Previews — where Sam predicts the Commodores to place 12th in the league with a 7-11 conference record.

“Best Bets now sits at 14-8 with our total picks record at an even 20-20-1. Let’s jump right into making you some money in Week 8!”

Nathan gives his betting insight on the Week 8 College Football slate, which of course includes the Mizzou-Auburn game.

“While the 8-minute press conference didn’t last long, we learned plenty about the areas of emphasis for her roster and her mentality heading into the season. Here are three quick things we learned from Mizzou’s time in Birmingham.”

Some quotes from Mizzou WBB Head Coach Robin Pingeton at SEC Media Days.

The 2024 Mizzou Football season is one that has been met with as much anticipation as any in recent memory. With Eli Drinkwitz’s program taking a huge step forward in the 2023 season, going 11-2 and securing a Cotton Bowl victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes, there’s a renewed focus on what Missouri can do to put itself in the conversation for a berth in the College Football Playoff.

The digital magazine we present today is 115 pages chalk full of Mizzou Football previewing, scouting, interviewing, and more…

Rock M Radio: BTBS Auburn Preview with Nate Edwards and Nathan Hurst

Subscribe to Rock M Radio on Apple Podcasts. Or stream episodes through Megaphone or Spotify. Have a question for us? Leave a 5-star review with your question and that show just might answer it in an upcoming episode!

If you like Rock M Radio drop us a Review and be sure to subscribe on your preferred podcasting platform. Follow @RockMRadio on Twitter and if you heaven’t already head over to our YouTube channel and click that subscribe button!

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Week 7 Analytics MVPs: New running back impresses, a roster hopeful steps up on defense

Missouri running back Marcus Carroll (9) makes a catch during the first half of a game against Vanderbilt on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024, at Faurot Field. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

You probably could have guessed the MVP on the offensive side of the ball but a certain defensive player put up his best numbers of the season.

The Missouri Tigers jumped to No. 19 in this week’s AP Top 25 after a 45-3 win over UMass. The win marked the Tigers last game of their non-conference slate, and was described as a rebound game after a tough loss to Texas A&M.

The offense spread the ball to a variety of players, and amongst those players one clearly dominated the touch spread. Defensively, after picking up just nine pressures as a unit last week the defense upped the ante and picked up 15 against the Minutemen. Additionally, after allowing Connor Weigman to complete virtually all of his aimed passes the Tigers only allowed Taisun Phommachanh to complete 65.3% of his last week.

The Tigers had four players on defense pick up a grade of 80 or higher last week, a stark difference in comparison to the mere two in the last two games combined.

Marcus Carroll | Running Back

Marcus Carroll had a chance to step up large with the absence of Nate Noel due to what head coach Eli Drinkwitz described as “back strains from the plane ride” and boy did he. At face value, Carroll picked up 15 carries for 91 yards and three scores, the three scores exceeding his output from the entire season prior to the game.


After a bubbly showing with 4.29 yards after contact per rush against Murray State, that after contact yardage wasn’t coming for Carroll after that game. However, Carroll seems to have found his groove thanks to increased touches as he picked up a healthy 2.8 yards after contact per rush against the Minutemen. He also picked up his highest breakaway percentage since the season opener at 38.5%, a lot closer to the 37.5% he picked up last season at Georgia State.

The play I’m going to highlight this week is his 35 yard touchdown, which was coincidentally his longest rush of the season. At around the 1:30 mark of the video, he hits the gap on the left of the line with explosive speed and the most impressive thing for me is his ability to use his vision to turn this into a touchdown. This could easily have been a 20-25 yard run without the vision, but he cuts to the outside and uses his fantastic elusiveness to break tackles en route to the score. Some people across the country said that run was Schrader-like, with the way he rumbles through the line and I’d have to agree.

Sterling Webb | Defensive Line

Sterling Webb had his best performance of the season by far and what was even more impressive is that he did it in just 19 snaps. After not picking up a single pressure the entire season, Webb picked up five against the Minutemen.


Webb ranked first in the country in pressures per snap among linemen with at least 15 snaps, which is incredible considering some of the numbers people put up this past week. Webb was in the 95th percentile of college football in HHS, and his analytics are even more impressive considering he didn’t pick up a single solo tackle. Analytically, especially for the defensive line the impact one can make extends beyond base statistics.

I tried to scan for film on Webb’s impact in particular, but wasn’t able to find anything concrete. Coming in from New Mexico State, Webb’s main calling card was the success he had at generating pressure under Jerry Kill, and his lack of a role this season has been a bit surprising. Although a performance akin to the one he had at UMass might be in order, and more playing time at that.

Legend

Running Backs

Breakaway: An RBs ability to break a run loose in space.

Elusiveness: An RBs ability to miss tackles in open space.

After Contact: An RBs ability to get yards after contact.

Security: An RBs fumble rate.

Protection: Yards Before Contact, this is used as a measure to see how good the protection a RB gets is, and is a hindrance in the RB VAT formula.

Drops: An RB’s drop rate.

Route Run: An RB’s yards per route run, often shows how good an RB is at route running.

TD/ATT: An RB’s ratio of touchdowns to rushing attempts.

YPA: An RB’s yards per attempt.

Interior Defensive Line

Pass Rush: Pass Rush Score, comprised of various pass rushing stats and factors

Run Defense: Run Defense Score, comprised of various run defense stats and factors

Stops: On a first down, if the offense gets 45% of the way to a first down or less.

On a second down, if the offense gets 60% of the way to a first down or less.

On a third or fourth down, if the offense doesn’t get a first down.

HHS: Hits, Hurries, and Sacks generated

Efficiency: Overall Defensive Efficiency

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Commute: Mizzou Football at Alabama game-time on October 26th TBD, other news and notes


The Morning Commute for Tuesday, October 15

Welcome to the Morning Commute

Today we’re talking about xx.

The first order of business is taking care of Auburn in their Homecoming game on Saturday, but Mizzou’s October 26th game at No. 7 Alabama could very well determine the Tigers’ College Football Playoff fate.

Mizzou vs Alabama in Tuscaloosa is still TBD, but it will be either 2:30, 3:15, or 6:30 p.m. CST on ABC or the SEC Network.

Here’s the rest of the SEC TV schedule for that Saturday:

In volleyball news, Mizzou had a successful 3-0 week at Hearnes — and the Tigers were well represented with conference player of the week honors. Jordan Iliff was named both SEC Player of the Week and SEC Offensive Player of the Week.

For the second time this season, Marina Crownover has been named SEC Setter of the Week.

And it’s that time of year for College Basketball. Mizzou Hoops respectfully comes in at No. 53 in KenPom’s preseason projections. The Tigers are also predicted to finish 13th in the SEC Preseason poll.

On the women’s side, the Tigers have been predicted to finish 15th in the league.


Yesterday at Rock M and Rock M+

“BUT after last week’s marvelous fall from No. 9 to No. 21 in the Associated Press poll, it’s nice to see upward movement again, even if it’s slight.”

Mizzou moves up two spots to No. 19 in the latest AP Top 25 poll.

“Adding three tackles is the cherry on top of Flagg’s most important contribution yet as a Tiger.”

Corey Flagg Jr. comes in at No. 1 in this latest MV3 after his performance against UMass.

“While the result in Texas was frustrating, it’s still a good time to be happy with the state of the team and program as a whole. Right now, I will enjoy the team for what it is, not get mad at what it isn’t.”

Dan with reasonable thoughts after Mizzou’s win over UMass.

“f those things were to happen, Mizzou’s “don’t back down” talent from Tallahassee will quickly become a fan favorite.”

Our latest Mizzou Hoops player preview features Anthony Robinson II who enters his sophomore season.

“But on Saturday in Amherst, they looked like they needed to look. They took care of business.

To me, that counts for something.”

Mizzou did what they needed to do at UMass.

“My Results: Georgia Bulldogs — 14th in Conference, 6-12”

Read up on Georgia on our latest SEC Hoops team preview — where Sam predicts them 14th in the league with a 6-12 conference record.

Some great pics from Cal on volleyball and fall softball!

The 2024 Mizzou Football season is one that has been met with as much anticipation as any in recent memory. With Eli Drinkwitz’s program taking a huge step forward in the 2023 season, going 11-2 and securing a Cotton Bowl victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes, there’s a renewed focus on what Missouri can do to put itself in the conversation for a berth in the College Football Playoff.

The digital magazine we present today is 115 pages chalk full of Mizzou Football previewing, scouting, interviewing, and more…

Rock M Radio: Taking care of business against UMass with Nate Edwards and Nathan Hurst

Subscribe to Rock M Radio on Apple Podcasts. Or stream episodes through Megaphone or Spotify. Have a question for us? Leave a 5-star review with your question and that show just might answer it in an upcoming episode!

If you like Rock M Radio drop us a Review and be sure to subscribe on your preferred podcasting platform. Follow @RockMRadio on Twitter and if you heaven’t already head over to our YouTube channel and click that subscribe button!

  • (** RockMNation has affiliate partnerships. These do not influence editorial content, though RockMNation may earn commissions for products purchased via affiliate links.**)

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