Vegas, Baby, Vegas!
Ya pays ya money, ya takes ya chances
Week #7 opening lines have been posted, so in this space we take a look at what the oddsmakers are laying down around the SEC and a few other games of interest.
With that, as always, if you’re going to dabble, please do so responsibly. Don’t forget, any line that seems too good to be true likely is, and the sharps in Vegas know what they’re doing.
Here’s a look at the SEC opening lines and a few other thoughts, with all lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, who is an SBNation partner. All odds are subject to adjust during the week, and all kick times listed are central. TV provider listed in parentheses. The Nuggets of Wisdom (NoW) are free of charge, so you’re getting what you paid for there!
What are some of your favorite plays this week? Leave them in the comments section below and we’ll compare notes.
Saturday, Oct. 12th
11 am (ABC) – South Carolina at Alabama (-22.0 / 51.5 total)
NoW – Both sides are coming off bad losses. ‘Bama lost to Vanderbilt for the first time since the Lincoln administration, while Carolina got punked 27-3 at home by Ole Miss in a game that the Gamecocks entered thinking they’d have a chance to win. I saw where Rock M Godfather Bill C wrote in his weekly SP+ rankings that the Alabama loss was statistically inexplicable and that Vandy’s post-game expected win percentage was something like 1.8%. I’m not smart enough to know exactly what that means, but I do believe I’m smart enough not to go against a Crimson Tide team madder than a pack of charging elephants…
11 am (ESPN2) – Mizzou at UMass (+27.5 / 53.5 total)
NoW – Okay, get ready to hear all week long how this is the dumbest scheduling move ever by a P4 school. And you know what? I’m not gonna try to dissuade anyone from that stance, because this one is pretty brutal. If you’re surprised to see Mizzou as four-TD favorites after what just took place in College Station, don’t be. UMass is, shall we say, non-good…
2:30 pm (ABC) – Texas vs. Oklahoma (+15.0 / 51.0 total)
NoW – The Red River Rivalry takes place for the first time under the SEC banner. Both teams are coming off a bye week, and the news around who Texas will start at QB will be a major point of speculation. Seems like a lot of points to cover for such a fierce rivalry…
3:15 pm (SECN) – Mississippi State at Georgia (-33.5 / 54.0 total)
NoW – The projected score with this combination of spread and total would say approximately Georgia 44, Mississippi State 10. Sounds about right…
6 pm (ESPN) – Florida at Tennessee (-16.0 / 55.5 total)
NoW – This game looks a little more competitive now than it did on paper a few weeks ago. The Gators have strung together a couple of wins in a row to keep the pitchforks and torches away from Billy Napier for the moment, while Tennessee is coming off an inexplicable 19-14 upset loss at Arkansas…
6:30 pm (ABC) – Ole Miss at LSU (+2.5 / 64.0 total)
NoW – This one could serve as a playoff elimination game, and it’s a HUGE litmus test for both teams in reality, but I see it as more of a gut check for Ole Miss. If they drop this one, the only shot at the playoffs they’ll have is to win out and hope it’s enough. It’s pretty rare to see LSU getting points in Death Valley for a night game…
6:45 pm (SECN) – Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-12.5 / 46.0 total)
NoW – The new darlings of the SEC travel to play another giant killer in Kentucky, who two weeks ago was last seen knocking Ole Miss from the ranks of undefeated. The Wildcats were off this past Saturday, so they’ll be more fresh than the Commodores, who are probably still riding high from their huge win over Alabama…
Non-SEC games of interest
Saturday, Oct. 12th
2:30 pm (CBS) – Penn State at USC (+4.0 / 49.0 total)
NoW – This one lost some lustre with the Trojans getting upset last week by Minnesota. Penn State was nothing special in a 27-11 win last week over hapless UCLA. My Spidey Sense is telling me to not automatically discount USC in this one…
6:30 pm (ABC) – Ohio State at Oregon (+4.5 / 51.0 total)
NoW – Biggest game of the weekend with #2 Ohio State in Autzen Stadium at #3 Oregon. There’s a decent chance that we’ll see this game again later this year in the Big Ten Championship Game…
9:15 pm (ESPN) – Kansas State at Colorado (+5.5 / 56.5 total)
NoW – This one has a low-key great chance of being a compelling game. With the Big 12 Conference race very much up in the air right now, both of these teams will be looking to stay in it…
0 Comments