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The top-30 talent and headliner of a ballyhooed recruiting class might find the best route to minutes is wreaking havoc on defense and in the open floor.

Over the weeks leading up to the season, this series will dive deep into the players we see making a push for time in the rotation for the 2024-2025 Missouri basketball squad. The pieces read like a birds-eye scouting report. They skew more toward the offensive end of the court for two reasons. First, a player’s offensive metrics are more reliable than defensive data and less team-dependent. Second, it’s considerably easier to describe a player’s qualities with more well-known offensive statistics. As always, we encourage interaction from our readers. Please drop us a comment or find me on Twitter @DataMizzou.

The film credits are given to Matt Harris. Matt has provided all of the film used in this series, and the team has plenty more video and analysis on every player that can be found on https://rockm.plus.

The Player

When Annor Boateng committed to Missouri, it was easy to frame the decision as a pivot point in coach Dennis Gates’ tenure.

The Tigers pulled off a cross-border incursion to pluck a top-50 prospect from Arkansas when Hogs’ program looked healthy. On the court, Boateng was wrapping a stretch where his streaky jumper found a measure of relative calm. Back then, it was easy to imagine Boateng’s senior campaign at Little Rock Central as one of resolution – a state title for his squad and resolving lingering questions about his skill set.

Well, one of those came to pass.

For Boateng, though, his shooting stroke reverted to flakiness, and his handle still needed tightening. His ceiling as a freshman might hinge on how much progress he has made since arriving this summer, but MU’s roster refurbishing might have blunted the pressure for him to deliver quick returns.

For starters, Tamar Bates stuck around. Caleb Grill received a medical redshirt. And the Tigers pulled Jacob Crews from the transfer portal. Across nine seasons, that trio has connected on 35.5 percent of catch-and-shoot 3s – a blend of experience and shooting that serves as a buffer if Boateng’s stroke isn’t dialed in early.

As you’ll see, Boateng assaults the rim in ways that optimally align with MU’s scheme — and don’t involve him attacking a gap against a set defense off the bounce. So, success might be a matter of Boateng translating what he already does well.

The Numbers

Arkansas PBS

Assessing Boateng’s most recent sample of play demanded a concession.

When he suited up for Central, Boateng was part of a six-man rotation featuring only one proper interior option in C.J. Washington, a 6-foot-8 forward. As a result, Boateng, who stands 6-foot-6, slid down the positional ladder to play as a four-man. Spacing the floor in four-out sets wasn’t a significant compromise, but the more consequential adaptation saw Boateng draw defensive assignments that kept him around the mid-post and elbows.

Those tradeoffs didn’t dent Boateng’s productivity. (He still repeated as Arkansas’ Gatorade Player of the Year.) But on film, Boateng doesn’t always conform to our traditional idea of a wing.

Boateng’s best source of on-ball opportunities came in transition, usually via a grab-and-go or by creating a live-ball turnover. As the clips illustrate, Boateng’s a terror if there’s open hardwood in front of him, but it’s worth watching how he maneuvers with a bit of congestion.

Boateng’s blend of size and strength made a defender’s attempt to stop the ball futile. His handle and wiggle were also good enough to attack slivers of space and pry them open when a defense tried to build a wall. Boateng’s finishing package hinted at some diversity, particularly footwork that helped him reach the rim with his stronger right hand.

Boateng’s efforts weren’t flawless, though.

He averaged 0.923 points per possession when leading the break, and it’s not hard to identify the source of drag: turnovers. Boateng gave the ball away 36.8 percent when leading the break. And almost half of those giveaways came from a loose handle, making it easy for defenders to get a paw on the ball and strip it out.

Now the good news: Boateng’s turnover rate drops to 10.2 percent in transition situations where he’s running the floor. Those touches were also worth 1.220 points, the efficiency you want to see from a player who makes a large part of their living on the break.

Once Central initiated a set, Boateng ceded much of the responsibility for advantage creation to Luke Moore and Daniel Culberson. Yet the Tigers spent the early part of last season jetting around the country playing in showcase tournaments, where opponents sometimes defaulted to zone to take Central out of rhythm. In that situation, Boateng excelled as a cutter flashing into pockets of space or darting along the baseline for lobs.

So, Boateng can be potent in transition and as a cutter — two traits vital for a wing in Gates’ system. But does he shoot it well enough to maintain optimal spacing?

Well…

Last July and August, Boateng’s performance on the 3SSB circuit and some elite prospect camps offered hints that stability wasn’t far away. However, those results were fleeting. As a senior at Central, Boateng made just 28.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s, including 14 of 52 hoisted up from spot-up situations. And that performance improved from the 25.2 percent mark Boateng produced as a junior.

Watching Boateng shoot the ball creates a frustrating dissonance. His mechanics look great, but the results don’t match up. It’s enough to make you look up wonky material on the biomechanics behind shooting to see if you can diagnose what goes awry, which creates more frustration because — at first glance — there’s nothing glaringly broken about Boateng’s jumper.

To add another wrinkle, Boateng showed some intriguing proficiency when attempting 3s off the dribble, particularly the one-dribble variety out of high pick-and-rolls. But then you look at the whole picture, and Boateng’s 3-pointing shooting off the bounce (25.4%) closely mirrors his results off the catch.

Still, Boateng wouldn’t be the first highly-rated wing needing time to calibrate their stroke. Over the past five years, wings rated in the top 50 of 247’s composite index typically knocked down 31 percent of 3s taken off the catch. Their volume of attempts (1.5 per game) was also modest enough that it didn’t exert much sway in how opponents crafted game plans.

Or think of it this way: Boateng shooting 35 percent from 3-point range on three attempts per game would qualify as an outlier performance. Again, MU’s inventory of proven shooters is enough that Boateng won’t face overwhelming pressure to deliver that kind of performance.

When Boateng catches, rips through, and gets going in a straight line, he can wreak havoc, averaging 1.30 points on possessions where he reaches the rim. There’s also some clean-up work when Boateng tries playing downhill from spot-up situations. He turned the ball over 26.6% of the time using his right hand.

Boateng might drag his pivot foot or extend his off arm in early-clock settings. However, there are possessions where his first step doesn’t create separation, forcing Boateng to reset and go again. It’s the secondary attack where he might initiate contact to get his shoulders past a defender, or the ball gets away from his body.

Boateng’s application of defensive tools might be the handiwork that earns him more playing time.

In almost every setting we’ve seen him, he’s been a reliable off-ball defender who does rote work like closing down shooters. Last season, they only knocked down 27.1 percent of 3-point looks when Boateng put a hand in their faces.

As noted earlier, Boateng’s role at Central meant he spent more time matched against frontline players. A downstream result is the limited volume of on-ball possessions against perimeter threats, but he held his own in our sample of touches. For example, he only allowed 0.389 points when handling a player in isolation.

Boateng also excelled at taking away the right hand from drivers. And in some of the snippets, you’ll notice he’s in situations where big men attempt to bully him on drives from the elbow.

In June, we tried to rationally forecast how many minutes each of MU’s freshmen should expect to see. In Boateng’s case, the median allotment is roughly 14 minutes each night. That might seem modest for a recruit of his caliber, but that dosage makes sense under modern approaches to roster building.

We’ve already alluded to the presence of Bates, Grill and Crews creating veteran congestion on the wing, but alternate routes are also hard to find. Boateng received sporadic chances to work as a secondary creator with the Arkansas Hawks, but those evaporated out of necessity with Central. So, it’s hard to foresee Boateng stealing time at combo guard.

If we take Boateng’s skill set at face value, it might be best suited for small-ball configurations where Boateng’s length and physicality might make life hell in traps and he can backfill some rebounding. Offensively, he might have more opportunities to get in the open floor and assault the rim. And if his jumper has progressed to the point where he’s a replacement-level spacer, Gates could increase the dosage of PT.

The Role

Arkansas PBS

Come November, Annor Boateng will have a spot in the nightly rotation. Three things will determine where he lands in the rotation:

1. The shooting mentioned above
2. How well the other wings in Mizzou’s deep bench are playing
3. His health; Boateng was sidelined for stretches with a lingering leg injury this summer

Reviewing similarly rated freshman wings over recent years tells us that the average minutes played mark is between 40% and 45% — or between 16 and 18 minutes per contest. For Boateng, we feel that may be a little aggressive, based on the three considerations above.

Mizzou has many bodies vying for time at the off-ball perimeter positions, including Crews, Bates, Grill, and Marcus Allen. If you stretch the positional alignment slightly, you add players like Aidan Shaw, Mark Mitchell and Trent Pierce to the equation. The house is indeed crowded.

We’re willing to bet on Annor’s exceptional abilities in the open court and on defense to carve out a solid role. We see him getting around 30% of minutes — 12 minutes per night — with the potential for more if his offensive game has advanced. A projected usage rate of 18% would fall directly in line with prior examples of freshman wings of his star profile.

Much of Boateng’s success in the point column will be tied to how well Mizzou performs as a team and how fast they can play. Should the expectations be met, Boateng could see a respectable 4-5 points per night.

PPP: Points Per Possession

Min %: This is simply the percentage of minutes played by a given player.

Usage %: A measure of personal possessions used while player is on the court. This includes making a shot, missing a shot coupled with a defensive rebound and a turnover.

eFG%: Same as traditional FG% with the added bonus of 3-point shots given 50% more weight to account for additional point.

OR%: The percentage of possible offensive rebounds a player gets.

DR%: The percentage of possible defensive rebounds a player gets.

AST%: Assists divided by field goals made by player’s teammates while on the court.

TO%: The percentage of personal possessions a player uses on turnovers.

FTR%: A rate which measures a player’s ability to get to the free throw line.

FT%: Free Throw shooting percentage.

2PT%: 2-point field goal percentage.

3PT% 3-point field goal percentage.