Uncategorized

Coming off a disheartening loss on the road to Texas A&M, Mizzou has to drop out of the College Football Playoff picture entering Week 7.

The Missouri Tigers come in at No. 21 in the latest AP Top 25 poll following a 41-10 loss to No. 15 Texas A&M, damaging their College Football Playoff hopes.

While a road loss against a ranked Aggies team shouldn’t derail the season, Mizzou was uncompetitive and delivered a no-show in College Station. Even a close loss would have kept the Tigers among the outside of the bubble.

Elsewhere, it was a chaotic Saturday in Week 6 of the College Football season with Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan, and USC all suffering ranked upset losses — causing some major changes in this latest edition of the “Race for the CFP”.

As for now, Missouri is completely out of the picture with still a lot of football left to be played.

Top Four Seeds (Conference Champions):

Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

1. Texas (Projected Big 12 Champion): The Longhorns come in as the No. 1 team in the country heading into Saturday’s Red River Rivalry game vs Oklahoma.
2. Ohio State (Projected Big Ten Champion): After a convincing 35-7 win over Iowa, the Buckeyes improved to 5-0 on the season heading into Saturday night’s showdown with Oregon in Eugene.
3. Miami (Projected ACC Champion): Cam Ward and the Canes are playing with fire, but they pulled off a massive comeback on the road against Cal in a 39-38 victory.
4. Iowa State (Projected Big Ten Champion): The Cyclones improved to 5-0 on the season with a 43-21 win over Baylor last week and are on the road at West Virginia on Saturday night.

Top Contenders (Hosting Seeds 5-8)

Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

5. Georgia: After the loss to Alabama, the Bulldogs bounced back and took care of business in a 31-13 win over Auburn. They host Mississippi State on Saturday before their showdown at Texas on October 19th.

6. Penn State: After a 27-11 win over UCLA, the Nittany Lions are 5-0 for the fourth straight season — the only FBS team to do so in that span. They’re at USC on Saturday against the reeling Trojans.

7. Oregon: The Ducks weren’t looking ahead to Ohio State as they took care of business in a 31-10 win over Michigan State on Friday night.

8. Texas A&M: The Aggies delivered a statement 41-10 win over Missouri on Saturday and have won five in a row after their season-opening loss to Notre Dame. The schedule sets up well for A&M the rest of the way as they get LSU and Texas at home.

Bubble Teams (Last Few IN)

Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

9. BYU: The Cougars are 5-0 with two ranked wins on their schedule (Kansas State and SMU). With only one ranked team left on their schedule (No. 16 Utah on 11/9), BYU is certainly a contender for the Big 12. Up next: vs Arizona on Saturday.

10. Clemson: Dabo Swinney’s Tigers look like a completely different team after their season-opening loss to Georgia. They have now won four in a row to improve to 3-0 in the ACC and their offense is firing on all cylinders led by Cade Klubnik. Up next: at Wake Forest on Saturday.

11. Alabama: After a statement win over Georgia, the Crimson Tide suffered a stunning loss to lowly Vanderbilt (that being said the Commodores are much improved). Still, Bama had no business losing that game.

The Tide are still on the right side of the bubble as the win over Georgia outweighs the Vanderbilt loss — but their margin for error obviously decreases.

Group of Five Team

Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images

12. Boise State: Ashton Jeanty is HIM. In a 62-30 win over Utah State, Jeanty put up another huge performance to boost his Heisman campaign (13 carries, 186 yards, and 3 TDs). The Broncos are now 4-1 and ranked No. 17 in the latest AP Top 25 poll.

Bubble Teams (Last Few OUT):

Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Tennessee: While the road win at Oklahoma is nice, coming off a loss at unranked Arkansas certainly doesn’t help their cause. The Vols now have little room for error the rest of the way — but can make up for it with Alabama and Georgia remaining on their schedule.

Indiana: The Hoosiers (6-0) are the only bowl eligible team in the country after a 41-24 road win over Northwestern under first year head coach Curt Cignetti.

Ole Miss/LSU: Ole Miss and LSU meet up in The Magnolia Bowl in Baton Rouge on Saturday night in Death Valley. The loser is likely eliminated from playoff contention.

Notre Dame: The Irish’s season-opening win over Texas A&M is looking better and better, but their loss to Northern Illinois is still holding them back with a weak schedule.

Dark Horses/Sleepers:

Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Pittsburgh: Coming off a 34-24 road win over North Carolina, the Panthers are quietly 5-0 and No. 22 in the country.

SMU: The Mustangs are 5-1 and entered the Top 25 at No. 25 after a 34-27 road win over Louisville.

Nebraska: Dylan Raiola and the Huskers bounced back nicely after their loss to Illinois with back-to-back wins over Purdue and Rutgers, but the schedule gets a whole lot tougher after their bye week. Back-to-back road games at Indiana and Ohio State are looming. A big opportunity waits for Matt Rhule’s squad sitting right outside of the Top 25.

Army and Navy: For the first time since 1945, both teams are off to a 5-0 start to the season. How about that? The Army-Navy game at the end of the regular season could potentially have playoff implications as both are on the cusp of the Top 25.

Here is my projected 12-team playoff entering Week 6 of the season:

1. Texas
2. Ohio State
3. Miami
4. Iowa State

5. Georgia vs 12. Boise State

6. Penn State vs 11. Alabama

7. Oregon vs 10. Clemson

8. Texas A&M vs 9. BYU

CFP Final Four: Texas vs Georgia, Penn State vs Ohio State

CFP National Championship: Texas vs Ohio State

National Champion: Texas

After a historic gut-punch against Texas A&M, the rest of MU’s 2024 campaign will be defined by everything after it, starting with a trip to UMass.

“The sky is not falling.”

One, correct. The sky is, in fact, not falling. Two, and more importantly, this quote from Eli Drinkwitz needs context.

Last Saturday proved to be an inflection point for the Tigers. Any semblance of a Mizzou hype train got run out of College Station; Texas A&M dominated everything, everywhere, all the time. Conner Weigman thoroughly outplayed Brady Cook, who was also under siege for most of the afternoon; both things can be true. Texas A&M generated 16 pressures; Mizzou only had four. On “big” plays — runs of 10+ yards and passes of 15+ yards — the Aggies had 15, including a 75-yard touchdown run by Le’Veon Moss on the first play of the second half.

It’s not like Mizzou was the only highly-ranked team to tumble on Saturday. Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan and USC, all of whom were ranked in the top-12 prior to Saturday, all fell to unranked foes. Widening the scope a bit, every single team in college football has already had its gut checked at some point. Even powerhouses Texas and Ohio State, whose smallest margins of defeat have each been greater than 20 points thus far, were in tight battles with Mississippi State and Iowa, teams that were supposed to be taken care of easily. Essentially, MU wasn’t in unfamiliar company.

The difference was that, unlike the other defeated giants, Mizzou was trounced from the get-go; its 24-0 halftime deficit was its greatest since 2021. Through five games, the Tigers look more like a contender for the Music City Bowl rather than the College Football Playoff. It’s why Drinkwitz felt the need to say that the sky, which has existed as long as the universe, was not going to do something it had never done in almost 14 billion years.

In a sense, a new season has begun for Mizzou, one that’s been jumpstarted by major adversity. The new season has started on a somewhat positive note; Drinkwitz, who took responsibility for the loss numerous times, seemed pleased with his team’s demeanor postgame.

“What gives me a lot of confidence in our football team and our staff is the way we handled ourselves after the game,” Drinkwitz said. “It wasn’t finger-pointing. There was not assigning blame. There was no, we call it B.C.D., blame, complain or defend poor performance. There was a responsibility accepting of ‘hey, I had ownership in this’.”

Between Drinkwitz and the players, alignment in how the team will move forward is clear.

“The best always tell themselves the truth,” Drinkwitz said. “You have to tell yourself the truth of your performance on Saturday. You have to take responsibility for that,”

A few minutes later, senior linebacker Corey Flagg Jr. said almost the exact same thing. Although he kept up his streak of not missing a tackle as a stalwart at the second level, he registered his lowest PFF grade of the season (64.7).

“(Improving) just comes to being honest with yourself, just like real-life scenarios,” Flagg said. “If you’re going through something and something’s not going your way, you have to be honest with yourself, see what you can do better. And that’s just what we have to do as a team.”

One of the defense’s biggest problem areas was maintaining gap integrity. Rushers would oftentimes either get jammed at the line of scrimmage or fly out of position, creating plenty of open running lanes for the Aggies.

“I think it was just a lot of guys…trying to make a play instead of just, including myself, instead of just doing our assignment, doing our job and playing with the defense,” Flagg said.

Offensively, one of the biggest issues plaguing Mizzou through five games is its failure to avoid third down. The Tigers are averaging 16.6 third downs faced per game, tied for the fourth-most in the nation, and they faced 16 against Texas A&M. Not only that, Mizzou’s average yards-to-go on third down was a whopping 9.56; MU needed to gain 15+ yards on third down as many times as it needed to gain five or less (4). In those situations, Texas A&M feasted.

“We were in predominantly third-and-long,” Drinkwitz said. “which allows (the defense) to get into a heavy blitz package.”

Not too long after, center Connor Tollison highlighted the same aspect in regards to what caused Mizzou’s offensive stinker.

“I just think we got behind the sticks and got in obvious pass down situations,” Tollison said.

There isn’t a perfect positive correlation between facing few third downs and success. Purdue and UCLA, who are both 1-4, are in the bottom 20 in third downs faced. But many high-flying offenses like Alabama, Miami (FL), Oregon, Indiana, UNLV, Army and Navy are also in that group. Part of what’s made them so successful is that they’re adept at avoiding third down altogether, placing defenses in unpredictable spots. Mizzou was the opposite on Saturday.

Some positive historical news for MU is that, under Drinkwitz, the Tigers have rarely ever let losses snowball into long losing streaks. Mizzou is 8-7 after a loss since 2020, and a three-game losing streak in 2022 was its only instance of more than two consecutive defeats.

There’s also been a blueprint for a highly-touted team bouncing back from a 31-point loss. No. 10 Clemson was dismantled 34-3 by No. 5 Georgia in Week 1, but the defeat has been remedied by the Tigers averaging 48.5 points per game in four straight wins. Level of competition notwithstanding — neither Appalachian State, NC State, Stanford or Florida State has a winning record — Clemson’s response has been exactly what it’d likely hoped for and then some.

Can Mizzou do the same? Probably not at the level Clemson has reached, but it’s possible to right the ship like the other Tigers have. Drinkwitz & Co. have been saying the right things that entail a sturdy foundation that can push Mizzou back into the CFP conversation.

However, it’s clear that the Tigers know something else: they can preach positive ideals like a religious leader, but it won’t matter if they don’t improve on the field. Mizzou is a 27.5-point favorite against UMass, but in a college football season filled with surprises, taking care of business has become much more valuable. The Tigers have a chance to not only do that on Saturday, but begin a new chapter of their season.

“This week, I had a very clear and direct message with our team,” Drinkwitz said. “One bad day doesn’t define our team or our season. Our response will.”

Analyzing Mizzou’s upcoming opponent with an analytics-based deep dive into the scouting and matchups that have this game in the balance.

I have mostly used this space so far to examine interesting matchups in Mizzou’s games, using an analytics mindset. That allows me to focus on specific things Missouri has done well (or poorly), or specific situations or position groups where they will have the advantage or need to shore up for this opponent.

The last few entries have been a bit frusrating and redundant to write. There’s only so many ways I can plead with a team to find the explosive plays and to finish their dang drives.

So with an opponent like UMass, finding a compelling matchup can be a challenge, even in a disappointing stretch of performance for Mizzou. The Tigers will far outclass the Minutemen on Saturday. This is closer to an FCS matchup than anything. In Bill Connelly’s comprehensive college football ratings, of every program in America, UMass ranks 141st, behind twenty different FCS teams. They are only one behind Missouri State.

UMass is going to be able to do much to disrupt Mizzou. Don Brown’s outfit will want to run the ball, slow the game to a crawl, and keep it a low possession affair. Quarterback Taison Phommachanh is like a poor man’s Thomas Castellanos, scrambling when necessary and hitting the occasional deep ball. But he, and the infrastructure around him, is not enough to threaten Mizzou’s defense. At 107th overall in the country, this is one of the worst offenses in the sport.

UMass is pretty terrible on offense, but marginally better on defense. This is because of their back seven, which has been respectably middle of the pack this season. But it’s possible their numbers are halfway-decent because their rush defense is so bad. Opponents tend to just keep things simple against the Minutemen: Their defense ranks exactly 100th in Rush Rate Over Expected, Parker Fleming’s metric which measures how often a team runs (or faces a run), adjusted by down and distance situations.

Their defense is in the 23rd percentile preventing EPA per rush play, but 60th for pass play. As one of the worst Havoc creating teams in the country (fifth percentile), they will be quite accommodating. Mizzou will be able to be able to do whatever they want.

So what will they want to do? For me, there are two things I’d especially like to see — that is, if you don’t count “score a whole bunch of points, hopefully early.”

1. The Tigers shouldn’t need to break out any called quarterback runs to win this game… but maybe they should anyway

Bringing that extra +1 into the run game is important for close matchups in college, but Mizzou can win this one on paper without it entirely. Considering the recent play, though, I’d like to see a few successful Brady Cook called rushes. In the past two games, Brady has had his number called in the huddle six times for -5 total yards. In his previous 44 games, Cook had never finished the game with negative yards on designed rushes. That’s happened now in the last two. Mizzou might not need him as a weapon for this one, but they will need his legs in almost every game down the line.

2. I’d like to see a touchdown on the opening drive – the scripted possession

It would be a big intangible boost for an offense that has been out of sorts and just got completely shut down one week ago. But it would also help restore some faith in Kirby Moore’s game planning and calling.

The scripted drives have been poor for Missouri this year. In his Mizzou career, Kirby has called 16 games against FBS opponents. Four of those sixteen have resulted in touchdowns, all of them last year. This year Mizzou has not found the end zone on the opening drive against an FBS opponent.

More concerningly, the Tigers are just not getting down the field. On 12 openers last year, Moore’s outfit picked up 59% of the available yards; this year, that number is down to 41%.

There are some pet theories. Certainly, crowd noise and travel has been a factor in only one of these games. Brady Cook being secretly injured is a popular choice. I still believe the offense is struggling to adapt to the new helmet communication system and using them to play with tempo and confidence. Perhaps the playbook in general has been scouted, and teams have better counters than they did last season. If so, Moore and Drinkwitz will need to devise some counters to the counters.

Whatever the reason, the Tigers are not taking advantage of the chance to start the game with a clean, fresh drive before a defense makes adjustments. They should try to turn that around in the second half of the season.

RIP Mizzou Soccer undefeated streak: Sept. 26 – Oct. 3

After scoring points in two straight matches, Mizzou soccer (3-7-2, 1-3-1 SEC) came back down to earth in a 1-0 loss on the road to Tennessee (7-1-3, 2-0-2 SEC). But with the postseason well within striking distance, coach Stefanie Golan’s team has no time to dwell on the past.

Next on the schedule is two teams close in distance but far away in terms of success: Ole Miss (5-9, 0-5 SEC) and Mississippi State (10-1, 4-0 SEC).

After a week off I’m back for more soccer action, here to break down the loss to the Lady Vols and what to expect out of Missouri’s next two opponents.

Rocky Toppled

The Tigers fell on the road in Knoxville after an early Tennessee goal scored by Jaida Thomas in the 21st minute. The goal came after a corner kick, with Thomas heading the ball past goalie Kate Phillips and into the net.

The Lady Vols dominated the corner kick battle 8-1, constantly forcing the ball of Mizzou defenders to give themselves prime chances. But other than the corner kick discrepancy, it was quite the even match. Both teams finished with seven shots, with Mizzou leading the shots-on-goal battle 3-1. However all of these attempts were turned away by keeper Ally Zazzara.

The freshman led the offensive attack as Landis Canada, Emily Derucki and McKenna Moran combined for four shots with two of them coming on goal; both numbers accounted for over half of all Tiger chances.

This is not a performance to hang your head on, as Mizzou competed with a team that should be competing for one of the top four seeds in the SEC. To keep the game competitive and look nearly even shows continued improvement for this young roster.

Not-so-Hotty Toddy

The Tigers open this week with a matchup against an Ole Miss team that sits winless in SEC play, firmly in last halfway through conference play. After several close games things have started to spiral for the Rebels, losing by three to both Auburn and Texas A&M. The defense fell apart after allowing seven goals across both games.

However Mizzou can’t sleep on this team, as Ole Miss took down the Tigers in Oxford last season 2-1. After an early 1-0 lead for Mizzou, Rachel Kutella picked up a red card in the 21st minute; flipping the momentum and allowing the home team to take complete control with the advantage.

The goals were scored by Aubrey Mister and Kelly Brady, both of whom are back for the blue-and-red this season. Brady ranks second on the Rebels with three goals, trailing only behind freshman Kayla Keefer who has knocked home four. Brady and Keefer spark the Ole Miss offense, and should draw the eyes of everyone on the Tiger backline.

Bulldog Chokehold

After a matchup with the last place team in the SEC, Mizzou has to travel to the home of the FIRST place SEC team. Mississippi State is the last team in the conference without a tie or draw to their name in SEC play.

The now No. 4 Bulldogs recently toppled then-No. 1 Arkansas 1-0 to end their undefeated season. Mississippi State controlled the game from start to finish, outshooting the Razorbacks 15-5.

This marked their seventh straight shutout plus their 10th of the season. In fact the Bulldogs have only given up two goals all year, both of which came in their loss to Wake Forest. The defense has led the way all season, allowing only 25 shots on goal in 11 games. For reference the Bulldogs have scored 21 GOALS over that same time frame.

This defensive line is anchored by senior Rylie Combs, who has started every game while playing in 907 minutes thus far. Combs was voted to the 2024 SEC Preseason Watchlist and then the TopDrawerSoccer Team of the Week back on Sept. 23. Plus this will serve as a Homecoming for Combs, as the senior is from the St. Louis suburbs, playing for the club team St. Louis Scott Gallagher. There should be plenty of familiar faces for Combs in this matchup.

Player to Watch: Emily Derucki

Speaking of Scott-Gallagher, let’s talk about one of their youngest alumni. Derucki has continued to take a larger role on the pitch every game, as her and the rest of the freshman class continues to develop in year one. She led the offensive charge against Tennessee with two shots, one on goal. This offensive leadership was much needed, as Kylee Simmons missed the game in Knoxville.

With Simmons’ status undetermined for the week ahead, odds are the offensive charge will need to be done by committee. Derucki will likely be a huge part of that push, whether it be in the starting lineup or off the bench. Plus she is still looking for her first collegiate goal, and I’ve got a hunch that it could happen REAL soon.

Maybe it comes during their home match against Ole Miss at 7 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 10 at Audrey J. Walton Stadium.