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Missouri vs UMass football GameDay: info, where to watch, predictions

Oct 11, 2024 |

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 09 North Texas at Missouri
Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Tigers travel to Amherst to take on UMass.

Nothing against Amherst, or the University of Massachusetts, but I can think of many opponents I’d rather watch Missouri play than this one. On the road as a 28 point favorite, coming off a game where you looked like ass on national TV, there’s really no winning this game.

And I say this again as no disrespect intended to UMass. The way the Tigers have scheduled traditionally is with one FCS opponent, one ‘Power Five’ opponent, and two ‘Group of Five’ opponents. The Tigers don’t travel against non Power Five opponents often, but when they do it can be rocky.

There’s 2019 at Wyoming, 2015 at Arkansas State, 2012 at UCF. All three games were difficult games.

2017 at UConn went fine. 2014 Toledo went fine… if you go back further you get into Pinkel build territory. But the point stands, performances in these kinds of games can be iffy. And I get it when you’re favored by that much and you’re travelling it can be hard to get for a game like this. Especially in a weird place like Amherst, which is hardly a hotbed for College Football. UMass has only been back to playing D1 football since 2012, Mizzou has been in the SEC nearly that long.

Here’s UMass against Power 5 schools over the last few years:

  • 2023 at Auburn — L, 59-14
  • 2023 at Penn State — L, 63-0
  • 2022 at Texas A&M — L, 20-3
  • 2021 at Pitt — L, 51-7
  • 2021 vs Boston College — L, 45-28
  • 2021 at Florida State — L, 59-3

They lost 34-3 at Buffalo this year, a team the Tigers already beat 38-0. Anything short of a shellacking is going to feel a bit like a loss, and we’ve experienced that too often this season.

Either way it’s on TV, and I plan on watching. Again, I’m sure Amherst is lovely. This is nothing against the good people of Massachusetts or the city of Amherst.

Missouri-UMass football: Time, Location

TIME: 11:00 a.m. CT

DATE: Saturday, October 12, 2024

LOCATION: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium; Amherst, MA

Missouri-UMass football: Follow the game, TV Channel

TELEVISION: ESPN2

STREAM: WatchESPN

TWITTER: @MizzouFootball

FACEBOOK: MizzouFootballShowMe

ESPN+: ROCKMNATION

FORUMS: Rockm.Plus/Forums

Missouri-UMass football: Betting odds, predictions

As of Friday evening, Missouri is a 27.5-point favorite over UMass, according to FanDuel. The total points (over/under) is 54.5.

RockMNation has affiliate partnerships. These do not influence editorial content, though RockMNation may earn commissions for products purchased via affiliate links. Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See FanDuel Sportsbook for details.

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Mizzou Football’s best moments against Independents

Oct 11, 2024 | ,

NCAA Football: USA TODAY Sports-Archive
Malcolm Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

This was arguably the longest, windiest road down memory lane of the series.

The morning before each Mizzou football game in 2024, Rock M’s Quentin Corpuel will look back at MU’s best moments versus that week’s opponent. This week: Independents, since UMass and Mizzou have never played each other.

Opponent: UMass Minutemen

Gametime: Saturday, Oct. 19 at 11 a.m.

Location: McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Amherst, MA

Record versus Independents: It’s complicated

For the third time in the last four seasons, Mizzou will play an FBS team that they’ve never played before.

This time, the Tigers will head to the northeast for a battle with UMass in Amherst for just their second trip to Massachusetts in program history. They’ll hope it goes a little better than their other trip to the Bay State, which was a 41-34 overtime defeat at the hands of Boston College.

Along with Notre Dame and UConn, the Minutemen are not affiliated with a conference (although that will change next season when they rejoin the Mid-American Conference, which they called home from 2012-15). Historically, becoming independent is a good thing. Oftentimes, countries have made holidays out of themselves becoming independent. But in collegiate athletics, being independent has never been ideal.

Now, here’s why dissecting Mizzou’s history against Independents is tricky. Conferences in college football weren’t very prevalent until well after World War I. Up until the late 1920’s, a large majority of FBS Division I schools were Independents, from Ole Miss to Gonzaga to Yale. Essentially, MU’s early years of football saw most of its opponents reside as an independent school or at a non-Division I level.

But then, as more schools were elevated to Division I in the early 1930’s, most resided with the Independents, ballooning those numbers back up. Even with the growth of the Southern and Southeastern conferences throughout the mid-20th century, most schools were still Independents.

That trend continued until the late 1970’s, when a lot of schools either joined a conference (Houston went to the Southwest Conference in 1976, for example), dropped down to a lower division (Dayton, Holy Cross) or disbanded its football team altogether (Villanova, but they were brought back just three years after their presumed death in 1981). In 1974, there were 37 Independents; by 1984, there were just 21, the fewest since 1890, when there were only 18 schools in the entirety of Division I.

That number would jump back up into the mid-20’s and stay there until the early 1990’s. The genesis of the Big East, the expansion of mid-major conferences and major conferences adding schools like Florida State (ACC), Penn State (Big Ten) and South Carolina (SEC) shrunk the number of Independents to single digits by 1997. Since then, there haven’t been more than 10 Independents at one time.

So what does that history lesson mean in the context of this series? Essentially, most college football teams have been independent at some point in time. Mizzou has technically played a ton of games against Independents throughout its history, but that group has included schools like Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia, schools that were only independent for a fraction of their FBS I-A lives.

With all of that in mind, two caveats will be established to see which games actually qualify to be potentially used here.

One is that Mizzou’s opponent has to have been independent at some point after 1990, which is around the start of the massive decrease in Independents. Again, most college football teams have been unaffiliated at some point in time; this eliminates the possibility of including a game like Mizzou’s 5-4 win over Texas in 1907. Was I going to include that anyways? Probably not. But I hope this clarified which games were up for dissection.

Honorable mention: Pillaging in Pennsylvania (10/1/1960)

Like most successful Mizzou football seasons, the 1960 team didn’t enter the year with national notoriety…but it didn’t take the Tigers long to gain some.

After dismantling SMU and Oklahoma State to start the season, MU traveled to Happy Valley for a contest with Penn State. The Nittany Lions were coming off of just their second nine-win season in program history and figured to make national noise once again.

Unfortunately for them, their train of momentum was stopped temporarily, as Mizzou claimed a 21-8 victory. Two-way superstar Danny LaRose made a major impact on both sides of the ball, catching touchdown pass while intercepting another later in the game. Norris Stevenson sealed the deal with a late touchdown, and the Tigers had officially skyrocketed to national prominence.

#5: Sweet tangerines (12/19/1981)

Before the bowl game that’s played in Orlando encompassed all citrus fruits, the tangerine was the spotlight from 1946-82 in the “Tangerine Bowl”. Mizzou has competed in the game twice: the Tigers defeated Minnesota in 2014, and they also knocked off a high-quality Southern Mississippi squad in 1981.

The Golden Eagles were far from the mediocre Conference USA/Sun Belt team that they have been over the past few seasons. Decades prior, USM had the best scoring defense in the country, and that wasn’t a product of an easy schedule. Southern Mississippi tied Alabama at Legion Field (which seldom happened under Bear Bryant), defeated ranked Mississippi State in Jackson, MS and smacked Florida State in Tallahassee. Their quarterback, Reggie Collier, became the first quarterback in FBS history to throw and rush for 1,000 yards in a single season.

It wasn’t easy, but Mizzou emerged victorious 19-17. Legendary linebacker Jeff Gaylord shined in his final collegiate game, as he played a huge part in limiting Collier, who went 5/17 and accounted for just 70 total yards. Bob Lucchesi kicked four field goals for the Tigers, and Mizzou had officially won eight games in three of its last four seasons, the first time the Tigers had accomplished that feat since 1939-42.

#4: Rising up (11/14/2015)

As if the 2015 season couldn’t test the will of Mizzou any further, the week leading up to MU’s contest against BYU in Kansas City proved to be especially tumultuous.

For months, Mizzou students had called for the removal of UM System President Tim Wolfe after numerous racist incidents on campus occurred throughout the first semester. Boycotts and protests gripped the university, and tensions reached a boiling point in early November. Graduate student Jonathan Butler announced on Nov. 2 that he would go on a hunger strike until he passed away or Wolfe was removed; five days later, the black players on MU football announced that they wouldn’t play until Wolfe was removed. Wolfe eventually resigned on Nov. 9, ending one of the darkest periods in the university’s history.

Then, the day before Mizzou football was set to take on the Cougars in Arrowhead Stadium, another bombshell rocked the university. Gary Pinkel had told his team that the 2015 season would be his last. He’d been diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma in May, and a PET scan during Mizzou’s bye week proved to be the deciding factor.

But similarly to so many instances throughout its history, the Tigers overcame the odds and rallied. An offense that had scored a combined 25 points over its previous four games looked…functional! MU’s 434 yards of offense ended up being the most it registered in any game that season, and a stout Tiger defense held a quality BYU offense to one of its worst performances of the season. The win was capped off by a late MU drive that featured a pair of huge third-down conversions; a 22-yard run by Russell Hansbrough and a 16-yard completion from Drew Lock to Sean Culkin. The latter chunk gain allowed Mizzou to kneel out the clock and make a grim season a little less grim.

“He was able to keep this team together during that turmoil back in Columbia,” CBS play-by-play commentator Brent Musberger said as the Tigers began to celebrate. “And even when he announced he was stepping away, they came out and played as a team despite the uncertainty of what’s going to happen next year, especially for the young players. Hats off tonight to Gary Pinkel and these Missouri Tigers.”

#3: How in the world did they just beat Notre Dame? (10/2/1972)

Mizzou football in the 1970’s can be defined by the following made-up conversation between them and a personified version of circumstances:

Circumstances: Certain results should not happen, and there are many logical reasons why

Mizzou: Check this out lol

Entering the contest, Notre Dame was rolling. The Irish had defeated their first four opponents by a combined 100 points, including two road shutouts at Northwestern and Michigan State. They were potent on both sides of the ball, with the charge being led by a handful of future pros.

Meanwhile, Mizzou was 2-3, had been walloped 62-0 by Nebraska the week prior and were without their top three running backs. In a wishbone offense, where running backs are an essential component to not just success, but mere operation, playing without your top three running backs is extra killer. Also, Notre Dame had arguably the best defensive line in the country.

On the other side of the ball, the Tigers were discombobulated defensively. Even if the Nebraska game is removed from the sample, Mizzou had allowed 23.25 points per game against its first four opponents. For context, 1972 Navy allowed 23.4 points per game over the entire season and finished 90th out of 127 FBS teams in that category. Last season, Fresno State and Oklahoma allowed 23.5 points per game and finished tied for 48th out of 133 FBS teams in that category. Three touchdowns and change was a lot back then!

The South Bend night was frigid and foggy. Notre Dame was favored by 35 points.

Mizzou scored 30 points.

They also won.

Even the finest movie directors would have a difficult time replicating this Quarterback John Cherry was brilliant. Mizzou’s battered and beaten up offense sailed smoothly, totaling 223 yards on the ground and 106 in the air. The Tigers forced three Irish turnovers while not giving up the ball themselves.

#2: How in the world did they just beat Notre Dame (Part 2)? (9/9/1978)

https://www.rockmnation.com/pages/september-9-1978-mizzou-3-notre

Remember that hypothetical conversation between Circumstances and Mizzou football from earlier? Six years after the Tigers shocked the Irish in South Bend, the same conversation proved to be true once again.

Entering the 1978 season, the Irish were the defending national champions and were ranked fifth in the preseason AP poll. Their star quarterback was back to lead an offense that returned almost every major contributor from the year before; his name was Joe Montana. Notre Dame was almost a 20-point favorite at home facing a Mizzou squad playing its first game under new head coach Warren Powers. It was also around 100 degrees in South Bend.

The actual game itself saw Notre Dame in far more advantageous scoring positions than Mizzou. With some help from MU punter Monte Montgomery, who struggled for most of the afternoon, the Irish were living in Tiger territory all game long. On the other side, Mizzou’s offense mustered up just three points, which didn’t come until 12:50 left in regulation.

All signs pointed to a Notre Dame victory…but the signs proved to be wrong. There was no Irish win at the end of the arrows. The three points were all that the Tigers ended up needing, as they walked out of northern Indiana as Goliath slayers once again.

This might be the single most Herculean defensive performance in Mizzou history. Notre Dame created nine decent scoring opportunities (including five trips inside of the MU 25-yard line) and came away with zero points. It seemed as if the Tiger defense strengthened as the Irish inched closer to paydirt; Mizzou would either intercept Montana, recover a fumble or stop Notre Dame on fourth down. Montana was held to just four completions in 17 attempts and threw two interceptions in the first half alone. It was the first time ND had been shut out since 1965 and marked Montana’s worst collegiate game to date.

In the same year that Mizzou would shatter Nebraska’s national title hopes in November, the Tigers got the upset party started in September. The improbable victory added to MU’s treasure trove of upset victories throughout the 1970’s, which was almost lengthened the next week when Mizzou gave top-ranked Alabama a scare in Columbia.

#1: The first bowl win in Mizzou history (1/2/1961)

Playing in a major bowl game is a tremendous honor. It’s a celebration of a spectacular season in a (usually) glamorous venue.

But heading into the 1961 Orange Bowl against Navy, Mizzou had been freshly stung. A national championship had evaporated at the hands of unranked Kansas the week prior. The pain only worsened when KU star fullback Bert Coan, who played a major role in derailing MU’s national championship hopes, was deemed ineligible by the NCAA after months of investigation. Instead, it would be 8-1 Minnesota, who’d lost to eventual 4-4-1 Purdue just two weeks before, claiming the 1960 national title.

This all led the Tigers to Miami, where Dan Devine’s crew would face Navy, who were captained by Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Joe Bellino. In a battle of elite ground attacks under the watch of the newly-elected president John F. Kennedy, Mizzou outdueled Navy on the back of Mel West (108 of MU’s 223 rushing yards) and a phenomenal defensive effort. Bellino was held to just four rushing yards, and the Tigers came away with three interceptions, which included a 90-yard pick-six by Norm Beal in the first quarter.

The victory marked Mizzou’s first bowl win in program history; the Tigers had lost their previous six, which included the previous year’s Orange Bowl against Georgia.

This wasn’t what MU wanted. The incomparably sweet nectar of a national championship, a first-time visit to the summit of college football, was within arm’s length…only for their arch-nemesis to deny them at the gates of glory. But if there were any consolation, taking down the mighty Midshipmen in front of the future President is a pretty good one.

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Commute: SEC Announces Tip Times for Basketball

Oct 11, 2024 | ,


The Morning Commute for October 11, 2024

Welcome to the Morning Commute

The SEC Announced it’s tip times for Men’s and Women’s Basketball yesterday. Here’s the tweet from the official Mizzou Hoops page:

If I may, a moment to complain.

I don’t often get up in arms about things like when a game is played. We all have our preferences, but for the most part I’m happy to watch any time they want to play as long as it’s not in the middle of the night.

But I’ll happily find something to complain about with some of these non conference times. Missouri has arguably two of the best non-conference games in the country on an annual basis and each game is scheduled for Sunday at noon? Going up against the NFL.

At least the MU-KU game isn’t up against the Chiefs who play Sunday night. But the Braggin’ Rights game is up against the Chiefs, and it doesn’t feel right playing that game in the day time. Braggin’ Rights needs an 8pm Central tip time to feel right.

Instead we’ll be watching just after brunch. It feels weird.

Yesterday at Rock M and Rock M+

Quarterback Taison Phommachanh is like a poor man’s Thomas Castellanos, scrambling when necessary and hitting the occasional deep ball. But he, and the infrastructure around him, is not enough to threaten Mizzou’s defense. At 107th overall in the country, this is one of the worst offenses in the sport.

Oh boy! I know it’s hard to predict what a team will look like when you schedule 6-8 years out but also THIS IS WHY YOU SHOULDN’T SCHEDULE THAT FAR OUT! Motion to move to scheduling games two years out at most? All in favor say Aye!

The difference was that, unlike the other defeated giants, Mizzou was trounced from the get-go; its 24-0 halftime deficit was its greatest since 2021. Through five games, the Tigers look more like a contender for the Music City Bowl rather than the College Football Playoff. It’s why Drinkwitz felt the need to say that the sky, which has existed as long as the universe, was not going to do something it had never done in almost 14 billion years.

Closer to four and a half billion, but otherwise correct!

Next on the schedule is two teams close in distance but far away in terms of success: Ole Miss (5-9, 0-5 SEC) and Mississippi State (10-1, 4-0 SEC).

As a brief background, Miya utilizes something called the “Bayesian Performance Rating.” It’s a pretty unique thing in college basketball as it identifies player-level data on BOTH ends of the court. For all of the great metrics we have out there, most are either 1. Team Oriented and/or skewed heavily to offensive performance. BPR’s stated purpose is to have a number that reflects the number of points per 100 possessions better/worse a player makes his team if he were on the court with 9 other average players. It’s not a perfect measurement, of course. Defensive impact in a team sport like basketball is hard to quantify perfectly. Yet BPR for my money is the best tool we have to get a glimpse how how impactful an individual player was.

There was only one hangup I have with his system. As you can see above, it’s a rate based measurement. Meaning, the measurement is limited to a rate per 100 possessions. I don’t believe it properly accounts for how much/how little the player in question is on the court. So…I fixed it.

Behold: The PAR Rankings!!!

Some of what he developed we applied to the previews, I think they’re a lot better this year FWIW.

Rock M Radio: How much fun can it be previewing UMass?

Subscribe to Rock M Radio on Apple Podcasts. Or stream episodes through Megaphone or Spotify. Have a question for us? Leave a 5-star review with your question and that show just might answer it in an upcoming episode!

If you like Rock M Radio drop us a Review and be sure to subscribe on your preferred podcasting platform. Follow @RockMRadio on Twitter and if you heaven’t already head over to our YouTube channel and click that subscribe button!

  • (** RockMNation has affiliate partnerships. These do not influence editorial content, though RockMNation may earn commissions for products purchased via affiliate links.**)

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Commute: SEC Announces Tip Times for Basketball

Commute: SEC Announces Tip Times for Basketball

Oct 11, 2024 |

The Morning Commute for October 11, 2024 Welcome to the Morning Commute The SEC Announced it’s tip times for Men’s and Women’s Basketball yesterday. Here’s the tweet from the official Mizzou Hoops page: Mark your calendars and tune in The @SEC announces game times and...

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Mizzou soccer crushes Ole Miss 5-0 in home win

Oct 11, 2024 |

Florida’s Oakley Rasmussen (22, right) fights for a ball against Missouri midfielder Milena Fischer (9) in the first half of a game on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, at Walton Stadium. (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation) | (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation)

Fischer leads the way with her first career hat trick

As the season rolls on Mizzou soccer (4-7-2, 2-3-1 SEC) gets better and better, highlighted by a 5-0 win over Ole Miss (5-10, 0-6 SEC). This is the first time under head Coach Stefanie Golan where the team has scored five goals in an SEC game, also marking the largest conference win under her tenure.

Senior Milena Fischer was the offensive superstar, finishing the game with her first collegiate hat trick. Fischer opened the scoring in the 11th minute, taking a nifty pass from Leah Selm before splitting a pair of defenders and sliding it under the goalie’s hand.

Fischer’s second goal of the night put the Tigers up 4-0 in the 50th minute, slamming the hammer down and furthering her scoring lead for the Tigers. Her final goal closed the scoring in the 83rd minute, curving her shot up-and-over the Rebel keeper from right outside of the box.

The German senior leads the team outright with six goals and 13 points. Fun fact— this was the first Tiger hat trick since 2019, and their first one as a program in the SEC. Not too shabby!

The second goal marked the first career goal for freshman Emily Derucki late in the first half. Coming off the bench Derucki scored on a free kick, blasting the ball left of the Rebel wall and just inside the goal post. After playing 40-plus minutes in every SEC game thus far it felt like a matter of time before the freshman finally scored her first goal.

The Tigers opened the second half with a similar mindset, as Jessica Larson scored her first goal of the season in the first minute. Ole Miss attempted to dash away from the goal to force a Mizzou offside call, but Larson stayed patient, hanging onside for JUST long enough and had all the time of the world to put it past the keeper.

But this game was filled with more than just offensive highlights. Kate Phillips made a crucial save in net during the 17th minute, turning away a Rebel penalty kick and hold the Tiger lead at one. Phillips finished with five saves including several at point blank. The sophomore has continued her red hot streak after allowing only two goals in her last four matchups.

Through six games the Tigers now have seven SEC points, surpassing their total from last season (4). With this win the Tigers are expected to sit tied-9th in the SEC, sitting pretty to secure a top 12 seed and make their first SEC Tournament in the Golan era.

But the path to Pensacola doesn’t get any easier, as they travel to play No. 4 Mississippi State (11-1, 5-0 SEC) at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, Oct. 13.

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Mizzou soccer crushes Ole Miss 5-0 in home win

Mizzou soccer crushes Ole Miss 5-0 in home win

Oct 11, 2024 |

Florida’s Oakley Rasmussen (22, right) fights for a ball against Missouri midfielder Milena Fischer (9) in the first half of a game on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, at Walton Stadium. (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation) | (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation) Fischer leads the way with her...

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SEC Hoops Preview: South Carolina Gamecocks

Oct 10, 2024 | ,

NCAA Basketball: South Carolina at Mississippi
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Previewing the South Carolina Gamecocks Men’s Basketball team. How will Lamont Paris make his encore?

Two years ago, everyone under the sun, myself included, predicted a difficult entry for Lamont Paris into SEC Basketball. We were largely correct. South Carolina didn’t have the dubious claim of being the worst team in the league, but they did secure the league’s worst KenPom rating by around 70 spots.

Without the NBA talent of G.G. Jackson heading into last season, Carolina’s prospects were grim again. The Gamecocks were picked last by just about everyone, including most analytics services (except for Kenpom, which projected a top-70 finish but was still in the bottom four of the league). We picked them last.

They did not finish last. South Carolina finished in a four-way tie for second place with Auburn, Alabama, and Kentucky. A tiebreaker sent them to the 5th seed in the conference tournament, where they were blown out by No. 4 seed Auburn. On Selection Sunday, Paris’ group was handed a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There, they lost to Oregon in the first round. With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to see how Paris’ team found success. They defended, forcing teams to settle for defended jump shots, then kept them off the glass. The offense could stall out sometimes, but with guys like Meechie Johnson and B.J. Mack, there was enough to get by.

So why are we so low on the Gamecocks after they proved everyone wrong last year? Maybe we’ll be forced to learn another harsh lesson in doubting Lamont Paris, but while last year’s team had many questions about them, this year’s team has even more.

USC Preview

South Carolina Gamecocks

Last season: 26 – 8 (13-5 in conference) #54

The Masses Prediction: 13th in conference, 5 – 13

Analytics Average: 16th in conference, 71st overall

Oregon v South Carolina
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

HEAD COACH: Lamont Paris | 3rd Season, 37-29

Nobody knows how innacurate early season picks can be like Lamont Paris. Last year, when the Gamecocks were picked last, he opined to an SEC scribe:

Does anyone know how many of those (picks) were right? Zero.

But wait. There’s more. Paris calculated the deviations and found that seven of the 14 picks were off by more than four spots, one pick was off by seven spots, and another by eight places.

He’s right! Most of the time, preseason picks are bad! Part of this comes down to the fact that only a few teams are good, a few are bad, and everyone else is very close to each other. So, results tend to fall within a few possessions here and there to sort out the order.

South Carolina used that recipe last season en route to their most conference wins since going 15-1 in the 1997 season under Eddie Fogler. They won close games, and they look a lot like the Wisconsin teams. Paris was an assistant coach for so many seasons. Paris came up under Bo Ryan from 2010 to 2017 when the Badgers were rarely the most talented team in the Big Ten but always contended for league titles through reliable defense and disciplined offense.

Last year, Paris proved he can do the rest when he has enough talent.

2024 preview 10 year look south carolina

If there’s a challenge in front of Paris, it’s finding consistency where you routinely make the tournament. That’s tough at a school that has only lightly supported basketball over the years. In terms of where fans have traditionally spent their time, attention, and money, it’s been football first and then baseball next, ahead of hoops. Dawn Staley has proven you can win big in basketball, but she’s also a unicorn, and women’s hoops are not as competitive as the men’s game. Meanwhile, the men’s program has seen NCAA Tournament play just five times since joining the SEC in 1991.

In contrast, Mizzou has made the tournament four times since joining the SEC in 2012, with a 5th trip the season before. In fact, South Carolina has the lowest tournament appearance rate in the SEC by a good margin.

They’ve only made five trips since 1996-97; the only comparable peers are Georgia and Ole Miss. Next are LSU and Mississippi State. Meanwhile, eleven SEC schools have made the tournament five times since 2011.

The expectations just aren’t there.

LOST PRODUCTION

Minutes: 51.77% | 6th
Points: 58.12% | 7th
Possessions: 56.95% | 7th

If you were to glance at the numbers above, it might not be so bad for the Gamecocks as they prepare for the 2024-25 season. But there are some significant losses. Paris marched through the SEC a season ago with a relatively tight seven-player rotation. There were a few other spot appearances, but on a nightly bases he was funnelling 85% of the teams minutes toward that core. Four of them are back, but the three who are gone were ranked first, second, and third in minutes. They were also the top three scorers. And the top three in possessions used.

The two players who significantly influenced the team’s possession (36% of the team’s total all year) were Mack and Johnson. Mack’s eligibility has expired, and Johnson has chosen to transfer back home to play for Ohio State in his final year. Another significant departure is Ta’lon Cooper, the starting point guard who provided a stabilizing influence for the Gamecocks last year. While not a primary scorer or a major possession player, Cooper managed to occupy 83% of the minutes at his position.

NCAA Basketball: SEC Conference Tournament Second Round-Arkansas vs South Carolina
Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
2024 preview South Carolina roster

The best news of the offseason for Lamont Paris was the return of Collin Murray-Boyles.

Murray-Boyle’s stats are also constrained by the fact he missed six games to start the year with mononucleosis. That illness also limited his minutes in another eight outings. From the start of SEC play, he averaged 26.6 minutes per game.

Entering this season, Murray-Boyles is a favorite among NBA draftniks. But unlike last season, the sophomore won’t be an X-factor while defenses focus on Johnson, Cooper and Mack. (As his usage and role expand, it’ll be worth monitoring whether he posts a similarly gaudy 121.5 offensive rating.) Murray-Boyles wasn’t a floor spacer, as he only attempted five 3s all season, but you can get away with that when you shoot over 60% on your 2-point shots.

What Paris desperately needs is a proven secondary threat. At the moment, the best candidate might be Myles Staute. The vet, who transferred in from Vanderbilt last season, has shown he’s a trustworthy defender and capable spot-up threat. But experiments with him as a primary ball-handler have gone poorly.

Per Synergy Sports, Stute’s efficiency plummets to roughly 0.5 points per possession, while his turnover rate spikes to nearly 40 percent. As much as Stute perceives himself as an advantage creator, the data says otherwise.

That leaves Norfolk State transfer Jamarii Thomas as the only player with a heavy usage history. As a pick-and-roll ball handler, Thomas excels. They made up 29% of his possessions last season, and he averaged 0.918 PPP. But this remains a tough sell, because those possessions were primarily run in the MEAC, a low-major conference, and Thomas is an undersized guard trying to make the jump to the SEC.

NCAA Basketball: Norfolk State at Tennessee
Randy Sartin-Imagn Images
2024 preview south carolina depth chart

A challenge with these projections is forecasting usage rates for players who have not traditionally been key cogs but will need to take on a greater number of possessions for this South Carolina roster to work.

Last season, South Carolina played 34 games at a pace of around 65 possessions per contest. That works out to over 2,200 possessions to distribute among the entire roster. When Johnson, Cooper, and Mack left, they took 1,088 possessions, which is 57 percent of the Gamecocks’ total.

Next, let’s look at how many possessions each transfer tallied up at their last stop:

  • Jamarii Thomas: 588
  • Nick Pringle: 203
  • Jordan Butler: 71

That’s 862 touches. It’s also unlikely that Cam Scott, a four-star freshmen, would backfill the remaining 226 possessions. What’s more likely is that role players will have to scale up their usage, which is a risky proposition. Ideally, Paris would be figuring out to optimize ways to use his talent. Instead, he might be in a position where some members of this rotation are being asked to do a bit too much.

2024 preview south carolina non conference schedule
2024 preview south carolina conference schedule

Early projections have the SEC being a very strong league. The benefit of this is it creates opportunities all over. Every road game being a Quad One game is how you can find yourself in the tournament discussion if you’re able to steal a few. Paris set South Carolina up for success with his scheduling, early challenges against Indiana and in the Fort Meyer’s Classic against Xavier are Q1 opportunities, and even Towson, Clemson, and East Carolina will be well looked upon as Q2 and Q3 wins (if you can win them).

The conference schedule isn’t bad for the Gamecocks either, Mississippi State, Florida, and Georgia look tough on paper but none of those teams are currently viewed as likely top 4 finishers. All of the home games are against teams many project in the top half of the conference, and there are several road games against the bottom half. That’s what you call opportunity. In this league, this year, that’s all you can ask.

THE RULING

Lamont Paris is right about preseason picks. They’re often wrong, but they provide a snapshot of the offseason.

Carolina proved doubters last season. So, why are we forecasting them at the bottom of the standings again?

Unlike last season, Paris’ roster doesn’t have 824 games of experience, which ranked fourth in the SEC. Nor are the Gamecocks second in minutes played. Yes, the Gamecocks were overlooked, but they also leaned hard on experience to prove doubters wrong.

This year, the case has flipped. Carolina ranks 15th in games played and last in minutes played at the Division-I level. Murray-Boyles might wind up as an All-SEC performer, but who will complement him in Paris’ rotation? Making up lost production hinges on Thomas hitting it big and replacing what Johnson provided.

Per EvanMiya.com, Thomas projects to finish with a 2.30 BPR, which would have ranked 85th in the SEC last season. That’s well behind Johnson’s performance. We’ve also run through what might hold Stute back from being a headliner.

While I fully expect Murray-Boyles to be awesome, there are questions about how efficiently he does what Paris needs done. Again, he didn’t power the Gamecocks’ offense last season as a playmaker. Murray-Boyles relied on others to set him up. Meanwhile, his 17% assist rate tells us the sophomore isn’t an elite facilitator.

Suppose South Carolina is going to see around the same 2,200 offensive possessions this year. In that case, I’d want Murray-Boyles to handle close to 600 of them, including assists. That’s a 27% usage rate while playing 82.3% of minutes. Over the past five seasons, just four SEC players put up similar figures: J.D. Notae, Wade Taylor IV, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Cam Thomas.

All those players were ball-dominant combo guards, and three were focused heavily on scoring. That’s not to say Murray-Boyles isn’t capable. Still, history tells us that it would be an outlier — and not exactly an ideal recipe for Paris to make doubters dine on crow again.

My Results: South Carolina Gamecocks — 16th in Conference, 5-13

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.

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