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Previewing the Oklahoma Sooners in their first SEC season. Will Porter Moser surpass meager expectations?

Welcome to the SEC, Oklahoma!

It might take a little time to get reacquainted with the old Big 7, Big 8, and Big 12 rival. Missouri and Oklahoma met for the first time in 1949 and played at least once every year until the Tigers departed for the SEC in 2012. They’ve played 140 times as conference foes, with the Sooners owning the slightest of edges. There have also been three more meetings since MU decamped for the SEC, including a first-round tilt during the 2021 NCAA Tournament, with OU claiming all of them.

The OU tradition is proud: 33 NCAA Tournaments, five Final Fours, and 14 conference titles. However, only one of those titles came in the last 35 seasons, and the Sooners have struggled to regain their footing after Buddy Hield led them to a Final Four in 2016. Since then, they’ve made the field of 68 three times but never won more than 20 games.

When Lon Kruger stepped aside, the program turned to Porter Moster, one of the hottest names on the coaching carousel. However, it’s been tough sledding since he arrived in Norman. After a 13-1 start last season, OU tailed off to an 8-10 finish in the Big 12, a quick exit from their conference tournament, and missing the big dance for a third consecutive season.

What’s in store for the Sooners as they transition to a new league?

Previous SEC Previews

• 14. Georgia Bulldogs, 6-12
• 15. LSU Tigers, 5-13
• 16. South Carolina Gamecocks, 5-13

Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

Oklahoma Sooners

Last season: 20 – 12 (8-10 in conference) #46

The Masses Prediction: 13th in conference, 5.2 – 12.8

SEC Media: 15th in conference

Analytics Average: 11th in conference, 44th overall

Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

HEAD COACH: Porter Moser | 4th Season, 54-45

Moser’s resume is an excellent example of how a coach’s evolution requires patience. Shortly after his playing days ended at Creighton, he quickly transitioned to the bench. By the late ‘90s, he landed at UALR, taking the head gig in 2000. A decent run in Little Rock led to a modest jump to Illinois State in the Missouri Valley, but Moser was out after four seasons.

But Moser started rehabbing his rep by spending four years on Rick Majerus’ staff at Saint Louis. From there, he jumped to Loyola Chicago, a moribund program in the Horizon League. When he arrived in 2011, the Ramblers had made just one trip to the dance since 1969. You know what happened next: a steady build that culminated with a Final Four run in 2018 and a Sweet 16 trip in 2021.

The success could have landed Moser at just about any job, but he took the OU gig. Despite a bumpy three years, Moser is still one of the most respected basketball coaches in the country.

He inherited a program that has been just as likely to miss the dance as it is to see its name pop up on Selection Sunday. The Sooners have never cratered, but they haven’t been a legitimate threat in a deep Big 12. They’ve just sorted of drifted toward the middle of the pack.

Maybe in this way a move to the SEC will benefit the program, perhaps some level of variance?

LOST PRODUCTION

% Minutes: 74.62% | 12th
% Points: 74.38% | 12th
% Possessions: 74.16% | 12th

Suppose you’re missing the NCAA Tournament by a hair and have a team led mainly by non-seniors. Traditionally, you’d expect to retain that talent, nurture your core, and return stronger. But these days, the transfer portal and NIL can turn that middling (but developing) roster on its head.

It’s precisely what happened in Norman.

The Sooners only lost three players to graduation or expiring eligibility, but five others hit the transfer portal. And of those five, three were among the Sooners’ leading scorers. Losing that sort of production from players who have been in your program and developed could signal some NIL struggles.

Milos Uzan went to Houston, Otega Oweh landed at Kentucky, and Javian McCollum landed at Georgia Tech.

Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Returning about 25% of production from a bubble team isn’t ideal, especially when you’re gearing up to join a new conference.

Jalon Moore is the only returner of substance, and he was a role player last season as a small-ball four. At 6-foot-7 and 220 pounds, he’s not exactly a frontcourt piece you can build around. His best role offensively is without the ball, capitalizing on kick-outs and timely cuts to the rim.

So, who does Moser have as a focal point?

The best bet is Duke Miles, a transfer point guard from High Point. If High Point sounds obscure, you aren’t deeply invested in the Big South Conference, where the Panthers are coming off their best season in ages under new head coach Alan Huss, a former Creighton assistant. HPU’s offense relied on Miles as a crafty operator in pick-and-rolls and handoffs to apply pressure on the rim. Miles also shot 36% from 3-point range but on a relatively modest 3.1 attempts per game.

Outside of Miles, there isn’t another proven offensive threat. Jeff Nwanko, one of the better JUCO prospects nationally, might have filled that void, but he tore his Achilles tendon during summer workouts.

The Sooners tried to add other impact players but saw transfers like Sean Pedulla and Kadary Richmond opt for bigger paydays elsewhere. This left Moser scrambling to add players who would otherwise be depth pieces on a high-major roster. Mohamed Wague is a big who logged seasons at Alabama and West Virginia. Jadon Jones averaged roughly 12 points per game at Long Beach State. Kobe Elvis was a fine rotational player on quality Dayton squads.

The lack of playmakers led OU to take a chance on Jeremiah Fears, a four-star point guard who decommitted from Illinois to reclassify into the 2024 cycle. Fears looks to score first, but I’m skeptical of younger players like him making a quick impression.

Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images

The funky nature of Porter’s retooling effort makes it tricky to project the Sooners’ rotation.

The players he’s likely to rely on are all up-transfers, and with that comes variance. Often, those players sacrifice some combination of minutes and usage to maintain their efficiency. But that also assumes the roster they’ve joined retained some reliable pieces. Meanwhile, lateral transfers — like Wague or Glenn Taylor Jr. — often turn into production that mirrors what they did at their last stop.

So, a lot has to swing the Sooners’ way for this to go right.

At least you have Moore, who reached double figures of 13 of 18 games during Big 12 play. (Granted, he only eclipsed 20 points twice.) The key for Moore is his inconsistent and sparse three-point shooting. While he did shoot 41% from three-point range, it only happened with 61 attempts. If Moore can find a way to double his catch-and-shoot opportunities, he would slot more easily into the secondary scorer role behind Miles.

Matters are trickier at combo guard and on the wing. OU has bodies, but none boast a history of heavy production on a high-major roster. Taylor, who started at Oregon State, improved his efficiency with St. John’s last season, which could translate into a more prominent role for Moser. But that might be a bigger ask for imports like Elvis and Jones.

Projections for BPR on Mohamed Wague are pretty high, but it’s hard to envision him getting the lion’s share of playing time when he averaged 10 minutes at West Virginia and 8 minutes at Alabama.

Oklahoma has just a single Quad-1 game currently in their non-conference schedule. A meeting with Providence at the Battle 4 Atlantis looms large. Win that, and the Sooners will likely face Arizona for a second high-quality matchup. Lose, and you’re likely getting Davidson.

We’re using preseason ratings to project where teams will land in various quads, and there’s always a chance reality leads to a tougher schedule. Still, Oklahoma State is rebuilding under Steve Lutz and picked to finish toward the bottom of the Big 12. Georgia Tech will likely scrap to reach the middle of the standings in a weaker ACC. And who knows where Michigan winds up in its first season with Dusty May at the helm.

However, the SEC didn’t grant any scheduling favors. The Sooners’ road opponents have an average rank of 30.3 in analytic models, which puts pressure on OU to be tough at home.

THE RULING

I still fully believe in Moser’s ability as a good- and possibly great – coach. But are his bosses and boosters fully invested in his program? Even if there wasn’t reporting about the program’s NIL issues, the exodus of talent would strongly imply questions about adequate funding for a payroll. And these days, you can’t entirely separate NIL from a coach’s schematic acumen.

Either Moser is a poor recruiter, or he has a smaller bankroll. After the Sooners missed multiple prospects, they secured Miles, Taylor, and others to stem the bleeding. But it’s challenging to look at the quality level of this roster in comparison to others in the SEC and think the Sooners are set up for success.

Despite my reservations, I believe Moser can maximize the potential of the current roster to ensure their competitiveness. Oklahoma can be expected to excel defensively, execute well on offense, take good shots, and minimize errors.

The starting point might be better than anticipated if Miles can efficiently eat up possessions. This would give Moser the flexibility to adjust his offense away from a questionable front line and towards a collective effort among his perimeter players.

However, this would also necessitate a change in Moser’s coaching philosophy. While he has never prioritized outside shooting, this might be the group to experiment with it, a shift that could potentially redefine the team’s playing style.

Although Moser has never been the type to prioritize outside shooting, this might be the group to do that with. For example, here are the best 3-point shooting seasons from potential members of his rotation:

• Moore: 41%
• Miles: 47.1%
• Elvis: 41.9%
• Jones: 44.4%
• Taylor: 42.4%
• Goodine: 46.7%

Last season, OU attempted 38.5% of their FGA from outside the 3-point arc, which is average for a Division-I team. Moser should look to get up over 40%, which should be enough of an efficiency boost to get the Sooners into the NCAA Tournament conversation. All that would be left is to not get killed on defense, and you should be able to trust Moser to handle that part.

Hope isn’t lost here, but it would help the coach and the program if he didn’t have to connect that many dots to make the team competitive.

My Results: Oklahoma Sooners — 13th in Conference, 7-11

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.