Previewing the Mississippi State Bulldogs Men’s Basketball team. Does Chris Jans have enough answere in the front court?

If any single team will look very different despite essentially looking the same, it’s the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Chris Jans inherited a solid roster from Ben Howland and stuck mainly with the premise of a big, physical, athletic team that would defend like hell. For the last few years, the Bulldogs have centered around a center, Tolu Smith. A throwback to a mostly by-gone era of college basketball teams focused around a stout back-to-the-basket big man, Smith was the primary driver for the MSU offense under Howland and then Jans.

But here’s the thing about college eligibility: eventually, it does run out. And Tolu is finally out of eligibility. So what’s next is the first full unassisted Chris Jans roster. We’re all going to see how this turns out.

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Previous SEC Previews:

• 12. Vanderbilt Commodores, 7-11
• 13. Oklahoma Sooners, 7-11
• 14. Georgia Bulldogs, 6-12
• 15. LSU Tigers, 5-13
• 16. South Carolina Gamecocks, 5-13

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Last season: 21 – 14 (8-10 in conference) #34

The Masses Prediction: 11th in conference, 7.5 – 10.5

SEC Media: 10th in conference

Analytics Average: 6th in conference, 26th overall

Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

HEAD COACH: Chris Jans | 3rd Season, 42-27

Jans is a good hire in many ways for a school like State, which doesn’t have the deep pockets of some peers in its conference. Jans has a history in the junior college ranks, where you’re flipping half your roster (at least) every year, and the ways with which you flip your roster are generally very creative.

It’s why he was able to get such a high return while he was at New Mexico State and why he should be able to keep the boat above water in the era of the transfer portal, NIL, and the challenges that go along with it. Jans was handed a solid and playable hand when he took over, and he played it well—right into two NCAA Tournament berths. But the bulk of those rosters are gone, and Jans went out and got creative.

He is accustomed to assembling a roster of assassins, getting the best talent he can accumulate, and seeing where the chips fall.

The last few years under Jans have been a roller coaster of offense, both awful and decent, while the defense has remained pretty steady. Fielding a remotely decent offense last season netted an 8 seed, whereas the season before, they squeaked into one of the last spots with a horrible offense but an even better defense.

Both Ben Howland and Jans have toyed with the edges of the Tournament bubble in the last 10 years, but it’s been since 2008 the last time State won a game in the NCAA Tournament. And even longer than that since the program has seen a protected seed. Jans has made back to back tournaments but can he elevate this program into the next tier, even for a season?

LOST PRODUCTION

% Minutes: 57.55% | 7th
% Points: 52.74% | 6th
% Possessions: 55.14% | 6th

Tolu Smith, anyone?

Of course, we’ve already talked about Smith and his absence. He missed the first part of the season and still accumulated over 13% of both possessions and points in just 46% of the minutes. But Smith wasn’t the only exit from the roster, as 6 of the top 8 scorers also went out the door through either transfer or expiring eligibility, most from the latter.

Jans fielded a highly experienced roster a year ago and four of the six all left by graduation. Losing Shakeel Moore and Dashawn Davis should cause a hit, but the significant loss is Smith. His consistent production in the middle of the offense powered the Bulldogs for four seasons.

Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The biggest coup for Chris Jans was keeping Josh Hubbard out of the transfer portal because few freshmen in the country had the kind of impact Hubbard had. 27 and a half minutes a game (only twice playing fewer than 20), and nearly every night showing up with the kind of offensive efficiency Jans and the Bulldogs missed the year before. Hubbard only posted less than 1.0 points per possession in six games last season, remarkable for a freshman guard. Hubbard is on the smaller side but doesn’t play like it. He’s a high-level athlete who creates space and gets off the floor on his shot. He’s a good jump shooter and at getting in the lane, although his size prevents him from being effective at the rim. The offense went through Hubbard all year despite Tolu’s presence. And it will go through Hubbard again this year.

Also coming back is Cameron Matthews, who you might remember as the guy who looks like he should be playing football. At 6’7 “and 235 lbs of granite, Matthews is a powerful defender and rebounder, though he only occasionally tries to play offense. When he attacks downhill, he can display a soft touch at the rim. He’s in the 95th percentile for shots at the rim, but he only attempted 23 jump shots last year. He did make two of them!

With so many guards out the door, Jans dipped into the transfer portal to bolster the depth behind Hubbard. How they mix will be interesting, but Kanye Clary was a very high-usage point guard at Penn State before being kicked off the team 23 games into the season. Before his separation, Clary sported a respectable 108.7 offensive rating playing in a ton of ball screens. Over 50% of his play calls came via the pick-and-roll, so he should fit right in with Hubbard, who ran it nearly 30% of the time.

Claudell Harris Jr. was a double-digit scorer at Boston College, doing a lot of his work off the ball. To solve the empty spot at the wing, MSU added Florida Gators transfer Riley Kugel and Georgia Bulldogs transfer R.J. Melendez. Kugel initially committed to Mississippi State out of high school before Ben Howland left, so in a way, he’s back home. Melendez began his career at Illinois but struggled to fit into Brad Underwood’s system. He spent last year at Georgia.

Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Of all our projections so far, this is one about which I’m the least sure, mainly because the roster is a bit weird.

Jans moved swiftly this offseason and seemed to make concessions out of practicality. Hubbard is clearly at the top of the lineup. As long as Hubbard is healthy, he should see the lion’s share of the minutes and remain high-usage. Behind him should be Cameron Matthews. As a tone-setter and versatile defender, he’s hard to beat.

The problems with the roster? Jans has moved quickly from a roster full of big and strong front-court players to almost the opposite. The depth in the post isn’t ideal, with KeyShawn Murphy only playing 40 games over the last two years. Murphy originally entered the transfer portal but ultimately decided to stick it out in Starkville. Then, via the portal, Jans added Rhode Island transfer Jeremy Foumena, someone who took four DNPs in the season’s final seven games. He also added Miami transfer Michael Nwoko, who played over 20 minutes just two times last season but saw 10 minutes or less (including 3 DNPs) 25 times in 32 games.

So, the pressing question is what Jans plans to do to firm up the middle of his defense. Spots one through four are set, especially when he has Hubbard and Clary comfortable with the ball in their hands. If anything, it will be interesting to see how they’re used together.

There aren’t many teams in recent SEC history who can survive a sub-.500 league record and still see themselves safely in the NCAA Tournament. Yet, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have done so in back-to-back years.

One of the ways Jans has managed his team to be in the same position each year is with smart scheduling. And he’s done it again this year. Two years ago, the Bulldogs entered league play 11-1 with wins over Marquette (which aged very nicely) and Utah in the top 100. He also scheduled a neutral site contest against a solid Akron team, beat Minnesota (a bad Big 10 team) on the road, and only lost to a good Drake squad on a neutral court. So, really, only five games that would appear challenging.

Then, last year, it was a lot of the same. There were no elite teams on the schedule, but only one team finished below 300 in KenPom, and there were six neutral-site games with one away game. Thanks to all those difficult neutral-site games, they were even able to survive a home loss to Southern. The best team they played was 41st-ranked Northwestern, and everyone else was inside 303rd-ranked Bethune Cookman.

This year, Utah will be in a semi-home game, SMU will be in Dallas, UNLV will be in Butler and Northwestern will be in an MTE in Arizona, Pitt, McNeese, and Memphis will be on the road. There’s nothing there that isn’t manageable for a good team. And very few of those games will get you punished if you lose a couple. Just don’t lose more than a couple.

THE RULING

The success of the season is really going to hinge on the rest of the roster built outside of Hubbard and Matthews. At this stage, they are both what you might call “known” quantities. What is unknown is how Jans will manage the rest of the roster.

There are some things to like. Two strong lead guards like Clary and Hubbard, a quality combo guard like Claudell Harris, and then a couple wings in Kugel and Melendez help space the floor. It’s unclear how much Clary will see the primary ball handler spot. Still, the initial projection of around 37% of minutes is low. Even Hubbard’s projection could be low, but aside from one year at New Mexico State, Jans hasn’t played his primary top players more than 75% of the minutes.

The concern here is twofold. Not only are both your lead guards on the smaller side, but Harris isn’t massive, either. So, no matter the combination, the lineup is small up front. This isn’t a big deal if you have the depth and size to back them up, and there is the most significant question mark with this roster. There are five traditional post players on this roster, and none of them have been put in a position to serve for a large number of minutes. Jans either trusts Murphy will step up or hopes he’ll get something from one of the rest. Gai Chol is a player we haven’t even mentioned yet. Chol played a decent role early for the Bulldogs until Tolu returned from injury. In SEC play, he saw the floor for 8 minutes in total.

The post rotation is going to need to be a surprise in some way for this team to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The guard rotation should be fine, although Clary has a reputation for being problematic in the locker room. At least Jans has a history of dealing with and making all sorts of personalities meld together. He’s got his work cut out with Clary and Riley Kugel, who left Florida in dismay due to a lack of touches. Then committed to Kansas before defecting to Mississippi State.

It’s a lot to handle, even for Jans.

My Results: Mississippi State Bulldogs — 11th in Conference, 7-11

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About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.