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Tiger Targets: Mizzou soccer faces must-win in SEC tournament hunt

Missouri goalkeeper Kate Phillips (1) makes a save against Florida midfielder Madison Jones (10) in the first half of a game on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, at Walton Stadium. | (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation)

This one may decide the season

Mizzou soccer (4-8-2, 2-4-1 SEC) emerged from this past week at 1-1, with an even five goals-for and five goals-against. The positives came in the 5-0 win at home against Ole Miss, marking the largest SEC win since the Tigers joined the conference WAY back in 2012.

But Mizzou ran into a buzz saw in the form of No.4 Mississippi State, falling to the Bulldogs 5-0 in Starkville. The Tigers struggled to gather momentum, as they were outshot 20-3 throughout the match.

Now with three matches left on the calendar, Mizzou sits on the edge of the SEC Tournament. While the Tigers don’t have to win out in order to qualify, there are several matchups where points are needed to stay in contention. Perhaps the most important match down the stretch comes to kick off Homecoming Weekend against Oklahoma.

Here’s a comprehensive look at this past week, a look ahead to the Sooners and a comprehensive guide to the SEC soccer standings.

What went well?

Let’s start with the good. The Tigers looked in control against Ole Miss, playing their most complete game that I’ve seen in my two years covering the team. After taking a 2-0 lead in the first half, Mizzou controlled the second half in full, winning the shot battle 12-6.

This offensive onslaught was led by senior Milena Fischer, scoring her first collegiate hat trick and the first one for Mizzou since 2019. Fischer did this with extreme efficiency, taking only four shots during the game.

The defensive backline served as an iron wall, as all four primary defenders played all 90 minutes: Callaway Combs, Jessica Larson, Morgan Meador and Mia Yang. In net Kate Phillips held onto the shutout for the second time across the SEC slate.

Another interesting note was the limited number of corner kicks between both teams. They combined for only four corner kicks, with three of those in favor of Mizzou. This sort of running play aspect has benefited the Tigers, letting their offense work in space while the defense can shut down any potential chances on the run.

What went wrong?

The game against Mississippi State was less fun. The Bulldogs dominated all aspects, controlling the shot battle 20-3 and shots on goal 8-0.

The home team took control thanks to their ability to stack goals. After opening the scoring in the 20th minute, Mississippi came right back with their second goal less than 90 seconds later.

This was the same issue faced by the Tigers during their 8-2 loss to Arkansas, as things turned ugly thanks to a pair of goals in the final five minutes of the first half.

During this top tier matchups, Mizzou will need to focus on avoiding these sort of goal groupings, limiting the damaging and consistently shifting the momentum.

The Sooner the better

After starting an impressive 7-1 in the non-conference, the Oklahoma soccer team has stumbled in their first season in the SEC. Currently the Sooners hold four points with a 1-5-1 record, sitting at 15th in the conference.

Oklahoma is currently on a three-game losing streak with no goals scored. It sure hasn’t been from a lack of trying, with 27 shots and nine on goal. One player who’s been leading the offensive charge as of late is German-born senior Leonie Weber. Across these last three games Weber has registered five shots, with only one of them coming on goal. If the Tigers hope to keep that Sooner scoreless streak rolling, keeping Weber away from the box will be essential.

Offensively the Tigers will have to watch out for goalie Caroline Duffy. Across these three losses Duffy has done her part, with a combined 19 saves compared to four goals. This included TEN saves in their 1-0 loss to now No. 5 Arkansas. While Mizzou may not be able to blow three or four goals past Duffy, the Tigers must do everything to secure 1-2 goals in this matchup.

Standings

Currently the Tigers have 7 points in SEC play, sitting at No. 12 in the conference standings. With the top 12 teams making the SEC Tournament, right now the Tigers are making it by the skin of their teeth. But with three games left there’s still plenty of room to maneuver—both up and down.

Interest fact: By the end of Friday, Mizzou could finish anywhere from 6th to 15th in the conference depending on the outcome of their game and the other seven from across the southeast. A stat that is both fascinating and terrifying. (editor’s note: I have chills)

Oklahoma is one of the teams who can catch them and could move above the Tigers with a win in Columbia.

Looking at the big picture, it appears that double-digit conference points is necessary to make the tournament. Looking at their last three games this is the best chance on paper for Mizzou to pick up another win and reach that 10-point mark. While I hate to call anything a must-win, this game gets as close as you can possibly get.

Player to Watch: Milena Fischer

In order to pull off this win, the Tigers will need to be persistent on the offensive end. With the status of Kylee Simmons in doubt, the offensive will need to come from a variety of spots.

There’s no one hotter in the Mizzou front line than Milena Fischer. While she continues to have a senior season to remember, there’d be no bigger game to extend her team lead in goals.

Fischer and the rest of the Tigers reignite their rivalry with the Sooners at 7 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 18 to help kick off HoCo weekend.

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Mizzou vs Auburn Q&A with Adam Cole of Opelika-Auburn News

Auburn v Georgia
Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

The Missouri Tigers look to take advantage of a reeling Auburn team on Homecoming. We previewed the matchup with Adam Cole on our latest opponent Q&A.

Coming off a 45-3 win over UMass, The No. 19 Missouri Tigers (5-1) start the second half of the season with their Homecoming game against the Auburn Tigers (2-4) — who come in having lost three in a row. However, Auburn is the only team that Mizzou hasn’t beaten since joining the SEC.

Kick-off on Saturday at Faurot Field is set for 11:00 a.m. CST on ESPN with Dave Pasch (pxp), Dusty Dvoracek (analyst), and Taylor McGregor (sideline reporter) on the call.

To get a perspective on Auburn, we talked it over with Adam Cole — who covers the other Tigers for the Opelika-Auburn News.

Here’s the Q and A to get you ready:

  1. Sammy Stava: Auburn comes into this game with a 2-4 record. Based off of preseason expectations, how disappointing has the first half been for the Tigers in Year 2 under Hugh Freeze?

Adam Cole: In short, really disappointing. The staff, and a lot of the roster, were super-overhauled for the sake of making this Hugh Freeze offense that much better. After the Week 2 loss at Cal, it was abundantly clear that this offense was dealing with a lot of the same questions it had facing it a season ago. Not to mention that Auburn started the year with a five-game homestand. It was plausible that the Tigers could’ve started the year undefeated, so to come out of it with just two wins — none of which were in conference play — was disheartening.

2. SS: What are the expectations in the second half of the season for Auburn? With their upcoming schedule, do you see the Tigers making a bowl game at this point?

AC: I think there’s hope that Auburn can still make a bowl game. But looking at the slate? That’ll be a tough hill to climb. The remainder of Auburn’s SEC games are against three ranked teams and another that sits on the outskirts of top-25 standing. The other two include one game on the road. And its lone nonconference game includes a one-loss Louisiana-Monroe squad. Sure, it’s feasible. But it’ll take one heck of a turnaround.

3. SS: Starting quarterback Payton Thorne has struggled to get Auburn’s offense going as he’s thrown six interceptions in five games. Meanwhile, freshman quarterback Hank Brown has seen some playing time this season but has been up and down. Will we see both QBs under center on Saturday?

AC: It’ll just be Thorne. Since he returned in the second half of Auburn’s game against Arkansas, he’s had just two turnovers and has looked far more in control of this offense. Should we see anyone but Thorne under center, I’d honestly call it a shock.

4. SS: Besides the quarterback position, who on the offense will need to step up in order for Auburn to pull off the upset? Who on the defensive side will need to have a big game?

AC: I think the biggest thing, which maybe touches on quarterback play, is functionality of the passing game. But at the same time, the run game sets up the pass. And Freeze said this week that Auburn needs to hand the ball off to Jarquez Hunter more. Defensively, Auburn’s secondary needs to step up. Luther Burden and Theo Wease will be their biggest test of the season to this point.

5. SS: Auburn currently comes in as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. How do you see this game going and what’s your final score prediction?

AC: I think Missouri wins. I just haven’t seen Auburn prove capable of winning games of this fashion to this point, and it’s the sort of thing I’ll believe when I see. I do think these passing offenses have the potential to have a day, so I’d say it could be a shootout. My final prediction? 35-24, Mizzou.

A big thanks to Adam for taking his time to answer our questions. You can follow him and AUBlog on X for all things Auburn coverage leading up to Saturday’s game.

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SEC Hoops Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs

NCAA Basketball: SEC Conference Tournament Quarterfinal-Mississippi State vs Tennessee
Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Previewing the Mississippi State Bulldogs Men’s Basketball team. Does Chris Jans have enough answere in the front court?

If any single team will look very different despite essentially looking the same, it’s the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Chris Jans inherited a solid roster from Ben Howland and stuck mainly with the premise of a big, physical, athletic team that would defend like hell. For the last few years, the Bulldogs have centered around a center, Tolu Smith. A throwback to a mostly by-gone era of college basketball teams focused around a stout back-to-the-basket big man, Smith was the primary driver for the MSU offense under Howland and then Jans.

But here’s the thing about college eligibility: eventually, it does run out. And Tolu is finally out of eligibility. So what’s next is the first full unassisted Chris Jans roster. We’re all going to see how this turns out.


Previous SEC Previews:

MSU Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Last season: 21 – 14 (8-10 in conference) #34

The Masses Prediction: 11th in conference, 7.5 – 10.5

SEC Media: 10th in conference

Analytics Average: 6th in conference, 26th overall

NCAA Basketball: SEC Conference Tournament Semifinal-Mississippi State vs Auburn
Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

HEAD COACH: Chris Jans | 3rd Season, 42-27

Jans is a good hire in many ways for a school like State, which doesn’t have the deep pockets of some peers in its conference. Jans has a history in the junior college ranks, where you’re flipping half your roster (at least) every year, and the ways with which you flip your roster are generally very creative.

It’s why he was able to get such a high return while he was at New Mexico State and why he should be able to keep the boat above water in the era of the transfer portal, NIL, and the challenges that go along with it. Jans was handed a solid and playable hand when he took over, and he played it well—right into two NCAA Tournament berths. But the bulk of those rosters are gone, and Jans went out and got creative.

He is accustomed to assembling a roster of assassins, getting the best talent he can accumulate, and seeing where the chips fall.

2024 preview mississippi state 10 year look

The last few years under Jans have been a roller coaster of offense, both awful and decent, while the defense has remained pretty steady. Fielding a remotely decent offense last season netted an 8 seed, whereas the season before, they squeaked into one of the last spots with a horrible offense but an even better defense.

Both Ben Howland and Jans have toyed with the edges of the Tournament bubble in the last 10 years, but it’s been since 2008 the last time State won a game in the NCAA Tournament. And even longer than that since the program has seen a protected seed. Jans has made back to back tournaments but can he elevate this program into the next tier, even for a season?

LOST PRODUCTION

% Minutes: 57.55% | 7th
% Points: 52.74% | 6th
% Possessions: 55.14% | 6th

Tolu Smith, anyone?

Of course, we’ve already talked about Smith and his absence. He missed the first part of the season and still accumulated over 13% of both possessions and points in just 46% of the minutes. But Smith wasn’t the only exit from the roster, as 6 of the top 8 scorers also went out the door through either transfer or expiring eligibility, most from the latter.

Jans fielded a highly experienced roster a year ago and four of the six all left by graduation. Losing Shakeel Moore and Dashawn Davis should cause a hit, but the significant loss is Smith. His consistent production in the middle of the offense powered the Bulldogs for four seasons.

NCAA Basketball: South Carolina at Mississippi State
Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
2024 preview mississippi state roster

The biggest coup for Chris Jans was keeping Josh Hubbard out of the transfer portal because few freshmen in the country had the kind of impact Hubbard had. 27 and a half minutes a game (only twice playing fewer than 20), and nearly every night showing up with the kind of offensive efficiency Jans and the Bulldogs missed the year before. Hubbard only posted less than 1.0 points per possession in six games last season, remarkable for a freshman guard. Hubbard is on the smaller side but doesn’t play like it. He’s a high-level athlete who creates space and gets off the floor on his shot. He’s a good jump shooter and at getting in the lane, although his size prevents him from being effective at the rim. The offense went through Hubbard all year despite Tolu’s presence. And it will go through Hubbard again this year.

Also coming back is Cameron Matthews, who you might remember as the guy who looks like he should be playing football. At 6’7 “and 235 lbs of granite, Matthews is a powerful defender and rebounder, though he only occasionally tries to play offense. When he attacks downhill, he can display a soft touch at the rim. He’s in the 95th percentile for shots at the rim, but he only attempted 23 jump shots last year. He did make two of them!

With so many guards out the door, Jans dipped into the transfer portal to bolster the depth behind Hubbard. How they mix will be interesting, but Kanye Clary was a very high-usage point guard at Penn State before being kicked off the team 23 games into the season. Before his separation, Clary sported a respectable 108.7 offensive rating playing in a ton of ball screens. Over 50% of his play calls came via the pick-and-roll, so he should fit right in with Hubbard, who ran it nearly 30% of the time.

Claudell Harris Jr. was a double-digit scorer at Boston College, doing a lot of his work off the ball. To solve the empty spot at the wing, MSU added Florida Gators transfer Riley Kugel and Georgia Bulldogs transfer R.J. Melendez. Kugel initially committed to Mississippi State out of high school before Ben Howland left, so in a way, he’s back home. Melendez began his career at Illinois but struggled to fit into Brad Underwood’s system. He spent last year at Georgia.

NCAA Basketball: Florida at Kentucky
Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
2024 preview mississippi state depth

Of all our projections so far, this is one about which I’m the least sure, mainly because the roster is a bit weird.

Jans moved swiftly this offseason and seemed to make concessions out of practicality. Hubbard is clearly at the top of the lineup. As long as Hubbard is healthy, he should see the lion’s share of the minutes and remain high-usage. Behind him should be Cameron Matthews. As a tone-setter and versatile defender, he’s hard to beat.

The problems with the roster? Jans has moved quickly from a roster full of big and strong front-court players to almost the opposite. The depth in the post isn’t ideal, with KeyShawn Murphy only playing 40 games over the last two years. Murphy originally entered the transfer portal but ultimately decided to stick it out in Starkville. Then, via the portal, Jans added Rhode Island transfer Jeremy Foumena, someone who took four DNPs in the season’s final seven games. He also added Miami transfer Michael Nwoko, who played over 20 minutes just two times last season but saw 10 minutes or less (including 3 DNPs) 25 times in 32 games.

So, the pressing question is what Jans plans to do to firm up the middle of his defense. Spots one through four are set, especially when he has Hubbard and Clary comfortable with the ball in their hands. If anything, it will be interesting to see how they’re used together.

2024 preview mississippi state non-conference
2024 preview mississippi state conference

There aren’t many teams in recent SEC history who can survive a sub-.500 league record and still see themselves safely in the NCAA Tournament. Yet, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have done so in back-to-back years.

One of the ways Jans has managed his team to be in the same position each year is with smart scheduling. And he’s done it again this year. Two years ago, the Bulldogs entered league play 11-1 with wins over Marquette (which aged very nicely) and Utah in the top 100. He also scheduled a neutral site contest against a solid Akron team, beat Minnesota (a bad Big 10 team) on the road, and only lost to a good Drake squad on a neutral court. So, really, only five games that would appear challenging.

Then, last year, it was a lot of the same. There were no elite teams on the schedule, but only one team finished below 300 in KenPom, and there were six neutral-site games with one away game. Thanks to all those difficult neutral-site games, they were even able to survive a home loss to Southern. The best team they played was 41st-ranked Northwestern, and everyone else was inside 303rd-ranked Bethune Cookman.

This year, Utah will be in a semi-home game, SMU will be in Dallas, UNLV will be in Butler and Northwestern will be in an MTE in Arizona, Pitt, McNeese, and Memphis will be on the road. There’s nothing there that isn’t manageable for a good team. And very few of those games will get you punished if you lose a couple. Just don’t lose more than a couple.

THE RULING

The success of the season is really going to hinge on the rest of the roster built outside of Hubbard and Matthews. At this stage, they are both what you might call “known” quantities. What is unknown is how Jans will manage the rest of the roster.

There are some things to like. Two strong lead guards like Clary and Hubbard, a quality combo guard like Claudell Harris, and then a couple wings in Kugel and Melendez help space the floor. It’s unclear how much Clary will see the primary ball handler spot. Still, the initial projection of around 37% of minutes is low. Even Hubbard’s projection could be low, but aside from one year at New Mexico State, Jans hasn’t played his primary top players more than 75% of the minutes.

The concern here is twofold. Not only are both your lead guards on the smaller side, but Harris isn’t massive, either. So, no matter the combination, the lineup is small up front. This isn’t a big deal if you have the depth and size to back them up, and there is the most significant question mark with this roster. There are five traditional post players on this roster, and none of them have been put in a position to serve for a large number of minutes. Jans either trusts Murphy will step up or hopes he’ll get something from one of the rest. Gai Chol is a player we haven’t even mentioned yet. Chol played a decent role early for the Bulldogs until Tolu returned from injury. In SEC play, he saw the floor for 8 minutes in total.

The post rotation is going to need to be a surprise in some way for this team to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The guard rotation should be fine, although Clary has a reputation for being problematic in the locker room. At least Jans has a history of dealing with and making all sorts of personalities meld together. He’s got his work cut out with Clary and Riley Kugel, who left Florida in dismay due to a lack of touches. Then committed to Kansas before defecting to Mississippi State.

It’s a lot to handle, even for Jans.

My Results: Mississippi State Bulldogs — 11th in Conference, 7-11


About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.

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