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Mizzou Hoops Player Preview: Trent Pierce

NCAA Basketball: Missouri at Pittsburgh
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

After a freshman year to forget, Mizzou’s talented sophomore looks to boost his stock and reassert himself as a key member of the Tigers’ rotation.

Over the weeks leading up to the season, this series will dive deep into the players we see making a push for time in the rotation for the 2024-2025 Missouri basketball squad. The pieces read like a birds-eye scouting report. They skew more toward the offensive end of the court for two reasons. First, a player’s offensive metrics are more reliable than defensive data and less team-dependent. Second, it’s considerably easier to describe a player’s qualities with more well-known offensive statistics. As always, we encourage interaction from our readers. Please drop us a comment or find me on Twitter @DataMizzou.

The film credits are given to Matt Harris. Matt has provided all of the film used in this series, and plenty more video and analysis on every player that can be found on https://rockm.plus.


The Player

“The best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores.” While the lighthearted nature of the quote is understood, there’s also an element of truth to it. Perhaps it’s also the best light to view Trent Pierce’s career so far.

Pierced joined Missouri after a successful high school career in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and a brief stopover at AZ Compass Prep, where he teamed up with another future Tiger in Marcus Allen. His success on the court led to many high-major programs pursuing him and his lofty top-100 ranking in 247Sports’ composite index.

NCAA Basketball: Missouri at Louisiana State
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Pierce’s freshman year in black and gold was forgettable, to put it mildly. The jumbo wing struggled to knock down jumpers and saw his season interrupted by a lengthy illness. When a team only manages eight wins, those struggles get magnified.

However, Pierce has stayed the course. In an era where the slightest blip of adversity will send players straight to the transfer portal, Pierce still trusts the vision laid out for him by coach Dennis Gates. How he capitalizes on that near term will almost assuredly dictate his place as a Mizzou Tiger.

The Numbers


Statistics courtesy of Barttorvik.com.

We’ll just address it right off the bat. The numbers are what they are. And what they are isn’t good.

Pierce’s game hinges on steady shooting, and he struggled from outside. But we’re also dealing with tiny samples. Consider: Trent’s minutes, in sum, add up to less than four games played. Aside from a solid defensive rebound and steal rates to go with decent 2-point shooting, there’s not much of a hook on which to hang the idea that a breakout is imminent.

But that’s not how it always goes.

The 6-foot-10 sophomore is capable of more than that. Possessing an elite shooting stroke for a man his size, it’s not hard to envision things clicking for him. The following clip provides an explanation of his struggles and a justification for believing that production will come.

Pierce has a solid look to his jumper. The release is a little long — bringing the ball down below his waist while loading — but otherwise, Pierce owns a clean and repeatable release. The problem is that the shots weren’t going in.

Pierce found space and took shots within the flow of the offense. Whether the misses were due to a lack of confidence or experience, they were unproductive all the same. The hope is that with a season under his belt and a renewed focus, those same shots start dropping. If they do—and at a respectable rate—MU will have something of a unique player at that size.

Consider this a segue of sorts. The uniqueness in Trent’s game is not simply a player being able to knock down jumpers at 6-foot-10. He can defend well on the perimeter at the same time. Pierce arrived at MU with a reputation as a solid team defender, but there were brief glimpses of sound lateral ability and defensive skills, especially for a guy his size.

The ability to shoot and guard various positions is a coveted skill set, especially within the constraints of switching defense when employing a man-to-man look or the sheer length when employing a zone.

The Role

To have a successful second season, Pierce will need to check both of those boxes. The good news? Having looked back and the full Leonard Hamilton and Dennis Gates era at Florida State, sophomore jumps were common. Employing Evan Miya’s Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) confirms that observation.

BPR, in this context, is an individual metric, and it quantifies how much better or worse the player’s team — here Trent Pierce — is if there were nine average players on the court with him. The metric is judged over 100 possession samples. In Trent’s case, his BPR was 0.12, meaning Mizzou was 0.12 points better over 100 possessions with him on the court. That number is…not great.

But it’s not uncommon either. The Seminoles’ freshmen classes from 2012-2014 — those that were the springboard to their future success — had a median first-year BPR of -0.53. Worse than Trent’s was. What’s more? That median number jumped to 2.22 during their second year. While that figure is not elite, it’s certainly respectable and worthy of a spot in the rotation. It also provides a rough guide for the stakeholders when judging Pierce’s progress at year’s end.

NCAA Basketball: Missouri at Minnesota
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Turning to his role next year with this information in mind, I’m somewhat bullish on Pierce asserting himself. He has a fair amount of positional flexibility due to his defensive profile. Whether running as an “interior player” alongside Mark Mitchell or as a wing when Mizzou employs a true center, his skills could translate equally. I see his minutes played rate doubling and sitting around 20.4% — a little over eight minutes a night. That result would rank him 10th among the 15 scholarship-level players. Assuming his usage stays in that 20% range, seeing him average 2-4 points a night would be reasonable.


PPP: Points Per Possession
Min %: This is simply the percentage of minutes played by a given player.
Usage %: A measure of personal possessions used while player is on the court. This includes making a shot, missing a shot coupled with a defensive rebound and a turnover.
eFG%: Same as traditional FG% with the added bonus of 3-point shots given 50% more weight to account for additional point.
OR%: The percentage of possible offensive rebounds a player gets.
DR%: The percentage of possible defensive rebounds a player gets.
AST%: Assists divided by field goals made by player’s teammates while on the court.
TO%: The percentage of personal possessions a player uses on turnovers.
FTR%: A rate which measures a player’s ability to get to the free throw line.
FT%: Free Throw shooting percentage.
2PT%: 2-point field goal percentage.
3PT% 3-point field goal percentage.

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Missouri vs UMass football GameDay: info, where to watch, predictions

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 09 North Texas at Missouri
Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Tigers travel to Amherst to take on UMass.

Nothing against Amherst, or the University of Massachusetts, but I can think of many opponents I’d rather watch Missouri play than this one. On the road as a 28 point favorite, coming off a game where you looked like ass on national TV, there’s really no winning this game.

And I say this again as no disrespect intended to UMass. The way the Tigers have scheduled traditionally is with one FCS opponent, one ‘Power Five’ opponent, and two ‘Group of Five’ opponents. The Tigers don’t travel against non Power Five opponents often, but when they do it can be rocky.

There’s 2019 at Wyoming, 2015 at Arkansas State, 2012 at UCF. All three games were difficult games.

2017 at UConn went fine. 2014 Toledo went fine… if you go back further you get into Pinkel build territory. But the point stands, performances in these kinds of games can be iffy. And I get it when you’re favored by that much and you’re travelling it can be hard to get for a game like this. Especially in a weird place like Amherst, which is hardly a hotbed for College Football. UMass has only been back to playing D1 football since 2012, Mizzou has been in the SEC nearly that long.

Here’s UMass against Power 5 schools over the last few years:

  • 2023 at Auburn — L, 59-14
  • 2023 at Penn State — L, 63-0
  • 2022 at Texas A&M — L, 20-3
  • 2021 at Pitt — L, 51-7
  • 2021 vs Boston College — L, 45-28
  • 2021 at Florida State — L, 59-3

They lost 34-3 at Buffalo this year, a team the Tigers already beat 38-0. Anything short of a shellacking is going to feel a bit like a loss, and we’ve experienced that too often this season.

Either way it’s on TV, and I plan on watching. Again, I’m sure Amherst is lovely. This is nothing against the good people of Massachusetts or the city of Amherst.

Missouri-UMass football: Time, Location

TIME: 11:00 a.m. CT

DATE: Saturday, October 12, 2024

LOCATION: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium; Amherst, MA

Missouri-UMass football: Follow the game, TV Channel

TELEVISION: ESPN2

STREAM: WatchESPN

TWITTER: @MizzouFootball

FACEBOOK: MizzouFootballShowMe

ESPN+: ROCKMNATION

FORUMS: Rockm.Plus/Forums

Missouri-UMass football: Betting odds, predictions

As of Friday evening, Missouri is a 27.5-point favorite over UMass, according to FanDuel. The total points (over/under) is 54.5.

RockMNation has affiliate partnerships. These do not influence editorial content, though RockMNation may earn commissions for products purchased via affiliate links. Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See FanDuel Sportsbook for details.

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Mizzou Football’s best moments against Independents

NCAA Football: USA TODAY Sports-Archive
Malcolm Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

This was arguably the longest, windiest road down memory lane of the series.

The morning before each Mizzou football game in 2024, Rock M’s Quentin Corpuel will look back at MU’s best moments versus that week’s opponent. This week: Independents, since UMass and Mizzou have never played each other.

Opponent: UMass Minutemen

Gametime: Saturday, Oct. 19 at 11 a.m.

Location: McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Amherst, MA

Record versus Independents: It’s complicated

For the third time in the last four seasons, Mizzou will play an FBS team that they’ve never played before.

This time, the Tigers will head to the northeast for a battle with UMass in Amherst for just their second trip to Massachusetts in program history. They’ll hope it goes a little better than their other trip to the Bay State, which was a 41-34 overtime defeat at the hands of Boston College.

Along with Notre Dame and UConn, the Minutemen are not affiliated with a conference (although that will change next season when they rejoin the Mid-American Conference, which they called home from 2012-15). Historically, becoming independent is a good thing. Oftentimes, countries have made holidays out of themselves becoming independent. But in collegiate athletics, being independent has never been ideal.

Now, here’s why dissecting Mizzou’s history against Independents is tricky. Conferences in college football weren’t very prevalent until well after World War I. Up until the late 1920’s, a large majority of FBS Division I schools were Independents, from Ole Miss to Gonzaga to Yale. Essentially, MU’s early years of football saw most of its opponents reside as an independent school or at a non-Division I level.

But then, as more schools were elevated to Division I in the early 1930’s, most resided with the Independents, ballooning those numbers back up. Even with the growth of the Southern and Southeastern conferences throughout the mid-20th century, most schools were still Independents.

That trend continued until the late 1970’s, when a lot of schools either joined a conference (Houston went to the Southwest Conference in 1976, for example), dropped down to a lower division (Dayton, Holy Cross) or disbanded its football team altogether (Villanova, but they were brought back just three years after their presumed death in 1981). In 1974, there were 37 Independents; by 1984, there were just 21, the fewest since 1890, when there were only 18 schools in the entirety of Division I.

That number would jump back up into the mid-20’s and stay there until the early 1990’s. The genesis of the Big East, the expansion of mid-major conferences and major conferences adding schools like Florida State (ACC), Penn State (Big Ten) and South Carolina (SEC) shrunk the number of Independents to single digits by 1997. Since then, there haven’t been more than 10 Independents at one time.

So what does that history lesson mean in the context of this series? Essentially, most college football teams have been independent at some point in time. Mizzou has technically played a ton of games against Independents throughout its history, but that group has included schools like Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia, schools that were only independent for a fraction of their FBS I-A lives.

With all of that in mind, two caveats will be established to see which games actually qualify to be potentially used here.

One is that Mizzou’s opponent has to have been independent at some point after 1990, which is around the start of the massive decrease in Independents. Again, most college football teams have been unaffiliated at some point in time; this eliminates the possibility of including a game like Mizzou’s 5-4 win over Texas in 1907. Was I going to include that anyways? Probably not. But I hope this clarified which games were up for dissection.

Honorable mention: Pillaging in Pennsylvania (10/1/1960)

Like most successful Mizzou football seasons, the 1960 team didn’t enter the year with national notoriety…but it didn’t take the Tigers long to gain some.

After dismantling SMU and Oklahoma State to start the season, MU traveled to Happy Valley for a contest with Penn State. The Nittany Lions were coming off of just their second nine-win season in program history and figured to make national noise once again.

Unfortunately for them, their train of momentum was stopped temporarily, as Mizzou claimed a 21-8 victory. Two-way superstar Danny LaRose made a major impact on both sides of the ball, catching touchdown pass while intercepting another later in the game. Norris Stevenson sealed the deal with a late touchdown, and the Tigers had officially skyrocketed to national prominence.

#5: Sweet tangerines (12/19/1981)

Before the bowl game that’s played in Orlando encompassed all citrus fruits, the tangerine was the spotlight from 1946-82 in the “Tangerine Bowl”. Mizzou has competed in the game twice: the Tigers defeated Minnesota in 2014, and they also knocked off a high-quality Southern Mississippi squad in 1981.

The Golden Eagles were far from the mediocre Conference USA/Sun Belt team that they have been over the past few seasons. Decades prior, USM had the best scoring defense in the country, and that wasn’t a product of an easy schedule. Southern Mississippi tied Alabama at Legion Field (which seldom happened under Bear Bryant), defeated ranked Mississippi State in Jackson, MS and smacked Florida State in Tallahassee. Their quarterback, Reggie Collier, became the first quarterback in FBS history to throw and rush for 1,000 yards in a single season.

It wasn’t easy, but Mizzou emerged victorious 19-17. Legendary linebacker Jeff Gaylord shined in his final collegiate game, as he played a huge part in limiting Collier, who went 5/17 and accounted for just 70 total yards. Bob Lucchesi kicked four field goals for the Tigers, and Mizzou had officially won eight games in three of its last four seasons, the first time the Tigers had accomplished that feat since 1939-42.

#4: Rising up (11/14/2015)

As if the 2015 season couldn’t test the will of Mizzou any further, the week leading up to MU’s contest against BYU in Kansas City proved to be especially tumultuous.

For months, Mizzou students had called for the removal of UM System President Tim Wolfe after numerous racist incidents on campus occurred throughout the first semester. Boycotts and protests gripped the university, and tensions reached a boiling point in early November. Graduate student Jonathan Butler announced on Nov. 2 that he would go on a hunger strike until he passed away or Wolfe was removed; five days later, the black players on MU football announced that they wouldn’t play until Wolfe was removed. Wolfe eventually resigned on Nov. 9, ending one of the darkest periods in the university’s history.

Then, the day before Mizzou football was set to take on the Cougars in Arrowhead Stadium, another bombshell rocked the university. Gary Pinkel had told his team that the 2015 season would be his last. He’d been diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma in May, and a PET scan during Mizzou’s bye week proved to be the deciding factor.

But similarly to so many instances throughout its history, the Tigers overcame the odds and rallied. An offense that had scored a combined 25 points over its previous four games looked…functional! MU’s 434 yards of offense ended up being the most it registered in any game that season, and a stout Tiger defense held a quality BYU offense to one of its worst performances of the season. The win was capped off by a late MU drive that featured a pair of huge third-down conversions; a 22-yard run by Russell Hansbrough and a 16-yard completion from Drew Lock to Sean Culkin. The latter chunk gain allowed Mizzou to kneel out the clock and make a grim season a little less grim.

“He was able to keep this team together during that turmoil back in Columbia,” CBS play-by-play commentator Brent Musberger said as the Tigers began to celebrate. “And even when he announced he was stepping away, they came out and played as a team despite the uncertainty of what’s going to happen next year, especially for the young players. Hats off tonight to Gary Pinkel and these Missouri Tigers.”

#3: How in the world did they just beat Notre Dame? (10/2/1972)

Mizzou football in the 1970’s can be defined by the following made-up conversation between them and a personified version of circumstances:

Circumstances: Certain results should not happen, and there are many logical reasons why

Mizzou: Check this out lol

Entering the contest, Notre Dame was rolling. The Irish had defeated their first four opponents by a combined 100 points, including two road shutouts at Northwestern and Michigan State. They were potent on both sides of the ball, with the charge being led by a handful of future pros.

Meanwhile, Mizzou was 2-3, had been walloped 62-0 by Nebraska the week prior and were without their top three running backs. In a wishbone offense, where running backs are an essential component to not just success, but mere operation, playing without your top three running backs is extra killer. Also, Notre Dame had arguably the best defensive line in the country.

On the other side of the ball, the Tigers were discombobulated defensively. Even if the Nebraska game is removed from the sample, Mizzou had allowed 23.25 points per game against its first four opponents. For context, 1972 Navy allowed 23.4 points per game over the entire season and finished 90th out of 127 FBS teams in that category. Last season, Fresno State and Oklahoma allowed 23.5 points per game and finished tied for 48th out of 133 FBS teams in that category. Three touchdowns and change was a lot back then!

The South Bend night was frigid and foggy. Notre Dame was favored by 35 points.

Mizzou scored 30 points.

They also won.

Even the finest movie directors would have a difficult time replicating this Quarterback John Cherry was brilliant. Mizzou’s battered and beaten up offense sailed smoothly, totaling 223 yards on the ground and 106 in the air. The Tigers forced three Irish turnovers while not giving up the ball themselves.

#2: How in the world did they just beat Notre Dame (Part 2)? (9/9/1978)

https://www.rockmnation.com/pages/september-9-1978-mizzou-3-notre

Remember that hypothetical conversation between Circumstances and Mizzou football from earlier? Six years after the Tigers shocked the Irish in South Bend, the same conversation proved to be true once again.

Entering the 1978 season, the Irish were the defending national champions and were ranked fifth in the preseason AP poll. Their star quarterback was back to lead an offense that returned almost every major contributor from the year before; his name was Joe Montana. Notre Dame was almost a 20-point favorite at home facing a Mizzou squad playing its first game under new head coach Warren Powers. It was also around 100 degrees in South Bend.

The actual game itself saw Notre Dame in far more advantageous scoring positions than Mizzou. With some help from MU punter Monte Montgomery, who struggled for most of the afternoon, the Irish were living in Tiger territory all game long. On the other side, Mizzou’s offense mustered up just three points, which didn’t come until 12:50 left in regulation.

All signs pointed to a Notre Dame victory…but the signs proved to be wrong. There was no Irish win at the end of the arrows. The three points were all that the Tigers ended up needing, as they walked out of northern Indiana as Goliath slayers once again.

This might be the single most Herculean defensive performance in Mizzou history. Notre Dame created nine decent scoring opportunities (including five trips inside of the MU 25-yard line) and came away with zero points. It seemed as if the Tiger defense strengthened as the Irish inched closer to paydirt; Mizzou would either intercept Montana, recover a fumble or stop Notre Dame on fourth down. Montana was held to just four completions in 17 attempts and threw two interceptions in the first half alone. It was the first time ND had been shut out since 1965 and marked Montana’s worst collegiate game to date.

In the same year that Mizzou would shatter Nebraska’s national title hopes in November, the Tigers got the upset party started in September. The improbable victory added to MU’s treasure trove of upset victories throughout the 1970’s, which was almost lengthened the next week when Mizzou gave top-ranked Alabama a scare in Columbia.

#1: The first bowl win in Mizzou history (1/2/1961)

Playing in a major bowl game is a tremendous honor. It’s a celebration of a spectacular season in a (usually) glamorous venue.

But heading into the 1961 Orange Bowl against Navy, Mizzou had been freshly stung. A national championship had evaporated at the hands of unranked Kansas the week prior. The pain only worsened when KU star fullback Bert Coan, who played a major role in derailing MU’s national championship hopes, was deemed ineligible by the NCAA after months of investigation. Instead, it would be 8-1 Minnesota, who’d lost to eventual 4-4-1 Purdue just two weeks before, claiming the 1960 national title.

This all led the Tigers to Miami, where Dan Devine’s crew would face Navy, who were captained by Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Joe Bellino. In a battle of elite ground attacks under the watch of the newly-elected president John F. Kennedy, Mizzou outdueled Navy on the back of Mel West (108 of MU’s 223 rushing yards) and a phenomenal defensive effort. Bellino was held to just four rushing yards, and the Tigers came away with three interceptions, which included a 90-yard pick-six by Norm Beal in the first quarter.

The victory marked Mizzou’s first bowl win in program history; the Tigers had lost their previous six, which included the previous year’s Orange Bowl against Georgia.

This wasn’t what MU wanted. The incomparably sweet nectar of a national championship, a first-time visit to the summit of college football, was within arm’s length…only for their arch-nemesis to deny them at the gates of glory. But if there were any consolation, taking down the mighty Midshipmen in front of the future President is a pretty good one.

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