Mizzou’s sophomore guard will look to lead a defensive renaissance for the Tigers in 2024-2025.

Over the weeks leading up to the season, this series will dive deep into the players we see making a push for time in the rotation for the 2024-2025 Missouri basketball squad. The pieces read like a birds-eye scouting report. They skew more toward the offensive end of the court for two reasons. First, a player’s offensive metrics are more reliable than defensive data and less team-dependent. Second, it’s considerably easier to describe a player’s qualities with more well-known offensive statistics. As always, we encourage interaction from our readers. Please drop us a comment or find me on Twitter @DataMizzou.

The film credits are given to Matt Harris. Matt has provided all of the film used in this series, and plenty more video and analysis on every player that can be found on https://rockm.plus.

The Player

I don’t blame you if you didn’t fully appreciate Anthony Robinson’s performance in his first season at Mizzou.

Suffering through the team’s miserable conference season was brutal. Sifting through the film and performance data of the freshman’s campaign took even more work. It’s a big ask of anyone. Yet we’re here to tell you that there’s a genuine reason for excitement for the dynamic guard’s sophomore campaign.

Robinson was overshadowed in Dennis Gates’ first true high school recruiting class. The 2023 haul was rated 36th nationally, and Robinson received the lowest grade of Mizzou’s three-man group. Yet the staff’s interest and longstanding connections with the talent out of Tallahassee were undeniable. Coach Dennis Gates and associate head coach Charlton Young gave little notion to the belief that Anthony “Ant” was a ‘tweener prospect. They saw something they liked. And after a full season’s worth of effort, we see it, too.

That doesn’t mean his first year went smoothly.

No, Robinson missed several games during the SEC slate with a death in the family. Eleven players on the roster received starts, and Ant wasn’t one of them. His overall numbers, as we’ll discuss below, lacked superlatives. Yet by year’s end, Robinson had finished sixth on the team in minutes played. His play and attitude on the court often meshed into one indistinguishable characteristic of “don’t back down from anybody.” For a team looking for that exact instinct, Robinson was rewarded. It is the biggest reason why, despite a top-10 high School and transfer recruiting haul, we see Ant as a vital cog in next year’s rotation.

The Numbers

Stats courtesy of Barttorvik.com.

The numbers above may leave most fans wanting more.

Robinson struggled mightily at times with easy tasks on the offensive end. Those are the signs of relying on a freshman and not indicative of his quality as a player overall. Yes, his shooting percentages are pretty rough. His usage rate of 17.9% is solidly that of a role player. Even amongst a group of perimeter players battered by injury, his minutes are modest. Yet I believe Robinson will be Mizzou’s most vital player on the 2024-25 roster that has come to Columbia via the high school ranks.

Starting on the offensive end, Ant had a knack for performing well when asked to do difficult things. For example, Robinson tallied 69 possessions playing on the ball. We’re talking about pick-and-rolls, handoffs, and playing in isolations. Ant averaged 0.971 points per possession in those situations, per Synergy Sports. While Sean East’s possession volume was much more significant, his efficiency (0.960 PPP) was comparable to Ant’s handiwork. Scorers are not hard to come by in the college ranks, but offensive creators are. And there’s good reason to believe Robinson may be just that.

Yet there was a severe downside to his offensive profile as well.

While Robinson excelled doing the more difficult tasks on that end, he struggled converting on the higher percentage chances. The rookie made attempted just 28 shots off the catch and cashed those in for a mere 12 points, many of which were prime opportunities for buckets. Something which must improve going forward.

His difficulties in the open court were particularly perplexing, given his skill set.

A player with a combination of speed and athleticism should have thrived. If bets were taken, we’d be in the camp of believing Robinson will smooth things out in his second year in Columbia. He performed well when pushing the ball up the court but struggled when asked to do much else on the break. His errors were typically magnified in obvious moments of lapses in concentration and requisite urgency.

Even though Ant’s offensive game was inconsistent, his work on the defensive end made his minutes valuable.

This attribute should prove even more vital to a roster seeking to rekindle the chaotic defense Gates’ team employed in his first year at the helm. Coupled with a dynamic defensive point guard transfer in Tony Perkins, Mizzou may be well positioned to have something it hasn’t had in years: a formidable duo manning the perimeter shell and point of attack.

We know one thing for certain about Ant: He doesn’t back down no matter who he is facing. His constant harassment of ballhandlers is precisely what Mizzou seeks in its pressure scheme.

Ant shines not just in causing turnovers. His persistence and skill in defending the ball anywhere on the court are a sight to behold. It likely doesn’t come through when watching on television, but Robinson not only defends well in space, but he also lets his opponent know his intentions through word of mouth.

If there’s an area he’ll seek to improve, it may well involve closing out on shooters. This skill is often honed with time and experience, something Mizzou’s injured rotation offered little leeway for a year ago.

The Role

Despite having 15 players vying for time this coming year, the guard depth is comparatively minimal. Tony Perkins will assuredly see the lion’s share of minutes at the lead guard position. Marques Warrick and his 2,000-plus points at Northern Kentucky will also play a role. Freshman T.O. Barrett will have his chance to force himself into the conversation. After that? Mizzou has no players who project as point guards or combo guards as their optimal position beyond Robinson.

We believe that Ant’s combination of quality in creating offense on the ball and his vital attributes on the defensive end will have him solidly in the rotation. My initial projections have Robinson slotted 7th in the team in playing time at 36.7% of minutes played — a little over 15 minutes per night with potential for more. While this may seem low, considering it’s just a 6% increase, Mizzou hopes to have a much deeper group of options on a nightly basis. I also projected his usage rate to rise from 20 percent to 18 percent. Mizzou has certainly added quality options, but it still has a lot of possessions to fill on the ball with Sean East’s departure. Should Robinson hit those numbers and see a reasonable improvement in cashing in prime opportunities, it’s not hard to see his points per game settling in at 5-7 per contest. If those things were to happen, Mizzou’s “don’t back down” talent from Tallahassee will quickly become a fan favorite.

PPP: Points Per Possession

Min %: This is simply the percentage of minutes played by a given player.

Usage %: A measure of personal possessions used while player is on the court. This includes making a shot, missing a shot coupled with a defensive rebound and a turnover.

eFG%: Same as traditional FG% with the added bonus of 3-point shots given 50% more weight to account for additional point.

OR%: The percentage of possible offensive rebounds a player gets.

DR%: The percentage of possible defensive rebounds a player gets.

AST%: Assists divided by field goals made by player’s teammates while on the court.

TO%: The percentage of personal possessions a player uses on turnovers.

FTR%: A rate which measures a player’s ability to get to the free throw line.

FT%: Free Throw shooting percentage.

2PT%: 2-point field goal percentage.

3PT% 3-point field goal percentage.