Dive into the Heart of Mizzou Athletics

This isn’t even important enough to be a “get right” game. Sigh.

Here is the preview I did in June.

UMass is so bad…

/points mic to crowd

Crowd: “HOW BAD ARE THEY”

…UMass is so bad that Missouri could play the exact way they played against Texas A&M and still win by 10.

UMass is currently 121st in SP+. They’ve lost to teams ranked 110th, 82nd, 114th, 107, and 92nd. They beat Central Connecticut – currently ranked 261st out of all 764 college football teams – by 4 points at home.

Our friends, the Buffalo Bulls, currently rank 128th are sitting at 3-2, with an upset victory over a ranked Northern Illinois squad. So, not only is UMass bad, but they can’t even find victories at the same level as a team that is extremely close in quality.

Yes, this game is on the road which means Eli Drinkwitz is not allowed to win it. But this might be an exception to that rule.

When Missouri Has the Ball

There are quite a few former-FBS transfers littered on this roster so, in theory, the talent is there. But they are still mostly not good. The 108th overall ranking means its the best unit of the UMass program, and their 22nd ranking in pass defense is, obviously, Top 25 good. But having the best pass defense on the planet doesn’t mean jack squat if teams don’t pass on you…which is the case. Teams are running at an unprecedented rate against UMass, whether it’s standard downs (66.5% of the plays are runs) or passing downs (40.4% of the plays are runs), some of the highest run rates in the country! Which makes sense, since the Minutemen defense ranks 88th against the run, 104th in runs that go at least four yards, 118th in stopping runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, while giving up at least 9 yards per successful rush. The keys to this game are simple:

Run The Dang Ball

Missouri running back Nate Noel (8) evades Texas A&M defensive back Dalton Brooks (25) for a gain in the first quarter of a game on Saturday, October 5, 2024, at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

Please! It’s what Mizzou is best at! It provides the best opportunity for explosive plays, features two guys who are equally skilled (in different ways), and doesn’t rely on Brady Cook crawling out of his own head to make the correct read and an accurate throw. Plus UMass is bad at defending the run. Shoot for a 50% success rate on the ground.

Connect on a Pass That Travels More than 20 Yards Through the Air

Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III (3) celebrates a reception for a gain in the first quarter of a game against Texas A&M on Saturday, October 5, 2024, at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

Just to prove that you can still do that.

Finish Your Dang Drives

Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III (3) celebrates scoring a touchdown which was later called back in the first quarter of a game against Texas A&M on Saturday, October 5, 2024, at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

UMass is allowing 4.14 points per scoring opportunity, which currently ranks 72nd. Please, Mizzou, in the name of everything sacred about this sport and this institution of higher learning, please create at least 8 scoring opportunities and finish with more than 5 points per opportunity. Just to show that you still care about looking cool and good while playing football.

When Massachusetts Has the Ball

UMass has almost a 100% transfer-filled starting lineup. And, no, they’re not good. 115th in offense, in fact! They’re not efficient, they’re not explosive, they have one of the worst 3-and-out rates in the country, the third-worst starting field position in the country, and only average 3.29 points per scoring opportunity.

But they are +1 in turnover margin! So they do have something!

Let them be bad

Missouri defensive tackle Kristian Williams (5) and Missouri wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. (1) walk out on the field before a game against Texas A&M on Saturday, October 5, 2024, at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas.(CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

I really can’t find anything here to be concerned about. Yeah, they’re in the middle of the pack in connecting on deep passes but how much does that matter when you can’t effective run, block, stay out of obvious passing situations, or maintain a passing completion percentage over 58%? If the Missouri defense just plays straight man defense they should be able to hold UMass to 14, let alone of they show any semblance of creativity.

I will guarantee that UMass will score but if the talent gap means anything then that should be it. This should be a game where younger defenders can get in there and show the coaching staff some live action quality.

Conclusion

Don’t lose this one. We have to blow up the program and sell it for parts if this ends up being a loss.