Dive into the Heart of Mizzou Athletics

The All-American hasn’t produced at the level of other star receivers this season, but coaches, teammates and NFL Draft scouts still view the mystifying junior as one of the top players in the nation.

Homecoming, whether at the University of Missouri or another American institution, is supposed to be a reminder of why alma maters loved the school they attended.

As the annual tradition beckons at Mizzou (where it was probably NOT invented, despite popular opinion in Columbia), one of those reasons to love the school is a superstar that’s shined on the gridiron since he stepped on campus in 2022: Luther Burden III.

The junior has continued to electrify in 2024, which included a huge outing against UMass last Saturday. Burden recorded 127 total yards on just seven touches, including a 61-yard touchdown run on the second play from scrimmage.

During his time at MU, Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz has consistently preached the value of starting fast, and his team did just that in Amherst with Burden’s house call less than a minute into the game.

“I thought he set the tone,” Drinkwitz said. “I don’t think we blocked anybody on that play, but for him to say, ‘I’m going to set the tone as a guy that everybody looks up to’ … I’m proud of those guys.”

Running back Marcus Carroll also had a prolific outing — becoming the first Tiger with a hat trick of touchdowns in a single game this season. However, he couldn’t help but be in awe of his fellow Minutemen-destroyer after the game.

“Before I could even blink, this man is already down the field,” Carroll said. “Luther Burden is him. He was gone before I even knew it.”

But halfway through the 2024 season, the vibe around Burden on a national level doesn’t feel anywhere close to what it was throughout this past offseason.

Burden’s Heisman Trophy campaign, albeit a dark horse one before the season, has dipped significantly. His preseason Heisman odds resided around +5000; now, they’re around +25000. Burden also didn’t make ESPN’s top-25 college football players at midseason after being ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s preseason Top 100.

Mizzou’s struggles over the air comparatively to last season have certainly played a part, and Burden’s surface-level statistics have been less-than-outrageous. His current 12-game pace is 62 catches, 796 yards and eight touchdowns.

There are two perspectives one could have about this in regards to his NFL future. One is more pessimistic, fueled by a history unfavorable to receivers that lack major production in college.

For example, Burden’s average ranking on nflmockdraftdatabase.com, a conglomerate of NFL Draft big boards and mock drafts, is No. 13 overall. Since 1990, 63 wide receivers have been selected in the top 15 of the NFL Draft. Here’s the list of players from that group who’ve registered worse and/or equal to Burden’s projected counting stats that’ve played at least 12 games:

What also might be causing Burden’s slight dip in national notoriety is everything that’s happened elsewhere in college football, especially at the wide receiver position.

Alabama’s Ryan Williams and Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith have been freshman sensations, prompting Matt Miller, one of ESPN’s lead NFL Draft scouts, to already proclaim the 2027 wide receiver class to be the best ever. Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, who sits third in the nation in receiving yards, seems to be the consensus WR1 in the 2024 class. A lethal combination of size and athleticism has drawn comparisons to Randy Moss and Mike Evans; the Hawaii native’s abilities were succinctly summed up by The Athletic’s Nick Baumgardner: There’s not a lot McMillan can’t do.

Elsewhere, Ole Miss’ Tre Harris leads the country in receiving yards, and Colorado’s Travis Hunter is in a class of his own as a two-way megastar on one of college football’s most talked about teams. Add in other non-wide receiver sensations like Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, whose play style resembles an actual bronco, and a handful of quarterbacks who seem to amaze every week, and Burden’s star has been lost in a a galaxy of wonder that’s been the 2024 college football season.

Then, there’s the optimistic and arguably more sensible point of view. Miller, who’s worked in scouting for almost two decades, understands that the early-season firestorm within college football can distort the perception of certain prospects.

“There are times where we can overrate, especially on a week-to-week basis, what a player does or doesn’t do,” Miller said. “It’s so easy to get caught up in the excitement of a Travis Hunter or the Week 1 stats of Tet McMillan (10 catches, 304 yards, four touchdowns).

“We live and die weekly in the college football season.”

Through Mizzou’s first six games, Burden has missed six quarters due to of injury and/or Mizzou holding a monster late-game lead. He’s been on the field for fewer snaps per game (42.8) than last season, (54.9) per Pro Football Focus; that included Saturday, when Burden exited the game early in the third quarter when he landed awkwardly on his right shoulder after a huge hit. Plus, he had a 75-yard touchdown wiped away because of a penalty against Texas A&M.

Perhaps it’d be a different story if Burden played every snap of every game in 2024, but the fact of the matter is that he’s remained elite, even with involuntarily less playing time.

“He does whatever we need him to do in order to win a football game,” Drinkwitz said. “He’s contributed in every game significantly.”

From a professional standpoint, NFL teams are primarily focused on projection as opposed to production. It’s why Anthony Richardson was taken at No. 4 overall by the Indianapolis Colts in the 2023 NFL Draft; despite just one full season as the starting quarterback at Florida, his possession of a nuclear arm, behemoth physique and avalanche-level rushing ability outweighed the lack of experience.

Even with a dip in counting stats, Burden’s hype train towards the next level appears to remain on-track.

“It’s hard to be too worried about it,” Tyler Brooke, an NFL Analyst for The 33rd Team, said. “There’s clearly stuff that’s just not on the same page with Missouri’s offense, but it’s not like he’s having a truly down year. Scouts aren’t gonna worry too much about it, especially because he has that pedigree. He was a five-star recruit coming out of high school. Clearly, the athleticism is still there.”

That athleticism has especially flashed after the catch, just as it did in his first two seasons. A pair of highlight-reel runs against Boston College are perfect examples, which included Burden’s unique ability to medley acceleration and deceleration to create chunk plays:

“A lot of players can go zero to 60,” Brooke said. “But there’s not as many as you think that can go 60 to zero. Luther Burden definitely possesses that ability.”

This season, Burden has still done most of his work after the catch. 57% of his yards have come after the catch per PFF, a slight dip from 2023 (59.7%) and a massive drop from 2022 (76.1%), but that more representative of Mizzou’s inability to produce on passes with a lot of air yards (Brady Cook’s average depth of target was 8.5 in 2022, 9.6 in 2023 and 9.4 so far in 2024).

“Not only is he athletic, but he’s incredibly technically refined,” Brooke said. “He’s efficient. Really good footwork. He’s elusive after the catch. He has vision after the catch to find openings. He creates explosive plays.”

What’s also remained consistent is that Burden has taken a large majority of his snaps from the slot; his percent of snaps from that alignment have actually increased from 81.7 in 2023 to 86.4 so far this season per PFF. It’s a big reason why Burden skyrocketed last season, and it’s why both Brooke and Miller compared him Detroit Lions star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown who, like Burden, is a bigger slot receiver who can make plays that few others can make.

“There are a lot of dudes in the pros who are having great careers from the slot.” Miller said. “You know, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a fantastic example of that, somebody who can dominate from that role.”

Brooke recently mocked Burden No. 9 overall to the New York Jets. While that prospect might’ve taken a hit with New York’s recent acquisition of a dominant wideout in Davante Adams, Brooke could see Burden fitting seamlessly into the slot between Adams and Garrett Wilson, two top-of-the-line X-receivers.

“I have a top-10 grade on him for a reason,” Brooke said. “I just think he’s one of the special athletes that also clearly works on his craft as a receiver.”

However, arguably no major draft scout has remained as high on Burden as Miller, who currently has Burden No. 2 overall on his big board behind Michigan cornerback Will Johnson. Miller has been publicly singing his praises since before the 2022 season; Burden was even the top prospect on his board for a long time.

Miller said his introduction to Burden was during a summer practice in August 2022. Amidst a sea of veterans that Miller originally intended to scout, there was one freshman that was difficult to ignore.

“(Drinkwitz) was like ‘and then there’s this kid that’s gonna be a first round pick someday’,” Miller said. “He’s 18 years old, and he looks like the best player.”

This isn’t the first time Miller has been more optimistic than the general public on a Mizzou receiver — he mocked Dorial Green-Beckham to the San Francisco 49ers at No. 15 overall back in 2015, which was higher than most big boards at the time.

But this time around is way different. Even with the last handful of wide receiver classes being loaded with top-end talent that’s panned out in the league, Miller is comfortable putting Burden in that upper echelon.

“He would be right there with (Rome) Odunze and (Malik) Nabers for me last year,” Miller said. “Marvin Harrison Jr. was just a different beast all the way around. But I think (Burden)’s in that mix.”

Mizzou’s offense will look to rebound in the second half of the season, starting on Saturday with Auburn. There’s a solid chance that Burden begins to stuff the stat sheet like he did in 2023, when he registered at least 95 receiving yards in seven of his first eight games.

However, even if he doesn’t, there’s also plenty of film over the past two seasons that proves Burden’s worth as a top NFL Draft prospect, film that dates back to the first game of Burden’s career. Mizzou’s 52-24 win over Louisiana Tech featured two touchdowns and a handful of highlights from the prince who was promised, validating Miller’s early beliefs. This year, Mizzou’s first play of the 2024 season was a jet sweep to Burden that went for a first down, and the drive was capped off with him evading a defender and high-stepping into the end zone for a touchdown.

The stat sheet might not be stuffed, but the belief in Burden has been chock-full for a long time.

“He looked that special back then, and now, he’s a different player,” Miller said.

Across the college football landscape, the golden era of wide receivers will continue to glisten. Somewhere within the glimmers will lie Burden, whose journey, filled with mesmerization and bewilderment of what he can do on a football field, has looked promising from the start.

Even with external factors at play, Burden’s evolution has him in good standing at the next level. In other words, he’s “still” him.

“He’s probably the best in the game right now,” wide receiver Josh Manning said.

Analyzing Mizzou’s upcoming opponent with an analytics-based deep dive into the scouting and matchups that have this game in the balance.

Welcome to the Auburn edition of Between the Numbers, where we preview Mizzou’s game with an analytics deep dive. I’ll look into tendencies, weak spots, strong spots, opportunities — areas the Tigers can exploit and things that they will need to step up. I will use advanced metrics such as PFF charting (and occasionally grading, although that system is a broadsword, not a scalpel). There could be a heavy dose of EPA, pulled from sources like Game on Paper and College Football Insiders. And, of course, some good ol’ fashioned SP+, as well.

This article will be less a big-picture list of goals that the Tigers need to do well, like in Nate Edwards’ indispensable weekly preview. It will be more of a spotlight on key matchups for this week’s opponent.

We are lucky to have a highly analytics literate readership here at Rock M Nation. If you want to discuss any of this content further, push back on some of my conclusions, or ask questions about the numbers, please post in the comments, on RockM+, or reach out on Twitter. Let’s get to it.

The second half of Mizzou’s season begins this week, as they take on the Auburn Tigers in their seventh game of the season. Actually, with two bye weeks, this schedule is more of a trimester situation – and this game is a chance to make sure the second trimester is not a total disaster.

A loss puts Mizzou at 1-2 in league play with a pending trip to Alabama before the second bye. A grumbling fan base would be full-on howling at that point. Luckily, the Tigers get a team that is eminently beatable. A win over Auburn would be their first in the fourth try as SEC compadres.

Auburn comes into the game at 2-4, on a three-game losing streak in league play, although their slump was just broken up with their own bye week. We will see how the team prepared with their time off, but the story of Auburn’s season has been as much about their intangibles as it has been their tangible on-field results.

Head coach Hugh Freeze spends any chance he gets in front of a lectern sniping at his quarterbacks, his team, their execution, and the overall state of his roster. While this column is ostensibly about numbers and cold hard statistical evidence, there’s also a chance this Auburn team is going to play a big ol’ game of feelingsball.

If they do rally and play their best, Auburn is a team with an inefficient offense down-to-down but with an explosive passing element. Sound familiar? That recipe was favored by both Boston College and Vanderbilt. Veteran Payton Thorne pilots this inconsistent attack – and draws the brunt of Freeze’s public ire – and has resumed full-time quarterback duties after an early interception binge earned him a spot on the bench.

Thorne’s completion percentage is only 59.2%, and his Average Depth of Target is 12.9 yards. He lets it fly, and has tossed six picks on the season. Heating Thorne up is key; his completion percentage drops to 42% when pressured, which has been on 32.5% of his dropbacks. The key is getting pressure while keeping defenders in the pattern: all six of his interceptions have been on plays where he was not blitzed.

Defensive coordinator Corey Batoon will have to fiddle with the knobs when it comes to getting quarterback pressures. Joe Moore, who has been backing up Johnny Walker, Jr at “joker” and Khalil Jacobs, Triston Newson’s understudy at outside linebacker, are both out for the season. Missouri has been playing a very deep rotation on the defensive side of the ball, but will likely increase the workload for the “1s” in this situation.

Both starters have proven they can handle the larger workload. Last season, Johnny Walker Jr averaged 48 snaps per game, which is down to 35 this season. Joe Moore’s 12 snaps per game will fit tidily into JWJ’s workload, with the occasional cup of coffee for Jakhai Lang or Williams Nwaneri.

The same will apply for the linebackers. Newson averaged 55 snaps per game once he took over the starting role; he has enjoyed a downright leisurely 29 per game this year, and theoretically could take on Jacobs’ 23 snaps per game. However, Newson is working back from his own injury this week, and so Jacobs’ work could go to true freshman Nicholas Rodriguez, who was all over the field in UMass last week in his first action since Murray State.

Getting pressure on Thorne with just four rushers will be paramount to the gameplan; with two key reserves now out for the season, I expect the TIgers to lean on their battle-tested veterans to make life miserable for the Auburn passing attack.

When Missouri has the ball, they will face an Auburn defense that has been generous against the pass. Even Michael Hawkins, Oklahoma’s occasionally overwhelmed true freshman quarterback, had his best day as a passer against DJ Durkin’s defense. The Tigers are tough up front, but rank in the 29th percentile for preventing explosive pass plays. Of course, as we know, this is a battle of a stoppable force meeting a moveable object. The biggest weak spot of Mizzou’s offense is the explosive pass, checking in at the 24th percentile.

Our Tigers could take advantage and create some big plays. But they will also have a good shot to win the game by good ol’ fashioned ball control, something they have excelled at all year. Auburn’s inefficient and boom-or-bust nature – on both sides of the ball – can be exploited by a team ready to win on a down-to-down basis. And that is what Mizzou can do against Auburn, and control the game.

Parker Fleming of CFB Insiders has devised a metric called ECKEL, a measure of a team’s quality drives. By comparing how often a team can create ECKELs on offense and allow them on defense, you get a sense of their ability to control the game. Mizzou is 10th in the country in ECKEL ratio, and Auburn is 87th. Mizzou will have another huge weapon in the ball control game. Their average starting field position is 20th; Auburn’s, 102nd.

As Missouri strides headlong into another conference game, the Tigers will circle the wagons. There might be more opportunities in this matchup to see the things that thrill the fanbase: exciting new youngsters on defense, and explosive passing on offense. That would be nice! But as the season progresses, the Tigers will be more likely to rely on their veterans and their strengths as a ball-control team.