Week 12 Analytics MVPs: Luther Burden is back, and an edge rusher dominates

Nov 21, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Luther Burden trying to catch a pass
(CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

Luther Burden showed that despite his struggles this season, he can still dominate the stat sheet at will.

The No. 23 Missouri Tigers lost in heartbreaking fashion to the No. 17 South Carolina Gamecocks, in a game which saw the Tigers playoff and SEC Championship hopes dashed all in one night. Mizzou for what feels like the ninth time this season, put up a lackluster offensive performance in the first half and then turned it on in the second half.

Despite the unsuccessful first half, the Tigers put up some of their best overall analytical numbers on offense of the season. They were in the 83rd percentile of EPA/play and in the 96th percentile of success rate. However, the defense turned in one of its worst performances of the season, as LaNorris Sellers powered the Gamecocks that saw them rank in the 96th percentile of EPA/dropback and 93rd percentile of Explosive Play Rate.

The analytics of the game overall are a pretty good indicator of the MVPs this week, as the Tigers flashy offense allowed for a flashy MVP on that side of the ball, Let’s take a look:

Luther Burden | Wideout

Burden has not been picking these up as frequently as he was last year, but he looked like vintage Luther being a target machine on Saturday. Of his eight targets, Luther hauled in all eight of them including two contested targets as he was also the only Missouri wideout to catch a touchdown in the game.


Burden ranked in the 100th percentile of catch rate and contested catch rate in the country this week, posting his best VAT numbers of the season. This is a Luther Burden analytical line that people were way more accustomed to seeing, but unfortunately it was just not enough for Mizzou. However, if you had told me this was the kind of performance he was putting up, I would have said you were crazy to think the Tigers were losing that game.

The play we are going to look at is obviously none other than Burden’s vintage one handed contested grab on fourth down late in the game. While this play was annulled by some heroics from Sellers and Rocket Sanders, this is still a phenomenal play that deserves its flowers. The placement of this ball by Brady Cook is great, but what a play from Luther to be able to snag that ball and somehow get the yards after catch to get the touchdown. If the Tigers had won this game, I think we would be seeing this catch a lot more this week.

Luther Burden will be revered as one of the best players to put on a Tiger uniform, and Saturday was a great indicator why. Throughout his time as a Tiger, he showed elite contested catch ability, elite yards after catch, and just a knack for being a reliable receiver that gets in the end zone above all. I advise Tigers fans to just enjoy his final games here, because he truly is a special player on all facets.

Johnny Walker Jr. | Edge Rusher

Picking a defensive analytics MVP was not easy, as the Tigers had no starting players with above a 70 defensive grade, the first time that situation has occurred this season aside from the Texas A&M game. This may come as a surprise considering that Walker had a huge missed tackle this game that enabled the Gamecocks to pull off a touchdown drive right before the Tigers retook the lead. However, Walker led the team by far with eight pressures, and while they didn’t turn in to sacks because of Sellers, he still made an impact.


Walker was in the 95th percentile of HHS this week, and actually picked up a forced fumble as well while leading the team in stops. His missed tackle is replayed across the country but, he truly did put out a great game he just didn’t get the results. Edge rusher is a pretty unforgiving position because if you can’t bring the quarterback down, nobody cares. LaNorris Sellers, makes sure that a lot of edge rushers go under the radar with his ability to create plays.

The play we will be looking at is actually the highlight reel play from Sellers, because of exactly what it is. This is just a phenomenal play by Sellers, but it doesn’t discredit the amazing pass rush of Walker here. He blows by his guy and everything here is perfect, except the tackle. It’s just a great play made by the opposition, and you have to tip your cap.

Walker had a good game on Saturday that was hampered by some highlight reels, but realistically the business is all about actually finishing the job. While he hurried Sellers a bunch, it did seem as if Sellers thrived in that situation. He dealt 21 of his 25 targets for 353 yards and five touchdowns, marking it the best QB performance Mizzou has had to play against all season without a doubt.

Johnny Walker Jr. was touted as a leader for this death row defense, and while he wasn’t putting up numbers earlier in the year he is now. He’s been such a good player since the Alabama game, and the numbers are really showing it. He’s another player that Tigers fans should cherish, just for his one track mind of getting to the quarterback.

Legend

Wideouts

Depth: Average Depth of Target, used to show if a wideout is typically a short passing threat, a deep threat, or one that spreads the field.

Evasive: Missed Tackle Rate, how often can a wideout break tackles in space.

Catching: A wideout’s catch rate on catchable balls thrown in his direction.

Contested: A wideout’s contested catch rate in 1-on-1 situations.

Drops: How often a wideout drops the ball.

Man: A wideout’s catch rate in Man Coverage Situations.

Zone: A wideout’s catch rate in Zone Coverage Situations.

QBR: A QB’s NFL QBR when a wideout is targeted.

YAC: Yards After Catch.

YPR: Yards Per Reception.

Edge Rushers

Pass Rush: Pass Rush Score, comprised of various pass rushing stats and factors

Run Defense: Run Defense Score, comprised of various run defense stats and factors

Stops: On a first down, if the offense gets 45% of the way to a first down or less.

On a second down, if the offense gets 60% of the way to a first down or less.

On a third or fourth down, if the offense doesn’t get a first down.

HHS: Hits, Hurries, and Sacks generated

Efficiency: Overall Defensive Efficiency

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