Missouri goalkeeper Kate Phillips (1) makes a save against Florida midfielder Madison Jones (10) in the first half of a game on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, at Walton Stadium. | (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation)

This one may decide the season

Mizzou soccer (4-8-2, 2-4-1 SEC) emerged from this past week at 1-1, with an even five goals-for and five goals-against. The positives came in the 5-0 win at home against Ole Miss, marking the largest SEC win since the Tigers joined the conference WAY back in 2012.

But Mizzou ran into a buzz saw in the form of No.4 Mississippi State, falling to the Bulldogs 5-0 in Starkville. The Tigers struggled to gather momentum, as they were outshot 20-3 throughout the match.

Now with three matches left on the calendar, Mizzou sits on the edge of the SEC Tournament. While the Tigers don’t have to win out in order to qualify, there are several matchups where points are needed to stay in contention. Perhaps the most important match down the stretch comes to kick off Homecoming Weekend against Oklahoma.

Here’s a comprehensive look at this past week, a look ahead to the Sooners and a comprehensive guide to the SEC soccer standings.

What went well?

Let’s start with the good. The Tigers looked in control against Ole Miss, playing their most complete game that I’ve seen in my two years covering the team. After taking a 2-0 lead in the first half, Mizzou controlled the second half in full, winning the shot battle 12-6.

This offensive onslaught was led by senior Milena Fischer, scoring her first collegiate hat trick and the first one for Mizzou since 2019. Fischer did this with extreme efficiency, taking only four shots during the game.

The defensive backline served as an iron wall, as all four primary defenders played all 90 minutes: Callaway Combs, Jessica Larson, Morgan Meador and Mia Yang. In net Kate Phillips held onto the shutout for the second time across the SEC slate.

Another interesting note was the limited number of corner kicks between both teams. They combined for only four corner kicks, with three of those in favor of Mizzou. This sort of running play aspect has benefited the Tigers, letting their offense work in space while the defense can shut down any potential chances on the run.

What went wrong?

The game against Mississippi State was less fun. The Bulldogs dominated all aspects, controlling the shot battle 20-3 and shots on goal 8-0.

The home team took control thanks to their ability to stack goals. After opening the scoring in the 20th minute, Mississippi came right back with their second goal less than 90 seconds later.

This was the same issue faced by the Tigers during their 8-2 loss to Arkansas, as things turned ugly thanks to a pair of goals in the final five minutes of the first half.

During this top tier matchups, Mizzou will need to focus on avoiding these sort of goal groupings, limiting the damaging and consistently shifting the momentum.

The Sooner the better

After starting an impressive 7-1 in the non-conference, the Oklahoma soccer team has stumbled in their first season in the SEC. Currently the Sooners hold four points with a 1-5-1 record, sitting at 15th in the conference.

Oklahoma is currently on a three-game losing streak with no goals scored. It sure hasn’t been from a lack of trying, with 27 shots and nine on goal. One player who’s been leading the offensive charge as of late is German-born senior Leonie Weber. Across these last three games Weber has registered five shots, with only one of them coming on goal. If the Tigers hope to keep that Sooner scoreless streak rolling, keeping Weber away from the box will be essential.

Offensively the Tigers will have to watch out for goalie Caroline Duffy. Across these three losses Duffy has done her part, with a combined 19 saves compared to four goals. This included TEN saves in their 1-0 loss to now No. 5 Arkansas. While Mizzou may not be able to blow three or four goals past Duffy, the Tigers must do everything to secure 1-2 goals in this matchup.

Standings

Currently the Tigers have 7 points in SEC play, sitting at No. 12 in the conference standings. With the top 12 teams making the SEC Tournament, right now the Tigers are making it by the skin of their teeth. But with three games left there’s still plenty of room to maneuver—both up and down.

Interest fact: By the end of Friday, Mizzou could finish anywhere from 6th to 15th in the conference depending on the outcome of their game and the other seven from across the southeast. A stat that is both fascinating and terrifying. (editor’s note: I have chills)

Oklahoma is one of the teams who can catch them and could move above the Tigers with a win in Columbia.

Looking at the big picture, it appears that double-digit conference points is necessary to make the tournament. Looking at their last three games this is the best chance on paper for Mizzou to pick up another win and reach that 10-point mark. While I hate to call anything a must-win, this game gets as close as you can possibly get.

Player to Watch: Milena Fischer

In order to pull off this win, the Tigers will need to be persistent on the offensive end. With the status of Kylee Simmons in doubt, the offensive will need to come from a variety of spots.

There’s no one hotter in the Mizzou front line than Milena Fischer. While she continues to have a senior season to remember, there’d be no bigger game to extend her team lead in goals.

Fischer and the rest of the Tigers reignite their rivalry with the Sooners at 7 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 18 to help kick off HoCo weekend.