Missouri men’s basketball head coach Dennis Gates, left, and assistant C.Y. Young, right, during the first half of a women’s game against Truman State on Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024, at Mizzou Arena. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)
Year three under Dennis Gates follows a historically poor 2023-24 campaign. Can the Tigers bounce back? And if so, how far can they rocket themselves up arguably the deepest conference in the nation?
Dec. 30, 2024. Mizzou men’s basketball knocked off Central Arkansas 92-59. The win moved the Tigers to 8-5 on the season.
It also marked their most recent victory.
What followed was an undesired recalling of the illustrious 1907-08 squad, as the Tigers finished the season 0-18 in conference play for the first time since Teddy Roosevelt was president.
Now, Mizzou begins its quest for a return to national relevance in a positive sense, an effort that’s led by a strong transfer class, promising freshmen and seasoned returners. Here are some of the season’s biggest storylines ahead of MU’s opener against Memphis on Monday.
Rebounding from 0-18
In 1994, Mizzou made history by going 14-0 in the Big 8. 30 years later, the Tigers made history once again – just not the kind anyone involved wanted to be a part of.
However, they weren’t completely awful. They gave top teams like Kansas, Tennessee and South Carolina some of its toughest tests of the season. Their KenPom luck rating — a measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies — was dead last in the nation. Their record easily could’ve been a lot better.
But, at the end of the day, even when the Tigers were amidst competitive contests, they could never finish the job. A year after finishing 9-1 in games decided by two possessions or less, they turned around an opposite record by finishing 1-9 last season. Even comparatively to poor seasons in recent past, Mizzou didn’t fall apart in the home stretch of games quite like they did in 2023-24.
Did the least fun research project ever.
Below is Mizzou’s performance in SEC league games during their five (!!) 20+ loss campaigns. They are broken into two categories and tallied the average deficit. pic.twitter.com/C7vF4ton0q
— Order On The Court ⚖️ (@DataMizzou) February 29, 2024
As Rock M’s Matt Watkins noted, they died how they lived. Against Georgia in the SEC tournament, for example, Noah Carter had an open three that would’ve tied the game with nine seconds left in regulation, and he just…missed. The opportunity for success was right there, and the Tigers simply came up short.
But there were other factors that contributed to the demise. Injuries decimated Mizzou, from Caleb Grill breaking his wrist in the ninth game of the season to John Tonje appearing in only eight games before being shut down. It forced head coach Dennis Gates to rely on funky rotations that never truly gelled as the season went along.
“I don’t wish anything that we went through last year even to our opponents in the SEC,” Gates said. “Our rotations missed 111 games altogether. That’s unheard of.”
As a result, they entered an exclusive club; rather, they tripped and fell into an exclusive club. But in the context of other teams who have gone 0-for in conference play, Mizzou’s donut wasn’t nearly as glum. Just because you’re part of a club doesn’t mean you’re like everyone in it.
In the modern NCAA Tournament era (1984-85 season and beyond), there have been 85 instances of a Division I team going winless in conference play. However, most of those instances were mid-majors; only 19 (including this past season) were power conference teams.
Some of those teams were truly abysmal. 2023-24 DePaul finished 304th (!) in KenPom, the lowest ever for a Power 6 team in the KenPom era (since 2001-02); out of their 20 conference losses, the Blue Demons fell by single-digits just three times. 2017-18 Pittsburgh had a bottom-five scoring offense in the entire country, which included a seven-point first half against Virginia. 2013-14 TCU lost to Longwood, who finished 346th out of 351 teams in KenPom, and also barely beat Alaska-Anchorage. 2007-08 Oregon State actually did lose to a team from Alaska in a 62-60 loss to Alaska-Fairbanks. That’s basically the inverse plot of “Mystery, Alaska”: the Alaskan team isn’t actually that good, but they end up winning in the end.
But arguably no team from this group embodied true terribleness like 1999-00 Northwestern. The Wildcats had almost double the amount of games with less than 50 points (14) than games with more than 60 (8), which was still one of the worst averages in the sport. They scored eight first-half points against Evansville in a 48-26 defeat, missed 18 of their first 19 shots in a 60-41 loss to Oakland and missed their first 23 shots against Illinois.
Here’s five minutes of Northwestern trying to score against the Illini, which looked like students from the Medill School of Journalism were put in uniform and forced to play as punishment for plagiarism. If you enjoy watching offenses look completely lifeless, this one’s for you.
Mizzou was in a far better spot than not just Northwestern, but all of the teams mentioned. Now, the goal is to move past it and reinvigorate Mizzou Arena that was filled with boundless joy not too long ago.
“(They’re) eager and determined,” Gates said. “This team will build their own story.”
Forging an identity
Two seasons ago, Mizzou had a very clear sense of self.
The Tigers were undersized and, like many Dennis Gates-run teams, didn’t rebound the ball very well. But offensively, they found success in cranking up the tempo, shooting lots of three-pointers and taking care of the basketball. Defensively, they would pressure opponents until they either turned into diamonds or broke.
Last season, there was no sense of identity. For example, Georgetown went winless in conference play three years ago; its offense resembled one you might see in the Kenner League, a summer basketball league where some of the top high school talent in the area would play formalized pickup games. There were a lot of inefficient isolation possessions with very little passing or off-ball movement. It often looked like the five players on the floor had met each other minutes before the game, which is fine at your local park, but definitely not fine against, you know, UConn and Villanova.
Mizzou looked far closer to that than the coherent machine it was in 2022-23. While the Tigers possessed capable ball-handlers like Sean East II and Nick Honor, rhythm was inconsistent. East and Tamar Bates seemed to be the only one who could create their own shot at a high level. They weren’t very good at three-point shooting (31.9%, 289th), nor could they get to the free throw line effectively (583 free throw attempts, 252nd). Remember when Gates said, “I think we suck at it. We’re f***ing terrible” after the Tennessee game? That was in reference to MU’s lack of ability to draw fouls, something that Gates touched on once again during the team’s first media availability.
“I’ve done a poor job as a head coach getting results in the free throw game,” Gates said. “Although I’ve emphasized it the last two years, we’ve still been somehow at the bottom of (the SEC). Maybe I need to give more technical fouls.”
Defensively, Mizzou’s guards outside of Anthony Robinson II struggled mightily offering resistance on the perimeter. Down low, the Tigers couldn’t offer much resistance despite portal investment into bigs like Jesus Carralero-Martin and Connor Vanover. The question of, “What is Mizzou?” on either side of the ball couldn’t be answered.
This season, however, the Tigers have the tools to redefine themselves. On paper, there are plenty of scoring options. Bates should be an offensive captain again, and he’ll have some help on the wing. Marques Warrick (Northern Kentucky) is Division I’s active all-time scoring leader who overcomes a slender frame with an elite three-level scoring ability.
“If you have guys to be able to make the extra plays, meaning the unscripted plays,” Gates said. “you have guys that can really take over games and make big plays for us.”
In the paint, Mark Mitchell starred in an off-ball role at Duke, but he projects to produce heavily down low in a Kobe Brown-esque role of a big who’s shorter than average but is incredibly strong with an improving three-point shot. Speaking of beyond the arc, the return of Caleb Grill and the addition of Jacob Crews (UT-Martin) should also help the three-point shooting numbers.
Despite the Skyhawks being located over two hours away from Nashville, it felt like Crews’ range extended to the Music City. He shot over 41% from downtown last season; whether he shot a triple off of a screen, off the dribble or in transition, Crews was comfortable letting it fly from what seemed like wherever.
In terms of fortifying the interior, Mitchell, Josh Gray (South Carolina) and a pair of freshmen in Peyton Marshall and Trent Burns should help, especially on the glass. Mizzou grabbed 45.5% of available rebounds last season, a bottom-20 number in the nation; on paper, that number should improve this season.
“This is a better rebounding team by nature,” Gates said. “Those guys can rebound at a high level.”
There’s a real chance that this team be something similar to what they were two seasons ago. There’s length and athleticism all over the place; out of the players most likely to play at least a quarter of a game’s minutes this season, Warrick and Anthony Robinson II are the shortest one at 6-foot-3. Even so, Robinson II figures to take a leap as an on-ball menace, which he flashed last season. While Tony Perkins (Iowa), the likely starter at point guard, isn’t nearly as disruptive on defense, his 6-foot-4, 205-pound frame is a massive physical upgrade from Honor.
Elsewhere, Perkins and Warrick were fantastic in transition for their respective teams. They’ll likely want to push the pace, and they’re flanked by effective shooters. While replicating the success of two seasons ago will be difficult, Gates has proven to be effective at molding his team’s play style around its players’ strengths, even if the system generally remains the same.
“Personnel sometimes allows you to play a certain way, and you get the outcomes you get,” gates said. “You’ve got to listen to your team. They will tell you what they need more of and what they don’t.”
The SEC gauntlet
The SEC has sent at least six teams to the NCAA Tournament in every season since 2018. This time around should see a similar story play out.
Nine SEC teams were included in the preseason AP Top 25, and MU will split its 10 games against that group between Mizzou Arena and on the road. The Tigers will host No. 2 Alabama (Feb. 19), No. 13 Texas A&M (Feb. 8), No. 23 Kentucky (Mar. 8) and No. 24 Ole Miss (Jan. 25). They’ll travel to No. 11 Auburn (Jan. 4), No. 12 Tennessee (Feb. 5), No. 19 Texas (Jan. 21) and No. 21 Florida (Jan. 14). MU has a home-and-home with No. 16 Arkansas (Jan. 18, Feb. 22).
Even the unranked teams could make some noise. Mississippi State (Feb. 1) is a No. 8 seed in Joe Lunardi’s most recent edition of Bracketology, and LSU (Jan. 7) as well as Oklahoma (Feb. 12, Mar. 5) are top-50 KenPom teams.
Like every season, these rankings will probably move up and down as time passes, especially because many rosters are new, the Razorbacks and Wildcats being hyper-examples. But if the season plays out even close to how it could, the Tigers will really have their work cut out for them once conference play kicks off Jan. 4.
How impactful can the freshmen be?
It’s unlikely that any one of Burns, Marshall, Marcus Allen, T.O. Barrett and Annor Boateng receive major minutes this season. But last season proved that the youth may have to grow up quickly if called upon.
Luckily for the Tigers, those freshmen seem ready to play. Annor Boateng is already a physically filled out forward — even better for MU, his strengths lie running in transition and cutting off the ball, two essential skills in effectively executing Gates’ system (he can also play the saxophone, which is pretty neat). Allen is of a similar build and Burns and Marshall provide value with their size. The only one that likely won’t see much playing time is Barrett, who’s buried behind Perkins, Robinson and other guards on the depth chart.
“Their goal is, as a class, is for all five of them to go to the NBA,” Gates said. “That’s an unbelievable feat to accomplish if it does happen. But they know that they all are going to take different paths, and they all have different hurdles to overcome to get there.”
History of third-year head coaches at Mizzou
Historically, the third year of a Mizzou men’s basketball head coach’s tenure has been climactic; results have been all over the place, from some of the best seasons in program history to one of the worst.
This isn’t to imply that Gates will be let go if the Tigers perform poorly once again. Besides, his contract runs through the 2028-29 season, and he’s become one of the most beloved coaches at the school in recent memory. He’s recruited at an elite level both at the high school ranks and in the transfer portal, helping put together the most talented roster by 247 Sports’ composite index in almost a decade.
But Gates enters his third season at Mizzou with a Jekyll and Hyde resume. The desire to wash out the bad taste of last season is strong. When asked about season goals, Burns kept it simple.
“Win as many games as possible,” Burns said. “Keep the loss column to a minimum.”
Under Gates, Mizzou has shot for the moon before the season; within the program, a Final Four appearance is the expectation. Whether they can actually get to San Antonio remains to be seen; MU is projected to finish in the middle of the pack within a deep SEC. But the Tigers will shoot for it anyways.
“Our goal is to play in the Alamodome,” Gates said.
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