
The Morning Commute for Wednesday, December 11th
Welcome to the Morning Commute
Today we’re talking about the college football playoff at a 50,000-foot level.
Below, you’ll see a link to a story yesterday by Nate Edwards where he pontificated that even had Mizzou won at South Carolina, a 10-2 Tiger team likely would have been left out of the 12-team playoff field. I think he’s right. And that made me sad. In no way would I have ever thought an SEC team with a 10-2 record and a top-20 rated schedule would ever NOT make the 12-team tournament.
That prompted me to do some research, as my theory was that 2024 was an anomaly with way more 10 or more win teams than most years after the regular season. I thought for sure in most every other year, 10 wins would have been an automatic entry.
Well, after looking at the numbers, I was wrong.
Going back to the 2014 season, I found four other seasons where there were just as many or more P4/P5 teams with 10 or more wins than in 2024. This season, there were 14 P4 teams with 10 wins or more, which means in simple math terms that at least two of them would be automatically left out of the field. The other years with the same or more numbers included 2023 (14 P5 teams with 10 or more regular-season wins), 2021 (16), 2019 (14) and 2015 (14).
In three years (2014, 2017, 2022) there were 12 P5 teams with 10 or more wins, and you know with the current auto-bid formula for conference champs that not every team would have made it in.
The chart below explains further what I’m talking about, but in the end I guess it made me feel a little better. Mizzou didn’t get “screwed” out of a special opportunity just because it was a crazy year. The 2024 season was actually pretty routine when you look at the numbers, and that was slightly surprising to me.
Hope that all makes sense, share your thoughts in the comments section, or over at RockM+ on the forums.
Power 4/5 teams with 10 or more regular season wins
Year All Teams / P4/P5 Only
2024 21 / 14
2023 20 / 14
2022 16 / 12
2021 24 / 16
2020 COVID
2019 22 / 14
2018 15 / 9
2017 19 / 12
2016 16 / 10
2015 20 / 14
2014 16 / 12
(Including Notre Dame and BYU who was independent before joining the Big 12)
This week’s SEC Shorts video was pretty dang good, I’d recommend you catch this one if you want some chuckles at the expense of a handful of programs.
Yesterday at Rock M and Rock M+
- You’ll want to keep this link bookmarked and refer to it often, it’s the Rock M Mizzou Football Transfer Tracker, which in case you didn’t hear, had a bit of news on Tuesday…
Big news to start the second day of the portal window — true freshman and former five-star recruit Williams Nwaneri plans to enter the portal.
Oh, Williams, we hardly knew ye. Kinda stinks, but it’s the nature of the beast in this new era of college ball. The Tigers have been on the plus-side of the transfer portal ledger way more often than not so far, so we’ll trust that Drink and company will find a way to fill the hole.
- Speaking of the above info, Nathan Hurst did a semi-emergency breakdown of the Nwaneri news and how it’s just something we all have to get used to going forward…
The jewel of the Tigers’ 2024 recruiting class, Nwaneri lasted barely a semester in Columbia before seeking greener pastures. On paper, this is a big loss for a Mizzou team that is already losing it’s other five-star talent this off-season to the NFL draft. In reality, however, this move hurts the Tigers way less than it appears.
Nathan’s argument is that while it’s certainly not ideal to lose a name recruit in this manner, it’s actually a good problem for Mizzou in that it indicates the roster is full of players that other schools have a desire to lure away. Just like the Tiger coaching staff is doing with plenty of exciting incoming transfers that we’ll all get very excited about down the road. The transfer portal giveth, and it taketh away.
- Four quarters of feedback from yours truly here in my weekly Mo’s Musings column, where, among other things, I lamented the current CFP seeding procedures…
…giving a first-round bye to the top four conference champs is not the way. What resulted in this first year was giving a bye to Boise State and Arizona State – which should never happen. There is no way either of them are a top-four team, and they shouldn’t be rewarded with an extra week off to heal and prepare. That’s inequitable, and you can’t convince me otherwise.
Man, this guy is one hell of a writer. Or, he’s a clueless hack who’s full of hot air. Since I know the guy pretty well, I’m gonna go with the latter.
- Nate Edwards tackles the hypothetical question of would Mizzou have made the playoff field with a win at South Carolina? It’s interesting to debate…
I don’t think Missouri would have made it into the Playoff even if they beat South Carolina. There were enough two loss teams floating around with the mandate of not punishing championship game participants that I believe Mizzou still gets left out in the cold with a win in the Mayor’s Cup.
I think he’s right, and that makes me personally sad when I think that a 10-2 SEC team can’t make the playoffs. In what world would anyone have imagined that?
- In Tuesday’s Morning Commute, Sammy Stava celebrated all the kudos the Tiger men’s hoops team garnered nationally due to their huge win over the alleged university to the west…
Dick Vitale’s Team of the Week? How about them Tigers!
Tamar Bates was named the NCAA’s player of the week, and the SEC also followed suit with the same acclaim. Fun stuff to see!
- Over at Rock M+, we’re talking about whaddya expect? The transfer portal!
AlaTiger said about losing Nwaneri: “The PR hit depends on what happens at his next stop. If he puts in the work and grows into his potential, then, sure, it will look bad. If his motor continues to misfire, then not so much.
Pretty spot on perspective there. You’re inevitably going to lose some talent in this day and age to the portal. You just have to gain more than you give away to stay above water.
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