Photo by Carly Mackler/Getty Images

Previewing the Vanderbilt Commodores Men’s Basketball team. Can Mark Byington surprise with a brand new roster in year one?

It might surprise you, but I looked foward to writing this preview. At the very least, Vanderbilt usually offers up a couple of interesting storylines, and that remains true after Jerry Stackhouse’s dismissal this spring.

Around here, we talked a lot about Stack, smart scouts, and scheme. He was sharp in those areas, but they don’t matter if you can’t handle the more essential elements of the job. And as a high-major coach, that’s usually talent acquisition. Ultimately, Stackhouse didn’t win enough recruiting battles; each spring, there was just enough turnover to keep his rebuild stagnant.

With Stackhouse gone, a new era has started, and I’m intrigued to watch and investigate. Vandy has long been one of the league’s darkhorse powerhouse programs thanks to its proximity to talent and a deep pocketbook (if they ever wanted to exercise that part of it). Nashville is also a fun town, as I’m sure many of you know.

But Vanderbilt has seldom realized their potential as a program. Perhaps a new direction under a new coach is the step toward realizing that potential?

Other SEC Previews:

13. Oklahoma Sooners, 7-11
14. Georgia Bulldogs, 6-12
15. LSU Tigers, 5-13
16. South Carolina Gamecocks, 5-13

Vanderbilt Commodores

Last season: 9 – 23 (4-14 in conference) #183

The Masses Prediction: 15th in conference, 4.6 – 13.4

SEC Media: 16th in conference

Analytics Average: 16th in conference, 77th overall

Photo by Vanderbilt Athletics/Getty Images

HEAD COACH: Mark Byington | 1st Season, 0-0

Of the three SEC teams that hired new coaches, Vanderbilt was the only opening that resulted from a hiring. The Commodores dismissed Stackhouse after a 9-23 season where they finished 183rd in KenPom.

The firing was justified, and Stackhouse quickly moved to a job as an assistant coach for the Golden State Warriors, which was back in his wheelhouse.

My advice for hiring coaches is bland: hire the best coach and hope they figure out the rest.

Mark Byington would fit the bill. He got his start as an assistant coach with Bobby Cremins at the College of Charleston before taking the head job at Georgia Southern, replacing current MU assistant Charlton Young. Byington recorded four 20-win campaigns in seven seasons while transitioning the program to the Sun Belt Conference from the Southern Conference. He left in 2020, and the program has sniffed 20 wins since.

Byington’s arrival at James Madison coincided with a high-water period for an athletic program that, relative to its financial and fan support, was solid. No coach in the program’s history won like Byington did in his fourth season, leading the Dukes to 32 victories and the second round of the NCAA tournament.

No hire is a certainty, but Vanderbilt picked a guy who has maxed out the potential at two programs where winning isn’t assured.

From 2007 to 2012, Vanderbilt went to five NCAA tournaments in six years under Kevin Stallings—not just trips, but two four-seeds, two five-seeds, and a six-seed. Then, they returned in 2016 and again in 2017. They haven’t been back.

Since their last trip to the tournament, things have been rough. Stackhouse made the NIT in back-to-back seasons, but the Commodores have more nine-win seasons (3) than postseason trips (2). Toss in 11-win and 12-win seasons, and I’m sure just consistently being competitive again would be a welcome site in Memorial Gym.

LOST PRODUCTION

% Minutes: 89.57% | 14th
% Points: 95.17% | 15th
% Possessions: 93.23% | 15th

Byington isn’t going to get much help from the old roster because virtually all of it is gone. Arkansas and Kentucky, who also have new coaches, found themselves in the same situation. That’s to be expected in this era.

I don’t know how many players who left would fit with Byington. Still, nine Commodores entered the transfer portal, and several found good landing spots. Five signed with other high majors, including Ven-Allen Lubin, who transferred to North Carolina. For a roster featuring just three seniors (one being Tyrin Lawrence, who had an extra year of eligibility), seeing so few players stick it out is a little surprising.

Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Even in the current era of roster turnover, it’s not easy to start from scratch. But that’s what Byington faced this spring. He brought in 10 transfers and retained two high-school recruits who signed on when Stackhouse still had the job. He also retained two scholarship players from last season.

The two returners were lightly used, but there’s long-term potential. JaQualon Roberts is a slender and bouncy combo forward capable of guarding multiple positions. Jordan Williams rarely saw minutes last season after being buried on the bench at Texas A&M, making it hard to forecast that he will have much impact this season.

Byington’s most prominent pickup is A.J. Hoggard, who started 83 games at point guard over four seasons at Michigan State. The veteran’s scoring was always been limited, but he’s boasted one of the best assist rates in the country over the past three seasons. While he’s not his best at finishing off the bounce and in ball screens, Hoggard graded out well when shooting off the catch, averaging 1.111 points per possession.

In East Lansing, Hoggard paired up nicely with a leaner combo guard. That situation might happen again when he shares the floor with North Texas transfer Jason Edwards. The sophomore averaged 19.1 points per game and is happy to hunt for offense in the mid-range. After that, Byington added Tyler Nickel, who made 39.9% of his threes at Virginia Tech and has a bigger frame at 6-foot-7. Combo forward Devin McGlockton excels as a rim finisher. And Chris Manon is a strong-bodied driver from Cornell. As an undersized five, Byington also took a flyer on Kijani Wright, a sophomore and former McDonald’s All-American. He bought with him Jaylen Carrey, a young developmental big who saw limited action as a freshman with James Madison.

Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Byington’s system relies on a deep bench, often going 10-deep but not blitzing the pace. His teams steadily roll bodies through. Last season, Terrence Edwards, the Sun Belt’s Player of the Year, only saw 75.6% of minutes. So, it’s unlikely that any Commodore will average 30 minutes each night, and Hoggard might be the closest to that cutoff.

After Hoggard, the rotation can go several ways. Evan Miyakawa’s BPR model isn’t all that keen on Edwards, but the ‘Dores will need some scoring punch from an on-ball creator. But if Edwards is a microwave scorer of the bench, the backcourt would rely on Nickel to consistently can jumpers, but the tradeoff is he’s not known for his defensive ability. Meanwhile, Manon is transferring from the Ivy League, and Grant Huffman arrives from Davidson. That said, Byington does not lack options.

The bigger concern is inside. Wright never established himself as a reliable interior presence at USC, and now he’s sidelined with an undisclosed health issue. Carrey saw consistent minutes as a freshman, but that was in a mid-major setting. McGlockton and Roberts each possess decent size, but neither is known for rim protection.

SCHEDULES

An example of how an MTE (multiple team event) can really impact your non-conference schedule is here with Vanderbilt and the Charleston Classic. It’s a good field, but far from a great one. If you were to guess which team has the highest team rating on EvanMiya.com you might be surprised to learn it’s VCU at 41. Vanderbilt is fortunate to draw one of the better opponents to start in Nevada, but a loss would likely send them into Quad 2 and possibly Quad 3 territory. Those aren’t the type of neutral games you want to play. Here are the Miya rankings for the remaining opponents: Miami 57, Oklahoma State 71, Seton Hall 81, Florida Atlantic 136 and Drake at 157.

A neutral site quad three game is anything over 100, and Quad 1 is anything 50 or under.

The only lock for a quad one game is the neutral site game against TCU in the USLBM Coast to Coast challenge. Vanderbilt should get plenty of Q1 chances in league play, and their schedule is fair. Getting Tennessee and Kentucky twice along with a manageable home slate is reason to think Vandy could sneak into the NCAA Tournament conversation.

THE RULING

It’s easy to imagine various outcomes, but I don’t see Vandy being as bad as it has been in recent seasons. It has the pieces to be a potent offense, but there are questions about how consistently it will defend.

Only two transfers — Huffman and M.J. Collins — shot worse than 34% from beyond the arc last season. Byington also snuck in Alex Hemenway, a proven floor spacer from Clemson, to go with Hoggard and Nickel. So, Vandy should be able to spread the floor, force hard closeouts and create gaps to attack. That would benefit Edwards and Manon. Even McGlockton can create some stress, because he shot 36.7% from 3-point range on modest volume.

Last season, Byington’s team ranked among the top 60 nationally in 3-point volume. He should have the parts to repeat that feat in Nashville.

There is enough here to see Vanderbilt contend for an NCAA Tournament berth and finish within the top six of the SEC — if things break right.

We’re not projecting that type of finish because it’s much less frequent than you imagine. Most teams using the portal to build out their entire roster are a mixture of okay and bad. When building out the roster, Byington certainly took a lot of quality players. Still, many don’t have great reputations defending, and few provide rim protection.

That’s just a tough way to live in the SEC.

My Results: Vanderbilt Commodores — 12th in Conference, 7-11

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.