SEC Hoops Preview: Texas A&M Aggies

Oct 21, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Kim Klement-Imagn Images

Previewing the Texas A&M Aggies Men’s Basketball team. Can Buzz Williams earn his first real deep tournament run?

It’s uncommon, but within the realm of possibility, for a team to entirely run it back. Two years ago, the Texas A&M Aggies had one of the surprise breakouts when a team picked in the middle of the pack broke out and nearly won the league. The 2022-23 Aggies went 15-3 in league play, despite not crossing into the top 30 in KenPom until very late in the season, and even then finishing 33rd after being bounced out of the NCAA Tournament in round one.

The Aggies ran it back. They returned 8 of their top 9 players and were picked by the media to finish second in the SEC. But the magic they captured in league play the season before seemed gone. Overall, the league offenses improved enough to nullify the Aggie’s advantages, and they slumped, at one point losing five games in a row. Including dropping games to Vanderbilt (183rd in KenPom.com) and Arkansas (108th) and a home game to South Carolina, all to drop to 6-9 in the league. But the Aggies recovered enough to win their final three games, including a couple in the SEC Tournament, and they were safely in.

A year after finishing 33rd in KenPom, the Aggies finished 35th. Now, guess what? We’re going to run it back for a third time! A&M returns the most production and minutes of anyone in the league. The same cast of characters, perhaps a different outcome?

Previous SEC Previews:

10. Texas Longhorns, 8-10
11. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 7-11
12. Vanderbilt Commodores, 7-11
13. Oklahoma Sooners, 7-11
14. Georgia Bulldogs, 6-12
15. LSU Tigers, 5-13
16. South Carolina Gamecocks, 5-13

## Texas A&M Aggies

Last season: 21 – 15 (9-9 in conference) #35

The Masses Prediction: 6th in conference, 10.9 – 7.1

SEC Media Pick: 5th in conference

Analytics Average: 4th in conference, 16th overall

Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

HEAD COACH: Buzz Williams | 6th Season, 97-62

After five seasons, this is as much of a Buzz Williams program as he’s ever had. Williams spent 6 seasons as the Marquette head coach, then 5 more as the head coach at Virginia Tech. He was handed a running car at Marquette and kept it humming, but he had to build it back up at Tech. With Texas A&M, a program with limited success historically but a renewed commitment to hoops recently, there was always going to be a build, and it took Williams a few years to get things going. However, few programs can point to the consistency and lack of roster turnover that keeps things looking hopeful each fall in College Station.

Whatever Williams is selling to his roster, the guys who are part of the rotation are sticking around. For half of Williams’ tenure at Texas A&M, and it feels like he’s been there a while, he’s had the same playing rotation.

With Buzz, there’s a known. His team is going to be physical, crash the glass, and likely shoot a lot of free throws. It may not be the most aesthetically appealing style of basketball, but the results are effective.

The history of Texas A&M Aggie basketball was a deep void until Billy Clyde Gillespie took the reins in 2004. The Aggies have made 10 NCAA trips in 20 years, which accounts for 62% of their total. If you don’t count the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, during which the Aggies struggled to keep their schedule and only played 10 conference games, the team has only had one losing season in that span.

Gillespie, then Mark Turgeon, Billy Kennedy and now Buzz Williams have all been instrumental in making Texas A&M basketball relevant. With Williams carrying the torch, their collective efforts have raised the bar and the expectations in College Station.

LOST PRODUCTION

Minutes: 21.53% | 1st
Points: 23.06% | 1st
Possessions: 24.30% | 1st

For the second year in a row, the Aggies have brought back the most production in the SEC. Even two years ago, Williams’ squad retained players that logged 65% of minutes. Continuity is a real asset to his program.

Churn unfolded at the bottom of the roster, as younger players departed in search of more minutes, likely aware that veterans blocked their path in College Station. Two years ago, the Aggies lost one cog from their rotation in Dexter Dennis. This season they’re replacing Tyrese ‘Boots’ Radford. Radford accounted for 70% of minutes and 18.11% of possessions. He carried a hefty load on offense, only offset some down the stretch by former five-star recruit Manny Obaseki experiencing an epiphany to become a significant contributor in the last eight games.

Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Retaining Wade Taylor IV was the biggest win this offseason after rumblings and rumors that the combo guard might seek a bigger payday elsewhere. Last season, Taylor finished with a 29% usage rate, leading the SEC and almost 6 percentage points ahead of Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht. If Taylor had exited, it would have punched a hole in the hull of the Aggies’ offense.

But Taylor wasn’t perfect last season. His minutes increased, but his efficiency (109.8 ORtg) slipped by four points per 100 possessions. You can trace that to a dip in his 3-point shooting, which settled at 32.5% on 80 more attempts.

So, Taylor could use some help. A healthy Henry Coleman might be one solution. After getting dinged up early in SEC play, the forward missed a couple of games and returned with three weeks left in the regular season but only played more than 25 minutes once in that closing stretch. When fit, Coleman’s an elite rim finisher.

SMU transfer Zhuric Phelps is Williams’ attempt to backfill for Radford’s lost output. Phelps averaged 14.8 points and 4.1 rebounds last season, but his efficiency in half-court settings only ranked in the 23rd percentile nationally. What’s especially worrisome is Phelps’ rim finishing wasn’t all that effective (0.84 PPP) against a set defense, and opponents don’t have to respect him as a floor spacer (19.3 3FG%) when Taylor’s trying to crack a defense open. Put another way, Radford’s intended replacement is 15% less efficient at the same job.

The rest of the Aggies’ portal class is comprised of depth pieces. Ideally, Nebraska transfer C.J. Wilcher’s jumper, which canned 37.4% of catch-and-shoot 3s, translates at a new stop. Minnesota transfer Pharrel Payne is a mobile and athletic four-man who fits Williams’ style as a board-crasher and rim-finisher.

The other returners will be interesting to watch. For example, can Obaseki’s progress carry over to an entire season? And will reserves like Solomon Washington, Hayden Hefner, and Jace Carter do more than serve as bystanders as Taylor goes to work? An underappreciated piece in that respect is Andersson Garcia, who cleaned up so many A&M first-shot misses that he helped the Aggies finish first in the country in Offensive Rebound rate. Garcia had nearly twice as many offensive rebounds as anyone else on the roster.

Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The Aggies’ rotation might be the easiest to project. Just put everyone where they were last season and move on.

However, it’s never quite that straightforward. Williams needs to figure out whether Obaseki or Phelps plays second fiddle to Taylor. And because the Aggies have a deeper squad than in past seasons, it might mean Wilcher crowds out a vet like Hefner. Our projection is that Williams sticks with Obaseki early on, hoping the wing comes close to matching the 15.9 points per game he averaged on the run-in.

The rest of the roster is looking to clean up the misses on the glass.

Well, this is bold! In this space, we’ve been quite critical of Williams and his attempts at scheduling. Three seasons ago, A&M got left out of the NCAA Tournament after a soft schedule in the non-conference. They nearly won the league the following year, but another soft non-conference schedule relegated them to a 7 seed. This year? FIVE Quad-1 games in the non-conference and a pair of Quad-2 games! No matter the results, A&M won’t be punished for playing those games as long as they win a few.

The SEC’s schedule is about as good as expected. It opens with Texas at home and Alabama, Auburn and Tennessee at home in Reed Arena.

THE RULING

There’s no mystery around the Aggies’ approach. You beat them by keeping them off the glass and away from the free-throw line.

A&M’s regression to .500 in league play can be traced to its drop in free-throw rate by 6.5 percentage points. They also shot the ball worse from long range (29.3 3FG%), creating a hole that couldn’t be totally filled by mashing opponents for putbacks.

We also know Taylor will gobble up possessions, but will it come close to his volume from last season? Williams’ decision to add Phelps implies that he’d like to redistribute some of those touches elsewhere in the rotation. It would also be a boost if Obaseki (again) resembled the guy we saw late last season.

Spreading some of those possessions to Phelps and Obaseki would move Taylor back to a point on his skill curve that maxes out his efficiency. Of course, some assumptions are baked in about Phelps improving and Obaseki showing some consistency. Oh, and Coleman taking up his old role.

While we know the personnel and their skill sets, this isn’t simple plug-and-play. This cast of characters has real unknowns and downsides.

Suppose Taylor is expected to handle 25% of all the team’s possessions and play well north of 80% of the minutes. In that case, it is a recipe for another 9-9 season in league play. If you’re the betting type, the odds feel good for that. Taylor demands attention, he demands the ball, and his talent and ability means he will take a lot of shots. Buzz will still need to tame the beast and see if Obaseki and Phelps can free up Taylor to not have to be the guy every time.

My Results: Texas A&M Aggies — 9th in Conference, 9-9

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.

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