SEC Hoops Preview: Tennessee Volunteers

Oct 29, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Previewing the Tennessee Volunteers Men’s Basketball team. Rick Barnes has elevated Tennessee basketball, can he take the next step and get them to a Final Four?

Over the past five years, you could count on a few things in Knoxville: an elite defense, a so-so offense, an NCAA tournament trip, and an early exit when that inconsistent offense failed to turn up.

Two seasons ago, the Volunteers were so good on defense that even a remotely competent attack might have ushered them into the Final Four. Instead, Florida Atlantic bounced them in the Sweet 16.

So Rick Barnes went out and found the best scorer in the transfer portal, Dalton Knecht, and watched him become the SEC’s Player of the Year. Knecht’s presence boosted the Vols to 28th in offensive efficiency from 64th. Unfortunately, Zach Edey and Purdue interrupted a Final Four run.

Now, for the first time in several years, Barnes is faced with real roster turnover.

Other SEC Previews:

4. Arkansas Razorbacks, 11-7
5. Florida Gators, 11-7
6. Kentucky Wildcats, 10-8
7. Missouri Tigers, 9-9
8. Ole Miss Rebels, 9-9
9. Texas A&M Aggies, 9-9
10. Texas Longhorns, 8-10
11. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 7-11
12. Vanderbilt Commodores, 7-11
13. Oklahoma Sooners, 7-11
14. Georgia Bulldogs, 6-12
15. LSU Tigers, 5-13
16. South Carolina Gamecocks, 5-13

Tennessee Volunteers

Last season: 27 – 9 (14-4 in conference) #5 overall

The Masses Prediction: 3rd in conference, 12.3 – 5.7

SEC Media Pick: 3rd in conference

Analytics Average: 3rd in conference, 11th overall

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HEAD COACH: Rick Barnes | 10th Season, 202-101

It’s hard to believe it’s been 10 years of Rick Barnes at Tennessee, but here we are. Barnes arrived in Knoxville having been pushed out at Texas, a program that reached the NCAA tournament in 16 of the 17 seasons he worked in Austin. Barnes is also responsible for the highest KenPom rating at the three most recent schools he’s coached: Clemson, Texas, and Tennessee.

After a bumpy first few seasons, Barnes has taken Tennessee to the tournament in six of the last seven years, including five trips as a protected seed. It’s simple enough to say that he’s got this program humming. We now expect Tennessee to be near the top of the conference rankings every year.

That’s where we are with Rick Barnes. I’m not sure I like this roster much, but we’ve still got them to the top of the league standings and have a lock to make it to the NCAA Tournament. At Texas, Barnes fielded some of the best offensive teams in the country, and at Tennessee, he trots out some of the best defensive teams. No matter what sideline Rick Barnes is on, he finds ways to win a lot of games.

It’s still impressive to me how disastrous the hiring of Donnie Tyndall was. It’s also remarkable how UT went from Bruce Pearl, who is inarguably one of the least-liked personalities in college basketball, to Cuonzo Martin, one of the most respected, and then landed on Rick Barnes. Barnes has the same respect Martin has as a person while keeping the same level of respect for his coaching acumen. The only hit to Barnes in his tenure at Tennessee is that the Vols have had some offensive issues. But otherwise, it’s been a home run.

LOST PRODUCTION

Minutes: 62.39% | 9th
Points: 68.02% | 10th
Possessions: 64.53% | 9th

This is going to be a new-look Tennessee team, as so many familiar names have finally called it a career, mostly due to expiring eligibility. The main driver of the Tennessee offense was Dalton Knecht, a transfer wing who landed himself in the NBA draft and will suit up for the Lakers this season.

Also gone are the very familiar names of Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James, who were mainstays in the Vols’ backcourt for the last five seasons. Jonas Aidoo, Tobe Awaka, DJ Jefferson, and Freddie Dillone left for the transfer portal. But the main driver of the offense was Knecht, who was responsible for over 23% of the team’s possessions last year and almost 28% of the team’s points.

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Tennessee has been one of the outliers in continuity during the transfer portal era. Since the portal became more prominent post-COVID, Tennessee hadn’t lost any major contributors at all until this past offseason—at least not anyone who hadn’t entered as a grad transfer. But with Tennessee’s two big men, Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka, both entering the transfer portal, it means Barnes himself also needed to test the depth of interior players in the portal.

Replacing Aidoo’s defense and rim protection wouldn’t be easy, but Ohio State transfer Felix Okpara might be even better. He’s very low usage and far from an offensive threat, but he has an elite block rate and is a good rebounder as well. Next to Okpara will be Charlotte transfer Igor Miličić, a more skilled post player with a high block rate.

Okpara and Miličić will have company as Tennessee welcomes back two former top-100 recruits heading into their sophomore year. J.P. Estrella and Cade Phillips saw their minutes fluctuate at times last year, but both should see more prominent roles this year.

There won’t be a competition at point guard where senior Zakai Zeigler returns to man the spot for another season. At just 5-foot-9, Zeigler can sometimes be targeted on the defensive end, but his quick hands make it difficult on anyone. He doesn’t always provide consistent shooting, but Zeigler is the straw that stirs the drink on both sides of the floor.

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Where things may get complicated is beyond the leadership of Zeigler and the interior rim protection of Okpara, Miličić, Estrella and Philips.

The only question surrounding Jahmai Mashack is whether there’s another step he can take? Mashack has grown steadily for three seasons and become a reliable, efficient role player. He’s slowly built up his ability to knock down jumpers, but he’s never been much of a creator of offense. He’s more of an elite defender who can knock down some shots now. Mashack is most likely going to be the starter on the wing. But can he be more than he’s been?

Jordan Gainey stepped into a more significant role than expected last year and had his moments. However, he struggled to knock down shots, hitting just 28% from outside. His struggles to hit open shots likely led the Vols to seek additional outside help, which they landed with North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier. A role player for three seasons at UNF, Lanier exploded onto the scene as the primary option last year and shot 43.4% from three.

Lanier has some pretty gnarly defensive numbers. To backstop the shooting, the Volunteers also added Hofstra transfer Darlinstone Dubar, a 6-foot-7 combo forward with a funky release. While the release can be weird, his 40% outside shooting isn’t. His more than five and a half attempts prove as much.

Then there are two highly rated younger players, Cameron Carr and Bishop Boswell. Both of them have very high upside but are likely to be fighting for back-end rotation minutes most of the year.

Barnes always schedules well, with six potential Quad-1 or Quad-2 games, including two true road games. There is just a single opponent under 300 in their rating, and that’s UT-Martin, which is in state. Barnes has always been willing to play the in-state mid-majors, and he’s done so again, scheduling Austin Peay, UT-Martin, and Middle Tennessee.

The SEC schedule does set up nicely if the Vols are able to navigate their road schedule. If the ratings hold, they’d be favored in every game but three: the road trips to Texas, Texas A&M, and Auburn.

THE RULING

The problem with the Tennessee offense for the last few years was lacking a go-to guy. That issue was resolved when they imported Dalton Knecht last year.

While it’s easy to plug this program into the top of the standings nearly every year, this version of the Tennessee Volunteers appears to be missing that extra scoring punch Knect brought them last year. Knowing Barnes, this will very likely be an outstanding defensive team. But who is the scorer here?

Lanier blossomed into the role at North Florida. However, projections from EvanMiya.com and BartTorvik.com are heavily skeptical of Lanier breaking out like Knecht did. Our projections above eclipse both by a significant margin. Torvik projects Lanier to average less than five points per game, while Miya projects him as the seventh-best player on the UT roster. Lanier will likely be used for his shooting and work more off the ball than on.

Dubar is similar, with a bit more size and slashing ability. According to Synergy, his top three play types were spot-ups, cuts, and transitions.

But for Tennessee to separate itself from the many good teams in the SEC and step into the potential national title contenders, it needs someone from this large group of floor spacing wing types to break out.

Maybe Cameron Carr is ready for a jump?

Carr is a former top-60 shooting guard with NBA lineage. His father, Chris, was a star at Southern Illinois and played for several years in the NBA and overseas. The younger Carr is a smooth shooting wing with a slight build, but he’s put on nearly 30 pounds since arriving in Knoxville.

Suppose it’s Carr, Mashack, Lanier, or even Dubar. In that case, the Volunteers will need a wing to step up to be a more primary option. Zeigler has traditionally struggled when forced to take on a larger offensive role and is better left to be an initiator. Taking the offensive pressure off Zeigler, who already will be carrying a big load, will be the key to unlocking the ceiling on this Vols squad.

My Results: Tennessee Volunteers — 3rd in Conference, 13-5

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.

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