Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Previewing the Ole Miss Rebels Men’s Basketball team. Can Chris Beard get his career back on track?
Giving a great coach great resources at a school without historical success is a good recipe for success.
Last season, the Rebels tried doing just that with some mixed results. They started the season 13-0 but largely did not play anyone. They played three top-100 opponents and only 66th-rated UCF on the road. They played a lot of bad teams in tight games, and the reality of that schedule settled in pretty quickly once they hit league play.
However, a record of 7-11 in the SEC improved over their 3-15 mark in 2023 and a 4-14 mark in 2022. Which is what led to Kermit Davis getting fired. But now the clock has started on Chris Beard, and there’s a sentiment within coaching circles that he may have a quick eye to pivot to a better job if things go well in Oxford. Maybe even if things don’t go well! Either way, this feels like an important season for Beard to reclaim being one of the game’s top coaches.
Previous SEC Previews:
9. Texas A&M Aggies, 9-9
10. Texas Longhorns, 8-10
11. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 7-11
12. Vanderbilt Commodores, 7-11
13. Oklahoma Sooners, 7-11
14. Georgia Bulldogs, 6-12
15. LSU Tigers, 5-13
16. South Carolina Gamecocks, 5-13
Ole Miss Rebels
Last season: 20 – 12 (7-11 in conference) #86
The Masses Prediction: 9th in conference, 8.6 – 9.4
SEC Media Pick: 9th in conference
Analytics Average: 10th in conference, 37th overall
Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
HEAD COACH: Chris Beard | 2nd Season, 20-12
Beard’s rise as one of the nation’s top coaches was a lot like the tale of Icarus, who flew too close to the sun, and his wax wings melted. Maybe Beard didn’t fall into the sea and drown, but ending up as the coach for Ole Miss might be the closest thing. Okay, that’s an unnecessary shot, but perhaps there’s still a little sting for the program that did Andy Kennedy dirty.
But while it feels like Beard has been at the top of the game for a long time, it’s only been since 2016 when he broke out in his first year at Arkansas Little Rock. He quickly ascended to Texas Tech and had them in the Final Four in his third season in charge. Two more years in Lubbock, and he jumped to Austin, where things were looking perfect until he was arrested and booked during a domestic situation. The Longhorns fired him, Rodney Terry took over, and Beard wandered the unemployment lines for three months.
The move to Oxford makes sense. It’s a rehab opportunity for both the program and Beard. A coach who burned himself hard while under the brightest spotlight now has his chance to reset in a place where the expectations are mitigated.
Improvement is one thing, but the next step for this program is consistency. Andy Kennedy had a solid run of success. Still, the forays into the NCAA Tournament were limited, and they usually only squeaked in when they did. Between 1997 and 2002, the Rebels made the Tournament five times. That run represents more than half the program’s total trips. So consistency is possible; it’s just a question of whether Beard can return the program to those expectations.
LOST PRODUCTION
Minutes: 42.03% | 3rd
Points: 34.99% | 2nd
Possessions: 39.80% | 2nd
Last year’s roster was weird. There were many spare parts, and the cohesive unit never fully clicked. Importing Allen Flanigan, Moussa Cisse, Jamarion Sharp, Brandon Murray, and Austin Nunez might’ve seemed like a good idea then. While the talent level overall was healthy, it was a mismatch of players.
Only Flanigan provided consistent production; the rest of the roster consisted of rotational players left to pass the ball to the guys who mostly returned.
Not all losses are bad losses, and the pieces last season never fully fit. Or at least enough to fully elevate the roster past what they were.
Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Bringing back more production than anyone not named Texas A&M is no small feat, as is convincing Jaemyn Brakefield and Matthew Murrell to return for graduate seasons. Brhave combined for 240 games in their careers, including 218 in Oxford. Together, they’ve accounted for 6,500 minutes and 2,500 points. In a conference loaded with experience, the Rebels’ roster might be near the top.
There are a combined 915 games and 21,000 minutes on the Rebels roster. On top of who is returning, the Rebels imported the fifth most experience in games and the sixth most in minutes played. Those rankings would be even more impressive had both Kentucky and Vanderbilt not imported their entire rosters with experienced players from the portal. But it’s at least clear that Beard intends to lean heavily into the portal to replenish his roster versus relying on high school recruiting. This is something he’s carried over from his tenure at Texas and Texas Tech.
Beard returns nearly 50 points per game while importing 87.9 points per game from his transfers last season, including two who averaged over 15 points at the high-major level.
The biggest addition is Sean Pedulla, a transfer point guard from Virginia Tech. Pedulla was a super high-usage guard while at Virginia Tech, though with the different options on the Ole Miss roster, he may be asked to do a lot less. If that’s the case, it would hopefully boost what can be considered an unimpressive efficiency on offense. Pedulla was unafraid to put up shots for the Hokies, with a 30.4% usage rate and 28.3% of the shots. Those are high numbers for a point guard.
With Murrell and Seton Hall transfer Dre Davis on the wing, Pedulla shouldn’t have to see usage anywhere near that high. Both have similar shot profiles with a lot of spot-ups, some cuts, and transition touches. But neither has much experience as a primary ball handler. They can still lighten the load. Jaylen Murray was the primary point guard a year ago. However, despite shooting the ball effectively from the floor, he was a bit of a liability on defense. Adding Pedulla to Murray should take care of any ball-handling needs.
David Butler II-Imagn Images
Chris Beard has not traditionally played a deep bench. His rotations can stretch to eight, but he’s ridden the top of his roster very hard in most seasons. He likes to find the top three or four options and ensure they maximize their time on the floor. Projecting those three players to be the three who have been the most productive at the high major level feels all too easy. The guard rotation looks obvious if you watch how they play and fit together. Pedulla, Murrell, and Davis should see the Lion’s share of minutes, with Jaylen Murray providing the most help, then to a lesser extent, T.J. Caldwell and Davon Barnes.
The front court is where things get more interesting. There’s only one true post player with size, and he’s a freshman. John Bol could see more minutes at the five out of necessity, but it’s hard to project a light-bodied 7’2 freshman to be ready to handle big minutes in the SEC. The rest of the rotation looks to be full of skilled combo forwards. Brakefield has been more of a combo forward throughout his career. Still, he’s stepped in to defend some post players where necessary. Making that move adds some offensive skill but also gives up a lot defensively.
Both Malik Dia and Mikeal Brown-Jones are intriguing skilled four-men, but neither provides much in the realm of rim protection. Ja’Von Benson could never get off the bench at South Carolina and only played menial minutes at Hampton, so that feels much more like a depth move.
Eight potential Quad-4 games might be a bit much, but lining up the Rady’s Children’s Invitational with Purdue or North Carolina State awaiting in round two was a prudent move. A semi-home game against Colorado State on a neutral site gives you more credit than just a home game.
Getting three of the bottom four teams in the SEC on the road will be either a blessing or a curse. From one aspect, easier road games are still tough road games, but the committee views a win on the road favorably.
THE RULING
A conundrum: the core you have has been the core of a team that has never been better than 86th in KenPom. Is that core any good?
We’ll find out the answer to that question this season. Matthew Murrell and Jaemyn Brakefield have been the core of the Ole Miss program since the 2021-22 season. That year, Murrell was a sophomore, a former top 40 recruit poised for a breakout season. Brakefield had just transferred back home after playing his freshman season at Duke. Both were projected starters on one of the more talented rosters to line up in the Rebel navy and red. The season was disappointing; the Rebels were hoping for an NCAA Tournament run, but they finished 108th in KenPom and 4-14 in the conference. Some struggles could be chalked up to bad luck, but things worsened the following season.
Of course, it was the coach’s fault, so he was fired. But even last year, with the same core again and a new coach, the Rebels were a disappointing squad.
Bringing back Murrell and Brakefield is a good thing.
Adding in good players from other mid-level power conference teams could also give Ole Miss the boost it needs or further prove a point that these players were on mid-level power conference teams for a reason.
Couple those questions with a coach best known for his defensive units but no longer with his defensive guru next to him and a frontcourt without any players who might be known for their defense. It all adds up to a math problem without an answer.
Ole Miss is a team that could break out. They could be a fabulous offensive unit, and Murrell, Davis, Pedulla, and Brown could all shoot lights out from three and defend just well enough to win. Unless Bol is genuinely ready to roll out in a big way with the roster they have, there’s no way the defense will be to the same standard we’re used to seeing under Beard.
Adjusted Defensive rankings under Beard as a head coach:
2016 – UALR: 33rd
2017 – Tech: 56th
2018 – Tech: 4th
2019 – Tech: 1st
2020 – Tech: 9th
2021 – Tech: 18th
2022 – Texas: 14th
2024 – Ole Miss: 141st
The drop-off was noticeable. Maybe Beard has some tricks up his sleeve to improve the defense, but without a top-50-level defense, it might be another tough year.
About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.
If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.
Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.
The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.
GLOSSARY
* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player
GP – Games Played
%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury
%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.
ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.
BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.
PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.
For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.
0 Comments