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Previewing the Arkansas Razorbacks Men’s Basketball team. How will the John Calipari experiment go in a new city?
What happens when you pick up the basketball program from one city and plop it down on top of another?
Well, we’re about to find out.
What happened in Fayetteville last year was close to disastrous. Eric Musselman assembled a wild collection of portal assassins, but the team never gelled. It went so poorly that he jumped at the chance to take the USC job after Andy Enfield left for SMU. Truthfully, Muss has never been a guy who sticks around long at any job, so the expiration date was nearing. He’s also spent a fair amount of time out west in all his job hopping. So despite his success in Fayetteville the previous years, he slipped out the back door and left the Razorbacks in a lurch.
Musselman was never someone I enjoyed writing about. I didn’t like the grandstanding and general weirdness that came with him. He was also a bit overrated, thanks to some success in March. He elevated Arkansas to a top-25 team, and credit should be given there, but with Muss, you knew what you would get.
From one of my least favorite people to write about to one of my favorites. Enter John Calipari.
Previous SEC Previews
5. Florida Gators, 11-7
6. Kentucky Wildcats, 10-8
7. Missouri Tigers, 9-9
8. Ole Miss Rebels, 9-9
9. Texas A&M Aggies, 9-9
10. Texas Longhorns, 8-10
11. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 7-11
12. Vanderbilt Commodores, 7-11
13. Oklahoma Sooners, 7-11
14. Georgia Bulldogs, 6-12
15. LSU Tigers, 5-13
16. South Carolina Gamecocks, 5-13
Arkansas Razorbacks
Last season: 16 – 17 (6-12 in conference) #108
The Masses Prediction: 4th in conference, 11.6 – 6.4
SEC Media Pick: 4th in conference
Analytics Average: 9th in conference, 33rd overall
Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images
HEAD COACH: John Calipari | 1st Season, 0-0
Few people in college basketball are bigger than Calipari. Say the name Cal, and outside of the Bay Area in northern California, most people will think of John Calipari. Coach Cal has been on the sidelines for over 30 years. He started at UMass, taking over a program that hadn’t made the NCAA tournament since 1962, and had it hitting 30 wins in his fourth season. By 1996, the Minutemen were in the Final Four.
Cal spun that into a stint in the NBA before returning to college. He was a born recruiter, and landing at Memphis in 1999 was a great fit. The Tigers won the NIT in his second year and were in the NCAA Tournament in his third year. In nine years, he took Memphis to the NCAA Tournament six times and nearly won a championship in 2008.
By then, it was time to graduate to a blue-blood gig, and, until a few months ago, Cal had one at Kentucky. The relationship had soured, and the parting was needed. What remains to be seen is whether Cal is done or not. It’s clear much of the league had caught up to Kentucky. Some of it was on Cal. Some of it was a sea change in the league as money got pumped into programs from the SEC Network. At Arkansas, Cal can prove he’s still got it.
What are Razorback fans expecting from John Calipari?
Most of them would take the past five seasons under Muss over what Calipari did in Kentucky. It seems most fans prefer winning tournament games over conference games. But while Muss had taken the Hogs back to where the fanbase thought the program should be, Cal is attempting to take them a bit further.
LOST PRODUCTION
Minutes: 90.04% | 15th
Points: 91.27% | 14th
Possessions: 91.31% | 14th
Like changes at Vanderbilt and Kentucky, Cal’s arrival kicked off a total overhaul.
He held on to one rotational player. The rest? All gone. Even if Musselman stuck around, he was just as likely to replace nearly everyone as the rumors indicated an unhappy locker room. However, five players had expiring eligibility, and eight others entered the transfer portal. In fact, it’s just Trevon Brazile came back.
Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Three of these four players are Arkansas Razorbacks now.
We’re back to the theme of the first sentence of this preview: What happens when you pick up the basketball program from one city and plop it down on top of another?
This roster is nearly identical to what the roster would look like if Calipari were still the coach in Lexington. Still, he’s not, and now everyone is wearing red instead of blue. Kentucky had 12 players on scholarship last year; two expired their eligibility, three declared and stayed in the NBA draft as underclassmen, and seven players transferred. Four ended up at other schools, and all four players were rumored to be transferring out before the season ended. The three who were likely to stay are now suiting up for Cal at Arkansas.
Those three at D.J. Wagner, Adou Thiero, and Zvonimir Ivisic, and each should factor into the rotation this season, with a particular eye on Wagner. Thiero is a jumbo wing who defends well and has an offensive game that has progressed but is still limited. Ivisic is a modern big man who showed flashes of brilliance a year ago but also had far more freshman bumps. But Wagner was a bit of the forgotten man. He is among the highest-touted players coming into the season. Still, Wagner never quite had the breakout his recruiting ranking would suggest. He was overshadowed by Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. But Wagner is still a player wired to score and could be primed for a breakout sophomore campaign. He needs to shoot the ball better, and a 29.2 percent clip from 3-point range isn’t enough.
Arkansas imported Johnell Davis, the top scorer off the Florida Atlantic roster for the last two years, to fortify its scoring. Davis increased his minutes and usage each over the previous three years, and his efficiency blossomed, a rarity for most players. He became quite useful no matter the offensive set, whether it was a pick and roll, a spot up, a handoff, or even in isolation. He and Wagner may have similar skill sets, but Davis shoots the ball enough to be a serious threat as a floor spacer.
The freshman class is a partial Calipari class. There’s the star guard in Boogie Land and two athletic wings in Billy Richmond and Karter Knox. All three were in the top 25, but in the back end, which could signal they’re more likely to be multi-year players. This is unusual for Calipari, but he’s already got a top-five player committed for next year.
Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Anchoring the defense will be Tennessee transfer Jonas Aidoo, the top-rated player on the roster according to EvanMiya.com’s Bayesian Performance Rating. In typical Cal fashion, there isn’t a lot of depth to the roster, but then he’s rarely gone much past an 8 man rotation. Nine players look like they’ll be primary contributors — provided nobody gets hurt — and three are freshmen.
Ivisic will backstop Aidoo, but with his skill set, he should be able to share the floor and complement him. Brazile has also spent plenty of time at the five in years past, so he could slot in there as well. In fact, maybe Calipari is the coach who can finally unlock the potential Brazile has teased throughout his career.
The biggest question may be how the freshmen are deployed. Projecting Boogie Fland to see the most minutes makes sense. He isn’t a natural point guard, but his ability to shoot the ball from outside and reliable handle makes him a natural fit to play alongside drivers like Davis and Wagner. Of the wings, Karter Knox is a little more polished and maybe more prepared offensively. But both he and Billy Richmond should factor into the rotation.
After those nine, it’s hard to see any more in the rotation. Melo Sanchez was a good shooter for a Division-II school, and the Hogs also added a three-star point guard in Casimir Chavis and an unranked wing in Jaden Karuletwa. Traditionally, Calipari doesn’t let those types of recruits see the floor.
It’s nice to see Calipari’s scheduling approach hasn’t changed with the move to Fayetteville. There are usually several quality neutral site games and nothing on the road unless something like the ACC-SEC Challenge comes along to force your hand. Otherwise, there will be a bunch of very winnable home games. However, a collection of Baylor, Michigan, and Illinois on neutral sites should give us clear expectations for where Arkansas is before they hit conference play. Everyone in Kentucky will have Feb. 1 bookmarked, and it will be interesting to see what sort of reception Calipari gets in Lexington.
THE RULING
The worst version of the Arkansas Razorbacks is still a good team. John Calipari will determine whether this is an SEC contender or just a tournament team.
Cal made his reputation by building high-level rosters and getting everyone to coalesce. But not just coalesce; he got them to defend at a high level. From 2006 to 2019, Cal fielded a defense outside of the top 40 in efficiency just once. In the last five seasons, Kentucky fielded a top-40 defense twice. In 2021, they ranked 35th, and in 2022, they ranked 36th. When the Cats defended, they were great. When the defense began to slip, so did how fans felt about Cal in Lexington.
So the question is whether Cal still has it on the sidelines.
He’s got the talent. He’s got players capable of defending. Aidoo is a great rim protector and has been at Tennessee. Brazile has shown he’s capable of being a menace on that end. And Adou Thiero was one of the good defenders for the ‘Cats a year ago. The back end of the Arkansas defense should be solid.
Florida Atlantic and Kentucky weren’t known for their defenses last year. Two of the three starters at guard aren’t known for being elite defenders, and the third is a freshman.
EvanMiya.com projects the Hogs to field a top-20 defense, but BartTorvik.com pegs them at No. 51. Haslametrics.com is even less bullish at No. 65. Those two rankings won’t cut it. If that’s the case, you’re looking at a disappointing season in Fayetteville.
With our ranking for them here, we’re more bullish. Miya projects the Hogs as a top-25 team, and that’s where I’ve landed. There’s enough scoring and rim protection, and Cal has experience putting good rosters together. Even if things went astray in recent years at Kentucky, he’s got everything he needs to be successful in northwest Arkansas.
My Results: Arkansas Razorbacks — 4th in conference, 11-7
About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.
If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.
Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.
The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.
GLOSSARY
* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player
GP – Games Played
%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury
%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.
ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.
BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.
PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.
For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.
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