SEC Hoops Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide

Oct 31, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Previewing the Alabama Crimson Tide Men’s Basketball program. Can Nate Oat’s team take the next step towards winning a national title?

Last March, Nate Oats and the Alabama Crimson Tide crossed off a big to-do item for one of the best programs in College Basketball to have never made a Final Four. On March 30th, they beat Clemson in the Elite 8 to advance Alabama to their first Final Four in school history.

Making the Final Four is no small feat. Since the inception of the NCAA Tournament in 1939, 99 different schools can lay claim to an appearance. Yet only six of those teams have played in as many as 20 Tournaments without an appearance in a national semi-final.

Things are different now in Tuscaloosa. Alabama enters the 2024-25 season as the prohibitive favorite to win the league. They’re the betting favorite to win the league and have the best SEC odds at a national championship. They garnered first-place votes in 15 of the 20 preseason lists we’ve tracked, and even in our biased ‘Masses’ tracker, they landed first in 89% of the ballots cast.

Alabama is the overwhelming favorite here.

Other SEC Previews:

2. Auburn Tigers, 13-5
3. Tennessee Volunteers, 13-5
4. Arkansas Razorbacks, 11-7
5. Florida Gators, 11-7
6. Kentucky Wildcats, 10-8
7. Missouri Tigers, 9-9
8. Ole Miss Rebels, 9-9
9. Texas A&M Aggies, 9-9
10. Texas Longhorns, 8-10
11. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 7-11
12. Vanderbilt Commodores, 7-11
13. Oklahoma Sooners, 7-11
14. Georgia Bulldogs, 6-12
15. LSU Tigers, 5-13
16. South Carolina Gamecocks, 5-13

Alabama Crimson Tide

Last season: 25 – 12 (13-5 in conference) #14 overall

The Masses Prediction: 1st in conference, 13.5 – 4.5

SEC Media Pick: 1st in conference

Analytics Average: 1st in conference, 5th overall

Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

HEAD COACH: Nate Oats | 6th Season, 117-54

The heat has been on Nate Oats before. He’s mishandled some personnel situations and often shows a severe lack of polish when handling the media. But as it is, Oats is a basketball junkie. He doesn’t want to be bothered with anything that doesn’t involve basketball directly. So you might forgive him if his player is an accomplice to capital murder, and he screws up his answers when asked tough questions about it. He’s probably only wondering if the player is going to be at practice or not.

While the job of a college basketball coach can often involve tricky political situations like what happened with Brandon Miller and Darius Miles two years ago, there’s no denying that what Oats has delivered on the court at Alabama has been nothing short of sensational. Before his arrival, Alabama had been mired in a slog of mediocrity. Tide fans might try to convince you they were horrible, but that’s not true. From 2007 until 2020, Alabama was never lower than 100th in KenPom but never higher than 27th. They spent many of those seasons floating between 50th and 60th. Never bad but horribly mediocre.

Oats has changed all that in five full seasons. In Year 1, the Tide finished 60th. Then, they jumped to ninth. And here are their finishes over the past three campaigns, 29th, 4th, and 14th. This preseason, Pomeroy’s ratings have Bama slotted in fifth. Oats has done all this while being very specific about shot selection. Under his direction, Alabama has never ranked lower than 19th in 3-point attempts as a percentage of overall shots taken. In doing so, he’s never had an offensive efficiency drop out of the top 15 in the country.

Alabama will score points, and they’re lethal when they get a defense to match.

Speaking of mediocre, the first six seasons in the 10-year look above are nearly identical in winning percentage. How they won a little over half their games varied a bit, but they were good for double-digit losses and close-ish to 20 wins just about every year. You can extend that graph all the way back to the early 2000s and see the same thing. Mark Gottfried found some modest success in 2005 but still ran a middling program.

Now, Oats churns out elite offenses that score enough to power the Tide to a tournament trip each season. And when his teams engage on defense, they’ve won two regular season SEC titles and two SEC Tournament crowns.

LOST PRODUCTION

Minutes: 48.79% | 5th
Points: 45.64% | 5th
Possessions: 48.39% | 3rd

Despite all the good vibes from last year, Alabama still dealt with a bit more turnover than you might expect. High-usage guard Aaron Estrada aged out, and the Tide watched five rotational players enter the transfer portal.

The portal’s most significant loss was hot-shooting wing Rylan Griffen, who defected to Kansas. Griffen knocked down nearly 40% of his 3-point attempts, making him an ideal spacer in Oats’ system. He was also a reliable enough team defender. But as you’ll see, Oats found suitable replacements in the transfer market. Nick Pringle and Sam Walters are the other departures, but they averaged 12.2 points and 7.5 rebounds. Both had trouble garnering regular minutes in Oats’ rotation.

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

When Mark Sears transferred from Ohio two years ago, I don’t think many would envision him becoming an All-American. We (smartly) projected him as a starter, and he stepped into that role, even becoming a secondary scorer as Oats funneled possessions through Brandon Miller. But with Miller off to the NBA, Sears went from a valuable role player to the main character, averaging over 20 points per game and shooting 43.6% from the outside. Sears has become the perfect point guard for the Alabama system. He’s steady in the pick and roll, excellent in transition, and lethal on spot-ups. Sears’ decision to return to Tuscaloosa is one of the driving forces behind Alabama sitting atop nearly every preseason poll.

As much as Sears’ transformation was impactful, so was the transition of North Dakota State transfer Grant Nelson. A fringe NBA pick, the 6-foot-11 skilled forward seemed out of place in the Summit League, but his transition to the SEC wasn’t smooth. Nelson had moments where he stood out, but just as many games where he disappeared. Consistency will be the key for Nelson this season since there were 13 games where Nelson didn’t score in double figures. He’s capable of making shots from distance, but for two years in a row, he’s failed to clear the 28% threshold from beyond the arc.

Also coming back is Latrell Wrightsell. He was incredibly efficient in a low-usage role last season. He also struggled with a concussion down the stretch of the season. And don’t sleep on the potential impact of Jarin Stevenson coming back. The 6-11 forward’s minutes increased as the season wore on, and he likely could have been drafted had he stayed in the NBA draft. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but his talent flashed enough last season that he could have some breakout potential this season.

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Alabama struggled on the defensive end a year ago. Clifford Omoruyi, the big man who transferred from Rutgers, should resolve many of them. According to EvanMiya.com, Omoruyi’s projected defensive BPR ranks 10th nationally and fourth in the SEC. Much of that owes itself to a block percentage that ranked third nationally last season.

Omoruyi doesn’t provide a real offensive threat, but that’s not a problem. Alabama’s system isn’t reliant on a genuine low-post threat. Oats pursued and singed Omoruyi to play defense, rebound, and score on put-backs and dump-offs. His presence also gives Nelson and Stevenson to spend more time playing as stretch fours.

Wrightsell should still receive plenty of minutes on the wing, but adding South Florida transfer Chris Youngblood supplements depth. Oats also scooped up Auburn transfer Aden Holloway, a former five-star recruit who played 20 minutes per game as a freshman, as an heir to Sears. In the short term, Holloway can check in to run the offense, freeing Sears to shift off the ball for breathers. While Holloway only made 30.2% of his 3-point attempts at Auburn, he shot the ball well at Prolific Prep and on the EYBL circuit. Holloway breaking out in Oats’ system is something that feels inevitable.

Youngblood was terrific for South Florida last year after spending three years playing for Amir Abdur-Rahim at Kennesaw State. Youngblood is a career 38.8% 3-point shooter and posted a 41.6% clip last season on more than five attempts a game. He was close to hitting 50% from 2-point range and 40% from long distance while putting up a 119.2 offensive rating.

How Oats deploys a very talented trio of freshmen will also be worth tracking. The highest-rated is talented wing Derrion Reid, who, at 6-8, is a jumbo wing early in his career. He’s more comfortable catching with his back to the basket than on the wing and attacking off the bounce. Still, his shooting range and defense have developed to the point where he should see the most minutes on the wing.

Then there’s Aiden Sherrell, a long and athletic post who can be impactful as a rim runner early on but is very likely a multi-year collegiate player. Point guard Labaron Philon has a playmaking flair, but getting into a reserve role for a year isn’t necessarily a bad thing for him. Last is Naas Cunningham, a former 5-star prospect who saw his stock drop over the last couple of years but still finished as a top-50 player.

This is a deep roster when a top-50 freshman may have little hope of carving out a role in his first year.

If you thought Nate Oats would change his approach to scheduling after it cost him five losses last year, then you don’t know Nate Oats.

Last season, the Tide’s non-conference schedule featured six games against teams that finished in the top 100 of KenPom, and they didn’t play anyone lower than 221st. This season is a repeat. Oats has no reason to line up soft opponents, even among those from the mid- and low-major levels. Currently, the Tide is set to face just one team lower than 200th in Pomeroy’s preseason ratings, and that trip to North Dakota is meant as a homecoming for Nelson.

Otherwise, there are three Quad-4 games, three Quad-3 games, and six matchups that project to land in Quad 1. Meanwhile, the SEC slate books them another six Quad-1 opportunities through home-and-homes against Kentucky, Mississippi State and Auburn. If the Tide plays up to expectations, its strength of schedule should nicely position it for the No. 1 overall seed come March.

THE RULING

The expectations are as high as you can get. So, the only way to go is down.

Let’s throw as much cold water on the Bama hype train as possible. When Bama guards, Oats has a contender. His teams are a terrible shooting night away from disaster when it doesn’t. Right or wrong, fan bases frequently define a season’s success by how far a team goes in March. But if you go by efficiency, the 2023-24 Tide was Oats’ third-best team, one that finished 111th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Fair play to Oats. Alabama’s supply of shooters and ability to space the floor helped spur a run that put the Tide over the hump. Along the way, they got some fortunate breaks, like an off-night shooting from North Carolina. But raising a banner to your rafters makes that nitpicking.

Taking the final step, however, means stopping opponents — not simply outscoring them. The good news is they’ve done it before, finishing third in defensive efficiency in 2021 and 2023. They don’t need to repeat that ranking, but cutting nets will be a heavy lift if the Tide are lower than 100th.

Is Omoruyi enough on the defensive end to give them the rim protection they missed last year? That’s the idea.

Offensively, they’re going to throw flames again. They were the No. 2 offense last year and are projected to be the top overall offense this season. With Mark Sears, Latrell Wrightsell, Chris Youngblood, Aden Holloway, the rest of the backcourt, and Grant Nelson, there’s more than enough offense for Alabama to win the SEC. Even with the analytics saying Auburn is a close second, I’m not sure it’s that close.

Alabama should win the league with even a modest improvement on the defensive end. If they can take a significant step forward in that department, watch out for the rest of college basketball.

My Results: Alabama Crimson Tide — 1st in Conference, 14-4

About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.

If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.

Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.

The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an indepth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.

GLOSSARY

* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player

GP – Games Played

%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury

%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.

ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.

BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.

PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.

For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.

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