Ranking Mizzou’s non-CFP bowl game possibilities

Oct 31, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz conducts a press conference after the end of a game against Alabama on Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024, at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

With two blowout defeats on their resume, an appearance in the College Football Playoff doesn’t seem in the cards for the Tigers right now. However, a strong close to the season can still book them a ticket to a nice postseason contest.

In 2024, the SEC has been struck with disappointment.

Mizzou, Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU — each of whom entered the season as top-15 teams in the AP Poll — all sit at 6-2. However, the latter three schools have each lost respectably. Out of the six losses between the Rebels, Crimson Tide and Tigers from Louisiana, only LSU’s 38-23 loss to Texas A&M this past Saturday was the only defeat by double-digits.

The Tigers from Missouri cannot say the same. In their only two games against ranked opponents, both of which were broadcasted on national television, they fell flatter than the Earth (which is flat to irrational folks, at least). In road tilts against Texas A&M and Alabama, MU lost by a combined score of 75-10. While the defense played well in the first half against the Crimson Tide, the offense turned anemic once Drew Pyne subbed in for an injured Brady Cook. The pressure to create positive momentum was too much on the defense, which eventually got gashed in the second half.

While Mizzou’s College Football Playoff hopes look extremely dim, there is precedent for teams in MU’s position making the committee’s final top 12.

However, if the Tigers wants any shot to compete for a national championship, a 4-0 finish to the regular season and chaos at the top of the rankings is required. Many still thought a CFP appearance was possible even after penciling in defeats against Alabama and Texas A&M, but reality has told a different story. With each of its final four opponents — Oklahoma, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Arkansas — each having at least three losses, there’s a good chance Mizzou’s best win by the end of the regular season is its 30-27 overtime thriller over Vanderbilt, who also has three losses. The opportunity to climb back up the rankings will mostly hinge on other teams at the top falling.

Should Mizzou be left out of the top 12 at season’s end, whether it’s because of its record or the superiority of teams further ahead in the rankings, there’s still high-end bowl games to play for. While the New Year’s Six bowls are now reserved for the CFP, trips to Florida and Texas won’t be so bad, either.

Here’s a ranking of each possible non-CFP bowl game Mizzou could participate in, starting with one that’s been very kind to the Tigers in their two trips to The Sunshine State.

Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31, Orlando, Florida)

Current projections: No. 13 Indiana-No. 25 Mizzou (CBS), No. 13 Indiana-No. 14 Alabama (USA Today), No. 13 Indiana-No. 14 Alabama (Action Network)

Last season: No. 25 Tennessee 35, No. 20 Iowa 0

Mizzou has experienced a ton of success in the Citrus Bowl; it capped off a stellar 1981 season with a win over a ranked Southern Mississippi squad, and the 2014 team secured its 11th victory of the season with a 33-17 triumph over Minnesota.

Since that 1981 contest, at least one ranked team has competed every season. The team could also reasonably take a trip to Disney World, which is neat. The game also has a humorous aspect to its name; the Citrus Bowl has been sponsored by Buffalo Wild Wings (2015-17) and Cheez-It (2022-Present). So the next time someone yells at you for eating chicken wings or Cheez-Its, tell them you’re eating citrus fruits.

Gator Bowl (Jan. 2, Jacksonville, Florida)

Current projections: No. 20 SMU-No. 7 Tennessee (CBS), No. 20 SMU-No. 19 Ole Miss (USA Today), Duke-No. 25 Mizzou (Action Network)

Last season: Clemson 38, Kentucky 35

It was in this game that the Tigers demolished a Bear Bryant-led Alabama 35-10 in 1968, which represented the Crimson Tide’s worst loss in a bowl game under the legendary coach.

This postseason contest almost always carries impressive prestige; since the inaugural Gator Bowl in 1947, only 14 games have featured two unranked teams facing each other. Mizzou could be in-line for a football-centric vacation to Jacksonville if it finishes 10-2 and get left out of the CFP.

Texas Bowl (Dec. 31, San Antonio)

Current projections: Texas Tech-No. 16 LSU (CBS), TCU-Arkansas (USA Today), Texas Tech-Arkansas (Action Network)

Last season: No. 22 Oklahoma State 31, Texas A&M 23

This bowl has tossed around Mizzou like salad; the Tigers fell to Navy 35-13 in 2009, then to Texas 33-16 eight years later.

The Texas Bowl is relatively new, having only existed since 2006. Only four ranked teams have competed, including Oklahoma State last season.

ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31, Tampa Bay, Florida)

Current projections: Iowa-No. 19 Ole Miss (CBS), Illinois-No. 16 LSU (USA Today), Michigan- No. 7 Tennessee (Action Network)

Last season: No. 13 LSU 35, Wisconsin 31

Mizzou has never competed in the ReliaQuest Bowl, but the SEC has won four consecutive games.

Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27, Las Vegas)

Current projections: No. 23 Colorado-Vanderbilt (CBS), Utah-No. 25 Mizzou (USA Today), No. 23 Colorado-No. 19 Ole Miss (Action Network)

Last season: Northwestern 14, Utah 7

At the current rate, Las Vegas could be SEC territory in a few years.

Jokes aside, there are far less interesting places to play a postseason game than Sin City. The quality of competitor has increased in the 21st century; from 1992-2005, only two ranked teams took their talents to Las Vegas (1995 Toledo, 1997 Air Force). Since 2006, only two games have featured two unranked opponents (San Diego State-Houston 2016, Wisconsin-Arizona State 2021).

Music City Bowl (Dec. 30, Nashville, Tennessee)

Current projections: Illinois-Arkansas (CBS), Michigan-South Carolina (USA Today), Nebraska-No. 16 LSU (Action Network)

Last season: Maryland 31, Auburn 13

If folks want a geographically closer city that’s sort of close to Las Vegas, Nashville is the next best option. The prestige drops off here, as only five ranked teams have competed since the bowl’s first game in 1998.

Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27, Memphis, Tennessee)

Current projections: West Virginia-Tulane (CBS), Cincinnati-Vanderbilt (USA Today), Cincinnati-Vanderbilt (Action Network)

Last season: Memphis 36, Iowa State 26

Mizzou is 1-2 in the Liberty Bowl; the Tigers beat LSU in 1978, then fell to Purdue in 1980 and Oklahoma State in 2018.

This game has produced fireworks over the past three seasons, as all three recent winners scored at least 34 points. That included Arkansas outlasting Kansas 55-53 in three overtimes two years ago after squandering a 25-point second-half lead.

Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27, Birmingham, Alabama)

Current projections: Coastal Carolina-North Carolina (CBS), Georgia Tech-Memphis (USA Today), Georgia Tech-South Carolina (Action Network)

Last season: Duke 17, Troy 10

Only four ranked teams have ever played in the Birmingham Bowl since 2006, two of them being South Florida in 2016 and 2017. If the Tigers finds themselves at Legion Field, they likely lost at least two of their final four games.

Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20, Tampa Bay. Florida)

Current projections: South Alabama-Wake Forest (CBS), South Florida-NC State (USA Today), Michigan State-Florida (Action Network)

Last season: Georgia Tech 30, UCF 17

This is where it would get really dark for Mizzou. This is the bowl game the Tigers landed in after another frustratingly middling 2022 season, and they dropped a clunker to Wake Forest 27-17. Mizzou would likely have to lose three of its final four games to end up back in Raymond James Stadium.

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