Pourover: It’s well past time to beat kansas

Dec 8, 2024 | Uncategorized

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NCAA Basketball: Kansas at Missouri
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Now that the border war is back, it’s time to get the rivalry started again by taking out the jayhawks.

College basketball matters. College basketball rivalries are what makes the sport so compelling. North Carolina-Duke. Indiana-Purdue. Kentucky-Louisville. Michigan-Michigan State. Kansas-Missouri.

No matter what happens to the future of conference realignment, rivalries need to be preserved at all costs. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State need to play. Pitt and West Virginia need to play. So it’s great that KU finally put aside the objections of Bill Self and set up the Border War series to be played again.

But here’s the thing. Missouri needs to beat Kansas.

And I’ll tell you why: because I don’t remember what it’s like to beat them.

I remember the game, I watched the game, I’ve re-watched the highlights a million times. But it was 12+ years ago. I’ve lost the feeling.

Someone recently asked me if I could only pick one game to win between the Border War or Braggin’ Rights and I said, out loud, Braggin’ Rights. The reason I think is I remember winning Braggin’ Rights.

And to give credit here, beating Bill Self since he’s been at kU is a lot harder to do than beating kU before Bill Self. And far tougher than beating Illinois under Brad Underwood. Self has an .809% win rate since taking over at kU. Most people don’t beat the Jayhawks, and since moving to the SEC Mizzou has only had three opportunities to beat them. On top of that, Self and kU are especially hard to beat in the non-conference, especially when they’re the favorite.

Meanwhile Mizzou is 4-3 against Brad Underwood at Illinois, Dennis Gates is 1-1.

Against kU? Mizzou has more losses by 20 points or more (6) than they have wins (4). The Tigers are 4-18 against Bill Self and Dennis Gates is 0-2. So not only has the series been unequal, it’s also been lopsided. I want to beat that team to the west, but I also want to have a competitive basketball team. Even with some recent lopsided Braggin’ Rights games, the series has been competitive.

The last three games, the rekindling of the series, have seen two blowouts and one game where both teams played pretty bad. The final score was close, but the Tigers only had a 26.6% chance to win when they were up 15-6 early in the game. So even when they were doing pretty well, it never felt like they were going to win.

Now it’s the 2024-25 season, Mizzou has invested in its roster and has the look of a team who can compete within the SEC. A league that’s arguably the best in the country right now, and per the analytics it is the best in the country.

Mizzou has Mark Mitchell, Tamar Bates, and Aidan Shaw. All top 75 prospects from the Kansas City, Kansas side of the border and none of whom were strongly pursued by that school to the west. Maybe that’s enough of the edge? After all, one of the main reasons why the Tigers are better against Brad Underwood is something we call the Javon Pickett factor. Missouri hasn’t had the Javon Pickett factor in the matchup against Self quite like Marcus Denmon since Marcus Denmon. There’s a long list of Kansas City area products making this rivalry better.

But making the rivalry better? Or beating your rival? Do the Tigers have enough?

I guess we’re going to find out shortly enough. The game starts at noon. Mizzou is good enough but they’re really going to need their best game, because kansas will be ready. They always are.

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