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Tigers will have to navigate physical and mental challenges the rest of the way
Some quick observations from week number eight of the college football season, served up in four quarter style. Legal Disclaimer: these views are my own and may be really dumb.
1st Quarter: Mizzou – The psychology of a season’s ups and downs
Not much more needs to be said about what took place in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. This team is really banged up and heads into the last month of the season with things squarely up in the air. Every game is winnable the rest of the way, but at the same time, tell me which of those remaining four games couldn’t also be a loss? I’ll split the difference and knowing how injured Mizzou is, they’ll find a way to win two games – most likely against OU and Mississippi State – and end the regular season at 8-4.
It seems funny to say that an 8-4 record would be disappointing at Mizzou, but that’s what happens when expectations get raised like they have. It’s a good problem to have generally speaking, but that doesn’t take away the sting for Tiger fans who’d dreamt of seeing their team in the inaugural 12-team CFP.
I think I’m most interested the rest of the way in seeing the psychology of how the team plays the rest of the year. Will they find a way to adapt and stay tight, or will adversity keep this team in struggle mode?
Maybe even moreso, I’ll be fascinated to see how the Mizzou fan base handles itself the rest of the season. Will Tiger Nation stay engaged and fully invested, or will some people pull back a bit after seeing Mizzou outclassed twice this year in their biggest moments? I hope everyone stays on board, but ultimately there’s no wrong answer here – fans are the ones footing the bill for their team, so they can act any way they want.
Eliah Drinkwitz will have a bit of a sales job to do the rest of the season, in my opinion, both with his team and with the fan base. He’s shown an ability to find the right buttons to push for his team over the years, but it can be tricky with the fans. He’s already aggressively challenged the Mizzou fan base this year, and it’s worked so far, but it’s a fine line to toe that can backfire quickly when the team isn’t producing. I think he’ll need to tread lightly going forward and not be too aggressive there.
2nd Quarter: SEC – Who’s winning this thing?
It’s been quite an interesting season so far in SEC action. I can’t think of anyone who predicted before the year that at the halfway point of league play, Texas A&M would be the lone unbeaten team.
Heading into November, the race for Atlanta is still wide open, with 11 teams having two conference losses or less. The top two teams, after all tiebreakers are broken, will meet in the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 7th.
So who is most likely to end up in Atlanta? I’m thinking anyone with 2 losses isn’t eliminated yet, but odds are pretty well against them. So for the sake of this exercise, I’m only considering teams with one or fewer SEC losses. Here’s a look at those top contenders and what they have left on the schedule:
Texas A&M 5-0 Remaining: @SCAR; New Mexico; @AUB; TEX
Georgia 4-1 Remaining: FLA; @Ole Miss; TEN; UMass; Ga. Tech
Texas 3-1 Remaining: FLA; @ARK; KY; @A&M
Tennessee 3-1 Remaining: KY; MISS ST.; @UGA; UTEP; @VAN
LSU 3-1 Remaining: BAMA; @FLA; VAN; OKLA
I’ll predict that A&M ends up no worse than 7-1, as does Georgia, Texas and LSU. How in the world the league office will determine who wins that four-way tiebreaker to determine the championship game participants? Your guess is as good as mine there, so we’ll see how that would play out.
3rd Quarter: National – Lack of upsets leaves CFP picture cloudy still
The CFP picture got no further clarity this past week, as there were no upsets in the top-25 to speak of. There were some surprisingly close games and a few near-upsets, but the favorites all took care of business in the end.
There were five top-25 teams to taste defeat in week #9, but they all came in games against ranked opponents, so there’s really not much to glean from this past week.
This week, there’s a handful of big games, but again unless there are some huge upsets, I don’t see the CFP picture becoming any clearer just yet.
Ohio State at Penn State sets up as a big one, but if the 6-1 Buckeyes pull off the win, they won’t necessarily knock the 7-0 Nittany Lions out of the CFP race. Louisville is a big underdog at Clemson, but an upset there would most certainly put a crimp in Clemson’s CFP plans. The other big national game isn’t one that would have been predicted as such before the season started – 7-0 Pittsburgh at 7-1 SMU. The Ponies are favorites of a touchdown as both teams are looking to stay undefeated in ACC play.
4th Quarter: Dealer’s Choice – Electioneering with the Tigers
Alright, this one is a bit of a stretch, but when you’re coming off a sand blasting like we saw on Saturday, you have to get a bit creative with the content.
In that vein, how’s this for a crazy (if not depressing) finding? It’s my opinion that Mizzou hasn’t had a successful and satisfying football season during a presidential election year since 1980 – some 44 years ago! I qualify “satisfying” as a winning season, and one that left Tiger fans happy overall and reasonably pleased with how things played out.
Of the 10 seasons that applied from 1984 through 2020, there was only one that finished above .500, but while the Tigers went 10-4 in 2008, it was a disappointing season based on the expectations coming in. The 2020 pandemic-shortened season was a pleasant surprise at 5-5 overall but I’d hardly go so far as to call it satisfying. Similarly, Larry Smith’s 1996 team went 5-6 and showed signs of promise, but I’m not calling a sub-.500 season successful or satisfying. Maybe you disagree?
Anyway, while we’ll reserve ultimate judgment on the 2024 season until it wraps up, here’s a look at the last 10 presidential election years and how Mizzou Football fared on the field:
2020 – 5-5 (Drinkwitz’ first year)
2016 – 4-8 (Barry Odom’s first year)
2012 – 5-7 (Mizzou’s first year in the SEC)
2008 – 10-4 (Pre-season top-5 team disappointed)
2004 – 5-6 (Mizzou’s last losing season until 2012)
2000 – 3-8 (Larry Smith fired after this season)
1996 – 5-6 (Actually was a semi-encouraging season)
1992 – 3-8 (Bob Stull would be fired after the 1993 season)
1988 – 3-7-1 (Woody Widenhofer fired after this season)
1984 – 3-7-1 (Warren Powers fired after this season)
1980 – 8-4 (Good season but it did end with a heartbreaking Holiday Bowl loss)
So, to recap, in the 10 applicable seasons from 1984-2020:
Mizzou’s combined record is 46-66-2…
Three Tiger coaches were fired after the year, including three-straight presidential years (1984, 1988, 1992)…
My takeaway? Let’s get this infernal election over with, please.
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