Mizzou’s season can still be successful. It can also still flop.

Nov 20, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Missouri v South Carolina
Eli Drinkwitz and the Tigers can still salvage this season. But it can also take a nasty turn. | Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images

A wide spectrum still exists for how this season will be remembered

As the Mizzou players and coaches walked off the field in Columbia East to the tune of a gamecock crowing for a millionth, and blessedly final time, a realization must have final hit home. A season that began with playoff hopes, if not expectations, would finish falling short of that goal. With a third road SEC loss of the year now in the books, what could have been a historic football season is now destined to be something less than that.

While a term like “historic” can no longer be used to classify the quality of the Tigers’ 2024 season, a wide spectrum of outcomes is still in play for how fans will look back on this Mizzou team in future years. After their third loss of the year, the term “great” is off the menu as well. Mizzou football has seen great seasons. 2013 and 214 were great seasons. Last year was a great season. The Tigers are no longer eligible for 11 wins or a top-tier bowl like the Cotton Bowl, so that distinction can be removed from the list.

So where can Mizzou end up along the spectrum? Let’s take a look, based on potential outcomes.

Missouri v South Carolina
Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images

How can 2024 be a good season?

Since we’ve already ruled out “historic” and “great,” what will it take for Mizzou football to finish with a “good” season? The quick and easy answer: Finish the regular season with nine wins. Everything in college football requires context. In its 134-year history as a program, Mizzou football has finished a regular season with nine wins exactly three times: 1899, 1969, 2008.

If the Tigers win their final two games of the regular season, they will accomplish something only three other teams have done (nine teams if you count the squads who won more than games.) Regardless of what goals the Tigers fell short of this year, it’s impossible to look at the history of Mizzou football and not consider a nine-win year as a good season. A 10th win in a bowl game would be a cherry on top and put this Tigers team in even rarer air in the pantheon of Mizzou football, but the season will be a good one regardless of the outcome of a second-tier bowl.

How can 2024 be a fair season?

First off, let’s define what “fair” means. “Fair” really just means “OK.” It means that the season isn’t lost and wasn’t a failure, but it also means there was a lot of meat left on the bone. Once again, context matters, but for this season to qualify as anything above “disappointment,” Mizzou is going to have to win at least one more regular season game and then win a third-tier bowl game.

If Mizzou drops either a game at the worst team in the SEC in Mississippi State or in the Battle Line Rivalry game against Arkansas, they are going to have to rally and win whatever bowl game they end up in to avoid the “failure” moniker. If this were to occur, the Tigers would still finish at the rare nine-win mark for only the third time in school history (because the 2008 team went on to win a 10th game in the Alamo Bowl.)

Losing to Mississippi State or Arkansas would hurt, the former because they are truly awful and Mizzou has still yet to beat them in the SEC, and the latter because it’s Arkansas and they suck. Winning a meaningless bowl game at the end of the year may not seem like an even trade, but at least the Tigers would be finishing the season on a high note.

Missouri v South Carolina
Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images

How can 2024 be a disappointment?

Many Mizzou fans might argue that the 2024 season already is a disappointment. Given the fact that the team failed to meet it’s most lofty of goals, in some ways those fans may be right. However, once again, context is king. Mizzou is not a blue blood program and they also compete in the toughest conference in the country not just this season, but perhaps in the history of college football. If any Mizzou team finishes a season with nine wins, it cannot be considered a disappointment.

So how CAN this Tigers team finish in disappointing fashion? By losing two of their next three games. It doesn’t really matter which game they win and which games they lose, but if the Tigers go 1-2 to end the year to finish 8-5, that would be a disappointment. For a team that was a preseason top 10ish pick with good odds to make the playoff, losing five games would be a big flop, point, blank and the period.

How can 2024 be a disaster?

When talking worst case scenarios, Mizzou losing their last three games to finish 7-6 would really be a disaster. Especially when two of those games are against the worst team in the SEC and the third or fourth worst team in the conference. Top that off by losing what will certainly be a dog**** bowl game against a underwhelming opponent with a number of Tigers choosing to sit out to prepare for the draft, and that would truly be a nightmare.

Now that my stomach is done churning at the thought, what is my prediction for how the team will finish? Well call me an optimist, but a good season is still on the able and I’m here to say I think the Tigers will finish strong. The relatively weak strength of schedule to close the season lends itself well to a Mizzou team looking to salvage what has already been lost.

Finishing 9-3 will, by my guess, lead to fewer draft-eligible players choosing to sit out the decent bowl game birth. A fuller roster will make it more likely that Mizzou performs well and wins their bowl game. Going 10-3 in 2024 sounds pretty good to me. It has to sound pretty good to the Tigers as well.

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