
The St. Louis native won’t arrive on a campus for another three years, but his early run of form hints at a lead guard who potentially meshes with the Tigers’ style.
Scottie Adkinson won’t arrive at a college campus for another three years. Yet it’s not outlandish to deem the point guard a priority for Missouri.
The Tigers extended an offer to the point guard in September 2023 — and more than two months before the freshman took the floor at Webster Groves. In May and July, when staffs could hit the recruiting trail, assistant coach Kyle Smithpeters made sure he popped up on the sidelines to watch Adkinson run with Brad Beal Elite. By late August, Adkinson found his name among the top 40 prospects in the 2027 class. A short time later, he ventured west to Columbia for two unofficial visits in a month.
Later, I’ll preach how it’s vital to keep a level head, show patience, and avoid creating a sense of inevitability around Adkinson’s game. Yet MU’s actions speak volumes about the early trajectory the 6-foot-3 lefty is tracing.
To Adkinson’s credit, his on-court performance belies his youth. Last season, he averaged 15.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.1 assists for one of the state’s top prep programs. He cracked the 20-point barrier seven times. And when you go beyond counting stats, it’s easy to see the volume is turned up about his potential.
Adkinson’s not a classic set-up man at this stage, despite a 17.0 percent assist rate. When the ball is in his hands, he’s prowling for buckets. However, Adkinson’s not a gunner. For example, he averaged 1.118 points per possession on a 60.9 true-shooting percentage for the Statesmen. That efficiency level would be gaudy for a big man, much less a young lead guard.
Yet it was fair to wonder how his productivity might translate against equally talented peers. His 20 games at the 15U level on the nation’s most demanding grassroots circuit should leave you giddy.
Once Adkinson hit the EYBL, the balance of his portfolio shifted more heavily to scoring. But he wasn’t a ball-stopper. His usage trailed Jimmy McKinney III — another prime MU target — by four touches per game. And check out where Adkinson finished among other high-usage players at that level: second.
After factoring in assists, Adkinson’s distribution was good enough that his efficiency (1.226 PPP) ranked third in his age bracket.
Digging into Adkinson’s play-type data underscores why coach Dennis Gates and his assistants are exerting such early efforts. Adkinson’s at his best when blazing down the floor in transition, whether it’s leading the break (1.111 PPP), sprinting the right channel (1.200 PPP), or leaking out (1.571 PPP) ahead of the pack. In the half-court, his profile suggests he’s flexible. You can deploy him in pick-and-rolls, space him out, or ask him to conjure up magic in isolation.
Again, it’s really early, but it’s easy to envision a symbiosis between Adkinson’s style and Gates’ scheme. Clearly, Adkinson’s fine blitzing the tempo and already at ease powering half-court sets. But Adkinson also finds ways to impact the game when flexed off the ball, a valuable trait at a program that will use its bigs as readers and connectors in Princeton-inspired sets. And if a possession bogs down, he’s shown a knack for creating in isolation.
How does Adkinson Score?
What I enjoy most about Adkinson is his preternatural creativity in pick-and-rolls. He wants to use his left hand. The defense knows it, too. And he still finds a way to get what he wants. It might be a spin move, an extension finish, or splitting two defenders. He’s also fantastic at manipulating pace after drawing bigger or longer defenders in switches.
Adkinson’s initial burst is, well, fine. He’s not routinely dusting defenders as he turns the corner. That only happens when Adkinson uses the backcourt as a runway to accelerate and hit a drag or butt screen early in a possession. However, he intends to play directly and apply pressure at the rim. Even when he didn’t convert, his free-throw rate (0.51) is absurdly high.
Sometimes, Adkinson’s better off when a screener doesn’t bring an extra defender to the party. His isolation play frequently unfolds in early-clock situations when defenders sort out cross-matches and the shell isn’t in place. And unsurprisingly, Brad Beal Elite tapped into Adkinson’s creativity late in possessions when a set has bogged down.
Again, Adkinson’s comfortable using either hand to initiate an attack, but he’s reliant on the left to finish plays. That’s not an issue right now, but over the next couple of years, the guard will run into defenders and schemes that force him to use his weaker right hand. When those moments arise, we’ll get a more complete look at Adkinson’s finishing portfolio.
That attacking intent carries over to Adkinson’s approach in spot-ups.
Typically, we talk about a spot-up in linear terms: burying catch-and-shoots forces hard closeouts, opening the possibility of one-dribble pull-ups, and eventually, assaulting the rack on a straight-line drive. Well, Adkinson prefers the blunt approach. When he catches it, the plan is to rip and go.
On film, you’ll notice Adkinson’s handle with his right hand is tight enough, and he has room to finish with his left. Often, those rim attacks unfold as a defense sorts itself out, meaning gaps aren’t entirely watertight and help defenders are out of position. Adkinson thrived when acting as a trailer and using his momentum to carry him into a drive.
I expect Adkinson’s instincts will always lean toward putting defenses on tilt off the bounce, but eventually, scouting reports will dictate diversity. The easiest adaptation is knocking down shots if defenders give him a cushion. Adkinson showed early promise this spring, making 8 of 21 3-pointers taken out of spot-ups.
Adkinson also displayed headiness as a cutter, particularly in dribble-at sequences where he could bolt backdoor as the defender watched the ball. He also proved potent during out-of-bounds plays, sealing his man or spinning off them to find space around the rim.
Those snippets don’t make eyes pop out of heads. But those looks are among the most valuable for Adkinson – right up there with his play in transition. Collectively, he averaged 3.6 rim attempts via cuts to the rim or attacks on the break, and they accounted for more than a third of his scoring. Several years from now, they might be the easiest way for Adkinson to make a dent in the scoring column when settling into life at whatever high-major program is fortunate to land him.
How does Adkinson create?
I noted earlier that Adkinson profiles as a score-first lead guard. At this admittedly early stage, his passing is practical. Case in point: a third of assists with BBE came in transition. His assist rate on the break (16.7%) also mirrors his overall performance. Adkinson gets his head up when he’s pushing and is decisive within a couple of dribbles to fire hit-ahead passes. And to a lesser extent, he’ll drop the ball off to a big who busted it on a rim run.
Facing a set defense, Adkinson tended to notch assists when attacking closeouts from spot-up situations. Once he warped a defense, Adkinson fed big men loitering around the rim in the dunker spot.
You might also wonder where his decision-making as a pick-and-roll pilot comes into play. Adkinson’s assist rate in ball screens is a paltry 6.0 percent, but that does not reflect selfish behavior.
Adkinson excelled at producing advantages, particularly from PNRs run in the slot. He routinely pulled weak-side defenders to the midline and pitched the ball out. Yet his teammates converted just 4 of 20 spot-up jumpers, which comprised almost half the looks he helped foster. Rollers weren’t much help, either. They were just 2 of 9 after Adkinson pinged a pass to them.
How does Adkinson defend?
Based on raw data alone, Adkinson also graded exceptionally well on the defensive end of the floor, finishing in the 89th percentile at the E15 level. His possession-level data reveals that BBE didn’t rely on him as an on-ball stopper. Instead, McKinney spent more time navigating ball screens or in isolation, while Adkinson spent more time as a team defender.
As you can see below, Adkinson performed well in almost every situation except for chasing shooters around screens. But he spent about 40 percent of his defensive possessions guarding spot-ups.
When playing in BBE’s shell, Adkinson typically tended to spacers on the weak side of the floor, with a slight tilt toward shooters holding the corner. That meant finding the right balance between remaining one pass away and rotating to the mid-line to help on drives. On film, several of Adkinson’s recoveries and closeouts aren’t the prettiest to watch, but he gets within four feet of a shooter with a hand up — which counts as a contest.
His fundamentals remain intact when he’s rotating to a shooter, often one taking a ball reversal in the slot. For a start, Adkinson’s more likely to be there on the catch. He’s also attentive to staying attached when his man fills the space behind a driver.
Appraising Adkinson’s handiwork at the point of attack demands some nuance. For starters, the sample size is small, roughly one possession per game. Next, it’s not always easy to discern the specific coverage BBE had him playing. Clips of him guarding high ball screens are prime examples. Switching isn’t the default setting. However, we don’t see Adkinson fighting over the top to remain attached or push the dribbler into drop coverage.
Instead, it looks like Adkinson dips under the screen. That’s fine if the guy he’s guarding isn’t the most potent jump shooter. But it’s doubtful that BBE’s coaches are assembling granular scouting reports to make that distinction.
There’s another possibility, though: thru coverage. Basically, the screener’s defender hangs back a step – like in drop coverage – to create an alley for the on-ball defender to pass under the screen. You can also think of it as Diet Drop coverage. If that’s the call we’re seeing here, then we don’t have much to quibble about. Adkinson’s generally successful at going under and – at worst – staying attached to the hip of a driver. And sometimes, the ball pressure he helps apply results in a giveaway.
He also did a bang-up job contesting when his man tried to use the sliver of space and time to attempt a pull-up jumper.
This is where I lodge an extremely modest quibble: we didn’t see Adkinson face older talent.
Sometimes, players of his ilk make a one-weekend cameo with their grassroots program’s 16U outfit. In some cases, it’s a necessity if there’s a temporary vacancy, such as when a member of that roster attends a USA Basketball mini-camp. But it’s also navel-gazing, and such roster machinations are out of Adkinson’s hand. There’s also no need to rush a developmental timeline that – so far – is going well.
I’ll also make an inelegant confession: finding the right tenor to discuss Adkinson’s game proves tricky. I’ve tried to be clinical — to acknowledge his immense potential while consciously trying to avoid setting unreasonable expectations. A player’s skill curve and development are never linear. Stagnation can happen. We watched Aaron Rowe grapple with that unfortunate reality ($) this summer.
But then I remembered that struggle only exists because Adkinson spent the past year playing at a level that would be on the edge of a bell curve.
And the longer he keeps it up, the harder it will be to restrain the tone.
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