Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Mizzou’s spring portal class appears to have checked most of the necessary boxes. Tony Perkins may have checked the biggest box while simultaneously flying under the radar in doing so.
Over the weeks leading up to the season, this series will dive deep into the players we see making a push for time in the rotation for the 2024-2025 Missouri basketball squad. The pieces read like a birds-eye scouting report. They skew more toward the offensive end of the court for two reasons. First, a player’s offensive metrics are more reliable than defensive data and less team-dependent. Second, it’s considerably easier to describe a player’s qualities with more well-known offensive statistics. As always, we encourage interaction from our readers. Please drop us a comment or find me on Twitter @DataMizzou.
The film credits are given to Matt Harris. Matt has provided all of the film used in this series, and plenty more video and analysis on every player that can be found on https://rockm.plus.
The Player
Tony Perkins has spent his career operating with a low profile. As a prospect out of Lawrence North High School in the basketball hotbed of Indianapolis, Perkins was rated as a three-star prospect by 247Sports and checked in at 314th nationally. His list of suitors matched that modest prospect status with offers from Ball State, Bradley, Purdue Fort Wayne, Miami of Ohio and Iowa. Solid, to be sure, but not befitting of a player who would turn into an All-Big 10 performer.
It wasn’t for a lack of effort.
Perkins averaged a robust 18.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.8 steals while leading his high school squad to a 25-2 record. His exploits landed him on the All-State team. Yet, Iowa was the only power-conference institution to give him a chance.
And take that chance he did. Perkins spent four seasons in Iowa City playing under notably even-keeled Fran McCaffery. As a freshman, Perkins logged five minutes a night in a reserve role, but his floor time jumped to 18 minutes per game a season later. His junior year saw him blossom into a crucial cog on both ends and a vet who could reliably log 28 minutes a night. Those first three years all saw the Hawkeyes land in the NCAA Tournament.
Last season, though, Perkins didn’t just soak up minutes. McCaffrey handed him the reins to Iowa’s offense — or at least the largest share in a role split among several hands.
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
While Iowa fell just short of making it four tournament trips in as many seasons, it had nothing to do with Perkins’ contributions. No, the man who flew under the radar his entire career capped off his Hawkeye tenure by averaging 14 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.6 per night to land on the All-Big 10 Second Team. Perkins ended his career in the Big 10 with a total score of 1,175 points. Decidedly impressive — no matter the background.
Perkins hit the transfer portal in March and visited MU and Oregon, ultimately opting for Columbia and handing Dennis Gates a vital piece for his roster. And I’m still not convinced the Tiger faithful are fully aware of his quality as a player.
The Numbers
Stats courtesy of Barttorvik.com
Let’s start with some trivia: Who was the last player to average more than 14 points, four rebounds and four assists per night in a Tiger uniform?
I couldn’t recall. That led me on a research mission.
The last instance of a Tiger checking all three boxes in a given season — at least from my review — was Anthony Peeler during the 1990-1991 campaign. Granted, Peeler averaged those numbers across his three-year career. There were some narrow misses in Sean East, Dru Smith, Melvin Booker and other memorable Mizzou hoopers. Still, it’s a notable feat even to those who don’t put a ton of stock in box score statistics — like yours truly.
But the more relevant question is whether Perkins can do it again for Mizzou? The answer will significantly affect the Tiger’s range of outcomes next season.
As you’ll note from the table above, Perkins never logged an incredible volume of minutes. He topped out at just over 30 minutes per game his senior season. Likewise, his usage rate was never at the level to describe him as a pure volume scorer. A 24.6% usage rate is healthy and certainly more than a role player. Yet Perkins filled box scores under those constraints with reasonable efficiency (109.1 ORTG) throughout his career.
Perkins is a quiet scorer. His 3-point shooting has never been decisive, dipping to a subpar 29.9% clip last season. Likewise, his 47.1 effective field-goal percentage is moderate and suffered a slight dip. Rarely will you see him turn glowing hot.
If he’s not a great shooter, how does he score?
For starters, he gets to the line. His 42.4% free-throw rate in 2024 would’ve been the highest among key contributors in a Missouri uniform since Jeremiah Tilmon in 2021. Perkins also habitually cashes in those chances, hitting nearly 80 percent of his attempts as a senior. Volume and accuracy are a heck of a combination.
Second, and just as importantly, Perkins is an absolute weapon in the open court.
Throughout Perkins’ career, more than 24% of his offense has come on the break, and his efficiency (1.042 PPP) grades out exceptionally well for that high volume per Synergy Sports. That performance has been stable as his minutes and role expanded for the Hawkeyes. Almost half of Perkins’ transition offense comes from him pushing the ball up the court, and his handiwork there (0.902 PPP) is commendable. Whether running the wings or leaking out, he’s as potent a threat as D’Moi Hodge was two years back.
The first thing you’ll notice in watching the film is that Perkins is not a burner and doesn’t possess exceptional burst.
Instead, Tony seeks out contact and displays solid vertical pop — traits that also carry over to his game in the half-court. Nearly 15% of his offense comes from attacking on dribble drives, leading to a quality 0.877 PPP — excellent marks for a guard. This manifests in pressuring the rim out of screen and rolls, too. Tony’s physicality should offer a much-needed boost for a team that struggled severely in generating freebies a year ago.
Yet there’s always a but involved. For Perkins, jump shooting remains a concern. Nearly 47% of Tony’s shots have come via that route and were worth just 0.976 PPP, below the Division-I median.
Interestingly, Perkins’ stroke is more than competent when he takes opportunities off the catch. His 1.088 PPS is above average, but the more significant issue is how often he takes those chances. Nearly 70% of Perkins jumpers are of the pull-up variety and are worth a subpar 0.750 PPS. Having that club in the bag is fine, but Tony’s shots off the bounce often find their way into the water.
It also goes a long way in explaining why his three-point numbers dropped a year ago. His pull-up usage ballooned to 72% from 60% over his junior season. Taking more inefficient shots naturally equates to a lower conversion percentage.
This concern doesn’t have to be an issue for Tony at MU, whose staff aims to pare back his pull-up usage. But it also doesn’t undermine the significant value of bringing Perkins into a roster that just saw two veteran point guards exit and only returned Anthony Robinson II. And when MU’s offense hums, it’s not a team that lives and dies by running actions that require those shots to be taken.
We’re still bullish on Perkins in a moderate usage ball-screen format. We know he can pressure the rim and create chances at the line. But he’s also an excellent — though not flashy — passer in those situations. He’s adept at making the right reads and delivering the ball on time and on target. These are the hallmarks of a quality lead guard.
Perhaps most importantly, Tony Perkins has the potential to be an elite defender.
Much of his value — in analytical terms — is derived from his proficiency on that end. Similar to how his transition offense jives perfectly with what Mizzou wants to do, so do his defensive attributes.
Perkins, a robust defender, has a talent for disrupting opponents. In recent years, Mizzou has often been outmuscled at the point of attack, with opponents pushing Mizzou guards off the ball or shooting over them. Similarly, Mizzou’s backcourt has struggled to stick to its assignments and recover possessions through takeaways. Those days appear to be short-lived with Perkins’ arrival.
He’s an absolute fiend for reading passes and jumping lanes. A combination of Anthony Robinson’s relentless ball pressure and Tony Perkins’ exploits as a de facto free safety could lead to a world of possibilities in a scheme that thrives on creating chaos.
The Role
There are no guarantees in life, but in terms of projecting Perkins’ role, this is as close as we can get.
With East and Honor out the door, the Tigers lost two players who led them in minutes played. Two years ago, Honor and D’Moi Hodge were atop the ledger. Mizzou badly needed a proven set of hands for a depth chart that otherwise featured Robinson, a sophomore, and a newcomer in T.O. Barrett. The Tigers didn’t just bring in a replacement-level option but a near-elite addition in Perkins’ commitment.
For those reasons, I expect Perkins to lead the team in minutes. Absent the “unspeakables,” I would be floored if he wasn’t top three. His demonstrated performance record, Mizzou’s need, and Gates’ track record nearly assures that. I would expect a slight dip in minutes played from last season, but my projection system sees him landing at 73.6% minutes played — a shade under 30 a night.
The usage rate will likely hold steady at around 24% or 25% and may pace the team. There’s always the prospect that Tamar Bates or Mark Mitchell takes a massive leap from a year ago, but should Perkins’ minutes and usage hold, I’d expect him to average 14-15 points per contest.
In reviewing the recent transfer comparisons, I nearly gave up. There simply aren’t many players with Perkins’ profile who transfer between high-major programs. That’s both good and bad.
On the negative side, seeing what his “type” usually does post-transfer is a little more challenging. It’s a positive because he’s a pretty rare commodity. Using the best comparisons I could find, those categories of players typically saw their minutes rise, their usage rate hold and their efficiency go up.
Tony’s minutes may well be capped by Gates’ belief in a deep rotation. Should his volume tread water while his efficiency increases? At least among the Mizzou fans, Tony’s recognition may finally match his proficiency.
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