Mizzou Hoops Player Preview: Caleb Grill

Oct 25, 2024 | Uncategorized

Written By

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Mizzou’s rugged sixth-year senior looks for consistency in his game and amongst his teammates.

Over the weeks leading up to the season, this series will dive deep into the players we see making a push for time in the rotation for the 2024-2025 Missouri basketball squad. The pieces read like a birds-eye scouting report. They skew more toward the offensive end of the court for two reasons. First, a player’s offensive metrics are more reliable than defensive data and less team-dependent. Second, it’s considerably easier to describe a player’s qualities with more well-known offensive statistics. As always, we encourage interaction from our readers. Please drop us a comment or find me on Twitter @DataMizzou.

The film credits are given to Matt Harris. Matt has provided all of the film used in this series, and plenty more video and analysis on every player that can be found on https://rockm.plus.

The Player

Caleb Grill is a rarity. The super senior will enter his sixth year of college basketball and effectively play with his fifth with a brand-new team.

No, Grill isn’t a new arrival, but he represents one of just five holdovers from last year’s roster that has been supplemented with ten new faces. There’s little doubt his experience and leadership will be called upon to calm the waters of a turbulent transition — and that’s nothing new for him.

A multi-sport athlete in the Wichita suburb of Maize, Kansas, Grill scored 1,178 points on the hardwood, threw for 3,122 yards on the gridiron, and won a state title in the high jump in high school. Grill has leaned heavily on these experiences as he fashioned himself as a hard-nosed defender and high-volume jump shooter during his career.

Steve Prohm brought him on board during the waning years of his tenure in Ames, Iowa. After his freshman season, Grill transferred to be with head coach T.J. Otzelberger in Las Vegas. When Otzelberger was hired by Iowa State the following offseason, Grill packed his bags and headed back to the midwest to Ames for two more seasons. After a tumultuous finish with the Cyclones, Grill ventured south to Mizzou. Unfortunately for him — and the Tigers — their season headed in the same direction after a fall against his hometown club, Wichita State.

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

While it was clear the Tigers lacked the magic of Dennis Gates’ first team in Columbia, that point was where the season truly took a turn.

Sure, Mizzou limped out of the gate, blowing a sizeable lead against Memphis and taking an indefensible loss against Jackson State. However, the ball club had improved to 7-2, with wins at Minnesota and relatively competent performance at Pittsburgh, signaling that traction may have been found.

It wasn’t.

Mizzou went 1-22 after Grill’s injury. This isn’t meant to rehash that considerable pain. Instead, it’s to offer vital context.

Had Grill remained healthy, he would’ve been exhausted at the end of the 2023-24 campaign. Instead, he was granted a medical hardship waiver, allowing him a sixth year. Dennis Gates didn’t think twice about preserving that option and returning Grill to ease the transition in what hopes to be a turnaround season.

The Numbers

Stats courtesy of Barttorvik.com.

After playing in 123 Division-I contests, Grill’s profile leaves little to imagine. The 6-foot-3 wing with a sturdy build is crafted in the 3-and-D mold. He’s a shooter who must be accounted for at all times and a player who makes his mark defending the opponent’s primary scoring options. In the modern era, this role is inherently valuable. Shooting and preventing opponents from shooting is the name of the game. Grill offers this in spades.

It’s interesting to note that in five seasons, Caleb has only once cracked the 24 minutes-per-game threshold — his sophomore season at UNLV. The explanation for that is relatively straightforward. During his first year in Ames after returning from UNLV, he competed for minutes with backcourt mates Gabe Kalscheur, Izaiah Brockington and Tyrese Hunter. The nucleus formed a Sweet-16 squad, and Grill narrowly missed the mark.

He would’ve cruised past that mark the following season, but he was suspended with seven DNPs, again narrowly missing the cutoff. Last year, his injury submarined any chances of hitting that benchmark. Yet, in the previous three seasons, he figured heavily into each team’s rotation when he was available. Through the first nine games last season, Grill ranked fourth among Tigers in minutes.

Staying true to the 3-and-D template, Grill’s offensive game is pretty simple. His career usage rate is a pedestrian 14.6%, but it rose to 20.9% early last year. We can explain part of the increase to an expansion in his game — but most of it can be chalked up to necessity. Grill’s profile hints at what he does best: connect on jumpers.

Most of Grill’s attempts come off the catch, and he’s a 33.9% shooter from deep for his career. Now, that number might leave you wanting. That’s understandable. Grill is also a very streaky shooter. He’s knocked three or more triples in 28 games — nearly a quarter of his appearances — and made 54.6% of his 3-pointers in those outings. That is absurd.

There’s also a downside. In the other 95 games, Grill was just 73 of 347 from behind the arc. That’s 21.0% percent. So, Grill’s game personifies feast or famine.

We witnessed that trend last season, too. Grill started the campaign making just 29% of 3s and only had two games where he made more than three. That bolsters the familiar themes we see in his metrics. Per Synergy Sports, roughly 84% of Grill’s jumpers have come off the catch and are worth 1.018 points per possession. That’s sold but unspectacular. Unsurprisingly, he’s most efficient when no hand is in his face.

Grill can be subtly impressive as a shooter off the bounce, though it’s in minimal quantities. His actual value won’t be fully tapped until the jump shot becomes a consistent weapon.

Most of his work is spotting up behind the arc, running in transition and being active as a cutter. All three of these offensive options play off the jump shot. Ironing out the consistency issues will make his value working off the ball even higher, given more opportunities and space.

Turning to the other side of the ball, Grill excels in many areas. Notably, his 12.8% rebound rate is excellent for a guard. It improved year over year, landing at 15.1% and 24.0% in the last two years, respectively. Having a perimeter player who can crash the glass with such success is a luxury Mizzou could use, given their recent problems.

Grill is also a sound defender. He shows maturity and skill in closing out would-be jump shooters.

He takes opponents out of their game and requires them to put the ball on the floor. While this yielded middling results a year ago, having a defender who can force opponents to drive for their points plays into Mizzou’s “sticky hands” scheme. Every dribble is an opportunity for a takeaway.

The Role

There’s little doubt about the esteem Dennis Gates holds for Caleb Grill. Between his significant playing time a year ago and preserving the opportunity for Caleb to come back — even after last season’s debacle — is prime evidence.

Slotting Caleb Grill into starter-level minutes is relatively easy, even if the opening rotations may vary. I see his minutes landing at 58.9% — again, just shy of 24 minutes per contest — which would rate fourth on the team. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s Mizzou’s depth at the wing position. Tamar Bates, Annor Boateng, Trent Peirce, Aidan Shaw and Marcus Allen could all jockey for reps. Yet Grill has experience, trust, a combustible jumper, and reliable defense — tools and traits that make it reasonable to think he logs heavy minutes.

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

As for the rest of his profile, I see his usage rate dropping into the high teens. Last year’s team lacked proven offensive creators, and it showed. Grill had to pick up the slack.

This year, the Tigers will have to scale back usage for some of their additions, which should ease Grill’s workload. I see him averaging around 18% and settling comfortably into the role mentioned above.

Should he maintain his career shooting efficiencies, he projects to score between seven and nine points per game. But like any golfer will tell you, if he can achieve a higher level of consistency, the ceiling becomes much higher.

PPP: Points Per Possession
Min %: This is simply the percentage of minutes played by a given player.
Usage %: A measure of personal possessions used while player is on the court. This includes making a shot, missing a shot coupled with a defensive rebound and a turnover.
eFG%: Same as traditional FG% with the added bonus of 3-point shots given 50% more weight to account for additional point.
OR%: The percentage of possible offensive rebounds a player gets.
DR%: The percentage of possible defensive rebounds a player gets.
AST%: Assists divided by field goals made by player’s teammates while on the court.
TO%: The percentage of personal possessions a player uses on turnovers.
FTR%: A rate which measures a player’s ability to get to the free throw line.
FT%: Free Throw shooting percentage.
2PT%: 2-point field goal percentage.
3PT% 3-point field goal percentage.

You Might Also Like

Injuries, obstacles mounting for Mizzou Wrestling

Injuries, obstacles mounting for Mizzou Wrestling

Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation The Tigers are currently without their three expected key contributors, two gone for the rest of the season For the second straight year, Mizzou Wrestling has begun its season with high hopes and expectations before seeing the year take a...

read more
Commute: Who is declaring for the NFL draft?

Commute: Who is declaring for the NFL draft?

The Morning Commute for Friday, January 3rd, 2024. Welcome to the Morning Commute We all need our moment, right? That’s the benefit of social media, it allows every one to play the title role in their own script. With that said I’m not sure I fully understand...

read more
Defending champs blow out Mizzou WBB

Defending champs blow out Mizzou WBB

Karen Steger Action Photography Tigers fall to South Carolina 83-52 Mizzou WBB (11-5, 0-1 SEC) competed early on with No. 2 South Carolina (13-1, 1-0 SEC), but faltered in the second half as the talent discrepancy showed. South Carolina ended the first quarter ahead...

read more

0 Comments