Abigail Landwehr/Columbia Daily Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK
There comes an inflection point in every player’s career, and it might arrive this season for the combo forward.
Over the weeks leading up to the season, this series will dive deep into the players we see making a push for time in the rotation for the 2024-2025 Missouri basketball squad. The pieces read like a birds-eye scouting report. They skew more toward the offensive end of the court for two reasons. First, a player’s offensive metrics are more reliable than defensive data and less team-dependent. Second, it’s considerably easier to describe a player’s qualities with more well-known offensive statistics. As always, we encourage interaction from our readers. Please drop us a comment or find me on Twitter @DataMizzou.
The film credits are given to Matt Harris. Matt has provided all of the film used in this series, and plenty more video and analysis on every player that can be found on https://rockm.plus.
The Player
Aidan Shaw now represents the most-tenured player on Missouri’s roster. The high-flying junior — known for his aerial theatrics — also represents a player at his make-or-break moment.
Shaw’s commitment to Mizzou transpired in September of 2021, and he is now the lone holdover from the Tigers’ prior coaching regime. But it wasn’t always that simple. The product of Blue Valley High School in Overland Park opened up his commitment after Cuonzo Martin’s time at Mizzou had come to a close. Dennis Gates quickly re-engaged and landed the services of the top-60 prospect that boasted offers from many high-level Division I programs.
Shaw’s career at Mizzou got off to a relatively promising start. Representing the lone freshman on a 25-win team, Shaw was eighth in the team in minutes played. He frequently found himself inserted in the season’s most significant moments. With his elite athleticism often on display, Shaw proved to be a vital role player in the season’s success.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Entering his sophomore campaign, Shaw was called upon to fortify Mizzou’s defense and to increase his offensive punch. The results were mixed. Shaw certainly had his moments in an otherwise forgettable season. He scored in double digits three times during SEC play — all in close losses.
But there were long stretches of disengagement. For example, Shaw logged less than ten minutes on the court in four league contests despite Mizzou’s never-ending search for answers. That inconsistency brings us to what should represent a significant season in Shaw’s career at Mizzou.
Aidan has been a great ambassador for the program and is, by all accounts, a valued teammate. His performance this season will go a long way in determining how he is remembered for his play on the court.
The Numbers
Stats courtesy of Barttorvik.com.
If I told you Shaw has been highly efficient on offense while upping his minutes year over year, you might ask, “What’s the problem?”
After all, he brings a lengthy frame and elite leaping ability. Well, it’s what goes into the minutes that causes the hangup. Shaw’s usage rate of 11.5% — a slight dip from 11.7% as a frosh — is low. Incredibly low. Put another way, Shaw only finished one out of every 10 possessions for MU when he was on the floor.
A broader context also helps. According to my research, 504 players at high-major schools played at least 16 minutes per game, and Shaw’s usage ranked 498th. Put bluntly, Shaw was practically invisible when Mizzou had the ball.
True, when he got his chances he typically converted. Often, those opportunities came by cutting off the ball to offer an efficient — and high-flying — target for lobs. But other than that? Aidan was practically a non-participant.
In sum, Aidan logged 104 possessions used in Missouri’s offense, and 41 of those touches came from cuts. Most of those were lobs. Another 15 possessions were put-backs, and eight came from broken plays. That means almost two-thirds of Shaw’s offense saw him as the goal-line option. To his credit, he did those things very well and posted superlative efficiency numbers in each category.
That’s not always a bad thing, but Shaw was frustratingly absent most nights for a team searching for contributions in any given way.
Perhaps nowhere was it more glaring than his unwillingness to shoot the ball. In his first year, Aidan offered a glimpse of hope, converting 23 shots off the catch into 23 points. In his second year? He attempted all of two catch-and-shoot jumpers. A hesitancy to let it rip evolved into a full-on personal red light. Below is an exhaustive highlight of every shot he attempted off the catch in 2023-24.
In some ways, Aidan profiled as a true center. There’s the inability — or outright unwillingness — to hoist up open jumpers. There’s the elite rim finishing, including competent work as a roller out of ball screens. (You can see that in the clips below). At the other end, he’s a competent rebounder and rim protector.
It would be a welcome development if Shaw were willing to expand his game. He cannot create on the ball — most players his size do — but he has the opportunity to offer a much broader base. Whether it’s the desire to shoot open jumpers off the catch or to execute short rolls out of ball screens with a little push shot, there are a multitude of ways for him to become more involved. We’ve said he should look westward at Kansas’ KJ Adams as a template.
While this year’s roster projects to have more — and hopefully better — higher usage options, being able to offer more to the team on offense would prove valuable.
The reason for the insistence on becoming a viable offense player is simple: Shaw’s defense is worth playing. His frame and vertical pop are ideal for an up-tempo team. Shaw has proven to be a menace when providing teammates with defensive assistance. Whether he shoots over from a weakside help position or switches onto a different position, he does more than hold his own.
If there is an area to critique defensively, it may be his ability to defend players when left on an island. It’s not a weakness, necessarily. But rather an area for improvement.
The Role
While this preview may seem negative, it isn’t meant to be this way.
Shaw possesses all the tools to play — a lot. However, there comes a point where potential must translate into reliable production nightly. Last season, Shaw’s positional group was in a state of transition, and there was an opportunity for him to take firm hold of the job. That didn’t happen.
Mizzou’s roster has undergone a fairly significant makeover. If Aidan is seen as a true center, newcomers such as Josh Gray, Peyton Marshall and Trent Burns figure to compete for minutes there. If he’s seen more as a hybrid forward, Mark Mitchell, Marcus Allen and Jacob Crews will compete with Trent Pierce, who also seeks to reestablish himself. Mitchell and Allen both profile as flexible switch defenders in MU’s system.
It’s no longer enough for Aidan to garner spot duty by putting out fires on defense and occasionally chipping in on offense. Too many hungry mouths have accumulated to settle for a part-time player.
Denny Medley-Imagn Images
As it stands, I see Shaw in the mix with players like Pierce and Allen vying for a spot at the back end of Mizzou’s rotation. My projections have him at 12th in minutes due primarily to his hesitancy to up his offensive engagement.
However, should that mentality — and production change — Aidan can shoot well up the depth chart. His menacing defense and otherworldly rim-finishing are characteristics tailor-made for a team that figures to play at top speed for 40 minutes. He has to commit to doing things his top competitors will be willing to do. If he does, Aidan can genuinely deliver on the promise that he’s had since he first pledged to the Tigers three years ago.
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