
It’s time to beat Mississippi State.
Now that the stupid Playoff is no longer an option for our Missouri Tigers, it’s time to focus on more important things.
Like beating teams that you’ve never beaten as a card-carrying SEC member before.
Such as Mississippi State.
Missouri accomplished this feat earlier this year when they finally took down Auburn. Alabama was never close and that square will have to remain blank for another year. But Mizzou can get one step closer to SEC Victory black-out bingo by going on the road and beating the sixth-worst P4 team in the world.
Here’s my preview from July. At the time you could squint and see a path to six wins but I predicted a terrible year and, lo, the fortune came true. Let’s see just exactly how bad it is:
When Missouri Has the Ball
How bad is this Mississippi State defense? Well, they’re starting two freshmen on the defensive line. Does that give you a decent idea? Oh, and for good measure, they’re also starting three second-year players in the secondary. Yeah, it’s bad.
97th in defensive SP+ bad. 127th in rush defense bad. 134th – as in, LAST – in pass defense bad. As I’m writing this I’m scrolling through defensive stats to find anything that they’re at least average at and I have Yards Per Successful Rush ranked 31st and Power Success Rate at 29th. That’s it. Everything else is danger-zone levels bad.
I’m not sure if Co-defensive coordinators Coleman Hutzler and Matt Barnes will stick around – either by choice or by force – but Head Coach/Offensive Coordinator Jeff Lebby’s offenses make even great defenses look terrible, and the Bulldogs defense is the opposite of great.
But, hey, at least the keys to the game are easy!
Run The Dang Ball
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Jeff Blake-Imagn Images
Why not? It’s what Mizzou is good at and it helps keep Mississippi State’s offense on the sideline. Plus Nate Noel seems to be on a heater since his return from injury, and there’s, like, four guys that I’d like to see carry the ball this year. Plus Mississippi State is allowing opponents to average a 50% success rate on the ground. Let’s set the goal there.
Throw For Funsies
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Mizzou averaged a 52% success rate and 265 yards against Buffalo. They averaged a 54% success rate and 265 yards against Boston College. And they averaged a 44% success rate and 230 yards against UMass.
All of those teams have better passing defenses than Mississippi State.
It doesn’t have to get crazy or reckless but let’s enjoy Theo Wease and Luther Burden while we still have them. I’d love to see a 50% passing success rate.
Finish Your Dang Drives
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The Bulldogs are allowing 4.5 points per scoring opportunity. If Mizzou keeps at its current pace of scoring opportunities, that should be 7 opportunities at 4.5 points which equals 32 points. Round it up to 35? Yeah, that sounds good.
When Mississippi State Has the Ball
Mississippi State is starting transfers at running back, wide receiver, tight end, and four of their five offensive line slots and it’s not going great. They rank 67th in the country mostly off of a Top 20 explosiveness and decent running numbers. But they allow some of the worst havoc numbers in the country, are one of the least efficient teams around, commit a ton of penalties, and almost exclusively throw it to their outside receivers on deeper passing concepts. Bottle up the run, force true freshman Michael Van Buren to make bad decisions, and profit.
HAVOC
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Jeff Blake-Imagn Images
TFLs, sacks, passes defensed, interceptions…whatever you want to do this Bulldog offense tends to allow you to do it. State’s offensive tackles, in particular, have really bad pressure and sack rates attributed to them specifically. Plus, Michael Van Buren enjoys throwing bad interceptions! The best way to disrupt an warp-speed offense is to put it behind the chains and this defense can do just that. Let’s shoot for a 25% havoc rate.
Limit The Points
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Jeff Blake-Imagn Images
For all of their warts Lebby’s offense does pretty well at maximizing points when they get the chance. If Mizzou has any intention of achieving the elusive goal of a conference road win against a funky offense, this has to be key. Even if Mississippi State achieves 8 scoring opportunities, they need to hold them to at least 3.5 per opportunity (or 28 points).
Conclusion
Look… it’s Missouri football under Eli Drinkwitz, so it’s going to be uncomfortably close and you’re going to be mad. And that’s before we consider it’s an offense that is built to take advantage of Mizzou’s weaknesses, and it’s on the road. Just win, that’s all. The goal now is to get 9 wins with a chance of 10 after the bowl. It doesn’t matter how you get there, just get there.
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