The past two contests in St. Louis have been blowouts, with each side taking a win. Can the 2024 edition be competitive?

It’s been a little while since the last competitive Braggin’ Rights game on the hardwood.

The past three seasons have seen the victor dominate by at least 20 points — the Illini did so in 2021 and 2023, while the Tigers announced their legitimacy as an NCAA Tournament team with a 93-71 destruction of UIUC in 2022. The last close contest came in 2020 at Mizzou Arena, when MU overcame 36 points from Ayo Dosunmu to pull off an 81-78 upset over then-No. 6 Illinois. The Tigers would jump all the way to No. 16 in the ensuing AP Poll.

This year, both teams appear to be on a path towards the Big Dance, although the UIUC’s path seems to be a little less murkier than Mizzou’s. Nevertheless, both teams have proven worthy of Top 25 consideration numerous times this season, and that should, on paper, create an exciting contest on Sunday.

Illinois @ Missouri

When | 12:00 p.m. CT

Where | Enterprise Center; St. Louis, Mo.

TV | ESPN

Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199

Twitter | @MizzouHoops

ESPN win probability | 28.1% chance

The Starters

Mizzou (9-1)

G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 11.5 PPG)

G: Tamar Bates (SR, 12.3 PPG)

G: Tony Perkins (SR, 7.8 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 13.5 PPG)

C: Josh Gray (SR, 3.2 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Trent Pierce (SO, 8.8 PPG)

Illinois (7-3)

G: Kylan Boswell (JR, 10.1 PPG)

G: Kasparas Jakucionis (FR, 16.1 PPG)

G: Tre White (JR, 9.1 PPG)

F: Will Riley (FR, 13.5 PPG)

C: Tomislav Ivisic (FR, 14.2 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Ben Humrichous (SR, 8.3 PPG)

Note: These starting lineups are projected.

Get to know Illinois: On the cusp of national contention yet again

Illinois is a part of a small group of teams that have been seeded highly in the NCAA Tournament many times, yet haven’t won a national championship. Since the modern March Madness format was implemented in 1985, the Illini have achieved a No. 4 seed or higher 15 times. The only other teams that have been seeded that highly without winning a title since 1985 are Purdue (16), Oklahoma (15), Gonzaga (12) and Pittsburgh (10).

Entering 2024, Illinois didn’t seem primed to make another run through March, although the Illini were a projected 5-7 seed by bracketologists before the season. They’ve experienced an ups and downs facing a tough pre-January schedule that featured four Top 25 teams: Illinois lost a track meet to Alabama in Birmingham, handily beat Arkansas in Kansas City, survived Wisconsin at home and almost beat top-ranked Tennessee at home, but a buzzer-beating layup by Jordan Gainey gave the Volunteers a thrilling win in Champaign.

So far, Illinois has relied heavily on six players — Kasparas Jakucionis, Kylan Boswell, Tre White, Will Riley, Tomislav Ivisic and Ben Humrichous have played just over 80% of available minutes and have scored almost 85% of the team’s points this season. However, that core six provides a lot that should have the Illini back in the Big Dance come March.

What Boswell lacks offensively, he makes up for on the other end. The Arizona transfer guard is a lockdown defender; his hands are always active, and he erases screens extremely well. He helped hold Mark Sears to zero points, Boogie Fland to 2/12 shooting and Chaz Lanier to 5/17 shooting. Jakucionis, a freshman from Lithuania, has been one of the best first-year players in a year where freshman are balling out across the country. He’s averaged 16 points, six rebounds and six assists per game, providing elite scoring and facilitating from the perimeter.

Ivisic, a freshman big from Croatia, has stretched defenses thin all season. Although he hasn’t been efficient from three-point range (16/46), he’s been more than willing to let it fly. His best performance of the season came when he outdueled his twin brother, Zvonimir, shooting 6/9 from beyond the arc against Arkansas. Ivisic has also grabbed at least 10 rebounds in all but three games.

Elsewhere, White, a Lousville transfer, and Riley, a five-star freshman, have provided solid scoring punches at the combo guard spot. Humrichous, an Evansville transfer, has been a go-to three-point shooting option for the Illini; however, he’s missed 15 of his last 18 attempts from beyond the arc.

The funny thing about Illinois is that, heading into the season, it was supposed to be great on offense and porous on defense.

“Right now, a seventh-grade middle school team might hang 100 on us,” Underwood said back in October. “We stink and we foul too much.”

Through 10 games, they’ve been good on both ends of the floor. The offense has been strong at times, but has shown holes, too. The defense hasn’t been perfect, but it’s been far better than many, including the team’s own head coach, likely expected.

3 Keys to the Game

Get physical on defense

One of the most dangerous parts of the Illini offense is the pick-and-roll/pop duo of Jakucionis and Ivisic. Since both are versatile offensively, there’s no easy solution; Jakucionis can shoot, dribble and pass effectively. Ivisic is more than a capabale outside shooter and has a soft touch around the basket. The Illini have run a lot of high pick-and-rolls, and many have worked.

However, there are a few potential mitigators of UIUC’s impact on pick-and-rolls/pops, as shown by three of Illinois’ opponents. While the Illini took down Oakland, the Grizzlies held them to 66 points with the help of an amorphus zone that threw Illinois for a loop offensively; Jakucionis committed five turnovers in the contest. Alabama’s guards got physical with Jakucionis at the point of attack, which played a part in the freshman turning the ball over six times. In Northwestern’s surprising overtime defeat of Illinois, the Wildcats sent the big man guarding the screener to the level of the screen instead of dropping backwards.

This is where Mizzou could run into some trouble. Josh Gray isn’t the stretchiest of big men, as one of his defensive strengths lie in protecting the basket. It’s a big reason why he was able to give Hunter Dickinson so much trouble against Kansas; Gray was able to match up physically with the star big man in the paint, who thrives off of easy looks around the basket. There weren’t many easy looks to be found against Gray. Where Gray and MU’s other bigs could find success against Ivisic is around the basket. Although Ivisic is crafty both shooting and passing the ball, high-level physicality has bothered him in multiple games.

While dropping in pick-and-roll coverage might be easier for a big, doing so has proven perilous for opposing defenses against Illinois. Jakucionis and Ivisic have punished bigs who don’t get to the perimeter quickly enough. Jakucionis has also converted multiple four-point plays off of defenders going under screens and over-correcting their defensive positioning, which led to them crashing into Jakucionis on a closeout.

At the guard spot, however, the Tigers have multiple answers to the problems presented on the other side. Anthony Robinson II and Tony Perkins are adept at fighting over screens and not allowing easy three-point looks. Against an offense that moves quickly in the halfcourt, moves the ball effectively and maintains great spacing, Mizzou has the personnel to keep up.

Attack the basket

This has not been an issue for Mizzou; in fact, it’s been quite the opposite so far.

The Tigers are tops in the nation in made free throws per game (21.1) and No. 2 in free throw attempts per game (29.5), trailing only Winthrop in the category. However, getting to the tin frequently could help offset any three-point struggles, which is exactly what happened against California. After a lackluster outside shooting performance in the first half, head coach Dennis Gates told his team to get to the cup more in the final 20 minutes; despite the Tigers attempting just three triples in the second half, relentless (and successful) drives to the basket supplemented the lack of three-pointers in a 98-93 victory.

What also makes a large amount of rim attempts paramount is that Illinois shoots and makes a lot of three-pointers. The Illini are No. 5 nationally in three-point attempts and No. 23 in three-point makes. Additionally, all five starters are capable outside shooters. Essentially, considering UIUC’s strong three-point shooting, there’s a chance it can create a large scoring gap if MU isn’t connecting from the outside. Being able

Finally, getting Illinois into foul trouble might be a good idea for Mizzou, too. Again, the Illini have a short rotation; arguably the biggest wrench that the Tigers can throw into it is an increased foul count.

Rebound!

In Mizzou’s last game against Jacksonville State, the Gamecocks fought valiantly the entire way, even as they ended up falling 83-72.

However, a big reason that the Tigers almost lost to a J. State for the second consecutive season was because they struggled to rebound. The Gamecocks won the battle on the glass 37-25, which included 14 offensive rebounds, the most Mizzou had allowed to a mid-major opponent since Princeton grabbed 15 in its March Madness upset of MU two seasons ago.

Many of those offensive rebounds came off of missed shots from the outside. Gray and everyone else situated around the basket struggled to corral those long misses; against Illinois, who shoots a lot of three-pointers, this could be an issue for Mizzou once again.

Illinois has lost the rebounding battle once this season, and it was in its last game against Tennessee. If Mizzou wants to reclaim Braggin’ Rights, establishing superiority on the glass would be a solid first step.

Game Prediction

My prediction: Illinois 80, Mizzou 73

In last season’s contest, Marcus Domask made a layup with 11:40 left in the first half put Illinois up by 11. The Illini would hold a double-digit lead the rest of the way. However, it’s difficult to imagine this year’s edition of Braggin’ Rights being as lopsided as 2023’s, or 2022’s, or 2021’s. Both teams have multiple quality wins and lead the nation in at least some major statistical categories.

While Mizzou is more than formidable, simply put, Illinois can beat opponents in a litany of different ways. Even with someone like Humrichous struggling from the outside as of late, he shot almost 43% from downtown in Illinois’ first seven games. Besides, Jacob Crews, a fellow mid-major transfer who’s an elite spot-up shooter, saved the Tigers against JSU with six made three-pointers despite struggling mightily before that game. Good shooters usually get hot, even if they become plagued by a extended cold stretch.

Whatever the result ends up being, the arrow for both programs is pointing up. Sunday will present another opportunity to keep that arrow in the direction of Enterprise Center’s ceiling.