MBB Preview: Mizzou prepares for final tune-up against Alabama State

Dec 29, 2024 | Uncategorized

Written By

Missouri guard Anthony Robinson II (0) plays defense against Eastern Washington guard Mason Williams (2) in the second half of a game against Eastern Washington on Monday, Nov. 11, 2024, at Mizzou Arena. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

The Tigers will look to remove the stingers from the Hornets before SEC play starts on Jan. 4.

After its longest break of the season, Mizzou men’s hoops will look to shake off its Braggin’ Rights loss from the Stone Age that was a whole week ago. Luckily for the Tigers, they’ll get a chance to do it against Alabama State, a team who they should likely take care of in their final contest before conference play begins.

Alabama State @ Missouri

When | 6:30 p.m. CT

Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.

TV | ESPN+ I SEC Network+

Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199

Twitter | @MizzouHoops

BetMGM Line | MIZ -16, O/U 147

ESPN win probability | 97.6% chance

The Starters

Mizzou (10-2)

G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 10.7 PPG)

G: Tamar Bates (SR, 12.7 PPG)

G: Tony Perkins (SR, 8.8 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 13.8 PPG)

C: Josh Gray (SR, 2.9 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Marques Warrick (SR, 8.3 PPG)

Jacksonville State (4-8)

G: CJ Hines (SR, 15.8 PPG)

G: Amarr Knox (JR, 15.6 PPG)

G: TJ Madlock (SR, 12.1 PPG)

G: Tyler Mack (JR, 6.6 PPG)

C: Ubong Okon (JR, 7.5 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Micha Simpson (JR, 10.4 PPG)

Note: These starting lineups are projected.

Get to know Alabama State: The middle of the SWAC pack

There are plenty of NCAA Division I teams that have either won a lot or haven’t won very much at all. Alabama State is somewhere in the middle.

Since the SWAC began having a tournament in 1980, the Hornets have won it four times, which is tied with Jackson State for No. 5 in SWAC titles. However, ASU’s first two NCAA Tournament appearances were blowouts to No. 1 seeds in Michigan State (2001) and Duke (2004); its last two appearances, 2009 and 2011, saw the Hornets bow out in the First Four.

They’ve also been in the middle of the standings for quite some time. Alabama State has finished somewhere between No. 5 and No. 9 in the SWAC standings in every season since 2015-16. This year, they were picked to finish No. 6 in the preseason poll.

So far, they’ve performed decently despite starting just 4-8. While the SWAC usually gets pummeled by brutal non-conference schedules, Alabama State’s hasn’t been nearly as difficult as its conference counterparts. Per KenPom, every SWAC team’s non-conference adjusted strength of schedule rating is in the top 40 in the country, with six in the top 20 … except the Hornets. ASU’s non-conference SOS rating is No. 80 in the country (Mizzou’s is No. 359 out of 364). Its wins have come over Division III Virginia-Lynchburg, Omaha, Lamar and UT-Martin. The Hornets put up a solid fight against UNLV and LSU, although both ended in defeats. They’ve lost six of their last seven games and will be looking to do something they’ve only done twice in the KenPom Era (since 2001-02): beat a top-100 KenPom team. ASU did so in 2005 (South Alabama) and Virginia Tech (2015).

Alabama State is led by a trio of double-digit scorers in junior Amarr Knox as well as seniors CJ Hines and TJ Madlock, the son of ASU head coach Tony Madlock. Speaking of Tony, he’ll be hoping to lead ASU back to the Big Dance after going 21-42 in his first two seasons in Montgomery. Perhaps some of the magic from 1992, where Tony started alongside Penn Hardaway at Memphis en route to an Elite Eight appearance, can carry over into this season.

Funnily enough, Tony is closely connected with Mizzou. His first collegiate assistant coaching job came at Arkansas State; the head coach who hired him was David “Dickey” Nutt, who has assisted Dennis Gates since his arrival to Columbia in 2022.

Finally, ASU has seen a pair of wildly famous rappers come through its institution. One was Miles McCollum, better known as Lil Yachty (Yachty dropped out, however, to pursue a musical career. I’d say that worked out pretty well for him). The other famous rapper who was once a Hornet was Tauheed K. Epps, better known as 2 Chainz. Not only that, 2 Chainz was a basketball star at North Clayton High School in Georgia before playing two years of basketball at ASU from 1995-97. He averaged 2.8 points per game before transferring to Virginia State. (Editor’s note: TRULY some fun facts here.)

3 Keys to the Game

Get Going from Long Range

One major bright spot for Mizzou this season has been its ability to get to the free throw line and its efficiency from two-point range.

However, that bright spot has covered up a dark spot: inconsistent three-point shooting. While the Tigers were able to emerge victorious in close contests against California and Kansas, for example, Mizzou shot a combined 7/21 from beyond the arc. MU wasn’t as lucky against Illinois in its last game; although the Tigers shot a ridiculous 37 free throws against the Illini, they were just 3/13 from downtown, including a miss off the back iron by Jacob Crews that would’ve sent the game into overtime.

There’s a good chance that Mizzou frequents the charity stripe against ASU, as the Hornets’ opponents have shot 24.9 free throw per game, a bottom-10 number nationally. There’s also a good chance that the Tigers will be able to supplement a lack of three-point makes with two-pointers and free throws like they have numerous times already. However, they would probably like to shoot a little bit better from beyond the arc, especially heading into conference play where shooting might not come as easy.

On a similar note…

Make the Freebies

While MU has done a sensational job of drawing fouls, it hasn’t been very efficient at the free throw line. It’s the opposite of the case last season; the Tigers shot just 18.2 free throws per game, but their 79.2% clip from the charity stripe was a top-10 number nationally. This season, they’re second in the nation in free throw attempts, but they’re shooting just 71.8%.

Heading into Braggin’ Rights, a lack of free throw efficiency had cost Mizzou only once; that came against Memphis, when the Tigers missed nine free throws in an eight-point loss. Against Illinois, missed nine free throws once again, this time in a three-point defeat. That included six misses from Mark Mitchell, MU’s most frequent visitor to the free throw line.

Becoming an elite free throw-shooting team is a two-step process. The first step is getting to the charity stripe frequently; the second is making those shots. Mizzou has mastered the first step, but hasn’t done so with the second step.

Sting the Hornets

Besides balanced scoring, Alabama State’s other strength on offense is taking care of the ball.

ASU has averaged just 9.5 turnovers per game, which ranks tied for No. 12 nationally. However, Sunday will feature strength-on-strength in this department, as Mizzou has forced 16.33 turnovers per game. If the Tigers are able to put the Hornets in an unfamiliar spot by subtracting possessions, they’ll likely be in a far better spot than if they don’t.

Game Prediction

My prediction: Missouri 91, Alabama State 65

One stat that also might play an important role on Sunday: Alabama State is one of the worst scoring defenses in the country. Opponents have averaged 81.3 points per game against the Hornets, a bottom-20 number nationally. ASU has given up at least 90 points four times, including 101 to SMU.

While Alabama State hasn’t gotten totally pummeled by its non-conference slate, Sunday is ripe for a big Mizzou victory. It’d move the Tigers to 11-2 before the gauntlet that is SEC play begins.

You Might Also Like

Injuries, obstacles mounting for Mizzou Wrestling

Injuries, obstacles mounting for Mizzou Wrestling

Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation The Tigers are currently without their three expected key contributors, two gone for the rest of the season For the second straight year, Mizzou Wrestling has begun its season with high hopes and expectations before seeing the year take a...

read more
Commute: Who is declaring for the NFL draft?

Commute: Who is declaring for the NFL draft?

The Morning Commute for Friday, January 3rd, 2024. Welcome to the Morning Commute We all need our moment, right? That’s the benefit of social media, it allows every one to play the title role in their own script. With that said I’m not sure I fully understand...

read more
Defending champs blow out Mizzou WBB

Defending champs blow out Mizzou WBB

Karen Steger Action Photography Tigers fall to South Carolina 83-52 Mizzou WBB (11-5, 0-1 SEC) competed early on with No. 2 South Carolina (13-1, 1-0 SEC), but faltered in the second half as the talent discrepancy showed. South Carolina ended the first quarter ahead...

read more

0 Comments