MBB Preview: Mizzou looks to extend winning streak to 10 against Jacksonville State

Dec 17, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Missouri guard Anthony Robinson II (0) dribbles towards the basket on Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024 at the Mizzou Arena in Columbia. (MICHAEL BANIEWICZ/ROCK M NATION)

It would be the Tigers’ first such streak since the beginning of the 2013-14 season.

Predict the Trifecta: Who will be Mizzou’s top three performers tonight?


The year is 2013. The Missouri Tigers led by head coach Frank Haith have just skimmed out a 66-60 victory at home over Western Michigan to move to 10-0 on the season, picking up their tenth straight win. Head coach Dennis Gates & Co. have the chance to say those final five words tonight if they can handle business against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks of the Conference USA.

The Gamecocks come into this game with a record of 6-4 and a KenPom ranking of 181. Their leading scorer is Jaron Pierre Jr. who has 23.2 points per game which is good for fourth in the country. He also lugs an average of 35.9 minutes per game, making him one of 40 players in the country who miss only an average of five minutes or less per game. As far as upset capability, the Gamecocks highest-rated opponent to date is James Madison at 125th in KenPom, just a season out from being a 12-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Gamecocks narrowly lost that game 71-65 at a neutral site in Daytona.

The Starters

Mizzou (9-1)

G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 11.5 PPG)

G: Tamar Bates (SR, 13.3 PPG)

G: Tony Perkins (SR, 7.8 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 13.0 PPG)

C: Josh Gray (SR, 3.1 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Marques Warrick (SR, 8.8 PPG)

Jacksonville State (6-4)

G: Jaron Pierre Jr. (SR, 23.2 PPG)

G: Jamar Franklin (JR, 10.0 PPG)

G: Koree Cotton (SO, 8.0 PPG)

F: Marcellus Brigham Jr. (SR, 5.9 PPG)

C: Mason Nicholson (JR, 7.6 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Michael Houge (SR, 10.4 PPG)

Note: These starting lineups are projected.

Get to know Jacksonville State’s: CBB’s newest conference hopper

The growth of the Gamecock football program has led to rapid conference movement for Jacksonville State’s basketball program. They are one of just a handful of schools who can claim three conference affiliations in the last five years. They left the Ohio Valley Conference after 17 years to re-join the Atlantic Sun conference, which was short lived as they left for Conference USA just two years later.

One of the youngest division one college basketball programs, JSU’s first season was in 1995-96 as a member of the Trans America Athletic conference (Now known as the ASUN). In their 30 years as a D1 program the Gamecocks have made the NCAA Tournament just twice. Both times have come under current head coach Ray Harper, but as members of the OVC when they were seeded 15th after winning the conference tournament. In 2016-17 the Gamecocks fell 78-63 to Rick Pitino’s second-seeded Louisville and in 2021-22 they fell 80-61 to Bruce Pearl’s second-seeded Auburn.

Harper’s D1 head coaching career began in an unorthodox way, he found himself as the interim head coach at Western Kentucky in 2011-12 after Ken McDonald was fired after a 5-11 start. Harper rallied the Hilltoppers behind him and went 11-8 as the interim including a miraculous four wins in four days to capture the Sun Belt conference championship. Harper’s Hilltoppers then took down Mississippi Valley State to earn the 16th-seed and then lost to Kentucky in the first round. Harper then doubled down and took WKU to the tournament the following year repeating the four wins in four days feat. His Hilltoppers earned the 16th seed outright this time, and almost did the lord’s work losing 64-57 to the one-seeded kansas jayhawks in the first round.

After some down years with the Hilltoppers, Harper found himself as the new coach at Jacksonville State where he has taken the school to its only two tournament appearances and amassed a 152-116 record despite being in three different conferences.

Prior to all this however, Harper was a highly successful D2 head coach at his alma mater Kentucky Wesleyan. Insanely enough, his team either finished first or second nationally for six years in a row from 1998-2003 with two national titles coming in 1999 and 2001. Right after that he won two more titles at the NAIA level with Oklahoma City College. His D2 prowess earned him National Coach of the Year honors SEVEN times, safe to say this man’s coaching prowess has been alive and well for a long time.

3 Keys to the Game

Don’t let anyone other than Pierre to beat you

It’s very clear that Jaron Pierre Jr. is this teams offense, but this team wins games when players other than him find ways to contribute. While it would be nice to stop the fourth-leading scorer in all of college basketball, stopping others from contributing will make it virtually impossible for this team to win. Pierre can singlehandedly win this team games against mid-major opponents, but I doubt he can do it against a school playing as good of basketball as the Tigers are playing right now.

Get in transition off of made baskets

One thing this Tiger team excels at is defending well off of made baskets and scoring well off of opposition’s made baskets, and continuing that trend is going to be key tonight. Jacksonville State ranks 264th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, and thus will likely be uncomfortable if the Tigers can speed things up off of rebounds and made shots. If the Tigers can catch them napping like they have done to many opponents this year, it can be a long night for coach Harper.

Get to the line

I feel like this has been a key for many of my previews so far but that’s for good reason. Coach Gates described getting to the line as a way to “buy time” and he provided a formula for how much time free throws can buy, and says when his team is at his best they are buying at least four minutes of time with free throws. If his team can continue to draw fouls the way they’ve done all season and get the Gamecocks’ bigs in foul trouble, then this can be a healthy blowout.

Game Prediction

My prediction: Missouri 85, Jacksonville State 62

I did get the kU prediction wrong last week (and I am so glad I did) but I do think that this is a game the Tigers handle. Pierre is a scary player to defend but the Gamecocks don’t really have anyone else of note in their offense and it’s evidenced by their next highest-played player averaging 14-minutes less per game than Pierre. I foresee the Tigers limiting Pierre but playing their own game very well and getting into transition. This game could be close at halftime but I don’t envision the Gamecocks hanging with the Tigers for 40 minutes. Look for Anthony Robinson to have a good game today as he will likely be able to generate a lot of fouls against the Gamecocks who won’t be used to a player as undersized yet as physical as he is.

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