MBB Game Preview: Mizzou hosts Lindenwood on Thanksgiving Eve

Nov 27, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Missouri guard Anthony Robinson II (0) poses after being fouled while shooting in the second half of a game against Howard on Friday, Nov. 8, 2024, at Mizzou Arena. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

The Tigers will look to continue their longest winning streak since Feb.-Mar. 2023.

Following a season-opening loss to Memphis, Mizzou men’s basketball has rebounded by taking advantage of a soft non-conference schedule.

Missouri vs Lindenwood

When | 5:30 p.m. CT

Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.

TV | ESPN+ / SEC Network +

Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199

Twitter | @MizzouHoops

Betting Line | MIZZ -23.5, O/U 154

ESPN win probability | 98.8% chance

The Tigers have looked especially dominant over their last three games: a historic 72-point win over Mississippi Valley State, a 35-point rout of Pacific and a 49-point smackdown of Arkansas-Pine Bluff. MU has crossed the 90-point threshold in each of those three contests, a stretch that’s seen Caleb Grill make 21 three-pointers in 31 attempts. That seems pretty good!

The Starters

Mizzou (5-1)

G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 10.2 PPG)

G: Tamar Bates (SR, 13.0 PPG)

G: Annor Boateng (FR, 5.0 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 10.8 PPG)

C: Josh Gray (SR, 3.6 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Caleb Grill (SR, 15.8 PPG)

Lindenwood (2-4)

G: Markeith Browning II (SR, 11.7 PPG)

G: Anias Futrell (SR, 12.3 PPG)

G: Reggie Bass (JR, 8 PPG)

G: Jadis Jones (FR, 12.5 PPG)

F: Jaylon McDaniel (SR, 4.3 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Jordan Wildy (JR, 6.3 PPG)

Note: These starting lineups are projected.

Get to know Lindenwood: Still getting used to Division I hoops

When Lindenwood moved up from Division II to Division I in all sports a little over two years ago, excitement was palpable in Wentzville.

“This opportunity will elevate our entire university and provide championship-level experiences our student athletes deserve,” Lindenwood President Dr. John Porter said when the Lions officially accepted an invite to the Ohio Valley Conference. “A move to NCAA Division I athletics and membership in the OVC enhances our Lindenwood University community in many ways and aligns with our strategic plan– it will drive enrollment, enhance university visibility, and generate revenue.”

Porter’s enrollment prophecy came true — last fall, LU saw a record number of freshman enroll at the university for the second straight year. Some sports have been doing especially well; the volleyball team, for example, finished second in the OVC this season and advanced to the conference championship game with a five-set win over No. 3 Tennessee Tech on Monday.

Men’s basketball, on the other hand, hasn’t quite gotten there. The Lions went 11-21 (6-12 OVC) in 2022-23 and 9-22 (3-15 OVC) last season. Even in a conference that’s seen perennial powerhouses such as Murray State and Belmont depart, the Lions still rank at the bottom, as they were picked to finish eighth in the preseason OVC poll and currently rank last in the conference in KenPom (351st).

It hasn’t been all doom and gloom in Wentzville, however. The Lions beat University of Health Sciences and Pharmacy in St. Louis 98-30 and squeaked out a 75-74 win over Stonehill. Even so, UHSP plays at the NAIA level, and Stonehill finished tied for last in the NEC preseason poll. LU also got waxed by Oklahoma in the season-opener and have losses to New Orleans, Robert Morris and Valparaiso, all of whom were picked in finish in the bottom three of their respective conferences preseason.

In terms of personnel, Milwaukee transfer Markeith Browning II has provided a solid scoring punch, and Anias Futrell has been a solid two-way presence, scoring 24 points, grabbing 11 rebounds and recording three steals as well as two blocks against Stonehill. But it’s actually been freshman Jadis Jones who’s represented Lindenwood’s most consistent scorer and rebounder thus far, dropping at least 14 points and grabbing at least five boards in four of LU’s first five games.

3 Keys to the Game

Make three-pointers…collectively

One of the many positives from Mizzou’s first six games is that Grill has been a lightning rod from downtown after a rough start to the season. Tamar Bates has shot the rock awfully well from downtown as well.

But outside of those two, however, the Tigers have struggled connecting on three-pointerS. Grill and Bates are a combined 28/54 (51.9%) from three-point range. Everybody else is 21/71 (29.6%). Some players, like Marques Warrick, have been able to find grooves from downtown at certain points throughout the young season. But Mizzou cannot rely on Grill to keep lighting up the opposition at historic levels from beyond the arc. Jacob Crews, whose elite three-point shooting made him a fantastic acquisition for MU in the transfer portal from UT-Martin, is just 4/14 from long distance. Trent Pierce is just 3/12 from beyond the arc, although he’s shooting the three-ball with a lot more confidence than he was last season.

Three-point shooting is also an area where Mizzou can really separate itself against Lindenwood, as the Lions are a bottom-30 team nationally in three-point makes and three-point percentage.

Keep a positive assist-to-turnover ratio

Having a positive assist-to-turnover ratio is something that Dennis Gates has harped on since he arrived in Columbia. The Tigers have done a decent job of doing so, as their 1.55 mark ranks tied for 56th nationally.

However, part of the reason why Mizzou fell to Memphis and let Howard as well as Eastern Washington linger was because of poor assist-to-turnover ratios. The number barely sat on the positive side against Memphis and EWU, and against the Bison, the Tigers turned the ball over 12 times while only registering nine assists.

One aspect of the game LU is actually good at is steals, as the Lions are top-30 nationally in steals per game with almost 10. But as long as the Tigers can limit turnovers, they should be in a good spot.

Get to the line (and make the freebies)

Mizzou has made a tremendous leap in free throw attempts this season compared to last while still remaining efficient from the charity stripe. Especially against smaller teams, the Tigers have turned opponents into prey down low, especially Mark Mitchell, who’s already registered 38 attempts from the charity stripe this season.

After shooting just eight free throws against Pacifc, MU shot 41 against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, its most in a game since it shot 44 against Arkansas on Feb. 8, 2020. While it might be unrealistic to expect a similar output against Lindenwood, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Tigers attempt between 25-30 free throws against the Lions.

Game Prediction

My prediction: Mizzou 90, Lindenwood 50

Unless some of the wackiness that’s plagued several power conference schools against mid-majors already magically enters mid-Missouri, the Tigers should take down the Lions with relative ease in their final game before California comes to town.

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