Iowa Q&A with Black Heart Gold Pants

Dec 28, 2024 | Uncategorized

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NCAA Football: Northwestern at Iowa
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Mizzou Football ends their 2024 campaign in the Music City Bowl vs Iowa in Nashville. Let’s learn more about these Hawkeyes with a Q&A.

The Missouri Tigers end their 2024 season with a date in the TransPerfect Music City Bowl against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Mizzou is looking for back-to-back 10-win seasons for just the third time in program history and the first time since 2013-2014.

Kick-off on Monday afternoon in Nashville is set for 1:30 p.m. CST on ESPN with Taylor Zarzour (pxp), Matt Stinchcomb (analyst), and Alyssa Lang (sideline reporter) on the call.

To get some more perspective on Kirk Ferentz’s team, we talked it over with Jonah Parker over at Iowa’s SB Nation site Black Heart Gold Pants.

Here’s the Q&A to get you ready:

1. Sammy Stava: Iowa finished the regular season with a record of 8-4, which was good for a fourth-place tie with Illinois at a 6-3 league mark. Considering the preseason outlook for this team, did the Hawkeyes meet, exceed or fail to meet those expectations?

Jonah Parker: As easy as that question might seem to answer, I think it requires a nuanced answer. If you polled a random sample of Iowa fans at the beginning of every year for their season expectations, the vast majority of the time you’d get an answer that falls somewhere between 8-4 and 9-3. So, on its face, an 8-4 finish should seem pretty much on par with expectations. Especially when you consider the Vegas line for season wins was at 7.5.

But when we polled our community ahead of the season, the results were quite a bit better than typical. Our consensus expectation was for a 10-2 season, driven by a couple of factors. Iowa’s schedule this year was not meaningfully more difficult than under the old Big Ten West (especially if you didn’t have Iowa State being ranked most of the year on your bingo card) and we all knew the offense couldn’t be worse than we had a year ago when the team managed to win 10 games with a starting QB who transferred to be second string at an FCS school.

So, finishing two games behind where we finished 2023 certainly feels like a disappointment for most of us. Adding insult to injury were the brutally bad performances in games we collectively felt the Hawkeyes should have handled at Michigan State and UCLA and watching them fall flat on their face after thoroughly dominating the in-state rival for a half back in September.

2. SS: All-American Kaleb Johnson has expectedly opted out due to declaring for the NFL Draft. How big of a loss is that for the Hawkeyes’ offense in this game and who will step up at the running back position?

JP: Not having Johnson is a colossal loss for this offense. KJ accounted for 61% of Iowa’s touchdowns this season and 43% of the total yardage on 43% of the total touches. He’s an absolute monster that wore down defenses all year long and broke countless long touchdown runs.

But as a fan, it is somewhat exciting to see what comes from this offense post-Kaleb Johnson. The Hawkeyes are in year one of the Tim Lester experience and are recovering from severe trauma under former OC Brian Ferentz. Lester is a professional offensive coordinator (as in, he is someone who deserves to do this as his profession whereas BF was decidedly not) that has a modern system complete with forward passes and all. But KJ was so good that I don’t think we really got to see what all is in the bag. We saw a ton of mid-zone run mixed with old faithful, the outside zone, but the screen game, which was a staple at Western Michigan, was non-existent and the RPO game was really only dangled in front of us.

I expect QB Brendan Sullivan to throw a bit more than we saw most of the season, but when the Hawkeyes do go to the ground game, he will also be a threat – something we never saw under Brian. At RB, look for youngster Kamari Moulton to be the lead guy. He brings more speed than KJ, but less power and much less refined vision. He’ll be mixed in with Jaz Patterson, who is a bit undersized to be a power back but is probably Iowa’s best option in short-yardage situations.

3. SS: Brendan Sullivan is expected to get the start at quarterback in this game. What are your expectations for him after returning from injury?

JP: Sullivan will be a welcome sight for Hawkeye fans, who have longed for a mobile QB for years. We got a taste of what that can do for the offense in both the positive and negative sense this year, with his added dimension really opening things up for Johnson in the running game at times, but also setting the table for key losses with turnovers and his early departure against UCLA.

On Monday, I expect OC Tim Lester to look at building for next year a bit in the passing game. I think we see more in the way of RPOs and the screen game. I also think we see him finally lean back in a bit on the TE, a position Iowa has churned out for two decades but seemingly got away from despite having another NFLer in Luke Lachey at the position all season.

Sullivan has a bigger arm than former starter Cade McNamara and I could see Lester taking some shots off of play action, particularly if they can get Lachey up the seam – one of his staples while at WMU.

4. SS: Mizzou fans have probably heard of the name Xavier Nwankpa during his recruitment. Has he lived up to the five-star expectations during his time with the Hawkeyes? Who are some other names to watch on this Iowa defense?

JP: In a word: no. The Hawkeyes don’t typically get 5-star athletes. Head coach Kirk Ferentz almost prides the program on not being “sexy” (his words) and frankly, the funding has never been there whether NIL or under the table. So, when we’ve landed them in the past, they’ve typically been legacy kids (AJ Epenesa) or in state prospects like Nwankpa. And typically, they’ve come with sky-high expectations.

While the former, Epenesa, lived up to those expectations and is now having a great career for the Bills, Nwankpa has really never met the hype. He’s got tremendous size for the position and all the athletic tools, but he’s been out of position in coverage as much as any safety I can remember under Phil Parker. That actually got him the boot earlier this year with youngster Koen Entringer stepping in rather nicely and ultimately splitting reps with him down the stretch. I would expect to see both on Monday.

Elsewhere, the biggest names to know are at linebacker. Jay Higgins is a two-time All-American and beside him is Nick Jackson, who is second all-time in tackles in the NCAA. The duo will be everywhere if this are going well for the Iowa defense.

If things aren’t going as well, I would expect the issue to be in the passing game, particularly given Iowa’s top corner, Jermari Harris, opted out of the remainder of the season a month ago. Keep an eye out for Sebastian Castro in Iowa’s “cash” position as he’ll look like a missile in run support, but the secondary is vulnerable in the passing game, especially if the front four aren’t able to generate pressure without a blitz.

5. Iowa comes into this game as a 3-point underdog. How do you see this game going on Monday? Have a final score prediction?

JP: I’ll be honest, it’s hard to know what to expect from the Hawkeyes without Kaleb Johnson. Perhaps burying the lead, a bit here, but we learned on Thursday that starting center Logan Jones is also sporting a cast on his snapping hand and, uh, questionable for Monday. So, running the ball may prove difficult for an offense built on running the ball.

Add in the fact the defense is not what we have come to expect over two decades of Phil Parker in coaching the secondary and I worry the Hawkeyes could be down early in this one and breaking in a largely new playbook in the passing game as they try to keep up.

I think Missouri wins this one 27-17, barring the Hawkeyes coming up with some timely turnovers to either set up short fields or put points on the board without the offense needing to do a thing.

A big thanks to Jonah for answering our questions today. Be sure to follow him and Black Heart Gold Pants on X for Iowa coverage leading up to the Music City Bowl.

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