Bye Week Breakdown 2: Offense

Oct 30, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III (3) leaves the field after the end of a game against Alabama on Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024, at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Burden had three catches for as many yards in the game. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

Taking a look under the statistical hood of Mizzou’s offense

With the completion of Mizzou’s second trimester of the 2024 season, I felt like it would be a good time to take a look at how the Tigers’ offense and defense ranks nationally. And not just in your standard stats like total rushing yards or whatever.

No.

We’re going deeper.

Here’s what I got for you after eight games. We start this week with the offense, and I will compare where the numbers are now as to where they were at the first bye week:

Overall Offensive Ranks

The bad news, of course, is that – after playing three elite SEC defenses (and having a hella injured QB) – Mizzou’s offense is much worse now than it was after the first four games. As in, regression across the board. They are still efficiency based and explosive adverse as they were in the beginning, but…ya know…just worse.

Rushing Offense Rankings

The good news, then, is that the running game is just as effective now as it was four games ago. The percentage fluctuation is mostly negligible and, despite a slight dip in the number, the stuff rate ranks higher now nationally than it did after the Vanderbilt game.

Passing Offense Rankings

Now here’s the culprit for the regression. Part of this is the improvement in caliber of defense in this stretch, but also the fact that Drew Pyne has been the quarterback for 14 drives.

Standard Downs Offense Rankings

More regression across the board on standard downs. Not a single thing improved, except for the slightest of upticks in the number of run plays called. Of note is the tumble in success rate and, more alarmingly, sack rate. Standard downs are situations where the offense can either run or pass, and defenses should be so uncertain about what’s going on that they don’t send a lot of extra guys to get pressure. Which means the offensive line is giving up more pressure in situations where a team is most likely to run. That’s not great!

Passing Downs Offense Rankings

Passing downs is an odd contrast. Success rate, efficiency, and sack rate have gotten worse but, in a surprise twist, passing downs have become the situation where explosiveness has improved. By a noticeable amount! They’re still not very explosive but it is better.

Offensive Efficiency Rankings

Mizzou’s regression in offensive efficiency has been the big downfall over the past four weeks. The 3-and-out percentage, in particular, has been a big disappointment but there’s no way Mizzou was going to stay under 10% for the entire season while playing an SEC schedule. But, hey, at least the penalties have improved!

Offensive Third Downs Rankings

With the regression of Mizzou’s efficiency, so has come a flip in frequency of yards needed for the Tiger offense’s 3rd downs. Four games ago they were mostly hanging out in 3rd-and-3-to-6 yards and converting it nearly 70% of the time. Now? Their 3-6 and 7+ percentages flipped, and the success rates for 3-6 have dropped, while 7+ slightly improved (but not significantly).

Offensive Red Zone Rankings

And here we are, a category of stats that hasn’t really changed much! They still struggle in the 21-30 yard range, just as good in the 11-20 yard range, and about the same inside the 10. The 1st-and-goal rate has improved a bit and (surprise!) is 2nd in the nation, but the actual goal line success rate is much lower than before.

Conclusion

The offensive numbers were absurd over the first four weeks thanks to a light schedule of mid defenses so the percentages and rankings were bound to plummet. Still, we all felt like the offense has completely dried up over the past four weeks and, yeah, the numbers back that up. It certainly won’t improve with Drew Pyne but I’m not sure how much more it would have improved with a fully healthy Brady Cook. At this point this offense is what they are and Kirby Moore is just going to have to learn to scheme around it.

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