Beyond the Box Score: Salute

Dec 3, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Mizzou wins in the most fitting way possible to honor these seniors and this season.

Anyone else feel like the game against Arkansas was the most appropriate way to honor this regular season?

The offense looked incapable for three quarters. The defense was malleable but held Arkansas out of scoring opportunities. And then the 4th quarter hit and the offense remembered it could do cool stuff and the stars delivered: Johnny Walker Jr. was disruptive, Brady Cook ran for a touchdown, and Luther Burden III caught the final pass that Cook would throw at Faurot field and turned it into points.

That was this season in a nutshell: effective but feeling like so much more potential was left unmet. We may never know why exactly this (nearly identical) offense was so much less explosive than it’s ‘23 counterpart but, at the end of the day, this team nearly always did just enough to win.

Did they beat great teams? Absolutely not. You could argue they played three Playoff-caliber teams and lost all three (on the road). But they beat every team that they should have and won a few swing games. It might not be the most fun way of program success but that’s a great way to win 8-9 games per season. And, even in the modern era, winning 8-9 games per season will keep you employed at Mizzou. Just ask Gary Pinkel!

Let’s take a look at the advanced box score:

Advanced Box Score

Mizzou and Arkansas entered this game as pretty similar teams in terms of quality. And on the field Arkansas was much more extravagant in how they moved the ball and experience more success because of it. But it didn’t help them create more scoring opportunities or finish with more points, and the two turnovers + poor 3rd-down execution led to a narrow Missouri win.

When Missouri Has the Ball

Missouri’s Offense vs. Arkansas’ Defense

For three quarters Missouri was moving the ball in a manner that seemed like they were super concerned about messing something up. Tons of runs, short throws, and not a lot of risks made for some very boring and uninspiring football. But given Arkansas’ penchant for screwing things up, it made at least a little bit of sense…but they were also fortunate that Arkansas, indeed, screwed things up and turned the ball over twice. Otherwise, this game could have easily become a loss due to Mizzou’s misfirings.

Pass to Win

Missouri didn’t throw it much and, when they did, they didn’t have much success. I set the bar at a 45% success rate and they finished with a 33.3% success rate.

Winner: Arkansas

Keep Up with the Chains

Staying on the field was key so I was hoping Mizzou could maintain at least 50% in manageable 3rd-down conversions. On the day they finished 6-15 on overall 3rd-downs, good for 40%. Of the manageable variant – of which I’d consider 3rd-7 or less – they went 5-5, or exactly 50%!

Winner: Missouri

Finish Your Dang Drives

Missouri managed to exceed my expectations a bit, as I set the goal at 6 scoring opportunities at 3.5 points per opportunity for a total of 21 and the final line was 6 scoring opportunities at 4.7 points per opportunity.

Winner: Missouri

When Arkansas Has the Ball

Missouri’s Defense vs. Arkansas’ Offense

Arkansas came into this game with a reputation of being turnover happy and left with the same reputation…but it could have been so much worse. On average, a college defense with intercept roughly every third pass that they get their hands on. Missouri had ten passes defensed and zero interceptions. If things played out on average they should have had three interceptions to go along with their two fumble recoveries. Oh well.

HAVOC

There was so much havoc! I set the bar at least 22% and, thanks to a ton of passes defensed, Mizzou finished at 28.8%, their second-highest total against an FBS team (Boston College and Murray State were both at 30%).

Winner: Missouri

Turnovers!

Arkansas threw a bunch of interceptable balls (editor’s note: we’re just making up words here; go with it) and fumbled plenty but, even with some bad turnover luck, Mizzou managed to stay at +2 and not turn the ball over.

Winner: Missouri

The Little Things

“The Little Things” Report Card
Demerits

Turnovers and finishing drives were what ultimately undid Arkansas’ plans for victory. Everything else was fairly close.

On the demerit side, Arkansas really got carried away with the penalties! And while it was very disappointing to see a certain 7th-year captain make yet another crushing series of poor choices, in the end it wasn’t enough to kill any chance at Mizzou winning (and he was benched for it).

Extra Points

Success Rate by Quarter
  • I know they’ve received some flak over these past three weeks but lets give the defense credit: they’ve managed to be creatively disruptive and (mostly) stinging in scoring position. Arkansas’ success rate was insane for most of the game but the key areas where they didn’t execute as well were 3rd-down and in scoring position. That’s not just offensive ineptitude; that’s quality defensive execution as well. Thankfully they kept Arkansas at bay long enough for Missouri’s offense to execute their “oh yeah it’s time to win” 4th-quarter game plan.
What down did the yards happen?

Both offenses thrived in wide-open standard downs sets but saw most of that success get wiped out on 3rd-down. Arkansas had the unique fortune of connecting on some haymakers on 4th-down late in the game that Missouri (clearly) didn’t also experience.

What quarter did the yards happen?
  • Missouri managed to move the ball much better in the 4th quarter when they started to attempt some balance between the run and the pass. Weird, huh? Meanwhile…I don’t remember Arkansas running 27 plays in the 4th quarter, but apparently they did. The yardage total really tells the story of how this game came down to the wire as the Tigers finally woke up and started scoring.
First Downs Gained

Last week we had the Nate Noel game, this week Marcus Carroll shone in the snow and regained his 1st-down creation crown. Some form of him, Noel, and Cook throwing to Wease will wind up being the top three in 1st-downs generated on the year which…yeah, that feels right.

Conclusion

Missouri finishes the season undefeated at home, featuring the first 7-0 home record ever. The seniors go out in style with a win and a rock over a team that thinks it’s way better than it actually is which is always fun. Now we wait to see where Missouri goes for a bowl game as early signing day and Portal Season open up before a single Playoff game occurs. Happy December in college football!

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