Beyond the Box Score: K.O.

Oct 29, 2024 | Uncategorized

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In a season where Mizzou only wins by a little or loses by a lot, they did not win by a little.

Wow. That sucked. Let’s see how much it sucked with numbers.

Advanced Box Score

Point to the spot on this box score that hurts the most. I’ll go first. /points to all of it

When Missouri Has the Ball

Missouri’s Offense vs. Alabama’s Defense

With 7:57 left in the 4th quarter, Jamal Roberts crossed the Alabama 40-yard line with the ball in his hand, eventually being tackled at the ‘Bama 36. That was the first instance the Mizzou offense created a scoring opportunity in the game.

That pretty much tells you everything you need to know.

Be Efficient on the Ground

Mizzou was able to crest their goal of a 40% success rate on the ground by finishing with a 47.4% rushing success rate. But their first non-Jamal Roberts successful run didn’t occur until the middle of the 2nd quarter, and Roberts was only run once up until that point. It eventually worked but not until the game was well out of hand.

Winner: Missouri

Create Explosives Through The Air

Mizzou had zero explosive plays through the air.

Winner: Alabama

FINISH. YOUR. DANG. DRIVES.

As per the anecdote above, Missouri did not do this because Missouri did not create chances to score.

Winner: Alabama

When Alabama Has the Ball

Missouri’s Defense vs. Alabama’s Offense

Alabama’s offensive success rate before Drew Pyne’s first interception: 40.0%

Alabama’s offensive success rate after Drew Pyne’s first interception: 52.9%

HAVOC!

Goal was 28%, Mizzou produced 14.6%.

Winner: Alabama

TURNOVERS!

Mizzou was -3 in turnover margin.

Winner: Alabama

The Little Things

“The Little Things” Report Card

Demerits

Yards per play and scoring opportunities are all you really need to fully explain how this one went. The turnover count is just an extra bonus piece of information that no one needed or asked for.

On the demerit front, if you had to have your worst penalty performance in six weeks, it might as well be while you’re getting your ass handed to you in a shutout. Silver linings!

Extra Points

Success Rate by Quarter

This game went into garbage time with 4:28 left in the 3rd quarter.

What down did the yards happen?

55.5% of Missouri’s total offensive yards occurred on 1st-down. Meanwhile, Alabama was absolutely horrific on 3rd-down, which matters very little when you’re rarely facing 3rd-down situations.

What quarter did the yards happen?

Mizzou never gained more than 100 yards in a single quarter, which is the first time that has happened all year. Alabama, on the other hand, was absolutely flailing in the 1st quarter before easily cruising to 100+ yard quarters the rest of the game.

First Downs Gained

Mizzou went 3-and-out five times on the day, including the first two drives, and threw 3 interceptions. That’s 8 of your 12 possessions essentially covering very little ground or absorbing any time at all for a game plan that, I’m assuming, was geared around a ball-control, low possession, grind-it-out approach. But, on a positive note, Jamal Roberts was good enough to go from a multi-way tie for 9th in 1st down accruals to 6th in a single game, thanks to five 1st-downs gained on the ground (plus one via pass).

Conclusion

Mizzou lost. Yeah, got it. The chances of Mizzou earning a Playoff spot are essentially 0%. Yup, understood.

But there’s still an entire season left, yeah? Four games by my count. And regardless of if it includes a Playoff appearance or not, there is a HUGE difference between 10 wins and 6.

Heading into this season I thought Mizzou could lose to Texas A&M and most likely lose to Alabama. And, at the conclusion of the second trimester of the season, Mizzou has lost to the current #1 team in the SEC and Alabama. So, yeah, par for the course there.

The two things we’re wringing our hands over, however, are the score differentials in those two games and, of course, Brady Cook’s ability to play football.

I’ll just say that I’m not concerned about the former because 1.) Drinkwitz teams don’t play a style of football that lends itself to blow outs and 2.) style points only matter for Playoff seeding which, I’ll just say now, isn’t going to happen. Why? Because Mizzou doesn’t play another Playoff-caliber opponent for the rest of the season, and there’s no way that a Selection Committee will look at a 10-2 team whose two games against Playoff-caliber teams were gigantic one-sided losses. We’d need a truck load of shenanigans to have Mizzou in a realistic conversation with that particular blemish.

So then it comes down to Cook. Here’s how I see it:

If he’s 100% healthy then Mizzou has a legitimate chance to win the last four games. Maybe even do so!

If he’s less than 100% healthy then Mizzou could win all four but, most likely, goes 2-2 down the stretch.

If it’s the Drew Pyne show for the rest of the year then Mizzou will hopefully win one game. Probably Mississippi State. Potentially Arkansas. But you only get to pick one…and it could also be zero.

There’s an entire week off for this team before Oklahoma week and I have no idea what we’re going to find out. I know the TV broadcast insinuated that Cook’s hand was broken but that’s, like, third-hand relaying of news in a rushed and hectic manner from what is most likely an emotionally-charged source on the sideline. I’m not saying the sideline reporter is a liar or acted in bad faith, just that it’s hard to relay info in real time when you only had a brief stint in the x-ray room in the opponent’s locker room.

Indiana’s Kurtis Roarke had surgery on a tendon in his thumb and is projected to miss only a week. I don’t know the various timelines on all hand injuries but there is a chance Cook is fine with no issues by November 9th. But that’s just his hand. There’s also the nagging issue of his high ankle sprain and, despite walking into the stadium just fine, I’m not convinced was a non-factor in Cook’s play.

For better or worse this teams rides and dies with Brady Cook. What he’s able to contribute down the stretch will determine how well this team finishes the 2024 season.

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