
Analyzing Mizzou’s upcoming opponent with an analytics-based deep dive into the scouting and matchups that have this game in the balance.
Welcome to the Week 11 Oklahoma edition of Between the Numbers, where we preview Mizzou’s game with an analytics deep dive. I’ll look into tendencies, weak spots, strong spots, opportunities — areas the Tigers can exploit and things that they will need to step up. I will use advanced metrics such as PFF charting (and occasionally grading, although that system is a broadsword, not a scalpel). There will be a heavy dose of EPA, pulled from sources like Game on Paper and College Football Insiders. And, of course, some good ol’ fashioned SP+, as well.
This article will be less a big-picture list of goals that the Tigers need to do well, like in Nate Edwards’ indispensable weekly preview. It will be more of a spotlight on key matchups for this week’s opponent.
We are lucky to have a highly analytics literate readership here at Rock M Nation. If you want to discuss any of this content further, push back on some of my conclusions, or ask questions about the numbers, please post in the comments, on RockM+, or reach out on Twitter. Let’s get to it.
The third and final trimester of Missouri’s football season begins on Saturday. Fresh off the second bye week, the Tigers will play host to Oklahoma in the biggest game of the season. It was the biggest game when the schedule was made last year, it was the biggest game when the season kicked off, and it is still the biggest game now that we are here.
Unfortunately, the Tigers arrive at the game coming off their lowest point of the season – a 34-0 demolition at the hands of Alabama. It was the second such non-competitive game for the Tigers, after the loss at Texas A&M. Combined, those two games exposed the critical flaws of the team. The Tiger offense can be efficient, but has no explosiveness, but a negative play can wreck the team’s ability to be efficient. The defense creates some Havoc, but is vulnerable to explosive plays. Corey Batoon’s defense is generally pretty efficient on a down-to-down basis, and is pretty good at forcing inefficiency and keeping teams behind the sticks.
Alabama and Texas A&M were well-prepared to exploit the Mizzou weaknesses. Yes, A&M got the benefit of an ill-prepared and unmotivated Missouri, and Alabama got the benefit of playing against Drew Pyne after a Brady Cook injury. But those were both “win more” conditions: both teams had the physical run game, consistent pass attack, and swarming defense to bully the Tigers from tip-off.
Oklahoma is a program that Mizzou fans are used to being a bully. The Sooners commanded a deep talent advantage over the Tigers for many generations, but that gap has closed in recent years. The Sooners have a strong defense with future Sunday players. But quarterback instability, poor offensive line recruiting and development, and a bundle of receiver injuries has grounded the offensive attack. Both teams arrive in poor states on that side of the ball, and the game is likely to devolve into a rock fight.
Oklahoma’s offense is far apart from the two Tiger tormentors. Alabama’s offense ranks 3rd overall in SP+, and Texas A&M is 19th; Oklahoma is 56th. Parker Fleming’s ECKEL metric measures how often teams create scoring chances and what they do with them. The Sooners have created scoring chances on only 34.5% of their possessions, the 111th-ranked number in that metric. They rank 119th in points per ECKEL, at 2.83. For all the weeping and gnashing of teeth and rending of garments about Missouri’s own offensive woes, they rank 40th in ECKEL rate (49%) and a mere 99th in points per ECKEL (3.19). That’s downright Mike Martz-ian compared to Oklahoma.
The biggest culprit for Oklahoma has been offensive line play. Position coach Bill Bedenbaugh is regarded as one of the best OL coaches in the country, a reputation built on developing monstrous fronts that ran GT counter to perfection during the Lincoln Riley heyday. It’s not hard to scan a Sunday afternoon and see his proteges all over the field. But there has been a drain of talent in Norman from his group, thanks to lackadaisical recruiting and some transfer portal whiffs.
The Sooners rank 91st in PFF pass blocking grading, and 116th in run blocking. This is a bottom of the barrel unit, and one that the Tigers must take advantage of on Saturday night. Oklahoma ranks 130th on early down EPA; Mizzou’s defense is 52nd. They will need to capitalize and put freshman quarterback Jackson Arnold in positions where they can attack and be creative, because Corey Batoon has been excellent in these spots all year. Mizzou’s defense is third in the country on 3rd/4th down EPA.
Mizzou’s offense will have its own tall task on Saturday. There is one major unknown: who will suit up at quarterback? If it is Brady Cook, Mizzou has a chance to lean on efficiency and keep Oklahoma off balance. The Sooners defense is good, but not all-galaxy; they rank 21st in Success Rate, and 68th in Success Rate allowed per dropback. At the 76th percentile for explosives allowed, the Sooners don’t tend to allow big plays, although if you are going to get them, they are more likely to be found through the air.
That will be a tall order for Drew Pyne, however. Perhaps you can click your heels together three times and wish on two weeks of practice reps and a bespoke game plan. Perhaps the player who helped Notre Dame in 2022 is still inside him. Perhaps. But we have had about eight quarters of Drew Pyne so far as a Missouri Tiger, and the results are catastrophic. There is little to suggest much will change against an Oklahoma defense that is in the 90th percentile for Havoc created, according to gameonpaper.
Cook or Pyne, it will be a rockfight. But there is a difference between a rockfight you can win with 21 points, and a rockfight you are destined to lose despite holding the other team to 17. Cook gives you the first. The Missouri defense will deliver the other half of the recipe.
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