Missouri defensive end Johnny Walker, Jr. (15) celebrates shoving down Buffalo quarterback C.J. Ogbonna (7) in the first half of a game against Buffalo on Saturday, September 7, 2024, at Faurot Field in Columbia. (Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation)
Analyzing Mizzou’s upcoming opponent with an analytics-based deep dive into the scouting and matchups that have this game in the balance.
Welcome to the Auburn edition of Between the Numbers, where we preview Mizzou’s game with an analytics deep dive. I’ll look into tendencies, weak spots, strong spots, opportunities — areas the Tigers can exploit and things that they will need to step up. I will use advanced metrics such as PFF charting (and occasionally grading, although that system is a broadsword, not a scalpel). There could be a heavy dose of EPA, pulled from sources like Game on Paper and College Football Insiders. And, of course, some good ol’ fashioned SP+, as well.
This article will be less a big-picture list of goals that the Tigers need to do well, like in Nate Edwards’ indispensable weekly preview. It will be more of a spotlight on key matchups for this week’s opponent.
We are lucky to have a highly analytics literate readership here at Rock M Nation. If you want to discuss any of this content further, push back on some of my conclusions, or ask questions about the numbers, please post in the comments, on RockM+, or reach out on Twitter. Let’s get to it.
The second half of Mizzou’s season begins this week, as they take on the Auburn Tigers in their seventh game of the season. Actually, with two bye weeks, this schedule is more of a trimester situation – and this game is a chance to make sure the second trimester is not a total disaster.
A loss puts Mizzou at 1-2 in league play with a pending trip to Alabama before the second bye. A grumbling fan base would be full-on howling at that point. Luckily, the Tigers get a team that is eminently beatable. A win over Auburn would be their first in the fourth try as SEC compadres.
Auburn comes into the game at 2-4, on a three-game losing streak in league play, although their slump was just broken up with their own bye week. We will see how the team prepared with their time off, but the story of Auburn’s season has been as much about their intangibles as it has been their tangible on-field results.
Head coach Hugh Freeze spends any chance he gets in front of a lectern sniping at his quarterbacks, his team, their execution, and the overall state of his roster. While this column is ostensibly about numbers and cold hard statistical evidence, there’s also a chance this Auburn team is going to play a big ol’ game of feelingsball.
If they do rally and play their best, Auburn is a team with an inefficient offense down-to-down but with an explosive passing element. Sound familiar? That recipe was favored by both Boston College and Vanderbilt. Veteran Payton Thorne pilots this inconsistent attack – and draws the brunt of Freeze’s public ire – and has resumed full-time quarterback duties after an early interception binge earned him a spot on the bench.
Thorne’s completion percentage is only 59.2%, and his Average Depth of Target is 12.9 yards. He lets it fly, and has tossed six picks on the season. Heating Thorne up is key; his completion percentage drops to 42% when pressured, which has been on 32.5% of his dropbacks. The key is getting pressure while keeping defenders in the pattern: all six of his interceptions have been on plays where he was not blitzed.
Defensive coordinator Corey Batoon will have to fiddle with the knobs when it comes to getting quarterback pressures. Joe Moore, who has been backing up Johnny Walker, Jr at “joker” and Khalil Jacobs, Triston Newson’s understudy at outside linebacker, are both out for the season. Missouri has been playing a very deep rotation on the defensive side of the ball, but will likely increase the workload for the “1s” in this situation.
Both starters have proven they can handle the larger workload. Last season, Johnny Walker Jr averaged 48 snaps per game, which is down to 35 this season. Joe Moore’s 12 snaps per game will fit tidily into JWJ’s workload, with the occasional cup of coffee for Jakhai Lang or Williams Nwaneri.
The same will apply for the linebackers. Newson averaged 55 snaps per game once he took over the starting role; he has enjoyed a downright leisurely 29 per game this year, and theoretically could take on Jacobs’ 23 snaps per game. However, Newson is working back from his own injury this week, and so Jacobs’ work could go to true freshman Nicholas Rodriguez, who was all over the field in UMass last week in his first action since Murray State.
Getting pressure on Thorne with just four rushers will be paramount to the gameplan; with two key reserves now out for the season, I expect the TIgers to lean on their battle-tested veterans to make life miserable for the Auburn passing attack.
When Missouri has the ball, they will face an Auburn defense that has been generous against the pass. Even Michael Hawkins, Oklahoma’s occasionally overwhelmed true freshman quarterback, had his best day as a passer against DJ Durkin’s defense. The Tigers are tough up front, but rank in the 29th percentile for preventing explosive pass plays. Of course, as we know, this is a battle of a stoppable force meeting a moveable object. The biggest weak spot of Mizzou’s offense is the explosive pass, checking in at the 24th percentile.
Our Tigers could take advantage and create some big plays. But they will also have a good shot to win the game by good ol’ fashioned ball control, something they have excelled at all year. Auburn’s inefficient and boom-or-bust nature – on both sides of the ball – can be exploited by a team ready to win on a down-to-down basis. And that is what Mizzou can do against Auburn, and control the game.
Parker Fleming of CFB Insiders has devised a metric called ECKEL, a measure of a team’s quality drives. By comparing how often a team can create ECKELs on offense and allow them on defense, you get a sense of their ability to control the game. Mizzou is 10th in the country in ECKEL ratio, and Auburn is 87th. Mizzou will have another huge weapon in the ball control game. Their average starting field position is 20th; Auburn’s, 102nd.
As Missouri strides headlong into another conference game, the Tigers will circle the wagons. There might be more opportunities in this matchup to see the things that thrill the fanbase: exciting new youngsters on defense, and explosive passing on offense. That would be nice! But as the season progresses, the Tigers will be more likely to rely on their veterans and their strengths as a ball-control team.
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