Between The Numbers: Keys to an Upset

Oct 24, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Missouri defensive tackle Chris McClellan (7) celebrates sacking Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne (1, back) in the third quarter of a game against Auburn on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, at Faurot Field in Columbia. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

Analyzing Mizzou’s upcoming opponent with an analytics-based deep dive into the scouting and matchups that have this game in the balance.

Welcome to the Alabama edition of Between the Numbers, where we preview Mizzou’s game with an analytics deep dive. I’ll look into tendencies, weak spots, strong spots, opportunities — areas the Tigers can exploit and things that they will need to step up. I will use advanced metrics such as PFF charting (and occasionally grading, although that system is a broadsword, not a scalpel). There could be a heavy dose of EPA, pulled from sources like Game on Paper and College Football Insiders. And, of course, some good ol’ fashioned SP+, as well.

This article will be less a big-picture list of goals that the Tigers need to do well, like in Nate Edwards’ indispensable weekly preview. It will be more of a spotlight on key matchups for this week’s opponent.

We are lucky to have a highly analytics literate readership here at Rock M Nation. If you want to discuss any of this content further, push back on some of my conclusions, or ask questions about the numbers, please post in the comments, on RockM+, or reach out on Twitter. Let’s get to it.

The headliner game of Mizzou football’s traveling itinerary arrives, as the TIgers head to Tuscaloosa to take on a program overloaded with national championship trophies. The task of toppling the Tide, once seeming impossible on paper, will be a touch easier than it looked before Nick Saban’s retirement and the subsequent churn at Alabama.

The Tide are coming off a month of shaky efforts; it has been a generation since Alabama had two losses before Halloween. The fanbase has moved beyond “restless” and into “disgruntled.” Under Saban’s reign, you could count on this program to bounce back with a vengeance after a lackluster performance. If he were still at the helm, Mizzou would be walking into a hellmouth this weekend. And while Kalen DeBoer is a great football coach, this is all new ground for him and his adopted program.

Missouri has also played some uneven football, but they enter this week coming off the high of a miracle win. As two-touchdown underdogs, Eli Drinkwitz’s ballclub does have an inside straight chance to pull off the upset. It is unlikely, but not impossible; Bill Connelly’s SP+ gives Alabama a 70% chance at winning. Parker Fleming’s EPA model, 74%. The Vegas moneyline (Alabama -550) says 84%.

If the Tigers are going to spring the trap, they have a few key tangible mismatches to attack, but one important intangible that could go in their favor, too. We don’t usually talk about intangibles and feelings in this piece, but can you imagine if Mizzou grabs an early lead? The fans there are already on edge, so the vibes in that stadium might get weird. An early start for Mizzou, a turnover by Alabama, and who knows what the psyche of that stadium could be like? Early havoc and quarterback pressure on defense, and a crisp scripted drive on offense, will be the key to a quick start.

But as the game progresses, Mizzou has a pair of weak points on Alabama it will need to exploit. The Tide have a clear edge in almost every facet of the game, but even the Death Star had a vulnerability in the nuclear reactor shaft. There are a few openings for Mizzou to hit that one-in-a-million shot.

Firstly, Alabama’s secondary has fallen off a cliff this year from the typical Saban-era standards. Yes, the players were highly-touted recruits, but this is not a cohesive unit. They haven’t passed the eye test; every opponent has been able to get wide open receivers against the Tide, it’s just a matter if they have been able to capitalize (Vandy, Georgia) or not (WKU, USF). And now starting safety Keon Sabb is down with an injury.

But this vulnerability is only against deep shots. The Bama pass defense is 89th percentile against pass success rate, and 30th percentile against pass explosives. Teams can hit big plays on them. This will require Mizzou’s passing attack to find a new level, or the receivers to uncover some previously hidden catch-and-run talents. The Cook-led group has dipped to a moribund 17th percentile in passing explosives.

The other long shot is that Alabama’s offense is sputtering right now. The group that tore through Georgia for the first half with a bespoke gameplan centered on screens and empty backfields is long gone. Back to back games against Tennessee and South Carolina have exposed a unit that is very vulnerable to havoc and aggressive defensive lines. Now, those teams each have top-five DL units nationally; Mizzou’s group falls short of that tier.

That said, with an offense that checks in at the 12th percentile nationally in Havoc allowed, these Tide can be forced into mistakes. Jalen Milroe is slumping right now; he has tossed four interceptions and has been sacked seven times in the past two weeks. And with the offensive line checking in at a lowly 14th percentile for Stuff Rate allowed, teams can hold Alabama’s rushing attack back with TFL’s and no gains.

Unlike the opportunity in offense, this mismatch is one the Tigers have shown a built-in ability to exploit. Mizzou’s defense is 11th nationally in PFF’s pass rush team grade. They are also 78th percentile in Stuff Rate. The plan here is stops and TFLs on early downs, and then collapse Milroe’s pocket and force him into mistakes on 3rd and long. The average Mizzou defensive third down face this year is 8.07, with a 95th percentile success rate allowed on third downs.

Even though the Tigers have these two exploitable areas, the game is still not in their favor. Jalen Milroe is a dynamic talent, Brady Cook’s injury is worrisome, and a tough road environment is not the best place to find a new hidden team talent. In all likelihood, a Bama team that ranks 4th overall in EPA margin will be able to put away a Mizzou team that ranks 32nd. The Tigers are underdogs for a reason— it might be improbable, but it is not impossible.

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