Between the Numbers: Iowa Hawkeyes Preview

Dec 29, 2024 | Uncategorized

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Missouri wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. (1) points to the end zone after a major reception in the fourth quarter of a game against Arkansas on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024, at Faurot Field. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)

Previewing Mizzou’s bowl game with an analytics-based deep dive into the scouting and matchups that have this game in the balance.

Welcome to the Music City Bowl Game edition of Between the Numbers, where we preview Mizzou’s game with an analytics deep dive. I’ll look into tendencies, weak spots, strong spots, opportunities — areas the Tigers can exploit and things that they will need to step up. I will use advanced metrics such as PFF charting (and occasionally grading, although that system is a broadsword, not a scalpel). There will be a heavy dose of EPA, pulled from sources like Game on Paper and College Football Insiders. And, of course, some good ol’ fashioned SP+, as well.

We are lucky to have a highly analytics literate readership here at Rock M Nation. If you want to discuss any of this content further, push back on some of my conclusions, or ask questions about the numbers, please post in the comments, on RockM+, or reach out on Twitter. Let’s get to it.


Last year at this time, I wrote a new kind of analytics deep dive preview for Rock M Nation to prepare for Missouri’s Cotton Bowl matchup against Ohio State. That, in turn, became this regular weekly piece during the 2024 season. Unlike Nate Edwards’ analytics preview which takes core “key to the game” metrics and applies them to the upcoming opponent, I wanted to look at each specific game through the vast array of available matchup-specific metrics.

Now my series has come full circle, as I write about Mizzou preparing to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Music City Bowl. Much like last year’s postseason finale, this year’s bowl game also has a high chance of devolving into a defensive slog. (The over/under is 40 points; that is Mizzou’s lowest total of the season.) While the broad strokes of the game seem easy to project, the specifics of how it happens are a little tougher to predict. Both teams have two crucial star players opting out.

Iowa, of course, is famous for their suffocating defense. Coordinator Phil Parker has been consistent in fielding elite units during his time under Kirk Ferentz, but this year’s outfit has taken a few steps back. They are thin in the secondary, and not as lights out against the rush as for their usual standards.

Iowa’s thin cornerback room could present a matchup advantage for Missouri, even without Luther Burden III for the Tigers. Theo Wease Jr. should have a big game; Iowa’s star corner Jermari Harris has opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. Without Harris, the Hawkeyes will rely on Deshaun Lee (66 PFF coverage grade), TJ Hall (59), and John Nestor (55). Missouri turned the tide in the second half of the Cotton Bowl by hitting key big plays on the sideline to Wease and Marquis Johnson, and should have the ability to do the same against Iowa.

The run defense for the Hawkeyes has also slipped this year. While linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson might be the best duo in the country, the overall team effort against the run has been good, but inefficient. They rank 88th in rushing success rate, according to gameonpaper’s EPA-based metrics. Missouri’s offense is 15th in the country in the same category.

Rushing the ball certainly won’t come easy against Iowa, but again, Mizzou plugged away and found holes when it mattered late against Ohio State’s fearsome front. The Tigers faced three teams this year that rank in the top ten in this metric (Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Boston College) and were hardly shut down by any of them. Eli Drinkwitz and Kirby Moore love an efficient rush game, and could find enough efficiency on the ground.

One of the keys to the game will be scoring chances. Parker Fleming’s ECKEL metric is great for measuring scoring chances, much better than raw stats like “red zone scoring percentage.” An ECKEL is defined as a possession that involves a first down inside the opponent’s 40. Mizzou’s offense is middle of the pack in creating those chances: 35th in the nation, but a dreadful 93rd in points per ECKEL. Iowa’s defense is 2nd nationally in preventing ECKELs, and 28th in points allowed per ECKEL.

The flip side of the ball is the downside of Iowa’s one-sided play. The Hawkeyes offense ranks 107th in creating ECKELs. This isn’t the pure bottom of the FBS barrel offense that they were under Kirk’s son Brian; new offensive coordinator Tim Lester has brought a whisper of a shadow of competency to this side of the ball. The Hawkeyes were 92nd in Adjusted EPA per play; a far cry from good, but about 40 spots better than they were the prior two seasons.

The two key personnel that drove this improvement will not be playing Monday in Nashville. Quarterback Cade McNamara was injured and out for the season, and has been replaced by Brendan Sullivan, who does add a touch more mobility. But the driving force of Iowa’s improvement was running back Kaleb Johnson, arguably the best non-Ashton Jeanty ballcarrier in the country. Johnson – and his 1,726 scrimmage yards and 23 total scores – has also opted out of the contest. Iowa will lean on their understudy backs against a Mizzou front that is intact and ranked 20th in EPA/rush allowed.

One area where Iowa will have a massive advantage is special teams. The Hawkeyes are consistently excellent in the third phase of the game, and rank 7th in SP+’s measurement of special teams. They play the field position game as well as anyone, ranking second nationally in Net Field Position. Missouri is solid in this metric, at 23rd, but is prone to special teams disaster plays, too.

For a game that will be played on the margins, Missouri must not commit any massive self-inflicted wounds in special teams. They have an opportunity to control the game against an Iowa offense that makes a habit of going three-and-out, and has been a touch below their normal elite unit on defense. The Tigers won multiple nail biters against defense-first outfits this year, and have a chance to get their 10th win in similar fashion.

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