
Previewing Mizzou’s upcoming opponent with an analytics-based deep dive into the scouting and matchups that have this game in the balance.
Welcome to the Week 14 Arkansas edition of Between the Numbers, where we preview Mizzou’s game with an analytics deep dive. I’ll look into tendencies, weak spots, strong spots, opportunities — areas the Tigers can exploit and things that they will need to step up. I will use advanced metrics such as PFF charting (and occasionally grading, although that system is a broadsword, not a scalpel). There will be a heavy dose of EPA, pulled from sources like Game on Paper and College Football Insiders. And, of course, some good ol’ fashioned SP+, as well.
This article will be less a big-picture list of goals that the Tigers need to do well, like in Nate Edwards’ indispensable weekly preview. It will be more of a spotlight on key matchups for this week’s opponent.
We are lucky to have a highly analytics literate readership here at Rock M Nation. If you want to discuss any of this content further, push back on some of my conclusions, or ask questions about the numbers, please post in the comments, on RockM+, or reach out on Twitter. Let’s get to it.
The Mizzou Tigers head home after a pair of road contests to complete their regular season against the rival Razorbacks.
(Yes, sorry, it is a rivalry. It is not THE rivalry, but it is A rivalry).
Mizzou’s offense has stretched its legs in the last six quarters after being held without a touchdown in the first half against South Carolina. But things started clicking in the second half, and other than a glitchy opening — what else is new — at Mississippi State, the Tigers rolled in Starkville, too. Both games showcased timely passing and a heavy dose of bullying ground offense.
Unfortunately, that style probably will not be effective against the Razorbacks. The Hawgs check in at 29th in overall SP+, a healthy bounce back season to save head coach Sam Pittman’s job. They are 35th in offense and 32nd in defense, on paper a well-balanced squad. But under the hood is a team with some severe, potentially fatally flaws, and some strengths that Mizzou will need to gameplan around.
Arkansas’s offense has rebounded in a major way after a dreadful 2023, thanks to the brain trust of Bobby Petrino and a pair of dynamic transfers from the mountains out west. Long-striding dual threat quarterback Taylan Green from Boise State and workhouse running back Ja’Quinden Jackson from Utah have brought much needed dynamic playing to Fayetteville.
The duo has resurrected the Hogs rush attack, combining for 258 carries for 1,171 yards and 19 scores. Arkansas is ninth overall in rushing EPA per game, and elite at both success rate and explosiveness on the ground. It will be a stiff test for a Missouri front that has strong metrics against the rush, but had poor days against both of the elite rushing attacks it faced (Texas A&M, Alabama).
But the Arkansas offense has a fatal flaw: Havoc. They are #1 with a bullet in terms of fumbling the ball, and Green himself has accounted for 20 turnovers. The Hogs rank outside of the top 100 in terms of Havoc surrendered, and Mizzou will need to create negative plays. Arkansas is going to get their yards; Mizzou will need to create takeaways, sacks, and TFL’s to prevent the drives from becoming points.
When Missouri has the ball, they will need to have a specific game plan, probably one more pass-happy than Drinkwitz prefers. Arkansas has been strong stuffing the running game (6th in EPA/play), but very bad against the pass (110th). Opponents have keyed in on this discrepancy, as Arkansas’s defense ranks 23rd in Parker Fleming’s Rush Rate Over Expected. His metric measures how often a team calls a run play (or a defense faces one), compared to the average playcall for that down and distance. Mizzou’s offense ranks 94th in RROE, one of the most run-heavy teams in the sport.
Why the discrepancy for Arkansas? The team ranks 7th in the country in PFF’s rush defense grading, but has a tough time getting after the passer. Landon Jackson is a quality rusher off the edge, but not a single Razorback other than Jackson has more than 14 pressures on the season. A one-man-band pass rush can be easily neutralized.
The Arkansas defense struggles overall in coverage, but a real soft spot is linebacker. The rotation of Brad Spence, Xavian Sorey, and Stephen Dix have combined to allow 45 receptions on 60 targets for 450 yards, a clean ten yards per catch. Mizzou would be wise to lean on the passing game this weekend, but especially targeting Brett Norfleet and running back options out of the backfield.
Mizzou will have one more major advantage: field position. All of those turnovers and negative plays, along with Mizzou’s propensity for long drives, leads to a distinct field position advantage for the Tigers. Arkansas ranks 114th in net field position, continually putting themselves into disadvantageous possessions. Missouri is 25th in the same metric, and has a better track record of controlling games.
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