Gambling: The sure way of getting nothing for something

Week #8 opening lines have been hung, so in this space we take a look at what the oddsmakers are laying down around the SEC and a few other games of interest.

With that, as always, if you’re going to dabble, please do so responsibly. Don’t forget, any line that seems too good to be true likely is, and the sharps in Vegas know what they’re doing.

Here’s a look at the SEC opening lines and a few other thoughts, with all lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, who is an SBNation partner. All odds are subject to adjust during the week, and all kick times listed are central. TV provider listed in parentheses. The Nuggets of Wisdom (NoW) are free of charge, so you’re getting what you paid for there!

What are some of your favorite plays this week? Leave them in the comments section below and we’ll compare notes.

Saturday, Oct. 19th

• 11 am (ESPN) – Auburn at Mizzou (-7.0 / 51.5 total)

NoW – Who the hell knows anymore? Would any result here surprise you? The only thing I’ll go on the record as guaranteeing in this game is that it will be won by the Tigers…

• 11:45 am (SECN) – South Carolina at Oklahoma (-2.5 / 40.5 total)

NoW – Very low total here and essentially a toss-up on the spread. I get the feeling the public will be coming in heavy on Carolina after their near upset of ‘Bama combined with OU getting clubbed by Texas last week…

• 2:30 pm (ABC) – Alabama at Tennessee (+2.5 / 56.0 total)

NoW – This game looked a lot more important two weeks ago when both teams were undefeated and top-five. Both narrowly averted disaster last week. Still should be a great matchup that will likely be an elimination game for SEC Championship purposes…

• 3:15 pm (SECN) – Texas A&M at Mississippi State (+15.5 / 56.0 total)

NoW – Only reason I can think to watch this one is if you really like the God-awful color maroon. State played admirably in a 10-point road defeat at Georgia last week, while A&M is coming off a bye week…

• 6 pm (ESPN) – LSU at Arkansas (+3.0 / 57.5 total)

NoW – Thought this one might open with LSU a little heavier favorite, books are giving a lot of respect to the ‘Hogs here…

• 6 pm (ESPN+/SECN+) – Ball State at Vanderbilt (-26.5 / 58.5 total)

NoW – Holy cow when’s the last time you saw Vandy as a near four-TD favorite over anyone?…

• 6:30 pm (ABC) – Georgia at Texas (-3.5 / 57.0 total)

NoW – Another one I thought might be a little bigger number, more like 5 or 6. ‘Dawgs getting a lot of respect to basically say it’s a toss-up minus the homefield advantage…

• 6:45 pm (SECN) – Kentucky at Florida (-2.0 / 42.0 total)

NoW – Okay I know Florida just narrowly lost at Tennessee, but this one seems a little bit of an overreaction. Remember, Kentucky just won at Ole Miss two weeks ago….

Non-SEC games of interest

Saturday, Oct. 19th

• 11 am (FOX) – Nebraska at Indiana (-6.0 / 51.0 total)

NoW – Lots of red in this one, we’ll see who’s more legit among the two upstart programs. Can Indiana handle the mounting pressure as they continue to be one of the surprise teams of the season? The Huskers finally won a one-score game in their last outing, is that a sign they’re turning the corner?…

• 11 am (ABC) – Miami, Fla. at Louisville (+3.5 / 61.0 total)

NoW – The ‘Ville did a nice face plant in their first big test of the year at Notre Dame three weeks ago, and doubled it up with a second-straight loss to SMU that cast doubt upon their legitimacy. This would be a “get-right” game of huge proportions if they could pull the upset over star-crossed Miami. How will the ‘Canes pull one out of the fire this week?…

• 6:30 pm (FOX) – Kansas State at West Virginia (+3.0 / 54.0 total)

NoW – West Virginia has been a disappointment this season, at 3-3 overall. Why is this number so low?…

The graduate transfer’s pick quelled any comeback attempt from UMass at the end of the first half.

Deep concern wasn’t in the building quite yet. But it was perched somewhere close to McGuirk Alumni Stadium.

With Mizzou leading 21-3 towards the end of the first half, UMass was stringing together consecutive positive plays on offense. The drive included a 39-yard run by defensive back Te’Rai Powell on a fake punt that gave the Minutemen new life.

To preface, an 18-point lead is large in any football context. However, these circumstances were different, a combination of two factors that made alarm bells ring louder for the Tigers.

Mizzou’s season leading up to Saturday had been, to many, underwhelming. The sting of a 31-point shellacking to No. 14 Texas A&M the week prior still seemed prevalent; in a game that was to be a test of Mizzou’s legitimacy at a national level, the Tigers fell terribly flat, as the myriad of warning signs flashed in the four games previous showed up in College Station.

Then, there was the present day. Mizzou’s bizarre trip to UMass was ripe for a rebound; the Tigers entered Saturday as almost a 30-point favorite against the 1-5 Minutemen, which is what made the end-of-half march by the home team more intriguing.

After the successful fake punt, a 13-yard run by CJ Hester put UMass at Mizzou’s nine-yard line with 70 seconds remaining in the half. UMass went two yards forwards, then two yards backwards to set up a third-and-nine. Quarterback Taisun Phommachanh dropped back to pass and fired a dart over the middle.

Earlier in the week, Corey Flagg Jr. had this to say about what went wrong defensively against Texas A&M.

“I think it was just a lot of guys…trying to make a play instead of just, including myself, instead of just doing our assignment, doing our job and playing with the defense,” Flagg said.

But what if you could remain within the defense and make a play? With the Minutemen threatening, Flagg baked a cake and ate it, too.

During this past Tuesday’s edition of “Tiger Talk”, linebackers coach DJ Smith inadvertently foreshadowed Flagg running like the wind that whipped all afternoon in Amherst.

“He can really, really run. He’s faster than what his tape shows,” Smith told Mike Kelly. “He’s a very instinctual player.”

While Smith was complimentary of Flagg’s wheels, the graduate transfer took a more self-depreciating route after the game.

“I need to go to speed school,” Flagg said.

Although he couldn’t take the interception all the way to the end zone, the Miami transfer’s hurricane of a turnover put Mizzou at the UMass nine-yard line with nine seconds to go. Although Brady Cook was sacked on the next play, there was still time for Blake Craig to kick a field goal, which he did so successfully to complete a 10-point swing that stomped out any spark of a Minutemen revival.

For a defense that’d experienced lapses in coverage over the past few weeks (including Saturday), Flagg’s shining moment proved all the more valuable. It was Mizzou’s first takeaway since Dreyden Norwood’s interception against Boston College.

The moment was reminiscent of something Flagg’s former UM teammate, current Tennessee Titans linebacker James Williams, told me at the Reese’s Senior Bowl in February when asked about how he overcomes in-game adversity.

“I can’t be 11 people out there trying to make every play,” Williams said. “I’ve just got to do my job and make sure my teammate does his job. We’ll all be successful together.”

It was a celebratory day for not just Corey Flagg, but his brother, Caleb, who forced a fumble on that was recovered by Shemar McNeil in the fourth quarter. Caleb was praised numerous times by players and coaches throughout fall camp, and he recorded his first big play of the 2024 season with Mizzou up big late in the game.

“I told y’all, he’s a dog,” Corey said. “He’s better than me. I’m dead serious.”

Only time will tell if Caleb can surpass his older brother. For now, the two can enjoy their fruitful outings in Amherst before a trip back to Columbia to take on Auburn next Saturday.

Winning is hard, so when it looks easy we should appreciate it.

Yesterday was a boring day of football for the Missouri Tigers.

It was needed.

Winning 45-3 over a fairly hapless UMass team doesn’t wash away the week before, but now for five of the six weeks of football the Tigers have played they’ve gotten the results they needed. Maybe the best part about yesterday was that it was boring.

I watched the game from my couch and chuckled on the second play when Luther Burden took a jet sweep 61 yards for a touchdown. I yawned after a 13 play 80 yard drive to score the Tigers second TD on the day. As they were going up 21-0 I was sipping coffee, Maybe there were angry comments at every slight error, and some general weirdness in the game thread yesterday, but the Tigers were up 24-3 at halftime and barely broke a sweat the rest of the way.

Mizzou got caught on a fake punt, and definitely had some coverage issues, but UMass had 11 drives and gained just 237 yards. Quick math says that’s 21.5 yards per drive. Meanwhile the offense scored on 6 of their first 7 drives and 7 of their first 9 before turning things over the backups. And only one of those was with a short field, ironically enough that’s when they kicked the field goal. That’s an efficient day of football.

With the previous week’s performance hanging over the program, one could foresee a road trip to a place like Amherst to play a team like UMass as a trap. Weird things happen when you travel to play against a team where you’re favored by 30 points. Hell, before the game if you asked me to place a bet, I might’ve taken UMass with the spread. Like many of you, I figured the Tigers would show up looking hung over and win convincingly but only by like 21 points or something.

But they didn’t, they won by 42 points, and that was with a full quarter of the backups failing to score on three drives.

Being boring when you need to be is a good thing. Mizzou was really boring in the first two games. Less so in the next two games, but at least Vanderbilt has proven to be a good win. I do understand the feelings of resentment for the way things went down at Texas A&M. But as I said last week, if there’s a year you can afford a mulligan it’s this one.

Eli Drinkwitz isn’t a perfect coach with a perfect football program. He’s a good coach with a good program. But even the best coaches and best teams have weeks where things get away from you. One of the things I really like about Drink is the 1-0 mentality. All you can do is control how you play one play at time, one series at a time, one game at a time. You can’t control what’s behind you, you can’t control what’s in front of you. You can only control what’s right here in this moment.

I have no idea where this is headed. I’ve watched enough football this year to know it’s nearly impossible to say. Nobody seems to be all that great, well maybe except Texas. The Longhorns have yet to be challenged. Ohio State and Oregon played a tight close game, so they’re probably good. But you don’t have to worry about anyone who isn’t in the SEC until the regular season is over. And the three highest ranked teams after Texas all struggled at home against unranked opponents.

If anything that should be a lesson to Mizzou, and its fans. For the Tigers themselves, anyone can be beaten by anyone and anywhere. Playing at home doesn’t save you. The only thing you can do is go 1-0.

Not everything is ever as bad as it seems. Mizzou is 5-1 with Auburn coming to down for homecoming. It doesn’t matter how you beat them, just beat them. Go 1-0, and then worry about the rest later.

Other SEC Scores:

• Texas (1) 34, Oklahoma (18) 3
• Georgia (5) 34, Mississippi State 24
• Alabama (7) 27, South Carolina 25
• Tennessee (8) 23, Florida 17
• LSU (13) 29, Ole Miss (9) 26
• Vanderbilt 20, Kentucky 13
• #15 Texas A&M – bye
• Arkansas – bye
• Auburn – bye