Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images
It’s time to make a statement.
As much as we all wanted to feel…something? anything?…after the UMass game, that matchup was never going to provide anything to the fan base, other than maybe a few highlights and an official win blessed by the NCAA.
But here’s the game that can give you something. Vindication. Hope. A chance to wash out the bad taste of A&M. A validation of those holding out to the thought that Missouri is a Playoff-caliber team that had one of the worst singular days in recent history.
But it requires beating an Auburn team that is much better than its record indicates and has not lost to Missouri since 1973.
Here’s the preview I did of Auburn back in June. Here’s the breakdown for this week:
When Missouri Has the Ball
Missouri’s Offense vs. Auburn’s Defense
So the bad news first: Auburn’s defense is excellent. Currently 25th in SP+, it’s almost as if they were designed specifically to eliminate Mizzou’s offense. Specifically, Mizzou is an efficiency-based offense that runs the ball and throws short, hoping for YAC to move the chains. And Auburn’s defense likes to stop the easy stuff, play tight coverage to keep completion percentages low, and create a lot of pressure to keep the quarterback on the move.
The last time Missouri played a defense ranked inside the SP+ Top 30, they were totally wiped out and held to 10 points. Let’s hope this time it goes better.
Be Efficient Through The Air
Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Missouri will run the ball because that’s what they always do, but Auburn ranks 18th in yards per successful rush and 25th in opportunity rate allowed. So if the Good Guy Tigers can’t be their usual efficient selves on the ground then they’re going to have to do it through the air. If they can eclipse the season-long average of 38% success that Auburn currently has that would be great; let’s set the bar at 42% and see what happens.
Generate Explosive Plays
Eric Canha-Imagn Images
I cannot stress enough how perfectly bad this matchup is for Mizzou. Auburn plays to remove efficiency and allow explosives, and Kirby’s offenses this year only have efficiency and very little (or reliable) explosiveness. But it has to happen to have success against this defense! I’ll set the goal at seven (7) explosive plays…but it probably needs to be higher if the efficiency stuff isn’t working.
Finish Your Drives
Eric Canha-Imagn Images
Auburn doesn’t give up a ton of scoring opportunities and, when they do, they’re 26th in the country at limiting the damage. The Bad Guy Tigers have given up point totals of 21, 19, 24, 27, and 31 against FBS competition. However, in that same time span their offense has scored 14, 45, 14, 21, and 13. The point is, Mizzou doesn’t need much but they need to capitalize. 24 points sounds right! So, if Mizzou maintains Auburn’s average of 3.6 points give up per opportunity, then they need to generate 8 scoring opportunities.
When Auburn Has the Ball
Missouri’s Defense vs. Auburn’s Offense
Despite juggling quarterbacks Auburn’s offense is a lot better than you’d think it is. The problem, of course, is that it needs explosive plays to function properly and, much like 3-pointers in basketball, those are not always reliable. The ground game is the efficiency mechanism while the passing game gets the big plays and that is a recipe that can certainly work against a Mizzou defense that doesn’t generate a ton of pressure and is prone to getting lit up over the top.
Win On 3rd Down
Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Again, you wouldn’t think of it when you hear stories of Auburn’s offensive ineptitude, but they’re really not that bad at moving the ball. The issues are three-fold: they aren’t very good on 3rd-down, they stink inside the red zone, and they tend to have a crippling turnover when they absolutely cannot afford to. And, with that in mind, let’s make sure that Auburn’s 3rd-down woes continue through this game. On the year Auburn’s offense has a 41.3% success rate while Missouri is allowing a 27.8% conversion rate; let’s aim to get that to under 38% for the game.
Limit the Scoring Damage
Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Even if Missouri can’t force a turnover or stop them on 3rd-down, at least make sure that the points scored are minimal. Mizzou’s defense isn’t super great at this, allowing 4.38 points per scoring opportunity. But even with Auburn’s foibles inside the 20-yard line, they are still averaging 4.55 points per opportunity. Keep the trips short and the points low and hopefully they can keep Auburn to 3 scoring opportunities at around 4.5 points per opportunity.
Conclusion
This is going to be rough. Because of their record and the opponents they’ve lost to, outsiders are going to write this Auburn team off as having no chance at doing anything on the road against Missouri. But, again, even in their losses they had a 93% win expectancy against Arkansas and a 74% win expectancy against Oklahoma, meaning their adjusted record is (with some rounding) 4-2. You wouldn’t overlook a 4-2 team, right?
The common denominator in their losses was a key turnover that flipped the game on its head. And while Peyton Thorne and Hank Brown are not very good quarterbacks when it comes to ball security, they are still competent at running this offense. If the turnovers don’t occur then Mizzou’s defense will need to be much better at creating pressure and disrupting the pass than they have shown in the first six games. And, offensively, Luther and Theo and Mookie need to show an ability to reliably move the chains as an answer to a killer Auburn defensive front.
I don’t feel good about this one at all but, hey, at least its at home (which means Eli is allowed to win it). This is a chance for Drinkwitz and his Tigers to make a statement on how the rest of this year goes. Just win.
0 Comments