Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Welcome to the next most important game of the year.
Well, here we are. The one game on the schedule that even the most partisan of Mizzou fans admitted before the season started would probably be a loss. And it’s occurring right after Mizzou needed the most heroic of comebacks against a feisty Auburn team at home.
Alabama is a tough team to beat. But they aren’t Nick Saban’s Alabama.
They’re still way more talented than Mizzou, don’t even start to think that the talent gap is shrunk in one single year. But the philosophies of how Bama plays and the legendary discipline that Saban squads used to have are gone. Teams still need an A+ game to beat the Tide but it no longer requires an A++ game plus luck.
Here’s the preview I did of Alabama in July. Let’s take a look at the matchups for this week.
When Missouri Has the Ball
Missouri’s Offense vs. Alabama’s Defense
Vanderbilt and Tennessee both beat Alabama this year but did so with the Tide taking a road trip. Mizzou will be playing at Tuscaloosa which only adds to the difficulty factor. But if you like at what Vandy and the Vols did, they both went about it differently on offense:
Vanderbilt went glacially slow, shrunk the game down to 8 offensive possessions, and only punted twice. They had zero turnovers, kicked only two field goals, and finished with touchdowns on the remaining four possessions, powered Diego Pavia’s 250+ yards passing with only four incompletions and his 20 runs for 56 yards to avoid negative plays. They also averaged got points when they were in scoring range, finishing with 6 trips past the 40 and averaging 6.7 points per opportunity.
Tennessee went much faster, going through 14 possessions in their victory over the Tide. Nico Iamaleava barely completed 50% of his passes for not even 200 yards (plus an interception!) but, instead, relied on running back Dylan Sampson to run 26 times for 139 yards. The Vols were much sloppier than Vandy was, punting four times and going 1-3 in field goal range. But they created enough opportunities that their talent had time to figure it out and, eventually, win by 7.
The TL;DR on this is that you can EITHER go super slow, avoid turnovers, and finish with points every time (specifically touchdowns) OR go warp speed and create enough opportunities that the mistakes don’t hit as hard and your offense has tons of shots at getting points.
I think we all know which one of those styles fits Mizzou the best, but it’s also the one with the smallest margin for error.
Be Efficient on the Ground
Missouri running back Marcus Carroll (9) rushes for yardage in the third quarter of a game against Auburn on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, at Faurot Field in Columbia. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)
The Tide are still a menace in run defense but much less than you’re used to. 42nd in rushing success rate, 41st in opportunity rate, 130th (!) in power success rate, 99th in stuff rate…these numbers are absurd, and would normally be Top 10 across the board in previous years. Teams don’t break off huge gains on the ground but they are able to mostly avoid negative plays and get 3-4 yards per pop. Mizzou needs that to happen here, looking for a 40% success rate on the ground.
Create Explosives Through The Air
Missouri wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. (1) makes a catch for a gain in the fourth quarter of a game against Auburn on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, at Faurot Field in Columbia.(CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)
Alabama plays man defense a lot more than most college defenses do, currently sitting at 52.2% of their coverage usage (as opposed to the national average of 36.9%). They do this because, historically, they’ve had elite defensive backs and could out talent most offenses. This group is still talented to be sure, but not nearly as much as it was under Saban. And that much man coverage can create opportunities for busts and receivers to shake their coverage loose, in which case Brady Cook needs to see it and deliver. He certainly did against Auburn last week when the stubbornly refused to get out of man coverage on the final drive! Explosive pass plays is the one big weakness Alabama has so Mizzou needs to hit them with at least nine (9) explosive pass plays for the game.
FINISH. YOUR. DANG. DRIVES.
Mizzou doesn’t move like Tennessee so they’re going to need to take a page from Vanderbilt and nearly maximize each scoring opportunity they get. Blake Craig is great from within (the still impressive) 40 yards but trotting him out for 40+ and 50+ is a.) not worth it, and b.) not going to win this game. Even for all of Bama’s warts Missouri deserves to be a heavy underdog here and must play with an underdog mentality to keep pressure on the Tide and maximize every scoring opportunity possible. Let’s shoot for 6 scoring opportunities with at least 4 points per opportunity, which goes adds up to 24 points.
When Alabama Has the Ball
Missouri’s Defense vs. Alabama’s Offense
Again, victors over Alabama this year had two different ways in which they beat the Tide.
Vanderbilt’s defense benefitted from a slow offense playing ball control but didn’t do much to stop Alabama outright, managing to only force two punts and featuring an extremely low havoc percentage of 17%. Of Alabama’s 9 possessions they scored a touchdown on five of them; there were two punts and then two turnovers to round out the rest, and one of the turnovers was returned for a touchdown.
Tennessee benefitted from having the 3rd-best defense in the world right now, bottling up the Bama running game to 75 yards on 2.2 per carry (counting sacks) and forcing Jalen Milroe to throw 45 passes with barely a 55% completion rating. Their 24% havoc rate – including NINE tackles for loss – was an imperative aspect of that but they also turned Bama over twice via interception, including on the Tide’s last possession of the game.
Missouri’s defense is much better than Vanderbilt’s but not nearly as elite as Tennessee’s, but regardless of caliber, I think it’s clear what Mizzou needs to do.
HAVOC!
Auburn running back Jeremiah Cobb (23) gets tackled by the Missouri defense on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, at Faurot Field in Columbia. (MICHAEL BANIEWICZ/ROCK M NATION)
Passes defensed. Tackles for loss. Sacks are cool, too, but that’s not really what this defense does. Regardless of how they do it, this defense needs to be aggressive and throw Alabama off of what it wants to do and keep them uncomfortable. I’m thinking at least a 28% havoc rate would be good here.
TURNOVERS!
Missouri defensive end Zion Young (9) celebrates a defensive stop in the third quarter of a game against Auburn on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, at Faurot Field in Columbia. (CAL TOBIAS/ROCK M NATION)
Underdogs needs to create opportunities for themselves and this is the best way to do it. Mizzou’s defense needs to create them and Mizzou’s offense needs to avoid them but I’d say being at least +2 in turnover margin at the end of the game should be enough.
Conclusion
I don’t know what the CFP committee is going to think but its clear the AP and Coaches Poll voters do not value the wins Mizzou has so far. A loss against Alabama would knock them out of the Top 25 and, potentially, never have them return to the Top 15. Meanwhile, a win here would give the powers that be a name brand victory for Mizzou and keep the Tigers’ quest for a Playoff berth alive.
But from a game standpoint, I’m really hoping we see some aggression and creativity here. Mizzou cannot afford to play the safe, ball-control offense here without getting creative in how they do it. I’m talking double passes, multiple guys taking wildcat quarterback snaps, unbalanced lines…something that hasn’t been shown that is unique and offers a chance for confusion and mismatches. Running Nate Noel off tackle or Marucs Carroll up the middle isn’t going to cut it, and if the running game can’t get going then Luther and Theo will be bracketed all night to no avail. Let’s hope that Kirby can keep Bama’s defense off balance and on their heels to show that this offense can reach the potential we all thought it had in the preseason.
Welcome to the most important game of the year. Go win.
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